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On 12/2/2021 at 5:50 AM, McBokonon said:

$DWAC has a double whammy of MEME stock and a cult following of the guy associated with it. I’m following the story because it’s funny. “We’ll have that social media app launched any day now! It’s gonna be amazing and awesome and LOOK OVER THERE!” :steals bags of money, runs:

Trump SPAC under investigation by federal regulators, including SEC

The publicly traded SPAC that has announced plans to merge with former President Donald Trump’s new social media company said in a new filing that the SEC and FINRA regulatory agencies have asked for information regarding stock trading and communications with Trump’s company before the deal was announced.

1. Super predictable given the background of the people involved with this thing.

 2. Honestly, though, there’s really no shortage of obvious scams out there, similar to this, that just continue to exist so I won’t really besmirch MAGA Nation for feeling singled out here.

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7 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I know most of us said we'd never sell AAPL but what exactly have they done over the last 2 months to grow their business by half a trillion dollars? 

I’m not sure I get it either. They’ve been moving opposite the entire tech sector lately. Then again I don’t get a lot! It’s funny to see FLGT go down with a new variant spreading fast. Maybe it won’t create lock downs but it sure seems their testing free money train might not stop as soon. Also, AMZN I can never get. Sometimes they are a COVID stock, sometimes tech and occasionally retail. It goes up when I think it might be down and vice versa.

I noticed the same thing on AAPL as you so you aren’t wrong in wondering. Until AMC stock stops going up because of an offer for a really stupid looking NFT, I’ll stick to long term because I’m awful day to day. I mean ZS has done everything right lately including a great report a week ago but for some reason it’s down 10%. I guess cyber security doesn’t matter anymore, who knows.

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I know most of us said we'd never sell AAPL but what exactly have they done over the last 2 months to grow their business by half a trillion dollars? 

Not sure they are doing anything except printing money faster than they can get rid of it. Having $200 B in cash on hand gives the stock some safety IMO and gives Apple multiple opportunities to up the divi, continue buybacks, buy growth, etc. 

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24 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

Not sure they are doing anything except printing money faster than they can get rid of it. Having $200 B in cash on hand gives the stock some safety IMO and gives Apple multiple opportunities to up the divi, continue buybacks, buy growth, etc. 

 

Is that really any different than several months ago? 

Since October 1st Apple has added the entire worth of JP Morgan to its market cap. 

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

 

Is that really any different than several months ago? 

Since October 1st Apple has added the entire worth of JP Morgan to its market cap. 

 

And the 12 months prior Apple was up 4% while there earnings were up around 80%.  The PE rose from 25 to 29 but still lags the S&P500 sitting at 35.

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7 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

 

And the 12 months prior Apple was up 4% while there earnings were up around 80%.  The PE rose from 25 to 29 but still lags the S&P500 sitting at 35.

S&P 500 PE is not 35.  That would imply earnings of $131.  2021 S&P earnings are looking like $214 which puts the PE at 21

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

It will be interesting to see if today was the start of a real bounce or just a liquidity trap.  I don't really see anything that's changed in concerns about rising rates or tapering, so I'm guessing the latter.  But I hope I am wrong.

 

I'm pretty bearish until we have a major correction.   I would not be in anything with a high multiple right now(well advertised by media)

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I don't see anything that changed either, but I'm not seeing a major correction without a significant catalyst.  Frothy markets, Fed easing/rates hikes, The Omnicron, inflation...  These are little scares or things we knew would happen months ago.  I'll take caution but none of them are going to make me panic.  I'm staying bullish and will buy these dips.  If I'm wrong, I guess I just buy more.       

Edited by beef
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1 hour ago, beef said:

I don't see anything that changed either, but I'm not seeing a major correction without a significant catalyst.  Frothy markets, Fed easing/rates hikes, The Omnicron, inflation...  These are little scares or things we knew would happen months ago.  I'll take caution but none of them are going to make me panic.  I'm staying bullish and will buy these dips.  If I'm wrong, I guess I just buy more.       

Exactly why I built some cash before Black Friday.

We were able to add high multiple names we love long term at 20% discounts:

CRM

SHOP

NVDA

ADSK

AMD

V

MA

But not full positions….we will have more

volatility. Plenty still yet to come in 2022 make no mistake. It has been a buy the dip market for 12 years running.

 

I am an eternal bull always have been….but I am paid to make tactical moves too. We saw a chance to trim some profits and also trim fixed income as we all know what happens to bond prices in a rising interest rate environment.

 

Edited by Todem
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Just want to point out that the VIX as a buy/sell signal continues to dominate.  I am going to try to figure out just how strong this is and maybe start trading to it.  

Selling with VIX <20 and buying with VIX>30 is +++++EV 

Probably there is a way to refine this to something like 16/35 or so to maximize.  

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Last chance to board the GME rocket is now. Earnings get released tomorrow after market closes. Earnings should be solid (increased sales, but possibly still negative earnings). But it's clearing the SEC quiet period that proceeds earnings that will launch this rocketship.

The long-awaited partnership with Loopring crypto (LRC) for their NFT marketplace is going to get deployed soon after the earnings call. This was waiting on Loopring's counter-factual wallet and fiat onramp (both rumored to be complete).  

The shorts never closed. And now we get to see what idiosyncratic risk looks like when Gamestop was shorted to 10-15X the actual shares. Infinite risk starts now.

Destination: Another galaxy.

 

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8 minutes ago, Steeler said:

 

What are your thoughts on buying XLNX instead of AMD directly?  It's worth about 10% right now assuming the deal goes through.  

Lisa Su seemed pretty sure in November that the deal would close by end of the year (China approval is all that’s left) and some other info seems to support that. The discount was as high as 20% so seems like the market is more confident as well. I’m sitting on XLNX and waiting and 10-13% seems like a nice bonus for the risk.

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14 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Lisa Su seemed pretty sure in November that the deal would close by end of the year (China approval is all that’s left) and some other info seems to support that. The discount was as high as 20% so seems like the market is more confident as well. I’m sitting on XLNX and waiting and 10-13% seems like a nice bonus for the risk.

 

I have XLNX in one account but I'm considering adding more in another account... if the deal goes through is it going to be a sell the news kind of event?  I know nobody knows for sure, but is there any sentiment about what happens when the deal goes through (or what happens if the deal doesn't go through)?

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35 minutes ago, Steeler said:

 

What are your thoughts on buying XLNX instead of AMD directly?  It's worth about 10% right now assuming the deal goes through.  

AMD is my long term investment. Their fundamentals are incredibly strong. 

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1 minute ago, Steeler said:

 

I have XLNX in one account but I'm considering adding more in another account... if the deal goes through is it going to be a sell the news kind of event?  I know nobody knows for sure, but is there any sentiment about what happens when the deal goes through (or what happens if the deal doesn't go through)?

No idea. You have to think it’s built in and to be honest I think there would be a little bit of a relief rally but likely not much since AMD has gone up a bunch.

AMD has gone up so much that I’ll likely sell some of it. I’ve got 100 XLNX shares that I got at $96, so that would be a nice chunk of AMD. Probably sell at least half. AMD isn’t crazy expensive for its growth, not like NVDA.

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38 minutes ago, stbugs said:

No idea. You have to think it’s built in and to be honest I think there would be a little bit of a relief rally but likely not much since AMD has gone up a bunch.

AMD has gone up so much that I’ll likely sell some of it. I’ve got 100 XLNX shares that I got at $96, so that would be a nice chunk of AMD. Probably sell at least half. AMD isn’t crazy expensive for its growth, not like NVDA.

No AMD is not. But don’t be scared of NVDA.

Let’s compare the giant gorilla that is AMZN (which I have owned for a very long time and will probably the rest of my life) with NVDA. Two different business’s in a lot of ways.....but let’s look:

AMZN

Rev Growth - 31%

Gross Margins - 41%

Return on Equity - 26%

Net Margins - 5.7%

Debt to Capitol - 35%

Current PE - 69

Forward PE - 87

 

NVDA

Rev Growth - 64%

Gross Margins - 64%

Return on Equity - 42%

Net Margins - 34%

Debt to Capitol - 26%

Current PE - 98

Forward PE - 60

 

NVDA has a massive runway of growth.....hence the risk premium. The stock will be 3-4 times higher than it is now within 5 years. So we missed the first 100%.....I am in for the next 400%. 

Don't let a stock like this get away from you when the fundamentals are screaming incredible growth and runway for this new large cap tech. 

Think about all those people back in 2010 and 2011 who were scoffing at Apples $300 a share price tag.....they missed an historic run up that is still going.....and going and going. 

Why do I like NVDA, SHOP, CRM, ADSK and AMD?

MOAT. 

I want growth stocks with a wide moat. I am willing to step in (on dips like I did here) and take positions in high growth with wide moat. Stocks with no moat (DOCU, Peleton, Zoom etc) get slaughtered at some point. 

Anyway.....while I agree NVDA is expensive......it actually is not long term. Not at all. But you gotta pick your spots when taking a new position on high fliers. This recent slaughter on the Nasdaq was that kind of sale we look for. 

I look for more sales/dips in 2022 because they will happen. Just got be ready when they do. 

Edited by Todem
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1 hour ago, David Dodds said:

Last chance to board the GME rocket is now. Earnings get released tomorrow after market closes. Earnings should be solid (increased sales, but possibly still negative earnings). But it's clearing the SEC quiet period that proceeds earnings that will launch this rocketship

Destination: Another galaxy.

 

 

I wouldn't even know what to wear. 

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35 minutes ago, Todem said:

No AMD is not. But don’t be scared of NVDA.

Let’s compare the giant gorilla that is AMZN (which I have owned for a very long time and will probably the rest of my life) with NVDA. Two different business’s in a lot of ways.....but let’s look:

AMZN

Rev Growth - 31%

Gross Margins - 41%

Return on Equity - 26%

Net Margins - 5.7%

Debt to Capitol - 35%

Current PE - 69

Forward PE - 87

 

NVDA

Rev Growth - 64%

Gross Margins - 64%

Return on Equity - 42%

Net Margins - 34%

Debt to Capitol - 26%

Current PE - 98

Forward PE - 60

 

NVDA has a massive runway of growth.....hence the risk premium. The stock will be 3-4 times higher than it is now within 5 years. So we missed the first 100%.....I am in for the next 400%. 

Don't let a stock like this get away from you when the fundamentals are screaming incredible growth and runway for this new large cap tech. 

Think about all those people back in 2010 and 2011 who were scoffing at Apples $300 a share price tag.....they missed an historic run up that is still going.....and going and going. 

Why do I like NVDA, SHOP, CRM, ADSK and AMD?

MOAT. 

I want growth stocks with a wide moat. I am willing to step in (on dips like I did here) and take positions in high growth with wide moat. Stocks with no moat (DOCU, Peleton, Zoom etc) get slaughtered at some point. 

Anyway.....while I agree NVDA is expensive......it actually is not long term. Not at all. But you gotta pick your spots when taking a new position on high fliers. This recent slaughter on the Nasdaq was that kind of sale we look for. 

I look for more sales/dips in 2022 because they will happen. Just got be ready when they do. 

When I say expensive, one thing I look at is revenue + revenue growth. NVDA has AMD by like 10% (depends on future or trailing) but NVDA’s P/S is almost 3x more. NVDA was a stock I looked at at $190 last year, before the split. 🤦‍♂️ 

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I think I should peel of my XLNX now.  I did good on it, granted not as good as I would have done had I just put it into AMD but that was always part of the gamble. 

Its still decoupled from AMD and hasn't caught up yet. Although it certainly will if the acquisition goes through, I'm not sure I want exposure to the possibility of it not.

The other piece of this is the market uncertainty, probably better to just take a good win here. 

 

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35 minutes ago, Dwayne Hoover said:

I think I should peel of my XLNX now.  I did good on it, granted not as good as I would have done had I just put it into AMD but that was always part of the gamble. 

Its still decoupled from AMD and hasn't caught up yet. Although it certainly will if the acquisition goes through, I'm not sure I want exposure to the possibility of it not.

The other piece of this is the market uncertainty, probably better to just take a good win here. 

 

How would you have done materially better on AMD directly? The total difference in performance since the announcement and days after has been 3-5% range (favoring AMD) but it’s been up and down and has gotten tighter lately. The discount is close to the lowest it’s been. It was 15-20%+ most of the time. Seeing as how you still have a discount, as soon as it’s official XLNX will be the better return. I owned it before the merger so from the day before the announcement, I’m up 10% more than AMD till today with another 10-15% once it closes. At this point I wouldn’t move it to AMD because I want the extra $2-3k.

Just as a reference, I’m up 93% since the day before the announcement, AMD is up 83% and XLNX is up 78% since the market after the announcement. About a 15% extra gain if you had it before the acquisition pop. So, even if you don’t get the discount, it has been a really good return in 13 months.

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12 minutes ago, Capella said:

It’s good when stocks are up. It’s better than when they are down imo  

I think I may sell a few of my dogs into this pop and wait for this bounce to subside a bit and shove it in on better stocks.

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