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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I feel like I should jump in on some things but they keep going down. I own some IPOE, SKLZ and OPEN (sold all at $30, bought some back at $29. All down a ton now but I haven’t finished positions. Some are starting to get close to day 1 SPAC merger announcement prices. Lots of others like CRWD and FSLY looking interesting as well.

Well, maybe I should have just jumped instead of asking. I’m sure it’ll be bouncing around for a while. Just wondering if anyone else is seeing some solid opportunities.

It is nice, however, to maybe have a solid green day for once.

Still also wondering on my previous mention of DNMR. Did they miss expectations or say something wrong about the future to get them down 10-15% today?

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Trying to time bottoms is very hard. If you believe in the company long term I feel this price is a very strong entry point long term. Set it and forget for a while. When it doubles....take your

I will make a wager. If this stock hits $420.69 before this earnings call on March 31st, I will pass out 100 FBG subscriptions to the gents in the stock thread.

sponks

1 hour ago, NajehHejan said:

I have one account that is just getting killed. Last week I was close to capitulation and just selling off everything but a cooler head prevailed and I decided to hold. Fast forward a week and I’m probably down another 10-15%. I guess I ‘ll keep holding (you can’t lose if you don’t sell for a loss) but does anyone have confidence any of these will ever recover? Here are my total losses so far on these dogs.

 

ZOM – 16%

UWMC – 14%

PLTR –13%

BNGO -27%

CPNG – 6%

 

Oh, I hear ya. I'm singing the same tune.

OESX -30%

DM -49%

IPOE -29%

STMH -45%

PLTR -22%

GRAMF -31%

I should have capitulated last week too. I too struggle with most of these as 'long term' holds. 

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31 minutes ago, Todem said:

 

If you are overweighted like most people are in names like  AMZN, This is a great chance to take some profits and rebalance your portfolio into more defensive names. There has already been a clear rotation into value stocks.

 

 

:bowtie:  Just a note that I told you guys to sell this BowWow long before Todem did.

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20 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I get that but why does it affect them more? I get that tech stocks had just run more than the rest and a rotation was going to happen and at some point it will likely rotate back. I’m just not sure why inflation wouldn’t have the same affect on all stocks with the thought being that dividends for example not being as worth the risk when I can get a CD for the same interest rate.

Think it’s mainly because higher rates are due to the expectation of higher inflation. Higher inflation reduces the value of future money. A lot of the companies getting slammed are those who don’t have much in the way of earnings now and their valuation is based solely on their future earnings......the value of which is being reduced. 

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2 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Think it’s mainly because higher rates are due to the expectation of higher inflation. Higher inflation reduces the value of future money. A lot of the companies getting slammed are those who don’t have much in the way of earnings now and their valuation is based solely on their future earnings......the value of which is being reduced. 

PLTR

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4 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Think it’s mainly because higher rates are due to the expectation of higher inflation. Higher inflation reduces the value of future money. A lot of the companies getting slammed are those who don’t have much in the way of earnings now and their valuation is based solely on their future earnings......the value of which is being reduced. 

Can't they just raise their prices on their pretend sales?  Everyone else is raising prices.

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39 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

:bowtie:  Just a note that I told you guys to sell this BowWow long before Todem did.

This dog will be 4000 a share by year end lol!!!

However I am sure a lot of people are up 200-300 plus % and could use some diversification and this is a good time to do it with the markets hovering at all time highs.

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1 minute ago, Todem said:

This dog will be 4000 a share by year end lol!!!

However I am sure a lot of people are up 200-300 plus % and could use some diversification and this is a good time to do it with the markets hovering at all time highs.

I am in that group (+204%) but I just can’t bring myself to do it. Every day it sits in this 3000-3300 range I want to, but it is like giving up on a family member or something. Harder, actually. I’ve given up on some family lol. 
 

Big reason for that is because I also expect 4k by eoy. 

Edited by Capella
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23 minutes ago, Ridgeback said:

My buy for FLGT just tripped at $89.50. This should be interesting...

I added more today as well ($90). Also added to my UUUU position. 

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2 hours ago, stbugs said:

Ok, I know some of you in here are familiar with DNMR. I bought a small amount as a recommendation but still need to finish the position. It’s getting hammered today after announcing earning. It looks like based on their capacity and growth that next years P/S will be about 10, which for a growth of almost 50% looks really cheap. No idea what numbers were expected or if this is just sell the news regardless.

I wish I held off on adding partial positions over the past couple months as things kept moving down but it does feel oversold (not just DNMR) where buying now could be a great long term win once tech or growth stocks aren’t out of favor.

I hadn't realized earnings were yesterday until I saw it getting beat up this morning. Will want to look through their first real public report later. Already have a fairly big exposure with all the appreciation my initial stock/warrants.

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9 minutes ago, Todem said:

This dog will be 4000 a share by year end lol!!!

However I am sure a lot of people are up 200-300 plus % and could use some diversification and this is a good time to do it with the markets hovering at all time highs.

I honestly don’t think this is the time for diversification when the names you mention are down 15-20% and the rotation names are at all time highs. Also tech weights should be much better now that they are down and the rotation names are up. Basically I think that ship sailed

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10 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I honestly don’t think this is the time for diversification when the names you mention are down 15-20% and the rotation names are at all time highs. Also tech weights should be much better now that they are down and the rotation names are up. Basically I think that ship sailed

Don’t know if I agree there. Growth has outperformed value for a long time. The move to value stocks should last a lot longer than a couple months. 

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22 minutes ago, Capella said:

I am in that group (+204%) but I just can’t bring myself to do it. Every day it sits in this 3000-3300 range I want to, but it is like giving up on a family member or something. Harder, actually. I’ve given up on some family lol. 
 

Big reason for that is because I also expect 4k by eoy. 

Which would you save from drowning? Your AMZN stock or a dog?

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:
1 hour ago, fruity pebbles said:

Rising rates discounts future earnings which is a big component of a lot of tech stocks and their future growth. 

I get that but why does it affect them more?

Just basic valuation. The present value of future free cash flow goes down when the interest rate you discount it at goes up.

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1 hour ago, Todem said:

When interest rates rise it will cause these short term price movements and create long term opportunity to get into some names you never had, or wanted to add too.

At some point rates will stabilize and the adjustment to the economy will take shape and people will keep consuming long term. 

If you believe in this....you invest in this. For the long term. 

If you are overweighted like most people are in names like AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, FB etc etc. This is a great chance to take some profits and rebalance your portfolio into more defensive names. There has already been a clear rotation into value stocks.

Here are some names to consider to diversify your portfolio:

 

BA

CAT (has had a monster run but nibble here)

EXC

GIS

MCD

PEP

KO

PM

RTX

LMT

T

VZ

WMT

AMT

BMY

DEO

NKE

LLY

DE (it has had a monster run so I would nibble here and wait for a pull back to take a full position here)

CMI

GCV

MDU

PEO (to have a nice diversified oil/energy portfolio)

CVX - if you want to own big oil and own the stock

XOM - ditto

CYBR (has come down and this is a great cyber security name that has a nice upside from here)

GM (I am for the first time in a very long time saying yes to a car company. GM is well positioned and poised for a major multiple expansion over the next decade this is a great entry point IMO).

ADX - (A great growth closed end fund if you do not have a lot of funds to spread out. If you want to own big tech and some other great blue chip growth names....take a look at this fund)

 

Of course wee have a highly speculative names here:

 

BLDP

QS

Those are my top picks in hydrogen and EV.

 

Would PFE & GSK still be in the buy category?

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

I am in that group (+204%) but I just can’t bring myself to do it. Every day it sits in this 3000-3300 range I want to, but it is like giving up on a family member or something. Harder, actually. I’ve given up on some family lol. 
 

Big reason for that is because I also expect 4k by eoy. 

There is nothing wrong with selling half.....and diversifying your portfolio for the long term.

1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

I honestly don’t think this is the time for diversification when the names you mention are down 15-20% and the rotation names are at all time highs. Also tech weights should be much better now that they are down and the rotation names are up. Basically I think that ship sailed

I am going to respectively disagree. The ship has sailed on a short term trade. Not on a long term hold based on forward multiples, dividend growth and more importantly risk management of your overall portfolio. I am sure there are a lot of people heavily concentrated in the big tech names and they are up well over 175-300% depending when they got in. I am not going to sit and say wait to get back 15% when you have a clear opportunity to cash in some of those profits and lower your overall risk and also diversify your portfolio so you get a smoother ride moving forward. Part of being a long term investor is making sure you do not allow your portfolio to drift into a place where APPL, AMZN, GOOGL etc become 20% plus holdings in your overall portfolio. I am more conservative I guess than most in being disciplined to rebalance and trim after stocks have taken monster moves and I have held them for multiple years. Some will say bahhhhh humbug AAPL will never go down. Maybe so. But when it has that 20-30% down move (because it has in the past and it will again) and 25-30% of your portfolio is in that stock....oooof. You will get very upset, maybe have anxiety and also make some brutal bad decisions in a panic when your seeing your nest egg drop like a rock during times of extreme volatility in some names that you would consider household. And it happens across all sectors, make no mistake. But mitigating that high standard deviation (implied volatility) can go a long way to better financial health long term and also....yield, yield, yield. I like to have at least 3% yield in my large cap portfolio. That dividend compounding is the golden ticket to sustainable long term wealth. 

33 minutes ago, Freak Show said:

Would PFE & GSK still be in the buy category?

Yes....great long term dividend plays. Growth will be highly limited. But those are great income plays in the overall portfolio. The compounding alone on those stocks will be a nice long term investment. 

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11 minutes ago, Todem said:

There is nothing wrong with selling half.....and diversifying your portfolio for the long term.

I am going to respectively disagree. The ship has sailed on a short term trade. Not on a long term hold based on forward multiples, dividend growth and more importantly risk management of your overall portfolio. I am sure there are a lot of people heavily concentrated in the big tech names and they are up well over 175-300% depending when they got in. I am not going to sit and say wait to get back 15% when you have a clear opportunity to cash in some of those profits and lower your overall risk and also diversify your portfolio so you get a smoother ride moving forward. Part of being a long term investor is making sure you do not allow your portfolio to drift into a place where APPL, AMZN, GOOGL etc become 20% plus holdings in your overall portfolio. I am more conservative I guess than most in being disciplined to rebalance and trim after stocks have taken monster moves and I have held them for multiple years. Some will say bahhhhh humbug AAPL will never go down. Maybe so. But when it has that 20-30% down move (because it has in the past and it will again) and 25-30% of your portfolio is in that stock....oooof. You will get very upset, maybe have anxiety and also make some brutal bad decisions in a panic when your seeing your nest egg drop like a rock during times of extreme volatility in some names that you would consider household. And it happens across all sectors, make no mistake. But mitigating that high standard deviation (implied volatility) can go a long way to better financial health long term and also....yield, yield, yield. I like to have at least 3% yield in my large cap portfolio. That dividend compounding is the golden ticket to sustainable long term wealth. 

Yes....great long term dividend plays. Growth will be highly limited. But those are great income plays in the overall portfolio. The compounding alone on those stocks will be a nice long term investment. 

Do you have an updated version of "The List" that you posted at the first of the year?

I've spent the last three months flipping a lot of my higher volatile stuff into items on your list, which has done me very well.

So your advice has been spot-on. Much appreciated. :thumbup:

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3 minutes ago, JAA said:

Are you still targeting ~40 as an exit here?

$40 is the price target I have on it and then we will reevaluate. But yes....that is the target to at least unload the profit. 

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1 hour ago, Capella said:
1 hour ago, Todem said:

This dog will be 4000 a share by year end lol!!!

However I am sure a lot of people are up 200-300 plus % and could use some diversification and this is a good time to do it with the markets hovering at all time highs.

I am in that group (+204%) but I just can’t bring myself to do it. Every day it sits in this 3000-3300 range I want to, but it is like giving up on a family member or something. Harder, actually. I’ve given up on some family lol. 
 

Big reason for that is because I also expect 4k by eoy. 

I bought in at $1.6k.  Looking forward to $4k.

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3 hours ago, Todem said:

When interest rates rise it will cause these short term price movements and create long term opportunity to get into some names you never had, or wanted to add too.

At some point rates will stabilize and the adjustment to the economy will take shape and people will keep consuming long term. 

If you believe in this....you invest in this. For the long term. 

If you are overweighted like most people are in names like AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, FB etc etc. This is a great chance to take some profits and rebalance your portfolio into more defensive names. There has already been a clear rotation into value stocks.

Here are some names to consider to diversify your portfolio:

 

BA

CAT (has had a monster run but nibble here)

EXC

GIS

MCD

PEP

KO

PM

RTX

LMT

T

VZ

WMT

AMT

BMY

DEO

NKE

LLY

DE (it has had a monster run so I would nibble here and wait for a pull back to take a full position here)

CMI

GCV

MDU

PEO (to have a nice diversified oil/energy portfolio)

CVX - if you want to own big oil and own the stock

XOM - ditto

CYBR (has come down and this is a great cyber security name that has a nice upside from here)

GM (I am for the first time in a very long time saying yes to a car company. GM is well positioned and poised for a major multiple expansion over the next decade this is a great entry point IMO).

ADX - (A great growth closed end fund if you do not have a lot of funds to spread out. If you want to own big tech and some other great blue chip growth names....take a look at this fund)

 

Of course wee have a highly speculative names here:

 

BLDP

QS

Those are my top picks in hydrogen and EV.

 

I have one dog in my retirement in $SRE.  With the list above, how would you recommend approaching reallocation?  Currently in that retirement IRA is allocated in SRE (10%) GOOGL (10%), AMZN (30%), BA (10%), MSFT (20%), and WMT (20%)

Edit - this isnt my only retirement account.  AMZN is ~15% of my overall retirement.  All other retirement accounts are mutual funds

TIA!

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2 hours ago, Desert_Power said:
5 hours ago, stbugs said:

Ok, I know some of you in here are familiar with DNMR. I bought a small amount as a recommendation but still need to finish the position. It’s getting hammered today after announcing earning. It looks like based on their capacity and growth that next years P/S will be about 10, which for a growth of almost 50% looks really cheap. No idea what numbers were expected or if this is just sell the news regardless.

I wish I held off on adding partial positions over the past couple months as things kept moving down but it does feel oversold (not just DNMR) where buying now could be a great long term win once tech or growth stocks aren’t out of favor.

I hadn't realized earnings were yesterday until I saw it getting beat up this morning. Will want to look through their first real public report later. Already have a fairly big exposure with all the appreciation my initial stock/warrants.

It sounds like, from the transcript, they have basically doubled their plans for the facility they are building in Georgia. This raises additional questions about how it will be funded (either debt or dilution would be my guess).

The also announced 3 new customers (Mars, Barcardi, and one they wouldn't disclose).

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19 minutes ago, Desert_Power said:

It sounds like, from the transcript, they have basically doubled their plans for the facility they are building in Georgia. This raises additional questions about how it will be funded (either debt or dilution would be my guess).

The also announced 3 new customers (Mars, Barcardi, and one they wouldn't disclose).

Thanks. I understand the concern but it seems like too much demand is a great long term problem to have.

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2 hours ago, Todem said:

There is nothing wrong with selling half.....and diversifying your portfolio for the long term.

I am going to respectively disagree. The ship has sailed on a short term trade. Not on a long term hold based on forward multiples, dividend growth and more importantly risk management of your overall portfolio. I am sure there are a lot of people heavily concentrated in the big tech names and they are up well over 175-300% depending when they got in. I am not going to sit and say wait to get back 15% when you have a clear opportunity to cash in some of those profits and lower your overall risk and also diversify your portfolio so you get a smoother ride moving forward. Part of being a long term investor is making sure you do not allow your portfolio to drift into a place where APPL, AMZN, GOOGL etc become 20% plus holdings in your overall portfolio. I am more conservative I guess than most in being disciplined to rebalance and trim after stocks have taken monster moves and I have held them for multiple years. Some will say bahhhhh humbug AAPL will never go down. Maybe so. But when it has that 20-30% down move (because it has in the past and it will again) and 25-30% of your portfolio is in that stock....oooof. You will get very upset, maybe have anxiety and also make some brutal bad decisions in a panic when your seeing your nest egg drop like a rock during times of extreme volatility in some names that you would consider household. And it happens across all sectors, make no mistake. But mitigating that high standard deviation (implied volatility) can go a long way to better financial health long term and also....yield, yield, yield. I like to have at least 3% yield in my large cap portfolio. That dividend compounding is the golden ticket to sustainable long term wealth. 

Yes....great long term dividend plays. Growth will be highly limited. But those are great income plays in the overall portfolio. The compounding alone on those stocks will be a nice long term investment. 

Would it change your approach at all if you hadn't hit capital gains yet?

Prior to last spring the vast majority of my holdings were indexes.  All the big tech stuff I didn't get into until summer/fall so none of it has hit capital gains yet.  Still worth trimming and taking profits on stuff like SE, MSFT, AAPL, etc in that case?

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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15 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Would it change your approach at all if you hadn't hit capital gains yet?

Prior to last spring the vast majority of my holdings were indexes.  All the big tech stuff I didn't get into until summer/fall so none of it has hit capital gains yet.  Still worth trimming and taking profits on stuff like SE, MSFT, AAPL, etc in that case?

In my case, no way I trim before long term gains at this point. In mid February knowing how much they’d drop, sure, but for me, long term gains are way less than short term that I wouldn’t want to lose 20-25% just by selling it now. The chance that you make that up is too risky compared to knowing you lose it IMHO. It all depends on your taxes. Just remember that any short term capital gains will be taxed at you highest tax bracket as it’s added on to income and may even bump some into the next bracket.

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On 2/18/2021 at 2:35 PM, Sand said:

Another item being whacked - QCLN.  This is an Oz suggestion and I'm up a lot here.  It's a clean energy ETF, down due to the market day and due to the bad press from Texas.  I don't think the long term growth of this area slows.  

Are you still feeling this long term?

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6 minutes ago, JAA said:

Are you still feeling this long term?

Yes, think so.  I don't have a lot in it, but I don't see that area as anything but ascending in prominence.  Time will tell if profits follow.

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:kicksrock:

Almost bought into a company which donated dog treats, bed, cage, etc for my daughter's make a wish this week. Just checked in and it's up 9% AH. (Chewy / $CHWY)

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4 hours ago, Freak Show said:

Would PFE & GSK still be in the buy category?

Just a note - PFE is at the same level it was at in 1998, dividends included.  I don't see their ability to reward shareholders changing.

Complete, utter, permanent dog.  :BnB:Even worse than Amazon:/BnB:

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4 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

:kicksrock:

Almost bought into a company which donated dog treats, bed, cage, etc for my daughter's make a wish this week. Just checked in and it's up 9% AH. (Chewy / $CHWY)

I had no idea you had this going on.  Sincere thoughts and prayers for you and your daughter.

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2 minutes ago, Sand said:

Just a note - PFE is at the same level it was at in 1998, dividends included.  I don't see their ability to reward shareholders changing.

Complete, utter, permanent dog.  :BnB:Even worse than Amazon:/BnB:

PFE at least could be considered a stable, bond type investment with 4% yield. I'm not buying, but it's not a horrible idea.

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5 minutes ago, Sand said:

I had no idea you had this going on.  Sincere thoughts and prayers for you and your daughter.

She's good now, a St jude's nurse submitted her for it. But she's doing incredibly now. To the point we almost felt guilty accepting. But it's now our third go to charity. 

If you're interested: https://whnt.com/news/madison/make-a-wish-and-james-clemens-team-up-to-grant-madison-girls-wish/

Edited by -OZ-
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21 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

:kicksrock:

Almost bought into a company which donated dog treats, bed, cage, etc for my daughter's make a wish this week. Just checked in and it's up 9% AH. (Chewy / $CHWY)

Its earnings day for chewy

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17 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

She's good now, a St jude's nurse submitted her for it. But she's doing incredibly now. To the point we almost felt guilty accepting. But it's now our third go to charity. 

If you're interested: https://whnt.com/news/madison/make-a-wish-and-james-clemens-team-up-to-grant-madison-girls-wish/

I wouldn't feel bad.  Good friend of mine was in about the same situation.  His kid, with Down's, contracted leukemia.  Child did really well and is still doing great (and is now an adult).  He got a make a wish and spent an afternoon with Garth Brooks (who evidently was absolutely awesome with him).

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20 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

She's good now, a St jude's nurse submitted her for it. But she's doing incredibly now. To the point we almost felt guilty accepting. But it's now our third go to charity. 

If you're interested: https://whnt.com/news/madison/make-a-wish-and-james-clemens-team-up-to-grant-madison-girls-wish/

That was awesome and I do own some Chewy, so nice to see that up again too!

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21 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

PFE at least could be considered a stable, bond type investment with 4% yield. I'm not buying, but it's not a horrible idea.

It hasn't gone anywhere in almost 25 years with dividends included.  All kinds of oof there.  In that space I'd choose JNJ every time.

(All IMO).

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1 hour ago, Sand said:

It hasn't gone anywhere in almost 25 years with dividends included.  All kinds of oof there.  In that space I'd choose JNJ every time.

(All IMO).

Agreed about JNJ. 

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1 hour ago, Sand said:

I wouldn't feel bad.  Good friend of mine was in about the same situation.  His kid, with Down's, contracted leukemia.  Child did really well and is still doing great (and is now an adult).  He got a make a wish and spent an afternoon with Garth Brooks (who evidently was absolutely awesome with him).

That would be cool. Music aside he seems like a really good guy.

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1 minute ago, -OZ- said:

That would be cool. Music aside he seems like a really good guy.

Callin' Baton Rouge hasn't held up well. 

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11 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

That would be cool. Music aside he seems like a really good guy.

He threw a baseball around with the child and evidently got approached by a lot of folks (not surprising), but politely declined all of those to give that child his wish.  Definitely a good guy.

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1 hour ago, The Ref said:

$MARA had a nice rebound to the all time high. BTC keeps marching higher and this is going to take off.

Think MARA and RIOT will follow the same basic track?

Bitcoin Currently $59K 🚀

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