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Stock Thread (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
beef
Footballguy
Same. Just increased mine almost 40% making it about 10% of my total brokerage account. Half of that I'll start trimming the next time it hits 60.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Good little day for EA Sports.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Look, I'm a DKNG owner too - 10% position for me. But at some point, we need to discuss the elephant in the room.....they don't just lose money; they hemorrhage it away like I do on a college football Saturday. Is there a grown-up in the room that can implement some sort of controls or measures to turn this around?
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
General Malaise said:
Amazon model IMO.
1. Spend like crazy buying competitors and acquiring customers.
2. ???
3. Profit!
beef
Footballguy
Agreed, and I like this aggressive growth strategy. They don't just want to be in the game, they want to be the game. Total f'n disruptor.
Still going to view it more of a LT hold so I'm not too worried about profits yet.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah, but Amazon had a unique business model. Draft Kings is hardly that.....the competition is fierce. Stop spending so much on marketing and advertising - we know you're there, go make money.
Capella
Footballguy
Why is draft kings ultimately going to be any better than any other casino that will have an app in most states within the next 5 years. In Florida it seems like the Seminole Indian group will be going live with something in the next year or two. What would I need draft kings for?
Hell if I know. I’m just sitting on some shares I got in the 30s. End of October it becomes a long term gain so we’ll see how it’s doing then. I have a half share+ so not nearly as much as some in here. I like having some exposure but I’m not a big believer that the market is so gigantic that they’ll shoot the moon.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
They have more competitors with deep pockets and similar infrastructure in existence, though.
I'm not a "need my companies to be currently profitable" person. But their path to profitability is bumpy at best.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Haven't been able to spend much time on this stuff for a bit, for better or worse. Did jump on long enough the other day to write some puts:
DOCN Nov $70s @ $4.60
FLGT Oct $75s @ $1.69 (seriously thinking about closing this one already)
DOCN Nov $70s @ $4.60
FLGT Oct $75s @ $1.69 (seriously thinking about closing this one already)
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Some states are awarding contracts to DK and other sports betting sites to run it for them.
For example
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
Panic sellers during stock market dips are often married men with children
When the market drops, men who are over age 45, or are married with children or have self-described “excellent investment experience” are more prone to sell-offs, the research shows.
So now that you know: knock it off, you guys.
When the market drops, men who are over age 45, or are married with children or have self-described “excellent investment experience” are more prone to sell-offs, the research shows.
So now that you know: knock it off, you guys.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
We just want to make sure we never get to a point where we have to tell the wife we're bankrupt because we put our entire portfolio in $CUMMIES
That’s pretty funny. I fall in that group but I haven’t really budged in the big drop last March and this spring as well (for many of my investments). Most stuff I sold was because I thought they hit highs like ZM in the $500s, FSLY at $135 (lol, sorry to the 48 year old Dad in Pittsburgh who bought my shares), APPN and MDB and I reinvested, so I guess I'm doing OK.
It’s not surprising that most people outsmart themselves. There was some economist in an article in here or on a news feed who suggested paying off mortgages and taking SS later and he admitted that he sold off during March 2020 and didn’t get back in. Damn, that would really suck, waiting for another 35% drop to buy in and it never (fingers crossed) comes.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Added to ADBE and BNTX. I don't trade ADBE but have been jumping in and out of BNTX on large swings. Looking to add more GNRC if it get's into the 300's, SE in the 200's and ETSY in the 100's.
This little blurb is sometimes why some of us in here feel poor with our toys but probably are way better off than we think:
In fact, Bank of America CEO Brian Monynihan was recently quoted as saying that consumers have so much money to spend that current bank balances of “people who, before the pandemic, ran a balance of, say, $1,500 of average collective balance, or $2,000 type of range, think of that, are now sitting with $6,000 and $7,000 in their checking accounts.”
Checking account at $7k? Time to put a deposit on a Denali.
In fact, Bank of America CEO Brian Monynihan was recently quoted as saying that consumers have so much money to spend that current bank balances of “people who, before the pandemic, ran a balance of, say, $1,500 of average collective balance, or $2,000 type of range, think of that, are now sitting with $6,000 and $7,000 in their checking accounts.”
Checking account at $7k? Time to put a deposit on a Denali.
beef
Footballguy
I used to be part of that group of thinking and now I'm the total opposite. It's still a goal to be mortgage free before I retire but with mortgage rates lower than inflation and with markets booming it just doesn't make sense to pay it down.
Me too. Rates are so low. I’m just hoping when I get to buying the retirement place that rates are still low. With the recent price jumps around here, we are around 30% LTV so a real nice chunk of equity to use. Only issue is wife wanting lakefront, which would be awesome, but very likely more expensive than the current house.
Holding usually is unless you are great at timing. That said, on an individual stock basis, you may be able to time better. Also, maybe more risk. I’ve seen some of those volatile stocks jump a ton. TWLO is a large company and it was trailing a lot of other stocks I bought because it had a bad earnings or something like that. One earnings call later and it went up 40% in one day. If you miss that, it’s not close to the same return.
Even though you hit a lot of speed bumps, when you hold (as long as it’s not a #### stock, looking at you KALA) you never miss those wow it went up 10-40% today jumps.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
That's funny because that is exactly my demographic but I have always been really, really good at not panic selling. Heck, I made some good money buying beaten down stocks during the Great Recession and the Covid decline.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Same as Union County, maybe a little more. Not looking there, so far Lake Keowee/Hartwell to get ideas, but when we actually look, I plan to expand our looking. My oldest is a junior in college so he’ll likely be working and the other two in college so that might be a deciding factor. I think they’ll stay in the Southeast but who knows.Lake Wylie is in SC you know. Lower taxes.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Speaking of which, what are you thoughts on ZM now that it's way down at $260? Adding any back?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I would guess margin plays a role as well. Not many here fully leveraged to the point where a pullback is going to call the broker to come calling.
No, still have the 20 shares I didn’t sell. MF recommends them so just a long term hold for those. Still got real lucky on that sell. I think it hit $580, but I sold 100 shares at $570 on the peak day. It just felt way overextended. I haven’t thought about adding because I did so well selling most of it. It’s probably a decent long term buy but I really don’t think much about it at all since it’s such a small holding.
McBokonon
Footballguy
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
what else am I gonna do? My 401k/IRA/HSA make up about 85% of my total investments, and I'm in my late 40s so I've got quite a bit of time before I'll touch any of that.And as I've become more and more focused on building up capital in my taxable accounts so that I can retire early-ish (that 85% was about 99% until the last couple of years), a correction here isn't the worst thing as I'm at about 60% cash right now in that bucket and looking to deploy probably half of that.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
AMC up almost 10% today because #apesnotleaving trending on Twitter
McBokonon
Footballguy
I wasn't being sarcastic or anything. It really is pretty awesome when the contributions line up like that.
And as I've become more and more focused on building up capital in my taxable accounts so that I can retire early-ish (that 85% was about 99% until the last couple of years), a correction here isn't the worst thing as I'm at about 60% cash right now in that bucket and looking to deploy probably half of that.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Spending time at my AZ home, they just made sports betting legal. The tv is FLOODED with casino tv ads, many with way better promotions then Draft Kings. I hope DK has as much cash as the big boys, because it sure looks like it be a long time before they make a profit. If they have to advertise and promote like the other casinos are doing.
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
Capella said:
Here are good notes that I saw on another site regarding the subtle patterns in Sept/Oct that repeat fairly consistently:
2016 (election year) - Drop through October, intensifies late October then Nov oversold rally
2017 (market was strong and continuously went up including through historically weaker months, anomaly) - Formed low end of Aug, run-up through Feb
2018 (trade war) - Drop all of October, intensifies late October, Nov rally but not as strong as previous Nov oversold rallies. However, happened during volatility during trade war so abnormal price action, ripped hard Jan onwards
2019 - Formed Low end of Aug, run-up until mid-Sept, formed low very early Oct
2020 (election year) - Sharp drop through September, rebound through mid October, sharp drop until end of October then Nov oversold rally with drop in Feb 2021
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McBokonon
Footballguy
Well FFS, those hedge fund bastards took $80 a share from me. That’s it, it’s all meme stocks for me in this rigged game.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I'm never buying a pharma stock again. Moderna bringing pain.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I've been reading The Black Swan and learning more about how hedge funds go both long and short in order to maximize their ROI. The crux of the biscuit and what I am writing about in this post is the following: the hedge funds cover themselves on the downside in such a way as to get "explosive returns" (their words) when the inevitable correction hits. They're not trying to time it, but they pay for hedges that go bananas on big downturns. Maybe you saw the gaudy >100x returns from Ackman in a Covid trade, or other even more extreme examples. OK, so how does one do that?
As a retail trader, I have access to buying puts on the SPY but 1) they are relatively expensive even on a short term basis and 2) they do not yield the same kind of explosive growth even if you do get the timing right. I hear words like "swaps" swirling around but have no idea how those work or if retail schmucks like us have access to them. If I was a hedge fund manager, I would not want the common man to know how to achieve those explosive returns during a correction so it is no surprise that the recipe is not printed for all to see. But surely the hive-mind of FBG's best can come up with a trading strategy to mimic what the hedge funds are doing. Thanks for your thoughts.
As a retail trader, I have access to buying puts on the SPY but 1) they are relatively expensive even on a short term basis and 2) they do not yield the same kind of explosive growth even if you do get the timing right. I hear words like "swaps" swirling around but have no idea how those work or if retail schmucks like us have access to them. If I was a hedge fund manager, I would not want the common man to know how to achieve those explosive returns during a correction so it is no surprise that the recipe is not printed for all to see. But surely the hive-mind of FBG's best can come up with a trading strategy to mimic what the hedge funds are doing. Thanks for your thoughts.
Sand
Footballguy
And yet, with precious few exceptions (Jim Simons), hedge funds have dramatically underperformed the market over the last decade. I'll take plain Jane SPY - shaken, not stirred.
Sand
Footballguy
I remember a story a while back that the stock portfolios of Senators are wildly profitable. This is a sound strategy.
