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1 hour ago, JAA said:

@Todem- I bought this 4/18 with a Cost Basis of ~$175.  Currently up ~6%.  What is your thought here long term?  Do you have an exit point or just keep in rolling?  I think I like the industry, who doesnt like adult beverages?  Is there something specific about this company you like most?

:thumbup:

Long term hold. Great defensive stock in the portfolio. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I agree with you on some things like some stocks being beaten down into a nice buy range. Heck even solid earnings all around don’t amount to much. On QS though, I’m not sure why you think he’s promising something like a scam kind of like CYDY’s CEO or Nikola’s former CEO. QS just hit a milestone recently with Volkswagen where VW paid them I think $100M because their battery samples met the requirements for that set milestone. I know it’s definitely risky as heck, but I’d think meeting a VW a month or so ago milestone is a good thing. If you are referring to their SEC filing update, I think that’s purely CYA especially since they came from the SPAC space and the SEC has kind of cracked down on SPACs and what they report.

“Buying on hope” was a comment I pulled from his post. 

Yes exactly......it is a pure speculation play. They have no earnings. They have IP that may change the entire landscape of EV. So yeah......it is hope. Much like Apple and Amazon were two decades ago. 

This is how it starts. 

And this is why you only invest what you are willing to lose in stocks like this. And as time goes on that hope can either turn into tangible earnings and a legitimate great business or it will go to zero. That is the stock market. That is it, in it’s very fundamental essence and about as simple as we can put. 

I stand by QS and BLDP as the future and I expect the fruits from these two highly speculative investments to bear in 2023 and beyond. It will take time. But I said to myself.....I going to put this little bucket of money to sleep and hope it will wake up a lot more in several years.....if it stays in a coma and never wakes up.....I was willing to lose it.

The majority of my money? We know where that is...I don’t need to keep saying it. 

If you sell into this heavy weakness.....so be it. I say then you should never try to invest in stocks like this again. And trying to become a trader.......good luck. That is a tough gig. But.....I have always said...if you all of a sudden finding yourself in position up 100% or more....sell half. Risk is off the table.....forever. 

BLDP was a perfect example (as was a bunch of stocks we talked about and listed a year or so ago..BA, BLMN, MGM, GLPI, DFS to name just a few) of having that chance to take your original investment off the table and ride a free roll to hopefully a 10 bagger. 

Anyway......just trying to help. 

Buckle up for the summer doldrums. They are here in the market. I expect it to last thru October and look for a year end rally. But IMO we are range bound from here on out for a while. And a 10% giveback is easily on the table...maybe more. Par for the course in the markets. 

 

Edited by Todem
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1 hour ago, GROOT said:

What's going on at Draftkings? What am i missing?

I dont like the stock.  Take a look at the 1-year.  Pretty volatile if you ask me

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15 hours ago, ericttspikes said:

I put OPEN on my watchlist. Another hated sold off SPAC. They put up good numbers in a sellers market. Seems like the model is even more compelling in a buyers market. Only in 16 metro markets currently so room to grow there. Still kind of skeptical of ibuying real estate, but I can see this concept working. User reviews are good. Seems like their game is smaller margins on sales and bundling services.

Guided $5.2B for 21. At the current share price, P/S is 2. Zillow is 5. A similar tech model like CVNA is also around 5. Intrigued.

Yeah, I had OPEN for a month or more but just got tired of watching it sink like a stone.  Intrigued, but out for now.

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1 hour ago, GROOT said:

What's going on at Draftkings? What am i missing?

Thought for sure taking big swings at DKNG and APPL would be prudent and even safe ventures.  A nice departure from my riverboat gambling style of taking risks on commodity related names, marijuana and Shroom equities and gambling stonks.  Fancied myself a maturing grownup, ready to bask in the great reward of current blue-chip names, best in breed for their respective industries.  

Instead, I'm getting prison sexed over a rusty, lidless toilet.  

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

I’ve mentioned this before and did so as a friendly recommendation in the housing thread talking about what cost basis to use, but IRS penalties suck. I was lucky enough to be correct that I owed nothing but it was a shot to the balls when I opened up a tax bill for $25k (more) last year. $5k of it was penalties and interest, which was shockingly high considering the real interest rates today. Kind of like loan shark rates. Anyway, I was good because I didn’t really owe and I’m still waiting for them to send me the $500 they said I get back after all that (have no clue how they got there). Your friend is having fun because he may owe a significant amount of fees on top of the gains he tried to avoid.

Yeah, never ever NEVER invite the IRS, the SEC or the mafia into your life.  



Also, twins. 

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48 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Yeah, never ever NEVER invite the IRS, the SEC or the mafia into your life.  



Also, twins. 

Dude, that letter really shook me when I opened it. Luckily, I’ve gotten to a point where that wouldn’t kill me but JFC a bill for $25k out of nowhere. I legitimately thought I #### the bed on my taxes. I didn’t really read through it until the next day and got pissed but I had to just put it away and worry about it the next day. If I was cheating, oof. 

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45 minutes ago, GROOT said:

I'm not sure AMC can be stopped this time. Call me crazy but this thing may actually squeeze.

This is the stuff that kills me. I love UPST for the long term and it’s barely up after another really nice quarter and guidance. This #### stock AMC is up about the same?

I really need to survey the carnage because there are some stocks I want to finish some positions on but it’s hard to pull the trigger. Just don’t see a near term catalyst yet, especially when great earnings aren’t enough.

I do think there’s going to be a ton of bag holders all around once we are back to normal and you can’t just hope AMC will be better after the massive amount of debt that was added and they face a changing market. If streaming ends up much more profitable, what does AMC even have?

Anyway, definitely interesting times.

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2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Dude, that letter really shook me when I opened it. Luckily, I’ve gotten to a point where that wouldn’t kill me but JFC a bill for $25k out of nowhere. I legitimately thought I #### the bed on my taxes. I didn’t really read through it until the next day and got pissed but I had to just put it away and worry about it the next day. If I was cheating, oof. 

Oh, I too have received erroneous letters from the IRS where my heart sunk.  The need to prove your innocence to them is another gripe when THEY made the mistake.  

And I've told the story of the SEC and my emails numerous times in here.  That was significantly less fun than disembowelment. 

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3 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Dude, that letter really shook me when I opened it. Luckily, I’ve gotten to a point where that wouldn’t kill me but JFC a bill for $25k out of nowhere. I legitimately thought I #### the bed on my taxes. I didn’t really read through it until the next day and got pissed but I had to just put it away and worry about it the next day. If I was cheating, oof. 

When my kids were little I got a letter from the IRS saying I claimed someone on my taxes that I shouldn't have.  Turns out I transposed two digits in the Social Security number for one of the kids so once that was fixed no problem.... but letters from the IRS are scary.

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Started $TTD today. Added a little to $TER. Got back into $U and $UPST, small positions. Taking some of this cash hoard and sprinkling it around now. I won't catch the bottom but this will be close enough for me in the long run. I've diversified a little more and will keep an out there, too.

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1 hour ago, General Malaise said:

Thought for sure taking big swings at DKNG and APPL would be prudent and even safe ventures.  A nice departure from my riverboat gambling style of taking risks on commodity related names, marijuana and Shroom equities and gambling stonks.  Fancied myself a maturing grownup, ready to bask in the great reward of current blue-chip names, best in breed for their respective industries.  

Instead, I'm getting prison sexed over a rusty, lidless toilet.  

Keep buying APPL, I am.  You'll be happy this time next year.

Own DKNG too.  Just holding.  It will be fine.

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2 hours ago, Todem said:

“Buying on hope” was a comment I pulled from his post. 

Yes exactly......it is a pure speculation play. They have no earnings. They have IP that may change the entire landscape of EV. So yeah......it is hope. Much like Apple and Amazon were two decades ago. 

This is how it starts. 

And this is why you only invest what you are willing to lose in stocks like this. And as time goes on that hope can either turn into tangible earnings and a legitimate great business or it will go to zero. That is the stock market. That is it, in it’s very fundamental essence and about as simple as we can put. 

I stand by QS and BLDP as the future and I expect the fruits from these two highly speculative investments to bear in 2023 and beyond. It will take time. But I said to myself.....I going to put this little bucket of money to sleep and hope it will wake up a lot more in several years.....if it stays in a coma and never wakes up.....I was willing to lose it.

The majority of my money? We know where that is...I don’t need to keep saying it. 

If you sell into this heavy weakness.....so be it. I say then you should never try to invest in stocks like this again. And trying to become a trader.......good luck. That is a tough gig. But.....I have always said...if you all of a sudden finding yourself in position up 100% or more....sell half. Risk is off the table.....forever. 

BLDP was a perfect example (as was a bunch of stocks we talked about and listed a year or so ago..BA, BLMN, MGM, GLPI, DFS to name just a few) of having that chance to take your original investment off the table and ride a free roll to hopefully a 10 bagger. 

Anyway......just trying to help. 

Buckle up for the summer doldrums. They are here in the market. I expect it to last thru October and look for a year end rally. But IMO we are range bound from here on out for a while. And a 10% giveback is easily on the table...maybe more. Par for the course in the markets. 

 

For those of us not in those 2 yet would you recommend now as an entry point or see more pain in the immediate future to get in? Thanks as always, great info. :hifive:

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, McBokonon said:

Started $TTD today. Added a little to $TER. Got back into $U and $UPST, small positions. Taking some of this cash hoard and sprinkling it around now. I won't catch the bottom but this will be close enough for me in the long run. I've diversified a little more and will keep an out there, too.

I’ve got plenty of TTD left and TER. I will add more UPST and like U’s results so probably add some there too. Going to also add some more FLGT to average down on all 3. Been a busy day so might do the additions tomorrow.

Also, if you’re interested in Bitcoin, GBTC is about 13 off from BTC per 1000. Usually, I’ve see about an 8-11 range, i.e. when BTC is 50k, GBTC is usually between 39 and 42. Right now, GBTC is 41 and BTC is 54k so a bigger spread than normal. If you think BTC can run, GBTC is a better than normal discount. I’m going to add some.

ETA: Added 120 GBTC shares but nothing else yet. Too little time before the bell to make good decisions.

Edited by stbugs
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So much stuff on sale wish I had more cash laying around.  Picked up a few more shares of DK when it dipped below $42.  Have a bit of cash on the sidelines just not sure which of about a dozen stocks I'm watching closely.  I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow.  On a side note nice rebound by UWMC, it really saved my ### today.  

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So everyone feels like this pain is going to continue longer.  Why is my stubborn ### not buying SPY puts or volatility calls/shares?

I have a hard time rooting against my share positions overnight.

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We open red again tomorrow, much agony will follow, woeful posts in here but by the time the east coast crowd starts eating Ramen for lunch because 3-Martini lunches are no longer in the budget, stocks will reverse course and finish green.  Friday will be a bigly up day and we'll all go into the weekend feeling like Judge Smails.  

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36 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

For those of us not in those 2 yet would you recommend now as an entry point or see more pain in the immediate future to get in? Thanks as always, great info. :hifive:

They have both been falling knives....I never time bottoms. But both are significantly off their all times highs. Set it and forget for a while. 

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14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

So everyone feels like this pain is going to continue longer.  Why is my stubborn ### not buying SPY puts or volatility calls/shares?

I have a hard time rooting against my share positions overnight.

Lol. I don’t know. Feels like it’ll be a rough summer to ride out but I actually feel better about my stocks I’ve got done more rebalancing to do but I look at something like TTCF. Seemed like good results tonight but down 3% as usual. You might say, well they are expensive but their 2021 guidance makes P/S for 2021 revenue under 6. Well, maybe they aren’t growing well but their 2021 revenue guidance is a 60% increase over 2020. My wife and I like their food and I’m not a vegetarian/vegan by a long shot. They are a growth company but predicting profit next year. Those result make me feel good even if the share price doesn’t reflect it.

I’m not an options guy but while I felt worse about some of beatings we took last week, I’m starting to come around to being optimistic long term again.

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6 minutes ago, Todem said:

They have both been falling knives....I never time bottoms. But both are significantly off their all times highs. Set it and forget for a while. 

This is my thought. I’ve got to get my damn taxes done, but I’ve been thinking about getting rid of my crap and busting setting and forgetting. The nice thing is that my additions appear to be at nice discounts, unfortunately!

 

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3 hours ago, Todem said:

“Buying on hope” was a comment I pulled from his post. 

Yes exactly......it is a pure speculation play. They have no earnings. They have IP that may change the entire landscape of EV. So yeah......it is hope. Much like Apple and Amazon were two decades ago. 

This is how it starts. 

And this is why you only invest what you are willing to lose in stocks like this. And as time goes on that hope can either turn into tangible earnings and a legitimate great business or it will go to zero. That is the stock market. That is it, in it’s very fundamental essence and about as simple as we can put. 

I stand by QS and BLDP as the future and I expect the fruits from these two highly speculative investments to bear in 2023 and beyond. It will take time. But I said to myself.....I going to put this little bucket of money to sleep and hope it will wake up a lot more in several years.....if it stays in a coma and never wakes up.....I was willing to lose it.

The majority of my money? We know where that is...I don’t need to keep saying it. 

If you sell into this heavy weakness.....so be it. I say then you should never try to invest in stocks like this again. And trying to become a trader.......good luck. That is a tough gig. But.....I have always said...if you all of a sudden finding yourself in position up 100% or more....sell half. Risk is off the table.....forever. 

BLDP was a perfect example (as was a bunch of stocks we talked about and listed a year or so ago..BA, BLMN, MGM, GLPI, DFS to name just a few) of having that chance to take your original investment off the table and ride a free roll to hopefully a 10 bagger. 

Anyway......just trying to help. 

Buckle up for the summer doldrums. They are here in the market. I expect it to last thru October and look for a year end rally. But IMO we are range bound from here on out for a while. And a 10% giveback is easily on the table...maybe more. Par for the course in the markets. 

 

TODEM 4 PREZ

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18 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

We open red again tomorrow, much agony will follow, woeful posts in here but by the time the east coast crowd starts eating Ramen for lunch because 3-Martini lunches are no longer in the budget, stocks will reverse course and finish green.  Friday will be a bigly up day and we'll all go into the weekend feeling like Judge Smails.  

Wait... GM 4 PREZ

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Hmm, that crap IPO Fidelity gave me (APP) reported earnings tonight too. Market cap of $18B, Q1 revenue of $604M and growth of 132%. 2021 forecast of $2.7B (80% growth) and earnings of $700M (100% growth). That’s a forward P/S of  just under 7 and P/E of 26. Unless I’m reading it wrong, that’s not really expensive at all. Might decide to hold onto it.

Makes me wonder why the stock has been a lead weight outside of going public at the wrong time.

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34 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

We open red again tomorrow, much agony will follow, woeful posts in here but by the time the east coast crowd starts eating Ramen for lunch because 3-Martini lunches are no longer in the budget, stocks will reverse course and finish green.  Friday will be a bigly up day and we'll all go into the weekend feeling like Judge Smails.  

It's easy to grin...

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57 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

We open red again tomorrow, much agony will follow, woeful posts in here but by the time the east coast crowd starts eating Ramen for lunch because 3-Martini lunches are no longer in the budget, stocks will reverse course and finish green.  Friday will be a bigly up day and we'll all go into the weekend feeling like Judge Smails.  

Hah - what did I miss?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, GoBirds said:

For those of us not in those 2 yet would you recommend now as an entry point or see more pain in the immediate future to get in? Thanks as always, great info. :hifive:

It's been sub 15 pretty steady for a week.  I doubled up to get my cost basis sub 20 (I think several of us did).  I'm perfectly comfortable with that.  All my stuff is long term (4-8 years).

ETA: BLDP

Edited by tonydead
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45 minutes ago, drunken slob said:

Do any of you buy treasuries? I know this is the stock thread, but some of you hold bonds or notes, right?

:banned:

It was mentioned in another thread that I-bonds are yielding 3.54% for the next month. Planning on buying them this week when I have time...

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Posted (edited)

I’m ok with another red day and my worst month ever (so far) because I’m pretty sure I’m winning the power ball tonight. 
 

it’s at least as likely as BLDP finishing green tomorrow.  

Edited by Nick Vermeil
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17 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

To expand, he tweeted that TSLA won’t accept BTC for cars anymore because bitcoin mining is bad for the environment.

Well damn, should have bought UPST before the bell instead of GBTC. Although, does that make already mined Bitcoin more valuable since miners will be driven out of business? I’m assuming that we find out that Tesla has already sold all of their Bitcoin to ensure another profit this quarter since making cars isn’t profitable. 

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29 minutes ago, Desert_Power said:

Kudos to Musk on this one.

Yeah, but the possible environmental impact was a known issue when he got in. My guess is the real reason is something that’s giving his lawyer heartburn and the SEC some paperwork to do.

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