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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

200 more at $48.89 for 700 at $66.54

It was either this or sell stocks I really don't want to sell at this time. 
tvix is on sale Bob. These prices can't be beat!

Assuming this stuff is slowly bleeding itself to $0 (or the next reverse split) , what worked for me was shorting my own shares.

Sold in the $45's and bought them back in the $39's. Nice way to lower cost basis by $5 or $6 a share. Of course, it's always a gamble trying to time it.

... but what I've noticed is that the tvix spikes are now always falling back to (and a little below) where they began. I believe that the 38.73 today is an all time low? 

A mini-market correction after todays run might have tvix creep up to a good dumping point again. I was excited to see 45's a couple weeks ago and think it went as high as 60?

 
On paper, yes. And if you sell, ?
hmmm .... might be a good selling point here.

up $42 in one session today... has to correct a bit tomorrow, no?

Maybe it drops $25 or $30 tomorrow and I can get back in ...  up $2000-2400.

Tried this last month, got cold feet. Cost me $800. Had I held my ground, it would have worked as the price took a big dip a week later.

 
tvix is on sale Bob. These prices can't be beat!

Assuming this stuff is slowly bleeding itself to $0 (or the next reverse split) , what worked for me was shorting my own shares.

Sold in the $45's and bought them back in the $39's. Nice way to lower cost basis by $5 or $6 a share. Of course, it's always a gamble trying to time it.

... but what I've noticed is that the tvix spikes are now always falling back to (and a little below) where they began. I believe that the 38.73 today is an all time low? 

A mini-market correction after todays run might have tvix creep up to a good dumping point again. I was excited to see 45's a couple weeks ago and think it went as high as 60?
I’m not a bettor like that. Bob doubled down and has lost $2k more. He’s down over $20k based on the 800 he has. May go back up at some point but he’d be up thousands based the amount he bet if he just threw it at an index fund. 

 
I’m not a bettor like that. Bob doubled down and has lost $2k more. He’s down over $20k based on the 800 he has. May go back up at some point but he’d be up thousands based the amount he bet if he just threw it at an index fund. 
You're assuming those positions serve no other purpose.

 
I'm a total dope when it comes to this so when does this FAANG run stop? Of course nobody knows but It's crazy how it just keeps charging, there has to be some giant sell off soon.

Anyone in here jumping out? Just moving the stops up? 

 
I shake my head every time I see the NFLX price. Rumors of missing Q2 earnings are moving the price a little...might sell half my shares and buy back if it gets down to 385. 

 
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Just sold one of my cars so thinking of putting a few grand more in the market vs let it sit in savings. What stocks or index funds to go with?
Hey, MM. Curious what you decided to do with this money?

Also, could you share your time frame and risk tolerance for this money (going for a home run or looking for more stability).?

 
Hey, MM. Curious what you decided to do with this money?

Also, could you share your time frame and risk tolerance for this money (going for a home run or looking for more stability).?
Nothing yet. Not sure if I should just buy a couple shares of Amazon or a few of Apple or something else (No idea what else would be good, though) It's only $7k. I'd be looking to make some money with it over the next few months to a year. Nothing long term unless I found something awesome for the long haul.

 
Nothing yet. Not sure if I should just buy a couple shares of Amazon or a few of Apple or something else (No idea what else would be good, though) It's only $7k. I'd be looking to make some money with it over the next few months to a year. Nothing long term unless I found something awesome for the long haul.
Are you worried about loss of principle or is this lottery ticket money? Hard to argue with the AMZN longs since its making new highs with no overhead resistance.The mean growth earning estimates seems to be about 60% for next fiscal year. PE would go from 141 to 90. That's huge growth but 90 compared to SP500 15 future year p/e estimate is still pretty rich. Maybe find a more conservative play with those high flying FANG/cloud stocks like SKYY: First Trust Cloud Computing ETF. That way if one stock stumbles vs the overall tech market you wont get run over. Of course, if the Nasdaq tanks this will tank more. 4.7% is AMZN, 4.5% Google, 4.5% FB, 2.4% AAPL, etc.

What do others think?

 
Are you worried about loss of principle or is this lottery ticket money? Hard to argue with the AMZN longs since its making new highs with no overhead resistance.The mean growth earning estimates seems to be about 60% for next fiscal year. PE would go from 141 to 90. That's huge growth but 90 compared to SP500 15 future year p/e estimate is still pretty rich. Maybe find a more conservative play with those high flying FANG/cloud stocks like SKYY: First Trust Cloud Computing ETF. That way if one stock stumbles vs the overall tech market you wont get run over. Of course, if the Nasdaq tanks this will tank more. 4.7% is AMZN, 4.5% Google, 4.5% FB, 2.4% AAPL, etc.

What do others think?
More concerned w/loss of principle.

 
Didn't the same thing happen a year or so ago? Price dipped after bad subscription news, then went right back up.

Buying opportunity? 
numbers were lower than projected, but still up. not sure I get the 10+% free fall.

 
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numbers were lower than projected, but still up. not sure I get the 10+% free fall.
Dive into it. 

https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/quarterly_reports/2018/q2/FINAL-Q2-18-Shareholder-Letter.pdf

Look at the forecasts, those Q3 forecasts don't demand a P/E of like 250 or 300. Buying opportunity down the line, but this thing might have to come back down to Earth. Only reason their EPS was even .85 was due to a net gain of $85MM bc of currency conversion on a Eurobond.

These numbers and forecasts were not pretty, and when something is up over 100% YTD, it better be super pretty. 

 
Growth rate predictions get dramatically shifted when the exponent changes.  This is a 100% growth story - so I can see a big drop on this news.
Agreed. Underwhelming numbers is extra bad when the stock has been going up non-stop. The stock has extra growth/multiples built in so a miss is worse than say Boeing missing by a couple percent.

 
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Man, GLD is starting look good again at these prices. I'm already in GDX though, and no reason I need to crash both by investing more. 

 
at over $1800 a share now, would it make sense for amzn to split?

10 to 1 split would have it at $180 a share or so. Seems much more manageable for the little guys to get in.

.... or do they just not care about the little guys?

What's the drawback to a stock split / why not split in this particular situation?

 
at over $1800 a share now, would it make sense for amzn to split?

10 to 1 split would have it at $180 a share or so. Seems much more manageable for the little guys to get in.

.... or do they just not care about the little guys?

What's the drawback to a stock split / why not split in this particular situation?
with many people investing through mutual funds and ETFs these days, splits are a lot less common than they used to be. Bezos doesn't seem too interested in doing it.

Dow might change that though:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/12/01/will-amazon-do-a-stock-split-in-2018.aspx

Indeed, there's really only one inducement that could probably get Amazon to consider a split: admission to the Dow Jones Industrials. The price-weighted average couldn't handle a $1,200 stock, but it could handle the $170 share price that would result from a 7-for-1 split. The Dow doesn't make decisions to invite new companies to the mix all that frequently, but Amazon's place atop the retail world would be a good complement to the big-box brick-and-mortar retailers among the Dow's ranks already.

Absent a Dow move, Amazon is most likely just to let its stock keep rising without ever doing a split. With a growing number of companies choosing to follow that general strategy, there's little pressure on Amazon to buck the trend and return to an era of stock splits that's largely retreated into history.

 
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So, for those of you who are still in CBLLF. What's your game plan? Bailing soon, or riding this out? Down 20% just in the last month... :X

 
So, for those of you who are still in CBLLF. What's your game plan? Bailing soon, or riding this out? Down 20% just in the last month... :X
Bailed today while I still had some real money in it. Also sold a couple other dogs and went with 100 shares of AAPL (to respond to the post above yours). I speculated and lost so I need a little cuddle time with a stock I won't have to sweat (as much). ETA: I love GLD but I'm already heavy into it. It's priced well right now if you want to get in, IMO.

 
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Bailed today while I still had some real money in it. Also sold a couple other dogs and went with 100 shares of AAPL (to respond to the post above yours). I speculated and lost so I need a little cuddle time with a stock I won't have to sweat (as much). ETA: I love GLD but I'm already heavy into it. It's priced well right now if you want to get in, IMO.
Yeah, I'm about to bail with another loser...crazy string of bad luck right now. I bought a little more than I should have (10k) as well in this particular turd. *sigh*

 
I'm just gonna bump every time I see your avatar. It's revolting and disrespectful and just dumb. I don't want to be on a board that has this going on.  

 
Bought AT&T today as a long term hold, doubling my position. Smart? Stupid?
As always, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and their outlook, time frame, and objectives. T looks "cheap" at these levels with a nice dividend. Unfortunately they have a lot of debt (like many companies) so there is interest rate risk given they will be refinancing that debt at higher rates in the future. Debt is not a huge issue for companies that are growing. I'm not sure what the catalyst for growth is for T though (if any). Technically (charts), if you are into that, the stock looks a bit like GE at $25 but the fundamentals for T are much better, imo. There is plenty of price support that "should" keep it from larger draw downs. The same WAS true for GE. However, it looks to me like T's Friday close was the lowest weekly close in 6+ years. The stock bounced from $31.xx in 2014, 2015, and May 2018...now it sits at $31.10 which may be a line in the sand given three prior reversals. I use GE's tecnicals as an example only because I know you were/are in that one...I don't believe T is in the same boat fundamentally.

Did you buy T for the dividend, because it looks cheap (value play), or for growth potential? If there is one thing I've learned over the years...cheap stocks tend to get cheaper than what I could imagine (GE) and expensive stocks tend to get more expensive than what I could imagine (CMG). Trying to out guess the the market by picking reversals (tops or bottom) has typically been a loss for me.

 
As always, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and their outlook, time frame, and objectives. T looks "cheap" at these levels with a nice dividend. Unfortunately they have a lot of debt (like many companies) so there is interest rate risk given they will be refinancing that debt at higher rates in the future. Debt is not a huge issue for companies that are growing. I'm not sure what the catalyst for growth is for T though (if any). Technically (charts), if you are into that, the stock looks a bit like GE at $25 but the fundamentals for T are much better, imo. There is plenty of price support that "should" keep it from larger draw downs. The same WAS true for GE. However, it looks to me like T's Friday close was the lowest weekly close in 6+ years. The stock bounced from $31.xx in 2014, 2015, and May 2018...now it sits at $31.10 which may be a line in the sand given three prior reversals. I use GE's tecnicals as an example only because I know you were/are in that one...I don't believe T is in the same boat fundamentally.

Did you buy T for the dividend, because it looks cheap (value play), or for growth potential? If there is one thing I've learned over the years...cheap stocks tend to get cheaper than what I could imagine (GE) and expensive stocks tend to get more expensive than what I could imagine (CMG). Trying to out guess the the market by picking reversals (tops or bottom) has typically been a loss for me.
I’m pretty heavy in a couple utilities (mostly D, some FE) and at FE finally getting a bounce I diversified that holding some with the T. All are long term holds that I don’t plan to need anytime soon and liked the 6% to park money there. 

Always like getting your perspective that is for the input. 

On the GE I sold half earlier in the nosedive and now am regretting still holding half. Don’t need the money anytime soon so just sitting on it may take the loss before year end. 

 
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I’m pretty heavy in a couple utilities (mostly D, some FE) and at FE finally getting a bounce I diversified that holding some with the T. All are long term holds that I don’t plan to need anytime soon and liked the 6% to park money there. 

Always like getting your perspective that is for the input. 
Nice job getting out of FE at/near highs. Will be interesting to compare to T in 12 months.

You seem like a long-term 'value' investor. Not sure how much time you put into your investments but I highly suggest that you sign up for the free 'Large Cap 1000 Value screener' HERE. Current results have been copied HERE. Just (much) smarter guys than me offering 30 value stocks with better fundamentals than I can find. I like the ease of use and format.

 
As I know this thread loves all things AMZN, they report on Wednesday.  If the earnings and guidance are simply solid, I think AMZN wins the race to trillion market cap.

I'm not a holder, but as Google is reporting today ......things may be in place for a rocket ship.

 

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