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Chevron or ExxonMobil long term?

Flip a coin. Mine landed XOM and bought some a little while ago. Should be a snoozefest for 20 years, racking up dividends. Good call either way.

Any other in the same class or are these the 2 big dogs? The dividend for BP or COP is intriguing but I worry they will be cut and could cause the stock to tank further.

CVX is already showing cap ex is being slashed and production is being cut. The Saudis won.

This was their intention.

It's playing out like I thought and consolidation will be coming all year. Hang in. Own the majors and collect your dividend. I think the dividends will hold on those two you mentioned.

In that case would XOM be the better choice or same issues all around? XOM looks like it's at a 16 P/E and a 4% dividend while CVX is at an 18 P/E but a 5% dividend.

Once you look a step smaller at COP and BP the dividend is at 8% but are losing $.

The safest play is XOM, but I like CVX a lot too. COP and BP are having some issues no doubt.

But $30 oil is unsustainable IMO. BP for major political reasons is going to hang on to this dividend as long as they can.

But even if one of both cut it some it is still going to pay a healthy yield. And the cut will be short lived IMO.

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Chevron or ExxonMobil long term?

Flip a coin. Mine landed XOM and bought some a little while ago. Should be a snoozefest for 20 years, racking up dividends. Good call either way.

Any other in the same class or are these the 2 big dogs? The dividend for BP or COP is intriguing but I worry they will be cut and could cause the stock to tank further.

CVX is already showing cap ex is being slashed and production is being cut. The Saudis won.

This was their intention.

It's playing out like I thought and consolidation will be coming all year. Hang in. Own the majors and collect your dividend. I think the dividends will hold on those two you mentioned.

In that case would XOM be the better choice or same issues all around? XOM looks like it's at a 16 P/E and a 4% dividend while CVX is at an 18 P/E but a 5% dividend.

Once you look a step smaller at COP and BP the dividend is at 8% but are losing $.

The safest play is XOM, but I like CVX a lot too. COP and BP are having some issues no doubt.

But $30 oil is unsustainable IMO. BP for major political reasons is going to hang on to this dividend as long as they can.

But even if one of both cut it some it is still going to pay a healthy yield. And the cut will be short lived IMO.

Or just go buy some XLE so you're chance of hitting or missing on one is lower.

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Chevron or ExxonMobil long term?

Flip a coin. Mine landed XOM and bought some a little while ago. Should be a snoozefest for 20 years, racking up dividends. Good call either way.

Any other in the same class or are these the 2 big dogs? The dividend for BP or COP is intriguing but I worry they will be cut and could cause the stock to tank further.

CVX is already showing cap ex is being slashed and production is being cut. The Saudis won.

This was their intention.

It's playing out like I thought and consolidation will be coming all year. Hang in. Own the majors and collect your dividend. I think the dividends will hold on those two you mentioned.

In that case would XOM be the better choice or same issues all around? XOM looks like it's at a 16 P/E and a 4% dividend while CVX is at an 18 P/E but a 5% dividend.

Once you look a step smaller at COP and BP the dividend is at 8% but are losing $.

The safest play is XOM, but I like CVX a lot too. COP and BP are having some issues no doubt.

But $30 oil is unsustainable IMO. BP for major political reasons is going to hang on to this dividend as long as they can.

But even if one of both cut it some it is still going to pay a healthy yield. And the cut will be short lived IMO.

Or just go buy some XLE so you're chance of hitting or missing on one is lower.

Good point.

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TODEM

Couldn't agree more with your posts over the last few pages. It's refreshing to see someone with sense on here. All I ever see is day trading, 3x leveraged funds, I just went to XX% of cash, this time it's different, blah blah and it provides some good entertainment. All I can think is let's see what your returns are, I doubt most people even know over the last 3, 5, 10 years. It's a great time to take advantage of solid blue chip companies. I try to teach my clients this and it's exciting when they call you wanting to buy in during these periods, instead of panicking.

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TODEM

Couldn't agree more with your posts over the last few pages. It's refreshing to see someone with sense on here. All I ever see is day trading, 3x leveraged funds, I just went to XX% of cash, this time it's different, blah blah and it provides some good entertainment. All I can think is let's see what your returns are, I doubt most people even know over the last 3, 5, 10 years. It's a great time to take advantage of solid blue chip companies. I try to teach my clients this and it's exciting when they call you wanting to buy in during these periods, instead of panicking.

Hey!!!

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TODEM

Couldn't agree more with your posts over the last few pages. It's refreshing to see someone with sense on here. All I ever see is day trading, 3x leveraged funds, I just went to XX% of cash, this time it's different, blah blah and it provides some good entertainment. All I can think is let's see what your returns are, I doubt most people even know over the last 3, 5, 10 years. It's a great time to take advantage of solid blue chip companies. I try to teach my clients this and it's exciting when they call you wanting to buy in during these periods, instead of panicking.

There's a place for all of these angles, or an amalgam of all of them. Anyone giddy or selling just one take or the entire opposite deserve equal skepticism. Education, prudence, and plain smarts will allow someone to be succesful at any or all of these strategies - and time has proven that. HTH

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The problem with XLE and these other ETFs is that they aren't really good proxies for oil. I mean...oil goes up X% and the ETFs only come along for 30% of the move if you are lucky.

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In fact, it is the opposite... More and more oil is coming online while demand is fizzling.

:bowtie:

Nice in and out SLB. Nobody is cutting production. The companies that survive after the mass bankruptcies will be huge opportunities.

Edited by fantasycurse42
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For those that are bullish...

I'm curious why? Job numbers are the only thing I can see as a positive right now, what else is there to like? Just looking for some perspective.

I missed the bullishness in 2009 when I had the chance to be retired by now.

The market dipped to crazy lows.

I wanted to be involved in the market.

This seemed like a good buying opportunity.

I'm more of a "long term" bull. Had so much liquid sitting in savings account over the years, It's nice to get it invested in a way that will produce more gains (until Bernie is elected and then it will go back in the savings)

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BP announced it would lay off 7K employees rather than touch the dividend.

I don't see BP cutting this dividend anytime soon.

Really tempted to take a position in this stock right now. Huge support level here in the 26-30 area...but if breaks that...were talking $20 a share?

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If crude hits under $50, at that point I think I'm just pouring huge bundles into UCO.

Yeah, it seems a damn good time. Better than buying 5k worth of LNCO 3 years ago at $37.50, and seeing it lose 2/3 of it's value lately... :topcat: Leaving it in my Roth, as I really can't see it going much lower. Yield is still over 10% even with their divy cut.

I'm always surprised. Most folks here say "I'm not a market timer!" But what they in fact do is attempt to time the market. Anyone buying oil here is just trying to time the market. It is what it is..you are how you invest.

Oil ($UCO or any other such ETF) is in a severe bearish trend. It's just a fact. And playing with an Ultra fnud where the main component is in a severe bear trend is outright foolish.

Why not recognize that fact and invest according to the trend?

That demands patience in the HERE & NOW. You MUST wait for the trend to bottom and turn. No one knows where that will be. Why relegate yourself to the fools errand of a market timer.

I've always got the feeling most of you think of me as a "timer" or a day trader. Neither is true. My "timing" is always based upon recognizing the early phase of a trend. The time frame may be different but the process is always the same.

Trend following is pretty simple. ( i saw the following paragraph last week and copied it down and modified it a bit, but this speaks to my exact feelings)

Trend Following is not based on a "prediction". It's not based on the idea of Buy and Hold Forever or the recommendation of an analysts. Trend following is a systematic decision-making process that doesn't involve discretion, guesses, gut feelings, or hunches. It’s not day trading or buy and hope. It doesn't involve passive indexing, in and out trading or fundamental analysis. No more 24 hour news cycles, daily turbulence or sensational hype. No black boxes or magic formulas either. Trend following is not a Holy Grail - sometimes there are winners and sometimes there are losers.

Trends are universal and exist everywhere. Like Summer trends into Winter- eventually bull markets trend into bear and back again into bull. Trend following never anticipates the beginning or the end of a trend. It only acts when the trend changes. There is no need to figure out why a market is trending...just follow. When you follow the trend you have a concrete method for determining when to buy' when to add; when to sell; and when to short.

I've always said "use fundamental analysis to help you chose what to invest in and trend analysis to determine when to invest in it." You might have the "what" down in regards to $UCO but definitely not the "when".

Sure today might be the bottom. Congratulations if it is. You might be the hero. But if it's not the bottom will likely suffer emotional distress over thge next days, weeks months...which will lead to poor decision making in the future. The truth is people are apt to get squeezed in a position where they think "forget the cheese just let me out of the trap." And they do so right at the worst moments. And that happens most often when the position is underwater from the get-go.

Be patient. This trend will turn and if you follow the trend you will still be able to secure a solid profit if not a home run.

Not a lot to say here anymore, but I wanted to check in. The thread has been a pretty good and entertaining read.

With that said - perhaps the above from Jan 2015 will provide a nice refresher.

For the record $UCO was $44.50 on the day of this post. A whole lot of money could have been made just following the trend, and on the other side - a whole lot of losses could of been avoided.

Good luck with all your investments!

Edited by siffoin
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If crude hits under $50, at that point I think I'm just pouring huge bundles into UCO.

Yeah, it seems a damn good time. Better than buying 5k worth of LNCO 3 years ago at $37.50, and seeing it lose 2/3 of it's value lately... :topcat: Leaving it in my Roth, as I really can't see it going much lower. Yield is still over 10% even with their divy cut.

I'm always surprised. Most folks here say "I'm not a market timer!" But what they in fact do is attempt to time the market. Anyone buying oil here is just trying to time the market. It is what it is..you are how you invest.

Oil ($UCO or any other such ETF) is in a severe bearish trend. It's just a fact. And playing with an Ultra fnud where the main component is in a severe bear trend is outright foolish.

Why not recognize that fact and invest according to the trend?

That demands patience in the HERE & NOW. You MUST wait for the trend to bottom and turn. No one knows where that will be. Why relegate yourself to the fools errand of a market timer.

I've always got the feeling most of you think of me as a "timer" or a day trader. Neither is true. My "timing" is always based upon recognizing the early phase of a trend. The time frame may be different but the process is always the same.

Trend following is pretty simple. ( i saw the following paragraph last week and copied it down and modified it a bit, but this speaks to my exact feelings)

Trend Following is not based on a "prediction". It's not based on the idea of Buy and Hold Forever or the recommendation of an analysts. Trend following is a systematic decision-making process that doesn't involve discretion, guesses, gut feelings, or hunches. It’s not day trading or buy and hope. It doesn't involve passive indexing, in and out trading or fundamental analysis. No more 24 hour news cycles, daily turbulence or sensational hype. No black boxes or magic formulas either. Trend following is not a Holy Grail - sometimes there are winners and sometimes there are losers.

Trends are universal and exist everywhere. Like Summer trends into Winter- eventually bull markets trend into bear and back again into bull. Trend following never anticipates the beginning or the end of a trend. It only acts when the trend changes. There is no need to figure out why a market is trending...just follow. When you follow the trend you have a concrete method for determining when to buy' when to add; when to sell; and when to short.

I've always said "use fundamental analysis to help you chose what to invest in and trend analysis to determine when to invest in it." You might have the "what" down in regards to $UCO but definitely not the "when".

Sure today might be the bottom. Congratulations if it is. You might be the hero. But if it's not the bottom will likely suffer emotional distress over thge next days, weeks months...which will lead to poor decision making in the future. The truth is people are apt to get squeezed in a position where they think "forget the cheese just let me out of the trap." And they do so right at the worst moments. And that happens most often when the position is underwater from the get-go.

Be patient. This trend will turn and if you follow the trend you will still be able to secure a solid profit if not a home run.

Not a lot to say here anymore, but I wanted to check in. The thread has been a pretty good and entertaining read.

With that said - perhaps the above from Jan 2015 will provide a nice refresher.

For the record $UCO was $44.50 on the day of this post. A whole lot of money could have been made just following the trend, and on the other side - a whole lot of losses could of been avoided.

Good luck with all your investments!

Hope you're well GB

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For those that are bullish...

I'm curious why? Job numbers are the only thing I can see as a positive right now, what else is there to like? Just looking for some perspective.

That's what I've been asking for a few weeks now.

SLB, I'd be curious to hear your take. Are these purchases you're making trades or investments?

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For those that are bullish...

I'm curious why? Job numbers are the only thing I can see as a positive right now, what else is there to like? Just looking for some perspective.

That's what I've been asking for a few weeks now.

SLB, I'd be curious to hear your take. Are these purchases you're making trades or investments?

Individual investments in companies I like long term. About 80% of my money that would be in mutual funds and such is on the sidelines.

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For those that are bullish...

I'm curious why? Job numbers are the only thing I can see as a positive right now, what else is there to like? Just looking for some perspective.

That's what I've been asking for a few weeks now.

SLB, I'd be curious to hear your take. Are these purchases you're making trades or investments?

Individual investments in companies I like long term. About 80% of my money that would be in mutual funds and such is on the sidelines.

Thx.

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GOOGL!!!

:hifive:

:hifive:

Been on the train since $510-ish, looks like $815 in after-hours.

Went above $840 in the after hours when they announced, now down below $760. Sick.

No kidding. My biggest position and way up but may have to push all in should it keep going down.

On the plus side, Bit Gold has been on a nice run.

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Melissa Lee is the hottest anchor on television right? God I love her.

Some Asian persuasion my man. She is cute indeed.

But as far as her investment brain?

She has been wrong on Apple for like.......forever. Such a bitter ##### about that stock. She has been a hater for years upon years.

She has zero clue about mid-stream companies and was quick to tell a guy from Tortoise MLP funds just today that "collect 3% while your down 20%".

Hey dumb ###.....you not going to stay down 20% in a mid stream once the market realizes they are not affected by crude prices....like at all. It is a baby out with the bath water scenario. You add more shares at these levels to dollar cost average it down and your getting paid well to wait.

The best Mid-Stream MLP's are still growing their dividends not cutting them. And their earnings are doing quite well (been resilient in fact) despite the downturn in oil.

BPL is down 22% in the last 52 weeks...but is paying a strong 8% yield at this price level and not cutting.

SEP is down 26% in the last 52 weeks but is paying 5.73% and raising every year.

She has no clue what she is talking about when it comes to mid-stream MLP's or stocks in general. Ignore her commentary. If you want to **ck her that's another story!! She is very cute. But simply a reporter.

Plus they have hotter ones IMO.

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