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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

I'm adding PLTR also, but I believe Friday is a lock up expiration so will wait until then cuz I'm greedy. I have no idea if that will impact the sp, but seems like there might be some selling pressure. Dunno.

 
Updated Holdings after a fun day. 🚀

Unity Software (stock and call options)

IPOE (stock and call options)

DKNG (holding for tax reasons, will trim in April after 12 months)

SI  🚀

EXPC 

CCIV 🚀

HZAC 

TIGR - Lupton holding 

FUSE - added based on Lupton recommendation

LEAP - added based on mgmt team, connections, Robinhood rumors, low entry price

Sells:  BTC sold at 49.x last night...couldn't pass up those gains, looking to re-enter on a dip)

About 30% cash now.

Strategy:  continue looking for small caps and SPACs that can run and a BTC dip.

Warning:  Be advised this is a high risk/high reward portfolio, 

 
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TripItUp said:
LUCID isn't going to agree to an unfair or below market valuation.   
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Then the CCIV shares are wildly overpriced. For instance, if they think they are worth $60B, which is not outlandish at all considering their hype, the $2B from the CCIV would be 1/30th the market cap. I do think if they went IPO, $60B would be easy, so if CCIV is at $50, that implies a $300B market cap. That won’t jive at all.

Had Lucid merged right away then I could see the lower valuation and the high CCIV price as $50 would imply a $60B market cap.

I have a feeling the people in at this level could get creamed because I agree that I see no reason for Lucid to go public at a $12B market cap. It would be stupid on their part to give away 16% of their company if they only had to give away 3-4% for the same amount of cash.

 
stbugs said:
Then the CCIV shares are wildly overpriced. For instance, if they think they are worth $60B, which is not outlandish at all considering their hype, the $2B from the CCIV would be 1/30th the market cap. I do think if they went IPO, $60B would be easy, so if CCIV is at $50, that implies a $300B market cap. That won’t jive at all.

Had Lucid merged right away then I could see the lower valuation and the high CCIV price as $50 would imply a $60B market cap.

I have a feeling the people in at this level could get creamed because I agree that I see no reason for Lucid to go public at a $12B market cap. It would be stupid on their part to give away 16% of their company if they only had to give away 3-4% for the same amount of cash.
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somewhat agree which is why I plan on taking profits after the surge from the announcement peaks.  Remember that this is not a rational market.  People/institutions are buying news and momentum, not fundamentals.

 
TripItUp said:
somewhat agree which is why I plan on taking profits after the surge from the announcement peaks.  Remember that this is not a rational market.  People/institutions are buying news and momentum, not fundamentals.
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Appreciate the thoughts on $CCIV@stbugs , and Trip while I had planned on holding through the expected surge you guys have me thinking I’d be wise to take some profits. And I am looking to free some cash.

 
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I have a question as a total novice... I bought some SNDL today and I am reading that they did a $1 billion dollar shelf offering... I’ve read numerous things that say that a positive and numerous things that say it’s a negative. What does it mean and should I hold or sell?

 
Nigel said:
Appreciate the thoughts on $CCIV@stbugs , and Trip while I had planned on holding through the expected surge you guys have me thinking I’d be wise to take some profits. And I am looking to free some cash.
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I’m not saying sell now because he’s right, these stocks can go well past a good value. I’m probably more risk averse after having done so well the past year+. I had over $150k of CYDY when it hit $10 (not all profit, but a lot was) although it was only there for an hour, but that was really effing stressful and I certainly lost a good chunk of the paper profits. I still feel like I hit a HR last year so now I’m aggressive but need to believe in the company so I don't risk losing big. My stomach for that much risk is gone now! After I hit my real goal, I may create a fun money pot again.

I see CCIV and think it’s absurd. I think 95% of the investors don’t get the math and the realization that the merger will be based on the $10 per share IPO money raised. The run to $50 is kind of meaningless because the SPAC doesn’t have $10B in cash, they got $2B and the shares got bid up but the share price of CCIV now is 100% meaningless to the merger. That’s what’s really interesting and also funny. GME was wild but the market cap of the company was 100% based on the share price. Lucid’s market cap is not based on the current share price at all. If they strike a good deal for Lucid, the folks running the SPAC and their friends putting in the extra PIPE money (about $1.5B, almost what the IPO raised) are buying at the $10 a share price. If you buy CCIV at $50, you are paying 5x the price as the PIPE investors.

OK, enough from me on math! Goodnight all.

 
tuffnutt said:
I have a question as a total novice... I bought some SNDL today and I am reading that they did a $1 billion dollar shelf offering... I’ve read numerous things that say that a positive and numerous things that say it’s a negative. What does it mean and should I hold or sell?
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Honestly, it’s terrible. While they are raising capital at a high share price (good for the company), the people buying the convertible debt/offerings are usually getting discounts and it’s adding a huge dilution of shares. The big thing is will they use the money well. Seems like they are shifting business plans as well, not really a good sign. If you are day trading it could be an impact but not as big. Long term it’s likely not good and if they aren’t successful pivoting, the share price will tank because there’s so many more shares.

From a Motley Fool article/ad:

Sundial Growers has undertaken a number of share issuances and debt-to-equity swaps since the end of September, resulting in an increase of over 1 billion outstanding shares. Aside from its highly dilutive activity, Sundial is in the midst of a business transition from the wholesale side of the cannabis business to retail. This shift won't happen overnight, and it promises to yield ongoing operating losses in the meantime.

 
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stbugs said:
Honestly, it’s terrible. While they are raising capital at a high share price (good for the company), the people buying the convertible debt/offerings are usually getting discounts and it’s adding a huge dilution of shares. The big thing is will they use the money well. Seems like they are shifting business plans as well, not really a good sign. If you are day trading it could be an impact but not as big. Long term it’s likely not good and if they aren’t successful pivoting, the share price will tank because there’s so many more shares.

From a Motley Fool article/ad:

Sundial Growers has undertaken a number of share issuances and debt-to-equity swaps since the end of September, resulting in an increase of over 1 billion outstanding shares. Aside from its highly dilutive activity, Sundial is in the midst of a business transition from the wholesale side of the cannabis business to retail. This shift won't happen overnight, and it promises to yield ongoing operating losses in the meantime.
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Thanks! That is kinda what I thought. Thank you for the help!

 
Nick Vermeil said:
@hooter311, a week ago RIOT was trading about $10 less than GTBC.  Now that's reversed.  Is that what you would have expected?  Any thoughts on the short term outlook of how they will trade in relation to each other?  

I'm in both so just curious.  
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So hard to predict, a lot of it is going to come down to how their suppliers come through this summer.  I believe riot has at least 8,000 new antminers from bitmain to be delivered and installed between now and the end of July.

Gbtc doesnt have to pay any employees or do anything strategy wise, just buy and hold.  It doesn't have the massive potential that the miners do, but it can't implode on itself either.

Gbtc is the tortoise, riot and Mara are the hares.

But unreliable hares with like crack addictions and subpar credit ratings...

 
Too busy to follow today. CCIV you and me need to get a room.

Well past double up territory will shave off close to half tomo.

No idea who to thank in here but you know who you are.

MARA comments up thread have me nervous. Will take some profits tomo.

Love this thread. 

 
Sand said:
Speaking of CCIV, CVII has just opened.  In my quest for high quality managers Michael Kline seems to now be a good one thanks to CCIV.  I hope CVII gets a nice push just thanks to the name, so want to jump in early.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/lldg7a/recommendation_buy_churchill_capital_corp_vii_dd_2/

Probably selling JOFFU and RMGCU to fund this as I have too many of these things.  SFBayDuck, talk me out of selling those!
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Added CVII to my watchlist this past weekend. I want to get in below $11 and was planning to do so with my upcoming deposit on Friday, but all this hype might require me to act sooner. Hell, it might open above $11 tomorrow. I’m also eyeing CPUH.U, another r/SPACs favorite — they’re targeting a healthcare tech company and seem to have a good management team as well. 

 
caustic said:
Added CVII to my watchlist this past weekend. I want to get in below $11 and was planning to do so with my upcoming deposit on Friday, but all this hype might require me to act sooner. Hell, it might open above $11 tomorrow. I’m also eyeing CPUH.U, another r/SPACs favorite — they’re targeting a healthcare tech company and seem to have a good management team as well. 
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CVII is below $11 now but will probably open at or above it tomorrow. 

 
caustic said:
Added CVII to my watchlist this past weekend. I want to get in below $11 and was planning to do so with my upcoming deposit on Friday, but all this hype might require me to act sooner. Hell, it might open above $11 tomorrow. I’m also eyeing CPUH.U, another r/SPACs favorite — they’re targeting a healthcare tech company and seem to have a good management team as well. 
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This is the game now and the right line of thinking...do your DD on these and you can spot the ones that could fly early. 

This is the best game in town IMHO...not a lot of downside risk if you get in early.  There are other cheat codes too, like looking at premiums and following the news diligently on Twitter.   

 
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The General said:
Sand said:
Probably selling JOFFU and RMGCU to fund this as I have too many of these things.  SFBayDuck, talk me out of selling those
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@SFBayDuck

Adding DHHCU to this list. Think that was yours? Any latest on these?
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Sell away, if you have another you like better.  We're all just making semi-educated guesses at which ones might pop, based on past history, management team, and stated acquisition focus.  

The General I do have DHHCU, primarily because their first was Lordstown Motors, which even with the recent pullback has been one of my bigger SPAC winners.  Haven't heard any news, but it's only been public since 1/26.

I kind of find myself wanting to split my bets between more of these to increase my chances of hitting a winner.  I won't win as big, but it ups the odds of hitting.

 
SFBayDuck said:
Sell away, if you have another you like better.  We're all just making semi-educated guesses at which ones might pop, based on past history, management team, and stated acquisition focus.  

The General I do have DHHCU, primarily because their first was Lordstown Motors, which even with the recent pullback has been one of my bigger SPAC winners.  Haven't heard any news, but it's only been public since 1/26.

I kind of find myself wanting to split my bets between more of these to increase my chances of hitting a winner.  I won't win as big, but it ups the odds of hitting.
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Thanks. I try to follow in here but miss a ton of info and wanted to make sure the red sell light wasn’t put out on any of these.

I’m going to be doing some moving around some funds from in next couple days.

Any other SPACs you had on your radar that you wouldn’t mind sharing would be appreciated! 

 
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