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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)

Is it dumb to hold MARA, RIOT, and BLOK?

(BLOK holds some MARA and RIOT already)
I've done well with puts on MARA and RIOT the last couple weeks.  They may go back up a little bit in the short term, but look at the financials and ownership behind the companies.  They were failures in other industries that changed their names and ticker symbols and jumped on the bitcoin train.  Their net asset value is a small fraction of their share price.  They have lined their pockets by issuing new stock at these inflated prices.  The vast majority, like around 80%, of bitcoin mining goes through China.  These American companies are small players trading at grossly inflated values.  Bitcoin needs to continue its steep price climb and these American mining companies need to do everything right in order to maybe justify their current valuation a few years from now.  But they are run by people with a history of greed and scams so what are the chances of all that happening? 

 
I'm hoping to buy NFLX 4/23 $525 and 4/30 $530 calls but I need the stock to dip back to 505 for my price to trigger.  No real insight on my part.  The max pain for NFLX options is around $540 but given the size of their market cap, I'm not sure how much influence that option point will have. 

 
Damn, was really tempted to DCA that SKLZ down yesterday in the 12s. Damn work always getting in the way.

Then again, felt like this played out a few weeks ago before another leg down.

Weird to be having such a nice day when NFLX disappointing was the catalyst. 

 
Hello NNOX

Only 35% more to go
It's still just trading in tandem with everything that's even remotely similar (TMDX, DMTK, etc.) None of its price movement (or price movement of most of the quality growth stocks we've seen get hammered) has anything to do with what the company is doing. As Todem reminds us, when they raid the brothel they arrest the pretty ones, too. 

 
Damn, was really tempted to DCA that SKLZ down yesterday in the 12s. Damn work always getting in the way.

Then again, felt like this played out a few weeks ago before another leg down.

Weird to be having such a nice day when NFLX disappointing was the catalyst. 
Man, up almost 30% today!

 
Man, up almost 30% today!
Makes up for a bit of the losses but 30% after going down more is nice but not really amazing. It just wiped out the last week of losses. Had I doubled down yesterday like I was thinking (didn’t want too much), then it would have brought the cost basis way down. Still not confident it’ll hold long.

 
Man I’m gonna start calling you eeyore ;)
Well as my worst performing stock, it’s got a special place with me. It is nice but the fact that I thought hey $12 seems like a bottom and didn’t take advantage of it makes it a little vexing. Some stocks you can do no wrong, this one doesn’t like me that much.

 
I'm hoping to buy NFLX 4/23 $525 and 4/30 $530 calls but I need the stock to dip back to 505 for my price to trigger.  No real insight on my part.  The max pain for NFLX options is around $540 but given the size of their market cap, I'm not sure how much influence that option point will have. 
4/23 $525 at $1.15 and 4/30 $530 at $2.45.

Let's hope it goes up from here.  I think it will hit 520 tomorrow if the market is green.  I am fairly conservative with options. I will usually sell 1/3 to 1/2 the contracts as soon as they cover my total cost.

 
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-21/you-can-sell-the-trees-you-don-t-cut?srnd=opinion

How was your 4/20?

A fund manager named Brett Rogers emailed me yesterday to say:

“The GME options that traded the most today (4/20) are the expiring 690 calls. I have hated my job for months now, just kill me.”

Bloomberg tells me that those calls (GME US 04/23/21 C690 Equity) traded 3,970 contracts yesterday. To be fair they traded twice as many the day before, and their price has gone steadily down over the last few days, as you’d expect from an option that expires on Friday and is $500+ out of the money. (It closed at $0.10.) Also Bloomberg tells me that they didn’t exactly trade the most of any GME contract yesterday; they’re up there, but they’re behind the somewhat more sensible $200-strike Friday call. Still. One sees his point. 

I have to say, I have been a financial blogger for almost 10 years now, and I think this is the first year I have ever, like, commemorated 4/20. It’s a marijuana joke. Obviously plenty of people in the financial industry smoke weed and/or think that “420” is a funny joke, but they have not traditionally made it central to their working lives. Nobody was like “we should upsize this $400 million bond deal to $420 million because 420, lol.” As far as I can tell that only really started in 2018, when Elon Musk pretended he was going to take Tesla Inc. private at $420 a share because, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission, “he had recently learned about the number’s significance in marijuana culture and thought his girlfriend ‘would find it funny, which admittedly is not a great reason to pick a price.’“

At the time I defended Musk a little, writing that arbitrary first bids in take-private transactions are pretty normal, and why not amuse yourself a bit. But now I think that “420 is the drugs number” kind of is a great reason to pick a price? One aspect of hyper-modern finance is that the good numbers are 420 and 69, and if you can price or size something at 420 or 69 (or some legible multiple of 420 or 69) then you will get attention and possibly buyers. Yesterday people wanted the $690 Tesla calls, not the $700 or $600 or $500 calls. There is a conventional behavioral-finance view that trading clusters at round numbers, but the modern version is that trading clusters at Internet Joke Numbers. If you are launching a $400 million special purpose acquisition company, why not launch a $420.69 million SPAC instead? The ticker “NICE” is taken, unfortunately, but still; you will get lots of retail attention and sell more stock and have more aftermarket support if you signal that you are in on the joke.

This is how it all works now, sorry.

 
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-21/you-can-sell-the-trees-you-don-t-cut?srnd=opinion

How was your 4/20?

A fund manager named Brett Rogers emailed me yesterday to say:

“The GME options that traded the most today (4/20) are the expiring 690 calls. I have hated my job for months now, just kill me.”

Bloomberg tells me that those calls (GME US 04/23/21 C690 Equity) traded 3,970 contracts yesterday. To be fair they traded twice as many the day before, and their price has gone steadily down over the last few days, as you’d expect from an option that expires on Friday and is $500+ out of the money. (It closed at $0.10.) Also Bloomberg tells me that they didn’t exactly trade the most of any GME contract yesterday; they’re up there, but they’re behind the somewhat more sensible $200-strike Friday call. Still. One sees his point. 

I have to say, I have been a financial blogger for almost 10 years now, and I think this is the first year I have ever, like, commemorated 4/20. It’s a marijuana joke. Obviously plenty of people in the financial industry smoke weed and/or think that “420” is a funny joke, but they have not traditionally made it central to their working lives. Nobody was like “we should upsize this $400 million bond deal to $420 million because 420, lol.” As far as I can tell that only really started in 2018, when Elon Musk pretended he was going to take Tesla Inc. private at $420 a share because, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission, “he had recently learned about the number’s significance in marijuana culture and thought his girlfriend ‘would find it funny, which admittedly is not a great reason to pick a price.’“

At the time I defended Musk a little, writing that arbitrary first bids in take-private transactions are pretty normal, and why not amuse yourself a bit. But now I think that “420 is the drugs number” kind of is a great reason to pick a price? One aspect of hyper-modern finance is that the good numbers are 420 and 69, and if you can price or size something at 420 or 69 (or some legible multiple of 420 or 69) then you will get attention and possibly buyers. Yesterday people wanted the $690 Tesla calls, not the $700 or $600 or $500 calls. There is a conventional behavioral-finance view that trading clusters at round numbers, but the modern version is that trading clusters at Internet Joke Numbers. If you are launching a $400 million special purpose acquisition company, why not launch a $420.69 million SPAC instead? The ticker “NICE” is taken, unfortunately, but still; you will get lots of retail attention and sell more stock and have more aftermarket support if you signal that you are in on the joke.

This is how it all works now, sorry.
Is there really that much of a difference between $690 being an arbitrary number because "lol 69" vs. $700 being an arbitrary number because "it's a nice round number".

Note he was annoyed with the $690 calls firing off instead of $700 or $680 calls, not with the $690 calls firing off instead of $686 or $703.

Heck you can't even write calls for $686 or $703 but you can for $700, $750, etc.  There's no real mathematical reason for that.  It's just as arbitrary.

 
Is there really that much of a difference between $690 being an arbitrary number because "lol 69" vs. $700 being an arbitrary number because "it's a nice round number".

Note he was annoyed with the $690 calls firing off instead of $700 or $680 calls, not with the $690 calls firing off instead of $686 or $703.

Heck you can't even write calls for $686 or $703 but you can for $700, $750, etc.  There's no real mathematical reason for that.  It's just as arbitrary.
Not really, no. I don't get the sense that Levine is annoyed by all of this, but it's clear that there IS a certain type of old finance guy (like the fund manager he quoted) who's upset that this Very Serious Business is being influenced by a horde of hooting and hollering internet morons who like the weed and sex numbers. It's pretty amusing.

 
Got in on PATH near the close here. My wife has been a big fan of that software when she has seen it used before.
I forgot to confirm my IPO request although I’d assume that I had no chance since they upped the price. I’ve never gotten any shares at Fidelity for anything “hot”, but I’ll watch it now. Have a feeling we’ll dip again.

 
I forgot to confirm my IPO request although I’d assume that I had no chance since they upped the price. I’ve never gotten any shares at Fidelity for anything “hot”, but I’ll watch it now. Have a feeling we’ll dip again.
I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't dip given the high valuation. The founder is keeping a lot of shares in it, something I like.

I am biased towards companies that feel set up to automating parts of the corporate world that are very expensive.

 
I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't dip given the high valuation. The founder is keeping a lot of shares in it, something I like.

I am biased towards companies that feel set up to automating parts of the corporate world that are very expensive.
Oh, agree on that, I was thinking in general. It was a good market day to go public but I could see it dragged down in sympathy. I don’t think it’s all green for the rest of the year if you will. I wouldn’t complain but I think we are in a rut so to speak and this was more dead cat bounce.

 
Not really, no. I don't get the sense that Levine is annoyed by all of this, but it's clear that there IS a certain type of old finance guy (like the fund manager he quoted) who's upset that this Very Serious Business is being influenced by a horde of hooting and hollering internet morons who like the weed and sex numbers. It's pretty amusing.
Sort of like the PGA Tour when Tiger got big. Or like Happy Gilmore. 

 

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