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12 minutes ago, Desert_Power said:

Adding a couple pennies of my own:

If the Fed starts raising rates sharply, like they did prior the tech crash, then naturally a lot of these companies will take a valuation hit.  The specific businesses you list though are (mostly) real businesses that are growing sales at a very high rate. The underlying trends may slow down when the world really reopens, but I don't think they really reverse. 

When I think of bubbles I think the obvious one is crypto. Bitcoin is a speculative asset that will never have cash flows. It isn't going to be the medium of exchange. Companies are taking out debt to put it on their balance sheets. That is pure speculation.

I think this is interesting to assume that when the world opens up that these stocks will slow down. If the economy picks up, I am not sure why those companies wouldn’t potentially pick up as well. How many companies have put software projects or moving to the cloud on hold? How many people are sticking in their 9 to 5 jobs to have security right now? How many people are still struggling day to day and aren’t spending as much as they might next year? Will they take the money from their new job and run to the mall to spend it or just log on to Amazon or Shopee?

Some companies like Zoom owe a huge amount to people being locked up and maybe they won’t grow as fast becaus they already did, but companies that sell innovative products may be growing fast but they still may have potential clients holding off right now.

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Trying to time bottoms is very hard. If you believe in the company long term I feel this price is a very strong entry point long term. Set it and forget for a while. When it doubles....take your

I will make a wager. If this stock hits $420.69 before this earnings call on March 31st, I will pass out 100 FBG subscriptions to the gents in the stock thread.

sponks

26 minutes ago, Desert_Power said:

If the Fed starts raising rates sharply, like they did prior the tech crash, then naturally a lot of these companies will take a valuation hit.  The specific businesses you list though are (mostly) real businesses that are growing sales at a very high rate. The underlying trends may slow down when the world really reopens, but I don't think they really reverse. 

Of course they're real companies.  So were AOL, Yahoo, Netscape, AskJeeves, etc.

You could make a pretty reasonable case that something like Overstock should be worth 3 or 4 times what it was worth last year.  The problem is it is currently worth 100x what it was worth last year.  100x!

It's not worth 100x because their sales are 100x or even projected to be 100x in any of ours or our children's lifetimes, it's 100x because the market decided "OMG people are going to buy more stuff at home now quick everyone gobble up every online retailer stock or you're gonna miss it!!".

Overstock's business could 5x from where it was last year and it would still be horribly overvalued and have 90% downside from its "safe" $90 floor it just settled into after the pullback.

Again, I'm not saying this is going to happen, I am just saying this is what the bubble looks like if the bubble is real, imo.  The bubble is not a 20% correction that bounces back in 3 months (which granted, this "correction" is what I think we're in, not the bubble). The bubble is all of these companies ran on momentum and greed and eventually people realize that and race to gtfo of the netscape of online retailers or the AskJeeves of genetics.

ETA: With the dot com bubble the Nasdaq crashed 80% off its highs.  10 years later it was still down 50% off the dot com highs.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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The bulls bought the bitcoin dip.

 

I'll feel a lot better if it can retain trillion dollars asset status at right around 54k.

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I think this is interesting to assume that when the world opens up that these stocks will slow down. If the economy picks up, I am not sure why those companies wouldn’t potentially pick up as well. How many companies have put software projects or moving to the cloud on hold? How many people are sticking in their 9 to 5 jobs to have security right now? How many people are still struggling day to day and aren’t spending as much as they might next year? Will they take the money from their new job and run to the mall to spend it or just log on to Amazon or Shopee?

Some companies like Zoom owe a huge amount to people being locked up and maybe they won’t grow as fast becaus they already did, but companies that sell innovative products may be growing fast but they still may have potential clients holding off right now.

As a technology sales exec, this is absolutely true. It's by no means across the board, some industries are obviously more hit than others (had a call with a small airline today, they're scraping to find any budget on net new spend), and it depends on what you're selling and whether it directly contributes to revenue or accelerating digital transformation.  But there is no doubt that a lot of companies have put projects on hold.

Now based just on my experience at my current company it's getting better with large enterprises the past few months, while my mid-market colleagues are still dealing with companies reluctant to fund new projects.  

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I had the best two day trading in my life rolling hard in and out of AMC the past two days (buying hard at $5.75 this past Friday). 

For those inclined, I think AMC is still poised to move up. It was shorted heavily the last few weeks (my take at least when you see massive shares trading in 1 minute). They report earnings tomorrow after hours and the short interest report is due after hours as well. But the main reason I expect this stock to be a big volume leader again tomorrow is the number of calls that are in the clear tonight.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/options?p=AMC&straddle=true

If this company has been shorted like I believe it has, this many calls coming in is troublesome. The earnings report won't be special as the company bled out during the pandemic, but their ability to raise money because of their meme stock rise saved this company from near-term doom. They now sit on a decent pile of money and don't owe the warrant money back until 2025.

With the tech selloff happening across the industry, the hedge funds that were heavily shorting AMC appeared to leave today. There were a couple smash moves, but then very quick recoveries. It looked like shorts trying to get out.

I also think GME is setting up for an explosive move upward. 

2021 - The year of Meme stock investing. What a ride.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by David Dodds
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1 hour ago, randall146 said:

The default is daylong, but you can set limit orders as instant, daylong, or open until filled (or canceled). 

So if I have a current, good until filled order to sell XYZ at $10,I'm wondering what happens if someone bids $10 after hours. 

You'll have to re-enter for every after hours session.

1 hour ago, General Malaise said:

Don't you have a lot of bugs? 

Dude, we'd rather not discuss Cappy's genitals here.

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Of course they're real companies.  So were AOL, Yahoo, Netscape, AskJeeves, etc.

You could make a pretty reasonable case that something like Overstock should be worth 3 or 4 times what it was worth last year.  The problem is it is currently worth 100x what it was worth last year.  100x!

It's not worth 100x because their sales are 100x or even projected to be 100x in any of ours or our children's lifetimes, it's 100x because the market decided "OMG people are going to buy more stuff at home now quick everyone gobble up every online retailer stock or you're gonna miss it!!".

Overstock's business could 5x from where it was last year and it would still be horribly overvalued and have 90% downside from its "safe" $90 floor it just settled into after the pullback.

Again, I'm not saying this is going to happen, I am just saying this is what the bubble looks like if the bubble is real, imo.  The bubble is not a 20% correction that bounces back in 3 months (which granted, this "correction" is what I think we're in, not the bubble). The bubble is all of these companies ran on momentum and greed and eventually people realize that and race to gtfo of the netscape of online retailers or the AskJeeves of genetics.

ETA: With the dot com bubble the Nasdaq crashed 80% off its highs.  10 years later it was still down 50% off the dot com highs.

I don't know much about Overstock, but it is actually only 14x its value one year ago  (6.46 to 88.14)

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Trimmed my holdings way back on SPACs afterhours last night and premarket this morning.

Current holdings

IPOE Call Options (4/16 expiration)

MAR Call Options (7/15 expiration)

MAR stock

QQQ - purchased mid-day, very large purchase

DKNG 

SI

45% Cash

 

I sold off ~15 SPACs for roughly a 10% loss...really took it in the shorts here despite making a fair amount on CCIV.  Sold Unity Call options, stock and IRDM.    I think the CCIV happenings really changed the SPAC game for the worse in the near term which is why I'm out...there are a few I may jump back in. 

Looking at everything tonight, but wanted to overhaul my portfolio. Tech looks playable for the first time in months hence my QQQ purchase.   I'm also looking at energy, crypto, back to normal/reopening and fintech.

Edited by TripItUp
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11 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Trimmed my holdings way back on SPACs afterhours last night and premarket this morning.

Current holdings

IPOE Call Options (4/16 expiration)

MAR Call Options (7/15 expiration)

MAR stock

QQQ - purchased mid-day, very large purchase

DKNG 

SI

45% Cash

 

I sold off ~15 SPACs for roughly a 10% loss...really took it in the shorts here despite making a fair amount on CCIV.  Sold Unity Call options, stock and IRDM.    I think the CCIV happenings really changed the SPAC game for the worse in the near term which is why I'm out...there are a few I may jump back in. 

Looking at everything tonight, but wanted to overhaul my portfolio. Tech looks playable for the first time in months hence my QQQ purchase.   I'm also looking at energy, crypto, back to normal/reopening and fintech.

You are going to make me look like a long term investor.

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1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

yeah, I've been more mobile than typical times...SI and DKNG the only long holdings.

You put in a ton of work this weekend fleshing out so stock acquisitions.  Props to you for not being stubborn, I went the other route and DCA'd down.

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3 minutes ago, The Man With No Name said:

Last 2 days and last week have given me a losing February. But 3 more days to turn that around. January was very good though.

S&P still up 4-5% for the month.  I'll likely lose ground this month.

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20 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

You put in a ton of work this weekend fleshing out so stock acquisitions.  Props to you for not being stubborn, I went the other route and DCA'd down.

Hope to get back into a few of those but now there are better values IMHO.

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12 minutes ago, Steeler said:

You didn't hold this long, do you still like Unity long term?

absolutely....I just wanted to get out and re-evaluate my positions and check if there was anything I liked more in the short term.   I have Unity in my retirement accounts so I'm a believer.

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2 hours ago, David Dodds said:

I had the best two day trading in my life rolling hard in and out of AMC the past two days (buying hard at $5.75 this past Friday). 

For those inclined, I think AMC is still poised to move up. It was shorted heavily the last few weeks (my take at least when you see massive shares trading in 1 minute). They report earnings tomorrow after hours and the short interest report is due after hours as well. But the main reason I expect this stock to be a big volume leader again tomorrow is the number of calls that are in the clear tonight.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/options?p=AMC&straddle=true

If this company has been shorted like I believe it has, this many calls coming in is troublesome. The earnings report won't be special as the company bled out during the pandemic, but their ability to raise money because of their meme stock rise saved this company from near-term doom. They now sit on a decent pile of money and don't owe the warrant money back until 2025.

With the tech selloff happening across the industry, the hedge funds that were heavily shorting AMC appeared to leave today. There were a couple smash moves, but then very quick recoveries. It looked like shorts trying to get out.

I also think GME is setting up for an explosive move upward. 

2021 - The year of Meme stock investing. What a ride.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I sold the last of my AMC.  5000 shares for a small win.  GME scares me, :ph34r:but i havnt been following it.  

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10 minutes ago, KGB said:

I sold the last of my AMC.  5000 shares for a small win.  GME scares me, :ph34r:but i havnt been following it.  

Me too. If I did anything with GME, I’d short it. But my cajones are not big or brass enough. 

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2 minutes ago, pecorino said:

Me too. If I did anything with GME, I’d short it. But my cajones are not big or brass enough. 

I followed it quite close on WSB before it was known nationwide on the news etc.

There were 2 big things.

1) the Chewy guy was taking over or having alot of input.

2) then there was the DD on the short squeeze.  More shares were shorted than are even available. So, it could moon.

If there is no more short squeeze, i'd be careful.  I cant believe GME didnt offer more stock.  Prob why the CEO is getting fired.

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37 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

absolutely....I just wanted to get out and re-evaluate my positions and check if there was anything I liked more in the short term.   I have Unity in my retirement accounts so I'm a believer.

If you don't mind, can you post the distinction in the future?  It helps those of us considering tailing to know if someone is talking about their "gambling" stocks they are swinging for the fences with or if it's their retirement account and they are retiring in a year.  I also read your post and thought you had bailed altogether on Unity.  Not being critical here, but if you are running different accounts with different objectives your posts would be even more valuable if you referenced which account you were referring to.  For simplicity since we know you well enough you could also say all my posts referring to my gambling account unless otherwise stated.  Honestly when you were posting allocations I thought you were referring to all your equities.

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Just now, BassNBrew said:

If you don't mind, can you post the distinction in the future?  It helps those of us considering tailing to know if someone is talking about their "gambling" stocks they are swinging for the fences with or if it's their retirement account and they are retiring in a year.  I also read your post and thought you had bailed altogether on Unity.  Not being critical here, but if you are running different accounts with different objectives your posts would be even more valuable if you referenced which account you were referring to.  For simplicity since we know you well enough you could also say all my posts referring to my gambling account unless otherwise stated.  Honestly when you were posting allocations I thought you were referring to all your equities.

Everything I post in here are my trading stocks.  Also, I don't consider it gambling, I think of trading as measured risk.  I never post my retirement stocks but there are many similarities at times.  My trading returns have outpaced retirement by a fair margin since the bottom last March.(40% ish I think)

No problem making it clear going forward.  I'll post my retirement holdings from time to time too.

 

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22 minutes ago, KGB said:

I sold the last of my AMC.  5000 shares for a small win.  GME scares me, :ph34r:but i havnt been following it.  

I tailed Dodds this evening on the AMC.  Small gamble to see if he's successfully transitioned from FF stats to stocks.

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4 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Everything I post in here are my trading stocks.  Also, I don't consider it gambling, I think of trading as measured risk.  I never post my retirement stocks but there are many similarities at times.  My trading returns have outpaced retirement by a fair margin since the bottom last March.(40% ish I think)

No problem making it clear going forward.  I'll post my retirement holdings from time to time too.

 

Thanks I follow too 😍

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I am super bullish on GME. Here is the my quick synopsis:

1. The Gaming industry is estimated between 150-200B annually.

2. Gamestop is the only true all-gaming retail space.

3. Ryan Cohen (the 36 year old whiz that founded Chewy.com and the biggest single Apple investor (owns $800M I believe) took a sizeable stake in  GameStop. He has been awarded 3 board seats. His Chewy CFO took a board seat and some internet stud from Amazon cloud is also joining the board.

4. You have to unthink what Gamestop is currently. New leadership and a complete reinvention of this company is about to take place.

5. The current market cap is about 3 Billion, but that seems tiny if this company becomes a major ecommerce site.

6. The Reddit forum made this a big meme, but there are people doing serious due diligence into this company.

7. The Gamestop  Powerup program mostly sucks, but it has 55 million members. Draftkings was adding users at $100+. This alone supports a lot larger valuation.

8. Tons of hedge funds were shorting this company. As someone who started watching this stock very closely when it went below $100, the strength of the moves down implies giant shorting strategy to crush this stock.

9. When have you see the markets close down for BUYING only? A few hedge funds were facing the VW-like short squeeze. The volume hasn't been strong enough to think all the shorting has disappeared. Just the opposite. More shorts have copied Melvin's positions.

10. The Reddit dude that made $17M on this stock bought 50,000 more shares this past Friday at $38 a share.

I am hloding a LOT of GME at a price of just over $45. I would love a semi-squeeze, but I am ok waiting this turn-around out for 2-3 years. I believe in Ryan Cohen. I don't even know his whole vision as it likely won't be discussed until after earnings in late March. But at a $3B market cap, I think the upside is literally through the roof. 

 

Edited by David Dodds
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4 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Everything I post in here are my trading stocks.  Also, I don't consider it gambling, I think of trading as measured risk.  I never post my retirement stocks but there are many similarities at times.  My trading returns have outpaced retirement by a fair margin since the bottom last March.(40% ish I think)

No problem making it clear going forward.  I'll post my retirement holdings from time to time too.

 

Thanks.  Much appreciated.  It helps knowing someone's perspective.  

Also I used "gambling" as an example as some here will post trades where they throw caution to the wind and comment as if they don't care losing their butler's weekly tip money.  Other's are posting suggestions from a much more conservative standpoint.  

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8 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I tailed Dodds this evening on the AMC.  Small gamble to see if he's successfully transitioned from FF stats to stocks.

It's already run a bunch (and I have profited on the upticks, etc), but if those calls come in above $7.00, it's going to run some more. I think earnings is not afterhours tomorrow (like I reported earlier). It's in early March now I believe. 

I am winding out of AMC (loved it way better at below $7.50), but am literally freerolling+ some of these shares in case we are indeed moon-bound.

Edited by David Dodds
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9 minutes ago, David Dodds said:

I am super bullish on GME. Here is the my quick synopsis:

1. The Gaming industry is estimated between 150-200B annually.

2. Gamestop is the only true all-gaming retail space.

3. Ryan Cohen (the 36 year old whiz that founded Chewy.com and the biggest single Apple investor (owns $800M I believe) took a sizeable stake in  GameStop. He has been awarded 3 board seats. His Chewy CFO took a board seat and some internet stud from Amazon cloud is also joining the board.

4. You have to unthink what Gamestop is currently. New leadership and a complete reinvention of this company is about to take place.

5. The current market cap is about 3 Billion, but that seems tiny if this company becomes a major ecommerce site.

6. The Reddit forum made this a big meme, but there are people doing serious due diligence into this company.

7. The Gamestop  Powerup program mostly sucks, but it has 55 million members. Draftkings was adding users at $100+. This alone supports a lot larger valuation.

8. Tons of hedge funds were shorting this company. As someone who started watching this stock very closely when it went below $100, the strength of the moves down implies giant shorting strategy to crush this stock.

9. When have you see the markets close down BUYING only? A few hedge funds were facing the VW-like short squeeze. The volume hasn't been strong enough to think all the shorting has disappeared. Just the opposite. More shorts have copied Melvin's positions.

10. The Reddit dude that made $17M on this stock bought 50,000 more shares this past Friday at $38 a share.

I am hloding a LOT of GME at a price of just over $45. I would love a semi-squeeze, but I am ok waiting this turn-around out for 2-3 years. I believe in Ryan Cohen. I don't even know his whole vision as it likely won't be discussed until after earnings in late March. But at a $3B market cap, I think the upside is literally through the roof. 

 

Amazon or Apple could take them out in one swoop if they weren't a gnat on an elephant's butt.  As Mister Wonderful says, they would be crushed like the cockroach they are.

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2 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Amazon or Apple could take them out in one swoop if they weren't a gnat on an elephant's butt.  As Mister Wonderful says, they would be crushed like the cockroach they are.

Ryan Cohen held his own against Amazon to own pet food. Chewy now has a $44B valuation. At GME's current price (and low market cap), I think this is actually a pretty safe company to own. New consoles (PS5, XBox, Switch) alone will ensure this company has strong sales once those companies can deliver the consoles timely. 

Edited by David Dodds
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6 minutes ago, David Dodds said:

It's already run a bunch (and I have profited on the upticks, etc), but if those calls come in above $7.00, it's going to run some more. I think earnings is not afterhours tomorrow (like I reported earlier). It's in early March now I believe. 

I am winding out of AMC (love it way better at below $7.50), but am literally freerolling+ some of these shares in case we are indeed moon-bound.

I took a small portion AH at $7.39.  How small....0.05%.  I'll probably exit on anything over $8 as the main reason I bought was believing earnings were tomorrow.  

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1 minute ago, BassNBrew said:

I took a small portion AH at $7.39.  How small....0.05%.  I'll probably exit on anything over $8 as the main reason I bought was believing earnings were tomorrow.  

sorry - I googled AMC earnings date and it said this:

02/25/2021

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 02/25/2021. The upcoming earnings date is derived from an algorithm based on a company's historical reporting dates. Our vendor, Zacks Investment Research, might revise this date in the future, once the company announces the actual earnings date.

but I saw someone else stating the date was changed. I apologize if I steered you wrong.

 

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2 minutes ago, David Dodds said:

Ryan Cohen held his own against Amazon to own pet food. Chewy now has a $44B valuation.

Talk to when they actually turn a profit like Amazon does.  Honestly you've never held your own when you haven't made a dime of profit.  Chewy would be prime example to be used against my thesis why we aren't in a bubble.  

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4 minutes ago, David Dodds said:

sorry - I googled AMC earnings date and it said this:

02/25/2021

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 02/25/2021. The upcoming earnings date is derived from an algorithm based on a company's historical reporting dates. Our vendor, Zacks Investment Research, might revise this date in the future, once the company announces the actual earnings date.

but I saw someone else stating the date was changed. I apologize if I steered you wrong.

 

CNBC is reporting the 25th.  I do think they are sitting on a pile of cash and an uptick is possible when people digest how much cash they made.  Heck, maybe they invested it in bitcoin.

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5 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Of course they're real companies.  So were AOL, Yahoo, Netscape, AskJeeves, etc.

You could make a pretty reasonable case that something like Overstock should be worth 3 or 4 times what it was worth last year.  The problem is it is currently worth 100x what it was worth last year.  100x!

It's not worth 100x because their sales are 100x or even projected to be 100x in any of ours or our children's lifetimes, it's 100x because the market decided "OMG people are going to buy more stuff at home now quick everyone gobble up every online retailer stock or you're gonna miss it!!".

Overstock's business could 5x from where it was last year and it would still be horribly overvalued and have 90% downside from its "safe" $90 floor it just settled into after the pullback.

Again, I'm not saying this is going to happen, I am just saying this is what the bubble looks like if the bubble is real, imo.  The bubble is not a 20% correction that bounces back in 3 months (which granted, this "correction" is what I think we're in, not the bubble). The bubble is all of these companies ran on momentum and greed and eventually people realize that and race to gtfo of the netscape of online retailers or the AskJeeves of genetics.

ETA: With the dot com bubble the Nasdaq crashed 80% off its highs.  10 years later it was still down 50% off the dot com highs.

Preach 

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1 minute ago, KGB said:

It's assumed the Chewy guy is going to bring it online.  how?  No one knows yet.

Gosh I hope MSFT and SNE and NTDOY don’t figure out how to let customers download games from the internet

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4 minutes ago, KGB said:

It's assumed the Chewy guy is going to bring it online.  how?  No one knows yet.

This is it in a nutshell. The people gambling on a turn-around led by Ryan Cohen. GME the way it is today is Blockbuster video. But I like the odds of a Ryan Cohen pivot and a database of 55 million players in a $200B industry where people are paying $250+ to get the consoles (pent up demand).

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Just now, McBokonon said:

Gosh I hope MSFT and SNE and NTDOY don’t figure out how to let customers download games from the internet

So what's funny is I still like having physical games yet I believe I'll be in the minority here soon. Console manufacturers need to start including realistic storage though. My wife's iPhone has more than half the storage as my ps5. WTF is that?

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