Capella
Footballguy
I mean it’s stupid that the market is up big and something we all knew was going to happen (the variant appears) and all of a sudden there’s a sell-off. I guess I don’t get the mentality.
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Stock Thread (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Huh? Markets still green and MRNA down almost 9%. My future love FLGT is still way down even though it would roll up another ton of money if Omniricorcrom ends up being very bad. If it’s as bad as MRNA thinks FLGT may bank roll enough to have their market cap in cash sitting on their books.
McBokonon
Footballguy
“We are still gathering information as this is still very new…”
(Good. Need to be level-headed and not cause a panic unnec…)
”Now allow me to toss out some ideas on terrible things that COULD happen to fill this information vacuum.”
(Sonofa…)
BassNBrew
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
stbugs said:
So what you’re saying is that the markets seem to disagree and the volatility is unreal?
Suck it 3Almonds2Mice!
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Disney keeps dropping. I'm already underwater but will add a little more.
Pipes
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I thought today was a brutal day like 4 hours ago and my daily loss has almost tripled since then.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Don’t usually time things THIS well but I’m probably ready to start moving this money back in, though slowly. CRWD reports after the close, so I might start there after it gets completely obliterated for having a great quarter. Looking a SHOP again, maybe TWLO, mostly thinking about just adding to existing positions otherwise.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Well, today was a giant kick to the baby maker. From up 3% to down 2%. Thanks Obama.
Todem
Footballguy
Dow is down 7.2% from all time high
S&P 500 down just shy of 5% from all time high.
Russell 2000 down 12% from all time high.
VIX spiking hard up 18% today.
Far from over.
If this continues (as I expect we will have multiple chances at buying good dips) I will post a list here once we start nibbling in on positions we feel are representing long term value and growth. I have added several new names after doing a lot of research on some growth names that really were frothy but are coming down hard (high beta tech names to be more specific).
Might be an early Christmas buying stocks.....maybe this came sooner than I thought.....but not surprising. Right now it feels like 4th quarter 2018 light. A lot lighter....but it could get ugly quickly.
This is far more than a new variant. The new variant was the spark that was needed to light the fuse.
So sit tight if you built cash when I gave that signal a few weeks back.
S&P 500 down just shy of 5% from all time high.
Russell 2000 down 12% from all time high.
VIX spiking hard up 18% today.
Far from over.
If this continues (as I expect we will have multiple chances at buying good dips) I will post a list here once we start nibbling in on positions we feel are representing long term value and growth. I have added several new names after doing a lot of research on some growth names that really were frothy but are coming down hard (high beta tech names to be more specific).
Might be an early Christmas buying stocks.....maybe this came sooner than I thought.....but not surprising. Right now it feels like 4th quarter 2018 light. A lot lighter....but it could get ugly quickly.
This is far more than a new variant. The new variant was the spark that was needed to light the fuse.
So sit tight if you built cash when I gave that signal a few weeks back.
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Damn you got two monkeys, although I’m in the high 4s down. Even the stocks that did well and raised guidance got pummeled.My portfolio down 7.2% today
This feels like an over reaction to the variant IMO. Fundamentals have not changed. Inflation is still a concern as is the debt ceiling talks though.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Great call.
I got half my cash back in today on stocks that were down double digits today and around 20% from the point I exited. di
Also added some value stocks...How much lower is LYB going to go? A PE of 3? Dividend is 5.4% and they haven't decreased it in the last decade. At some point these dividend funds are going to start buying.
Todem
Footballguy
Whatever it may be.....it does not matter. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
A snowball.
So we will take advantage of whatever anyone wants to call it. The point is.....there are other headwinds inside this and I cannot stress enough that markets do not react well to changes in monetary policy.
Fuse was lit by the variant. But the fire is the recalibration of monetary policy.
Inflation is at a 30 year high. Understand that well. Wages going up.....prices going up....not good for stock multiples short term.
Again....I am here giving some free advice and told everyone I was building cash (not selling out....just crating another asset class in the portfolio by taking some deep profits, shedding some losers, and also really reducing any fixed income (bond funds) into CASH.
A great asset class when these forces are brewing.
I expect the Market to end 2022 higher than where we close 2021......but in between a nice sale....take advantage of the sale....go long.
Rinse and repeat.
I am an active manager....not an index guy. So you are getting an active manager's perspective.
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah the needle on value stocks is not moving at all......it's like none wants a boring dividend paying utility or chemical company!!!! LYB is golden long term.
The real image being done in small caps and now bleeding into large high flying tech is evident and will continue some more. We have not seen capitulation but that VIX spike today is a nice indicator of what is to come. It will be fast. But man it will be fun and provide great value and long term opportunity.
You're assuming that the fundamentals were good enough to support the lofty valuations to begin with, and I would argue that these concerns could make the fundamentals worse (and the market is forward looking).
Selling off from all time highs makes sense to me- valuations are very high, and there are potentially some very real headwinds going forward. What makes zero sense to me is a massive intraday selloff when the first variant case is confirmed here. That should have been a complete nothingburger.
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Understood and appreciate your posts in here. I think we have some time before the Fed starts tightening though. This could just as easily hit new highs by year end before hitting a 10% correction. I agree that we are long overdue though and it should happen in next 6 months.
Valuations were high no doubt. The low interest rates however supported the valuations. Take those away and we will see a correction. I just don't think the Fed will do anything until late spring/summer at the earliest.
Todem
Footballguy
We are on the same page.
But keep in mind the market is proactive to policy change....not reactive (well may be little) we could very well sell off 10%.....then come back 5%.....go sideways then the first rate hike hits.....another 10% selloff. Next thing you know we are down 15%.
That is why this stuff is hard to time....and I make no bones about trying to time it. But I also like to be proactive in building cash when I see the tea leaves speaking to me loudly....so I am a little early....I do year end rebalancing every year like clockwork...no emotion and this year we made it a policy mandate to have a 20-30% cash sleeve as part of the 2021 year end rebalance in anticipation of some violent days and dips.
Should be very interesting to see how this plays out.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Tightening is already underway as expectation of rate increases/faster tapering in the future increases the dollar and short end of the rate curve today. The yield curve has flattened dramatically since mid-Nov. As always, monetary policy is transmitted largely through the expectations channel.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
Yep, my hot dog cart is filled with Apph, SE, Tlry, Hgen, Bark, Flgt, Sklz. Most down 8%+. Good times.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
It's as if the NFL just cancelled the rest of the season and all of 2022-2030 games.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The nice thing about owning Draftkings is this is just like any other day for it.
Market tanks = Draftkings down 6-10%
Market flat = Draftkings down 6-10%
Market bounces = Draftkings down 6-10%
In these volatile times, it's nice to have something where you always know what you're gonna get.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I have to say I really HATE how taxes affect my investing. They end up costing me way more money in the long run than just the cost of the tax itself.
I would have loved to take some more off the table at Todem's advice, but my tax bill is already huge this year from taking some off the table before the September drop and I couldn't stomach making it even larger, as it was mostly stuff I was way in the green on that I wanted to trim to free up cash.
I know in the long run just HODLing companies I believe in works just as well, but man I have to say having a bunch of powder freed up back in September (which is a big part of the reason I already have this big tax bill that I don't want to make any larger) was freaking fun, going shopping on a discount. I am going to miss that this time around while everyone else has fun with it. And a lot of those discount positions were wiped out back to almost where I bought at a discount just in the last few days.
I'll still add some, but they will be small positions as I don't really have the cash freed up to create any new "real" positions.
Would have been nice if this week could have waited until the new year when taxes reset, but between trying to eek out another month to get capital gains to long term on a position and waiting another month to get to a fresh tax year I have really missed on selling the top on some positions when I felt like it was the time to sell.
I would have loved to take some more off the table at Todem's advice, but my tax bill is already huge this year from taking some off the table before the September drop and I couldn't stomach making it even larger, as it was mostly stuff I was way in the green on that I wanted to trim to free up cash.
I know in the long run just HODLing companies I believe in works just as well, but man I have to say having a bunch of powder freed up back in September (which is a big part of the reason I already have this big tax bill that I don't want to make any larger) was freaking fun, going shopping on a discount. I am going to miss that this time around while everyone else has fun with it. And a lot of those discount positions were wiped out back to almost where I bought at a discount just in the last few days.
I'll still add some, but they will be small positions as I don't really have the cash freed up to create any new "real" positions.
Would have been nice if this week could have waited until the new year when taxes reset, but between trying to eek out another month to get capital gains to long term on a position and waiting another month to get to a fresh tax year I have really missed on selling the top on some positions when I felt like it was the time to sell.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Fixed.
Draftkings problem is that the chiefs are tech guys and not business guys. Now you can pull this off if your tech guys really smart and aren't a bunch of FF nerds who honed their business acumen in their parents basement watching football and drinking beer.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
If possible, you need to trade in your IRA and move your savings into indexes or real estate. Nothing like a good rental home to reduce your tax bill.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Same here as mentioned earlier. Decided to hold for same reasons as I am already expecting a huge tax bill from selling SE position. Even long term rate sucks.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
For me it was less taxes and more just clearing off stuff. I did sell a decent amount although I wish I dumped all the stuff that wasn’t cord so I could wait for a nice entry point for stuff I really want long term. I did dump DKNG and others well but I could have gone all out. I’ve got about double in my IRA compared to taxable (in trading accounts) so taxes aren’t a big deal. I’ve got 20%+ cash and probably 60%+ in long term gains in taxable. Even with long term, I don’t really feel the need to sell to give Uncle Sam money. I’d like to keep it long term and maybe even get to quasi retirement where maybe you have a year without income and can get some 0% cap gains. $80k is 0% level for married/joint. Most of what I own is long term so we’ll see.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
A lot of stocks getting slaughtered in this downturn. SP500 and Nasdaq would look much worse if not for a couple big companies being held up.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I will be awaiting the bat signal Todem (and others).
All cash in my Roth the moment. Not a huge amount of money but enough to make it worth while.
All cash in my Roth the moment. Not a huge amount of money but enough to make it worth while.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Ridgeback
Footballguy
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah I took some cash out earlier this year and bought two rental properties. And took some out to play around with crypto.
That's why I like trading in the non-retirement accounts more, because I can actually take some of the profits out to have fun with.
Most of my retirement money is locked up in a 401k where all I can do is choose from a few different mutual funds anyway.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
I had that situation for years and kept losing ground to the market. 95% of these funds under achieve and these companies spend good money to take your HR execs golfing to get them to accept crappy fund options.
Congrats on the rental properties. If you ever need advice, hit me up. I own a PM company.
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McBokonon
Footballguy
You didn’t ask me but it’s something I’ve never owned, always watched, and am excited to start scaling into soon.
