TripItUp
Footballguy
This is a short term trade for me...I will likely sell tomorrow...will post what I do.
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Stock Thread (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
This is a short term trade for me...I will likely sell tomorrow...will post what I do.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
AMD is about as consistent as they come. Always a top and bottom beat and they also raised the revenue growth for their outlook.
They have had a little bit of a runup into earnings but I can't imagine this will stay down for long.
Lisa Siu seems confident about the merger going through, have no reason not to trust her. Thinking about moving some more of my AMD to Xilinx too
BassNBrew
Footballguy
That’s a risk but there’s a 20% buffer and AMD beat and raised Q4. They are firing well so it’s seems like a decent play. I’ve got 100 shares of XLNX from last June so I’m looking forward to having it done. It’s an IRA and I’d love to use it elsewhere and maybe just keep 1/4 of it in AMD.
Even in Motley Fool, where I got the rev, they have it as a hold. Pretty sure these are all holds because it’s being acquired. The “upside” is gone because it’ll be part of AMD but it’s not a sell because of the premium. I was just thinking that AMD seems confident because it’s late October so saying it’ll close this year is pretty firm guidance.
The General
Footballguy
GOOG earnings seem to be a big snooze.
Anxiously awaiting AMZN later this week.
Anxiously awaiting AMZN later this week.
Interesting cyber security article:
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/cybersecurity-stocks/?src=A00220
I know I’ve been thinking some stocks might be extended but it looks like 2022 has a good chance to increase the entire market hopefully continuing nice growth for the leaders. Between ZS, OKTA and CRWD, I have about 7% or so of my overall investments in them. It’s been a nice run so far, especially ZS up 600%.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/cybersecurity-stocks/?src=A00220
I know I’ve been thinking some stocks might be extended but it looks like 2022 has a good chance to increase the entire market hopefully continuing nice growth for the leaders. Between ZS, OKTA and CRWD, I have about 7% or so of my overall investments in them. It’s been a nice run so far, especially ZS up 600%.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The General said:
I'll spoil it for you. They're either...
A) The absolute best earnings ever where they smash expectations and are basically ruling the world. In this case it will go up 2-3% after-hours, and then all the way back down to where it started by mid-day the following day.
B) Something short of the absolute best earnings ever. Maybe only really really really really really reaaaalllly good. In this case it will drop by 3% after hours and then fade for a couple more days after.
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Capella
Footballguy
Yea. We made a trillion dollars this quarter but the street expected a trillion and one dollars. The stock is now down 7% after hours.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
The General
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
ready because it will blow through that.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
If we're going to bet beers, it sounds like we need a Charlotte area meetup to collect.
Overall, I think people underestimate the degree to which AMD's Ryzen series is displacing Intel in gaming.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
You could be right. If people are more confident that the deal will close then you could see that. Not sure it would be enough to move the stock because it could trigger taxable events and AMD has risen a lot. It depends on if people read into the earnings info or not. When they announce the final approval (China) and when XLNX will stop trading, it will pop probably 15% but AMD could have floated down, who knows.
I wish I bought it way back when, but damn it’s expensive. It’s starting to get close to a trillion in value and the P/S for current sales is 30. That’s way above other huge caps. Microsoft is a software company, so likely much higher margins than Nvidia, and it’s P/S is less than 15. Amazon is about 4. Apple is about 6 and they are hardware and software. Google is about 8.
Nvidia is growing a ton, but it feels really stretched to me and in the recent past it’s had down years growth wise. I think this is their peak growth so I could see a big pull back if they hit a flat patch.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Thanks, good points. Technically though, it's telling a different story. There's got to be things in the pipeline, down the road, whatever, that is causing this kind of accumulation. I bet they blow out a bunch of numbers/quarters, making that P/S a lot less than 30 going forward. And/or they're positioning to dominate some space(s) that have not / can not be seen, generally, by the overall market yet.
Agreed, just wondering with the crypto mining binge, how much did that add that maybe doesn’t keep happening or grow. They just seem really extended now and you only have to go back to 2020 for a year where their revenue went down year over year. I wish I had bought it last March at $190, pre-split, but you can’t buy everything. I just don’t think I’d buy it now at $250 post split. It’s not going anywhere but I’m not sure they can keep up the growth as big as 2021.
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
I got in on the recent dip to $200 so I'm rolling with it, regardless. A bunch of articles the last few days out saying how they're actually not going to be as tied to crypto going forward, as a positive and maybe part of the reason for the move. How factual that is, I don't know, but I like that chart (and the co), regardless.
You might be following different stocks but MSFT, BA, KO and MCD are all up and that covers a broad swath of companies. HOOD is taking it on the chin but their results were frankly bad.
I have no clue. I think company wise they are clearly solid but I was taken aback when I realized how high their market cap was. Makes me think about Tesla. I understand the love but at the end of the day it is a car company. Microsoft and other companies like them (Google/FB) are high margin businesses (or like Amazon have a big chunk of high margin in AWS/Prime/Ads). You only need so many coders to build out products and if you sell more or get more subscriptions maybe you have to add servers/etc. but you maintain high margins. Tesla has to build a car to make more money. You can squeeze margins but when you are making a car you can’t squeeze like software, the material/manufacturing costs can increase too. Nvidia margins would be interesting to see as they clearly have a cost for every sale but they may have software sales as well. One reason why I’ve been bullish on Amazon still is that people think they are a retailer first but half of their $400B in revenue is high margin business, not just their own low margin retail. Their free cash flow is huge if you ignore how much they reinvest because selling ads, AWS, Prime Video and 3rd party fees can go up without that “manufacturing/material” costs eating away on every new customer. That’s why Apple has been pushing so hard on their services. They make a killing on the phones but it’s lower (still a cash cow) margin and at some point the growth potential slows to a crawl and it has already.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don’t own this individually although I’m sure they make a nice chunk of my 401ks.
I’m having a weird day where I’m down like 0.7% but every stock that has had actual news, it’s been good. XLNX and TER are up on positive closing and earnings. SEDG up big because ENPH had great earnings (both had solid reports last quarter).
Seems like big tech (even AMZN is green) is up but all the rest is down. Big tech is just so huge that the Nasdaq is up a little.
The General
Footballguy
MasterCard down even more, and they don't report until tomorrow morning. :XI didn't check the Visa call. Did they say they were going under? Beat on earnings, down 5.42%.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Does it charge a card or does it direct debit out of a bank account? I've never used it but if it's the latter then it would bypass MC/V entirely.
kevzilla
Footballguy
My understanding was a debit card would be produced at the point of sale. But I've been wrong about plenty of other things.
Here's a fun earnings report. TWLO is down 10% AHs. You'd think, maybe they barfed it like HOOD. Welp, here's the result:
Twilio (TWLO) said it earned 1-cent per share on an adjusted basis vs. a 4-cent profit in the year-earlier period. Revenue jumped 65% to $740.2 million, including acquisitions, said the communications software maker.
Analysts had estimated Twilio would report a 14-cent loss on revenue of $681 million.
How do you pummel the numbers that much and drop 10% you might ask? Well, their COO is stepping down. I'm sure he's a smart guy, but he's made millions I'm sure since he worked as COO at Salesforce before that, but Salesforce sure didn't fall apart when he left to Twilio 4 years ago. If it was their visionary CEO/founder or their CFO, after saying they need to restate revenue, leaving then I could see it, but losing 10% in market cap for a COO?
Twilio (TWLO) said it earned 1-cent per share on an adjusted basis vs. a 4-cent profit in the year-earlier period. Revenue jumped 65% to $740.2 million, including acquisitions, said the communications software maker.
Analysts had estimated Twilio would report a 14-cent loss on revenue of $681 million.
How do you pummel the numbers that much and drop 10% you might ask? Well, their COO is stepping down. I'm sure he's a smart guy, but he's made millions I'm sure since he worked as COO at Salesforce before that, but Salesforce sure didn't fall apart when he left to Twilio 4 years ago. If it was their visionary CEO/founder or their CFO, after saying they need to restate revenue, leaving then I could see it, but losing 10% in market cap for a COO?
TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp said:
Took a 5% loss on AXLA...thought it would have more run overnight than it did.
Man, there's not a lot that I like out there right now. Finding it hard to get excited about anything sans crypto. My default when this happens has been QQQE which is my largest position right now.
I'm watching Twitter closely...could be some value there if it keeps tanking.
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Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Ford had really good earnings, up 8% after hours. Also reinstating dividend
BassNBrew
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I agree although Im good with what I have. Maybe the forecast of lower earnings (raised revenue) scared some. They acquired a few companies and often there are extra expenses but they are still in big growth (60-80% this year) mode now so losing a little bit more won’t matter 5 years from now. I am holding them for long term.
