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I think I may try to buy some Fulgent tonight. It’s a $2B market cap. Take away their CV19 testing and they have almost $700M in cash and their genetics testing they are forecasting a revenue of $100M in 2021. That’s a 174% growth rate. Ignoring the cash horde they have now due to CV19 testing, which they expect to still be another $400M the rest of 2021, the cash and non-CV testing/growth more than justify the $2B cap. They are likely going to just continue to rake in cash due to CV testing especially since they are part of a new $2B contract with some agency, can’t recall if CDC. They may have close to $1B in cash at the end of 2021. Not bad for a $2B market cap with 100% revenue growth. People are scared of the what happens after CV testing but they couldn’t be putting themselves into a better situation to make acquisitions or find way more growth than expected.

It’ll be a bumpy ride but I definitely think I’ll lower my cost basis. I should have just not sold before SMH before the ridiculous run up.

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Trying to time bottoms is very hard. If you believe in the company long term I feel this price is a very strong entry point long term. Set it and forget for a while. When it doubles....take your

I will make a wager. If this stock hits $420.69 before this earnings call on March 31st, I will pass out 100 FBG subscriptions to the gents in the stock thread.

sponks

36 minutes ago, drunken slob said:

Bought a new heating unit and ac unit with some of my CYDY proceeds :pickle:

Plus a little ...  :banned:

 

Cuts into my townhome proceeds which I have been slow to put to work (probably wise, would have lost even more).

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12 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I think I may try to buy some Fulgent tonight. It’s a $2B market cap. Take away their CV19 testing and they have almost $700M in cash and their genetics testing they are forecasting a revenue of $100M in 2021. That’s a 174% growth rate. Ignoring the cash horde they have now due to CV19 testing, which they expect to still be another $400M the rest of 2021, the cash and non-CV testing/growth more than justify the $2B cap. They are likely going to just continue to rake in cash due to CV testing especially since they are part of a new $2B contract with some agency, can’t recall if CDC. They may have close to $1B in cash at the end of 2021. Not bad for a $2B market cap with 100% revenue growth. People are scared of the what happens after CV testing but they couldn’t be putting themselves into a better situation to make acquisitions or find way more growth than expected.

It’ll be a bumpy ride but I definitely think I’ll lower my cost basis. I should have just not sold before SMH before the ridiculous run up.

Love the NGS growth. That's what I wanted to see.

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14 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I think I may try to buy some Fulgent tonight. It’s a $2B market cap. Take away their CV19 testing and they have almost $700M in cash and their genetics testing they are forecasting a revenue of $100M in 2021. That’s a 174% growth rate. Ignoring the cash horde they have now due to CV19 testing, which they expect to still be another $400M the rest of 2021, the cash and non-CV testing/growth more than justify the $2B cap. They are likely going to just continue to rake in cash due to CV testing especially since they are part of a new $2B contract with some agency, can’t recall if CDC. They may have close to $1B in cash at the end of 2021. Not bad for a $2B market cap with 100% revenue growth. People are scared of the what happens after CV testing but they couldn’t be putting themselves into a better situation to make acquisitions or find way more growth than expected.

It’ll be a bumpy ride but I definitely think I’ll lower my cost basis. I should have just not sold before SMH before the ridiculous run up.

Pretty sure he said CDC. They're also confident their tests will be used in return-to-normalcy testing because of the accuracy. Listening to the call. Upping '21 forecast. 

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1 hour ago, McBokonon said:

I fully expect all of my stocks reporting after the close to have tremendous quarters and tank anyway, including FLGT, but their short percentage is in the 30’s. It’s the only one I can see popping but it’s unlikely.

Squeeze you beautiful bastard, squeeze

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Hard to follow Meng because of broken English. Hard to follow CFO (I think?) because he talks 1,000 MPH and so. damn. much. jargon.

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That was NOT the CFO. Not sure who he was.

"We are believers in our market, and we can continue to be a disruptive force, launching new services in new markets at record pace. We build organically, with systems and processes that are seamlessly integrated."

That's not a direct quote, but it's a pretty good quote of his last statement. 

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10 minutes ago, Desert_Power said:

Cuts into my townhome proceeds which I have been slow to put to work (probably wise, would have lost even more).

I hear ya. I'm the opposite

We had to have a tech come for the heater in February and I knew the end was near. AC unit was finished after last summer and needed replaced no matter what. Took some of my profits along with those Biden bucks and now have all new equipment with 10-year warranties.

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Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

That was NOT the CFO. Not sure who he was.

"We are believers in our market, and we can continue to be a disruptive force, launching new services in new markets at record pace. We build organically, with systems and processes that are seamlessly integrated."

That's not a direct quote, but it's a pretty good quote of his last statement. 

No synergies? Seems like a bad sign IMO.

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39 minutes ago, Capella said:

:shock: finally out?

Oh no, not THAT one.  No, I'm trapped there.  I own 2x more shares than traded today so....yeah.  

No I sold out of another crappy cobalt stock.  I was really good at finding those it seems.  If that was a career, I'd be the Tom Brady of it. 

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Just now, caustic said:

No synergies? Seems like a bad sign IMO.

Synergies AND paradigm shifts!!!!

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27 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I think I may try to buy some Fulgent tonight. It’s a $2B market cap. Take away their CV19 testing and they have almost $700M in cash and their genetics testing they are forecasting a revenue of $100M in 2021. That’s a 174% growth rate. Ignoring the cash horde they have now due to CV19 testing, which they expect to still be another $400M the rest of 2021, the cash and non-CV testing/growth more than justify the $2B cap. They are likely going to just continue to rake in cash due to CV testing especially since they are part of a new $2B contract with some agency, can’t recall if CDC. They may have close to $1B in cash at the end of 2021. Not bad for a $2B market cap with 100% revenue growth. People are scared of the what happens after CV testing but they couldn’t be putting themselves into a better situation to make acquisitions or find way more growth than expected.

It’ll be a bumpy ride but I definitely think I’ll lower my cost basis. I should have just not sold before SMH before the ridiculous run up.

Balance sheet (per CFO): "WELL ON OUR WAY to our goal of having $1B."

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Less than $1M of that NGS business came from the CDC Covid arrangement. The rest was "core" business. So, yes, CDC. 

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Added a little FLGT back to my core position. Started NXPI. 

Bought CLF when it dipped earlier - this will be short term, just riding the wave for a little bit

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8 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

So they're targeting it. He called it out specifically.

He must have read my post, lol. 

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8 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

Added a little FLGT back to my core position. Started NXPI. 

Bought CLF when it dipped earlier - this will be short term, just riding the wave for a little bit

FLGT dropping a bit closer to the closing price. I kind of want to sell some other stuff but wondering if it’ll pop in the morning. I’ll do some work tonight. I’m just tired of some stocks and would rather just dump into some of my more confident long term plays and let them ride. 

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55 minutes ago, stbugs said:

FLGT dropping a bit closer to the closing price. I kind of want to sell some other stuff but wondering if it’ll pop in the morning. I’ll do some work tonight. I’m just tired of some stocks and would rather just dump into some of my more confident long term plays and let them ride. 

You still have BL stbugs? Thoughts on long term rebound?

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Not a great stretch for the trading account.  Today alone UWMC -7.8%, GRAMF -6.6%, QS -5.78%, TRUFF -5.7%

Meanwhile the "boring" stocks in the portfolio are all near ATH - CSCO, KHC, OKE, PEO, PM, TSCO, XOM.  And of course the bulk of my IRA accounts that are in MFs and ETFs were up half a percent today.  That's exactly why I'm only actively trading with about 10% of my holdings.  We all thought we were pretty smart when everything speculative was 🚀, it's times like these that remind me how hard it is to beat the market over the long run.  Doesn't mean I'm going to quit trying, though!

 

 

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4 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

I still think I’m pretty smart

Me too, but I have to remind myself that this is an all-spec account, and my batting average is not going to be sterling.

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48 minutes ago, steelerfan1 said:

You still have BL stbugs? Thoughts on long term rebound?

Yep, not one of my large ones and it doesn’t trade much AHs. Looks like the beat top and bottom. They’re growing 20% a year and honestly selling software has been a pretty challenging environment (Ive got first hand experience) outside of some must haves for real WFH. Seems like a nice long term hold as their P/S is probably around 10-15 2021 which ain’t bad for 20% growth that could accelerate once more companies open up spending more. Might not be a rock star but nothing wrong with 10-15% a year with upside.

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4 hours ago, JAA said:

I think it comes down to your outlook.  Are you planning to keep this stock for 5-10 years or just get green?

What sticks out to me is BB @20.56.  If you plan on keeping BB for 5-10 years, average down there.

Both. Whatever it takes to get green. I guess my question was really..what do you guys feel strongest about long term?

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There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” ― John Kenneth Galbraith

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2 minutes ago, GROOT said:

There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” ― John Kenneth Galbraith

If any of us knew anything we’d all be millionaires off of some stupid dog coin. 

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11 minutes ago, NajehHejan said:

We going’s uppsies or downsies today?

Most of what I’m looking at is green. TBH, I felt a bit worried yesterday but almost all of my long term stocks killed earnings yet again and raised guidance. Might be some good opportunities to expand some stocks. I wish I hadn’t been so busy because DDOG is one I never had a full position on but bought back in the big dip last year. It hit $69 yesterday and had great earnings and is up to $77 premarket. Probably won’t get below $70 again but they’ve barely started their Microsoft partnership and should continue to grow. I mentioned them last quarter because they had great earnings and had just announced the partnership. I still want to keep my decent cash position but I feel like their are some nice buys.

One stock I’m glad I sold is APPN, just not growing fast enough to justify the price. I sold half my position at $90 and was mad when it went to $200 and sold the rest at $200/205 because it felt like it was a meme type run up. Again, pissed that the next couple days it popped to $250. Happy as a clam now that it’s dumped all the way down to the $80s premarket. Not happy it’s down, happy I sold half over $200 when I knew it was crazy. Kind of like that FLGT run up to $180. If it gets down to $60-70, maybe I’ll jump back in. 

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10 minutes ago, humpback said:

Terrible jobs report sends Nasdaq 🚀.

Assuming that interest rates won’t be ratcheted up. I get the concept but I don’t think higher interest rates blow up whether FVRR succeeds in growing like a weed for 5-10 years.

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Interesting start. Nice day kind of makes up for yesterday but some of the pops from great earnings are definitely muted. Still feel way better overall after the solid earnings but think prices may continue sideways for a while. Need to figure out my taxes this weekend, have a good cry and then determine what else I want to really own. Time to shuffle and just stop watching every day. Job’s been picking up a lot lately.

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13 minutes ago, 2Squirrels1Nut said:

I sold my remaining "free" shares this week.   Pretty good sign to load up. 

This run is just beginning. They are going to crush the NFT market with their licenses. I just got back from Disney World and their loungefly purses are flying off the shelves. I am holding my shares with diamond hands. This story is just starting.

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On 5/2/2021 at 11:03 PM, Bob Sacamano said:

Think I'm going to buy some MMI in the am. Real estate prices are through the roof in more sectors than residential, they crushed last quarter, and it looks like analysts expectations are very low. Seems like a setup for a beat.

... 

This is a trade. Not an investment. Looking for low $40s in very short order. But the stock seems to want to settle around $35 anyway. Really low downside and a good floor regardless imo. 

15% Rev beat and 100% earnings beat. Flat.

Was a quick $500 anyway, I guess.

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1 hour ago, David Dodds said:

This run is just beginning. They are going to crush the NFT market with their licenses. I just got back from Disney World and their loungefly purses are flying off the shelves. I am holding my shares with diamond hands. This story is just starting.

No idea what this is.  Lol :)

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I know a lot of you are long $QS

This guy pointing out some “wholesale” changes they submitted under risks today. I’m not sure if this is an update made because SPAC regs were so loose or what. Just an fyi - companies always provide risks that may never materialize but I guess they didn’t disclose these until just now:

$QS 10-K/A (No. 2) filed this AM wholesale revises risk factors & forward-looking statements:
- Lack of internal controls
- Inability to commercialize
- Relationship with VW
- Failure of batteries to perform
- Exp. facilities operations
- Inability to attract customers

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Quote

 

Grid-scale battery maker ESS Inc. plans to go public through a SPAC merger that values it at nearly $1.1 billion, the Wilsonville company announced Friday.

It’s a transformative move for the 10-year-old startup that has little revenue but is scaling up and looking to widely deploy its “flow battery.”

The technology is billed as a better alternative to lithium-ion batteries for long-duration storage — from 4-12 hours — that can help smooth the way for more intermittent renewable energy on the grid.

ACON S2 Acquisition Corp. (Nasdaq: STWO) is the SPAC partner that plans to bring ESS (officially ESS Tech Inc.) to the public markets.

“ESS offers a remarkable technology that is a game-changer in the world’s transition to clean energy,” Adam Kriger, ACON S2’s CEO, said in a statement. “With its tremendous market opportunity and leadership position in cost, performance and sustainability, ESS has a clear trajectory for growth as it scales.”

Short for "special purpose acquisition company," a SPAC raises money in an initial public offering and then acquires an existing business. It’s a shortcut route to taking a company public that has taken off in the last year or so, becoming more common that traditional IPOs.

In the deal, ACON S2 raised $250 million from various investors, including SB Energy Global Holdings and Breakthrough Energy Ventures, who led ESS’s last big investment round, a Series C in late 2019 that brought in $30 million.

Net proceeds of $465 million are expected in the deal. In an investor presentation, ESS said it would use the money to boost its manufacturing capacity from 250 megawatt-hours this year to 16 gigawatt-hours in 2025 — a 64-fold increase — as well as expand its sales footprint and improve the technology further.

The company said it has booked $2 million in revenue this year, and projected a jump to $37 million in 2022, $300 million in 2023 and on up to $3.5 billion by 2027. Expansion into Australia in 2023 and Europe in 2024 is planned.

If it all comes to pass, it would be the first big breakthrough for flow batteries, which despite high hopes, have remained an outsider looking in on a fast-growing market beguiled by lithium-ion batteries and their ever-shrinking prices. Several companies in the category have come and gone over the past several years.

But there are signs things could be changing as deep decarbonization drives a need for longer-duration storage.

Unlike conventional batteries that come in a self-contained package, flow batteries rely on separated tanks of electrolyte fluid that is pumped into a reaction chamber to generate a charge. (ESS uses non-toxic iron in its electrolyte solution, which it sees as a key advantage over other flow-battery competitors.) In a process known as "redox" — reduction and oxidation — electrons flow one way during the charge phase, then the process reverses during discharge.

ESS was founded by Craig Evans in his garage with Julia Song, the company's chief technology officer, in 2011.

Evans headed the company until just last month when ESS Inc. announced the hiring of Eric Dresselhuys, a co-founder and former longtime executive at Silver Spring Networks, a smart metering and grid networking company. Evans stayed on company president.

ESS recently put its employee count at around 100, double what it was 18 months ago and continuing to rise.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

I know a lot of you are long $QS

This guy pointing out some “wholesale” changes they submitted under risks today. I’m not sure if this is an update made because SPAC regs were so loose or what. Just an fyi - companies always provide risks that may never materialize but I guess they didn’t disclose these until just now:

$QS 10-K/A (No. 2) filed this AM wholesale revises risk factors & forward-looking statements:
- Lack of internal controls
- Inability to commercialize
- Relationship with VW
- Failure of batteries to perform
- Exp. facilities operations
- Inability to attract customers

Have you ever read a prospectus on a micro or small cap stock? 
 

This is standard operating procedure. 
 

This is called CYA and every single prospectus I have ever read.....you would never invest a penny in anything reading the risk disclosures. Unless you truly believed in what they can potentially do.

However everyone does whatever they want with their money.

 

And this is why it is called speculation when you potentially invest in these types of companies. 
 

The potential rewards are big and the potential loss is every penny you put into it. 
 

For any stock......period.

 

I have never not stated QS and BLDP are highly speculative and....you gotta believe in it and go long. 
 

I don’t blame anyone who rather trade it. But my gameplan is staying long and not watching the price everyday. Otherwise I will want to get out all the time. 
 

These two positions are the most volatile and speculative in nature that I own. Playing on the green movement which I believe is going to explode over the next 5 years easy.

95% of your money should be well diversified and in high quality stocks.

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