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I've pretty much just been selling short term covered calls on the existing stocks in my tax-deferred accounts for the premiums. Whenever I see green, I sell the call. Let it expire, and repeat. If it gets exercised, oh well. If I can't find a strike above my purchase price within a month or two, I don't do it.

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Still no panic, just slow and steady selling. What's going to stop the bleeding?

Janet striking a pretty dovish tone tomorrow would be a step.

It should help short term, but will it really make any difference longer term? If the economy is so dependent on Fed intervention, it clearly isn't doing very well, but the market is priced as if it is. There has been a disconnect for quite a while.

Yes. The Fed always intervenes in the economy at every rate level. It cannot persistently set the nominal short term rate too far above/below the natural equilibrium without other consequences. The natural rate has likely been negative for some time.

Realistically, how can they be much more dovish, and how will it improve the economy long term? If 7 years of ZIRP and several rounds of QE didn't fix things, what will?

If money injections are expected to be temporary they have little impact. If the Fed says they will not allow inflation to go over 2% they are telling the market QE's impact is temporary.

Money injections are always expected to be temporary. You can't expect her to change the mandate to 10% inflation and 2% unemployment or something, right? What should/can she say?

Bump for her speech again today. What can she say or do that will fundamentally change the economy for the better longer term?

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TSLA soaring!!!!!

:lol:

I read an article about Musk and his annual forecasts - historically over-promises and under-delivers. Basically he has never met a forecast from an earnings call with timelines, revenue, or delivery... Ever.

The market just loves Tesla. Long long long term I'm kinda neutral on them, but their valuation is just stupid. I read articles about analysts loving it too, but nobody ever has any justification for how they're valued.

They deliver an awful quarter and the stock soars bc the CEO comes out with inflated numbers (per usual), just something I want nothing to do on either side, no rhyme or reason to this one. What makes me chuckle a little more is that even if they met his inflated numbers, their valuation is still insanely silly.

ETA: If this was almost any other stock, I'd be shorting the #### out of it on this pop, not Tesla though... ELECTRIC CARS!!!11!! MUSK!!111!! GIGAFACTORY!!!!!

Edited by fantasycurse42
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We just need to rip the band aid off in one swoop, just a massive selloff... At least another 10% (maybe a little more), stocks will still be expensive, but at least more attractive.

I've been reading a lot commentary about the markets and the economy not always aligning... No #### geniuses - where was this astute analysis when the markets ran up about 300% since 2009? You only hear about it when the markets go down. Maybe the markets are pricing a little more reality in and hopium out, still a decent ways to go before reality and the market intersect. The problem is the permabulls are trying to prevent this.

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Debating a short on Twitter... Unless they get bought (and honestly, anyone who would buy them already has their audience), I don't see how they turn things around. This company will be worth $2-$5B in the next year.

Pretty sure I've bashed them in this thread before, but never acted on it. Starting to feel like an easy 20-30% here. This will be sub $10 at some point in the next 12 months.

Edited by fantasycurse42
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Debating a short on Twitter... Unless they get bought (and honestly, anyone who would buy them already has their audience), I don't see how they turn things around. This company will be worth $2-$5B in the next year.

Pretty sure I've bashed them in this thread before, but never acted on it. Starting to feel like an easy 20-30% here. This will be sub $10 at some point in the next 12 months.

If they can execute on integrating Periscope and making the Twitter the go-to place for live, streaming, user-initiated news and pop culture, they'll be exciting. Big if, but I'm not leaving them for dead yet.

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Debating a short on Twitter... Unless they get bought (and honestly, anyone who would buy them already has their audience), I don't see how they turn things around. This company will be worth $2-$5B in the next year.

Pretty sure I've bashed them in this thread before, but never acted on it. Starting to feel like an easy 20-30% here. This will be sub $10 at some point in the next 12 months.

If they can execute on integrating Periscope and making the Twitter the go-to place for live, streaming, user-initiated news and pop culture, they'll be exciting. Big if, but I'm not leaving them for dead yet.

How can you have a CEO who is a CEO at another company? I'd dump both companies personally.

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Sorry, wasn't saying you own either, just that a multiple company CEO is a bad play for investors IMO. I mean look at my bashing of Tesla above.

A CEO is paid enough where he should basically have one responsibility in life beyond his family, his shareholders.

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Sorry, wasn't saying you own either, just that a multiple company CEO is a bad play for investors IMO. I mean look at my bashing of Tesla above.

A CEO is paid enough where he should basically have one responsibility in life beyond his family, his shareholders.

All the great inventors had narrow focus.

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Rumor that OPEC may agree to cut production sends the Dow up ~200 points in 20 minutes. Unfortunately it's still down over 200 on the day...

Nobody is cutting production... I've been on this ship for a year now, not abandoning now.

The Saudi's are getting close to their goals - chaos, bankruptcies, etc - No chance in hell they're cutting when they've held out for this long and are so close to their objectives, zero. I think they can weather the storm. If the Saudis don't cut, nobody else will, therefore there will be no cuts.

Edited by fantasycurse42
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Rumor that OPEC may agree to cut production sends the Dow up ~200 points in 20 minutes. Unfortunately it's still down over 200 on the day...

Nobody is cutting production... I've been on this ship for a year now, not abandoning now.

The Saudi's are getting close to their goals - chaos, bankruptcies, etc - No chance in hell they're cutting when they've held out for this long and are so close to their objectives, zero. I think they can weather the storm. If the Saudis don't cut, nobody else will, therefore there will be no cuts.

My bet is they wait for Oklahoma storage to fill up +7 days, then cut.

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FYI from Cramer

You want to know how to crater an entire stock market? Then simply listen to what Bob Dudley had to say yesterday.

The CEO of BP (BP) said he was "very bearish for the first half of the year."
How bearish? "In the second half, every storage tank and swimming pool in the world is going to be full and fundamentals are going to kick in. The market will start balancing in the second half of the year."
That means, to me, that we will be hard pressed to stop the 1986 scenario, when oil fell from $26.53 in the first week of January to $10 by the end of March.
Unbelievable.
You add that to the amazing numbers from RBN about natural gas -- record surge in production this year and warm weather that easily could take natural gas to record lows -- then you have a situation when only the strongest survive.
That's part one.
Part two is when Rio Tinto (RIO) scraps its progressive dividend because of lower commodity prices and forecasts no let-up whatsoever in 2016. Sam Walsh, the CEO, says the distressed players will not only include junior and mid-tier firms, it will now be the majors. Yet, "at this stage there is nothing out there on the market that interests us."
In other words, both oil and other commodities are going down, but one of the two companies with the biggest balance sheets to buy -- the other being BHP Billiton (BHP) -- isn't interested in saving anyone.
The cavalry is not coming for either group, oil or copper, iron, and nickel.
That's why the futures are down.
That's why I expect they could stay down, even as the earnings overall in the last 24 hours have been better than expected.
Oil and mining are saying "so what." It's resonating right into the rest of the market, because the banks aren't ready for this.
Losses as far as the eye can see.

I have been looking at BP...but it just keeps making new lows.

I can imagine oil going to $10....just because anything is possible. But...can it really go down to $10? Jesus.

Edited by SIDA!
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I might take a heavy position in SCO next week when the EIA reports come out. By then, the blatantly untrue rumors of cuts will be fading and reality and fundamentals will be settling back in. Looking for a possible HR on this, still debating.

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100 FAZ at $62.30

Another 100 at $60.55 for 200 at $61.43. Just thought I would take a taste to see if the rally sells in the afternoon again.

I am curious. What time frame do you trade off of?

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FYI from Cramer

You want to know how to crater an entire stock market? Then simply listen to what Bob Dudley had to say yesterday.

The CEO of BP (BP) said he was "very bearish for the first half of the year."

How bearish? "In the second half, every storage tank and swimming pool in the world is going to be full and fundamentals are going to kick in. The market will start balancing in the second half of the year."

That means, to me, that we will be hard pressed to stop the 1986 scenario, when oil fell from $26.53 in the first week of January to $10 by the end of March.

Unbelievable.

You add that to the amazing numbers from RBN about natural gas -- record surge in production this year and warm weather that easily could take natural gas to record lows -- then you have a situation when only the strongest survive.

That's part one.

Part two is when Rio Tinto (RIO) scraps its progressive dividend because of lower commodity prices and forecasts no let-up whatsoever in 2016. Sam Walsh, the CEO, says the distressed players will not only include junior and mid-tier firms, it will now be the majors. Yet, "at this stage there is nothing out there on the market that interests us."

In other words, both oil and other commodities are going down, but one of the two companies with the biggest balance sheets to buy -- the other being BHP Billiton (BHP) -- isn't interested in saving anyone.

The cavalry is not coming for either group, oil or copper, iron, and nickel.

That's why the futures are down.

That's why I expect they could stay down, even as the earnings overall in the last 24 hours have been better than expected.

Oil and mining are saying "so what." It's resonating right into the rest of the market, because the banks aren't ready for this.

Losses as far as the eye can see.

I have been looking at BP...but it just keeps making new lows.

I can imagine oil going to $10....just because anything is possible. But...can it really go down to $10? Jesus.

"I can't imagine oil going down to $80..."

"I can't imagine oil going down to $50..."

"I can't imagine oil going down to $30..."

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100 FAZ at $62.30

Another 100 at $60.55 for 200 at $61.43. Just thought I would take a taste to see if the rally sells in the afternoon again.

I am curious. What time frame do you trade off of?

This one, today. Seems to be selling into strength in the afternoon. Just taking a flyer. All others have more of a long term view.

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100 FAZ at $62.30

Another 100 at $60.55 for 200 at $61.43. Just thought I would take a taste to see if the rally sells in the afternoon again.

I am curious. What time frame do you trade off of?

This one, today. Seems to be selling into strength in the afternoon. Just taking a flyer. All others have more of a long term view.

Sorry. I meant, do you trade off the five minute chart or something else to time your entries today?

I generally look at the five minute chart for entries and then scalp out of trades or hold longer based on my view of the market at higher time frames. For example, I am long SPY yesterday at the 181.90 area. Ever since the bull spike the market has been in a strong bull trend on the five minute chart. And this is the first time today that the market has come back to the 20 EMA. So I am hoping for second move up now.

We will see.

But...was curious if you were just trading off your gut or saw something in the chart you were trading off that caused you to buy at those two prices.

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100 FAZ at $62.30

Another 100 at $60.55 for 200 at $61.43. Just thought I would take a taste to see if the rally sells in the afternoon again.

I am curious. What time frame do you trade off of?

This one, today. Seems to be selling into strength in the afternoon. Just taking a flyer. All others have more of a long term view.

Sorry. I meant, do you trade off the five minute chart or something else to time your entries today?

I generally look at the five minute chart for entries and then scalp out of trades or hold longer based on my view of the market at higher time frames. For example, I am long SPY yesterday at the 181.90 area. Ever since the bull spike the market has been in a strong bull trend on the five minute chart. And this is the first time today that the market has come back to the 20 EMA. So I am hoping for second move up now.

We will see.

But...was curious if you were just trading off your gut or saw something in the chart you were trading off that caused you to buy at those two prices.

Just gut here which is almost always wrong on short term stuff.

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100 FAZ at $62.30

Another 100 at $60.55 for 200 at $61.43. Just thought I would take a taste to see if the rally sells in the afternoon again.

Out at $59.95 for a lost of $296.00. :confetti:

Sorry SLB... I liked the thought of what you were doing too, but apparently the global slowdown as well as oil glut was completely solved today.

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100 FAZ at $62.30

Another 100 at $60.55 for 200 at $61.43. Just thought I would take a taste to see if the rally sells in the afternoon again.

Out at $59.95 for a lost of $296.00. :confetti:

Sorry SLB... I liked the thought of what you were doing too, but apparently the global slowdown as well as oil glut was completely solved today.

He stepped right in front of a short covering rally.

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100 FAZ at $62.30

Another 100 at $60.55 for 200 at $61.43. Just thought I would take a taste to see if the rally sells in the afternoon again.

Out at $59.95 for a lost of $296.00. :confetti:

Sorry SLB... I liked the thought of what you were doing too, but apparently the global slowdown as well as oil glut was completely solved today.

He stepped right in front of a short covering rally.
Realized that which is why I bought when DOW was around +200. Thought there was a good chance there would be dumping in the afternoon.

Scalia dying (RIP) can't be good for the open Tuesday.

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100 FAZ at $62.30

Another 100 at $60.55 for 200 at $61.43. Just thought I would take a taste to see if the rally sells in the afternoon again.

Out at $59.95 for a lost of $296.00. :confetti:

Sorry SLB... I liked the thought of what you were doing too, but apparently the global slowdown as well as oil glut was completely solved today.

He stepped right in front of a short covering rally.
Realized that which is why I bought when DOW was around +200. Thought there was a good chance there would be dumping in the afternoon.

Scalia dying (RIP) can't be good for the open Tuesday.

Yeah, it does add to the growing list of 'uncertainties'.

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