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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Dude, it might work but you are setting yourself up for some potential hurt. God forbid Trump decides not to do any tariffs. TVIX down over $3 per share today. Be careful.
NREC34
Footballguy
Guys, I need advice on an idea for something to buy if tariffs get announced and China retaliates.
Right now I’m watching and trying to understand UVXY TVIX SQQQ RWM SPXU SDS and SH.
Is this a good list?
I sold all my Micron Tuesday and have a lot of cash. It seems like a lot of money could potentially be made if something really bad happens.
Right now I’m watching and trying to understand UVXY TVIX SQQQ RWM SPXU SDS and SH.
Is this a good list?
I sold all my Micron Tuesday and have a lot of cash. It seems like a lot of money could potentially be made if something really bad happens.
GoBirds
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I understand the buying today, although disagree with it - "okay, this is out of the way, resume buying..."
I even read a Marketwatch article where the author said buy any news at this point as the negatives are priced in - I'm sorry, that is the dumbest ####### thing I've ever heard. First off, Trump's base (who will be hit the hardest) love this ####, I don't see him easing back. This is going to escalate until there is blood. Second, since nobody really knows what the impact is, how can this be priced in? What we know for certain is that it is bad for consumers and therefore bad for growth, so when CAPE numbers are at historical highs, how on Earth can this be priced in?
The bond market are the only ones who appear to be proceeding with caution. Also, yield curve that I keep mentioning is down to about 28.5 basis points.
I get it, I've read the arguments, even though the inversion has successfully predicted every recession since WWII, this time would be different. Bottom line, unless the Fed changes course, watch that invert in the next 6-9 months. So a recession in late 2020 early 2021 is absolutely on the table IMO.
I even read a Marketwatch article where the author said buy any news at this point as the negatives are priced in - I'm sorry, that is the dumbest ####### thing I've ever heard. First off, Trump's base (who will be hit the hardest) love this ####, I don't see him easing back. This is going to escalate until there is blood. Second, since nobody really knows what the impact is, how can this be priced in? What we know for certain is that it is bad for consumers and therefore bad for growth, so when CAPE numbers are at historical highs, how on Earth can this be priced in?
The bond market are the only ones who appear to be proceeding with caution. Also, yield curve that I keep mentioning is down to about 28.5 basis points.
I get it, I've read the arguments, even though the inversion has successfully predicted every recession since WWII, this time would be different. Bottom line, unless the Fed changes course, watch that invert in the next 6-9 months. So a recession in late 2020 early 2021 is absolutely on the table IMO.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Careful, I had my ### handed to me about a month ago, as I was in SDS, SDOW, and QID. Lost about $7,400 all told. I've been expecting a downturn as well..."you can lose more money getting prepared for a downturn than the downturn itself"NREC34 said:
Yep. Look at Bob above. Bought 100 more shares that are down around $4 today. That’s a $3200 loss just today and around $16k overall.
Downturn will happen but timing stuff like this is too hard to go all in. Just as dangerous to be long when it turns as it is to try and time the downturn when there’s a little more left in the tank. I’m very close to taken a bunch off the shelf but I’m not betting the downturn.
NREC34
Footballguy
Well the market doesn’t seem to care about the war today and I’ve done nothing. Maybe it’s due to a good jobs report idk. That good Biogen news probably helping out too.
Dont feel comfortable buying anything either because I’m worried the rug will get pulled any time.
It would be awesome to buy something bearish today then get super bad news on the weekend ?
Sand
Footballguy
So what makes you three think this market is timed to tank? I'm genuinely curious.
All of my indicators are sitting on "They've gone to plaid".
NREC34
Footballguy
Well I’m thinking the trade war has the potential. If Trump’s plan works though it’ll explode. So yeah it’s maybe dumb to try to play it.
Sand
Footballguy
This is possible. However the way I look at it: this is about like betting on a small biotech with one drug. It's a crapshoot and you have no idea which way it's going to go. In fact, it's probably a bit worse than that as the markets, in general, go up 70% of the time. And right now the macro economics are very bullish. Just on odds I'd be more apt to fade the trade war fears.
All completely IMO.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Agreed. I believe the trade war fears are overblown. Nobody wins in trade wars, this is a short term concern and the market will recover once this is negotiated to better terms. Economy is rolling right now I would not want to be short the market right now.
Put me in the camp that is surprised by the resiliency of this bull market. And I suspect the markets will retreat (maybe massively) when Mueller comes out with his report. By my thinking, he either comes out soon, before September 1 say, to avoid the weeks around the midterms or, more likely, he waits until the midterms are over. I’m betting on the latter so I’m mostly still in the market right now. Bought some TVIX today, though...
I don’t think I said that. I just think that there could be a pull back. Maybe downturn is the wrong word. I don’t think it’ll continue at the pace it has been the past few years and I could easily see a 10% pull back like January. I haven’t pulled anything out and I’m certainly not shorting anything. I was warning them about the pitfalls of that. I’m just thinking about taking the profits at some point and refocusing. My biggest asset is about to rollover into an IRA so I’ll be cash in that in a couple weeks. I’m going to be targeting some specific stocks that I think will be excellent returns for the next 10 years.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
While I agree the trade war fears could be overblown, NATO and Russia summits, could add short-term choppiness.
Bossman
Footballguy
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Just sold one of my cars so thinking of putting a few grand more in the market vs let it sit in savings. What stocks or index funds to go with?
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
Trampco Corp out of Springfield. They're about to introduce some sort of robot butcher. Very little time to get in.Magic_Man said:
NeverEnough
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Does anyone know what company Starbucks might use for their straws after their "no more plastic straws" policy takes effect?
This seems to be all the rage now. I see many companies and communities are banning plastic. Just trying to figure out which biodegradable straw making company will benefit the most.
This seems to be all the rage now. I see many companies and communities are banning plastic. Just trying to figure out which biodegradable straw making company will benefit the most.
The General
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
It's not that they're going away from plastic straws. It's the disposable nature of the straws that is the problem. The current plan looks like this
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
It seems like it could be awhile before there is big business in biodegradable straws due to capacity. Last month. McDonald's CEO said "There isn't currently a viable alternative that's non-plastic at the moment, at the scale we need."
Also, anecdotally, one of the CNBC anchors mentioned being out to dinner an dthe kids couldn't get straws for their drinks because the restaurant stopped using plastic and the paper straws were back-ordered. I haven't seen any stories on what companies are involved
Also, anecdotally, one of the CNBC anchors mentioned being out to dinner an dthe kids couldn't get straws for their drinks because the restaurant stopped using plastic and the paper straws were back-ordered. I haven't seen any stories on what companies are involved
Bossman
Footballguy
Apparently amzn is trade war proof.
And despite what others will have you believe ... nothing crashing anytime soon.
Make hay while the sun shines .... or keep warming the bench until the game is over.
Had a bunch of TVIX ... sold in the 45's and bought back in the 39's. Still buying and selling that carp. Something to do while I watch my amzn grow.
And despite what others will have you believe ... nothing crashing anytime soon.
Make hay while the sun shines .... or keep warming the bench until the game is over.
Had a bunch of TVIX ... sold in the 45's and bought back in the 39's. Still buying and selling that carp. Something to do while I watch my amzn grow.
I honestly believe no one is sure the actual effect that the tariffs are going to have on companies, thus the see-sawing in the market of late.
Some read the headlines and automatically start selling shares in companies that may be impacted by higher cogs or sales overseas that may be lowered due to higher prices made by these taxes. Others come in a day or so later and buy the shares of companies back.
I am playing the wait and see game as I'm sure there are others, much smarter than me that can find the actual level in the price of individual stocks and earnings will of course be a better indicator of the actual effect. Guidance is a murkier issue at present, imho.
But, one thing I do believe is still being understated is the tax cuts made and how this is allowing companies to make oodles in earnings. I know a lot of big banks report tomorrow so that will be a really good indication of just how much money is being made and I am really expecting big numbers thrown about, beating estimates. That doesn't necessarily mean stock prices will jump up because I'm sure some expectations will be tempered by future earnings, but I think a lot of these earnings are going to be thrown back to shareholders in the form of dividends and bigger buy backs.
Some read the headlines and automatically start selling shares in companies that may be impacted by higher cogs or sales overseas that may be lowered due to higher prices made by these taxes. Others come in a day or so later and buy the shares of companies back.
I am playing the wait and see game as I'm sure there are others, much smarter than me that can find the actual level in the price of individual stocks and earnings will of course be a better indicator of the actual effect. Guidance is a murkier issue at present, imho.
But, one thing I do believe is still being understated is the tax cuts made and how this is allowing companies to make oodles in earnings. I know a lot of big banks report tomorrow so that will be a really good indication of just how much money is being made and I am really expecting big numbers thrown about, beating estimates. That doesn't necessarily mean stock prices will jump up because I'm sure some expectations will be tempered by future earnings, but I think a lot of these earnings are going to be thrown back to shareholders in the form of dividends and bigger buy backs.
Capella
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Agreed. One other thing to consider is that when 1st quarter earnings were reported earlier this year we were coming off a huge jump in the market in January. Earnings were very good but the market didn't push higher because valuations were already stretched. I expect earnings to be very good again this quarter and hopefully push the market higher.
Yeah, and after doing some digging, it looks like the biggest player is Aardvark Straws, which is owned by Precision Products Group...which is a private company.Mystery Achiever said:
I'm sure something will emerge at some point.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/the-fight-for-paper-straws-is-getting-fierce-in-new-york-bars
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Why aren't the cost of Twizzlers and Red Vines skyrocketing? We've had a replacement for straws for a long time. Bars, restaurants, stores... just stock up on either.
Simple solution.
Simple solution.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Anyone that knows technicals care to give a summary of CBLLF? In my eyes, it ain't pretty. I'm at about a 30% loss, and about to throw in the towel. Would love to know what's pushed the current downtrend.
had same thought, but I assume FANG = Facebook Amazon Netflx Google.
when you throw in FAANG, it includes Apple I guess.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
The other company they mention, Imperial Dade, is just a distributor., so I'm guessing they've distributed plastic straws, too. So the only bump they'd get anyway, would be if paper is higher margin.But they look private, also. You need a relatively pure play like Aardvark would have been to bump overall company performance.
The other thing to think about is what comes next after straws, i.e grocery bags, etc. I don't know anything about the economics of paper or packaging companies, but a company that makes paper bags as well as capitalizes on online shopping trends via shipping boxes could be interesting.
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Capella
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Anybody in on IQ?
DevilDog919
Footballguy
Mentioned it a few weeks ago. Got in at low 18.05 when IPO released and sold at 44.00 when trade war fears started. Got back I at 30.50.
I think it will be a good long term investment. Netflix of China, although they said they would rather be called the Disney of China.
Bossman
Footballguy
1,794.83 USD +39.83 (2.27%)
If every day was like today I could retire young.
and I keep telling myself this amzn is too good to be true. It has to flip at some point.
Doesn't seem fair that I'm making all this money doing nothing.
