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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
This Chart shows that SKYY and This chart shows that XLK has outperformed VUG by a wide margin. VUG and MGK had similar three-year returns it seems. SKYY has 31 and XLK has 76 holdings. They will likely dramatically under perform VUG (300+ holdings) and MGK (120+ holdings) in a tech bear....adjust size accordingly. I'm considering a 'poor-man's covered call' on XLK with a summer pullback.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
FML, market couldn't wait 2 days on this
Those puts were like a 25-1 return as of now, $170 to $149 in 2 sessions.
Sand
Footballguy
Might be a good idea to stay out of this one until the blow off top resolves itself a bit.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Has to be much better odds AAPL disappoints tomorrow afternoon right? Only thing that could save it would be a big one time dividend.
What say you?
What say you?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Considering that FB and TWTR (the big reason for the current backlash) purvey pure information and AAPL is a hardware company (mostly, anyway) I see them as two different beasts.
Honestly no inkling of what to expect here. I just keep hodling my shares on this one. Once it hits 1T I can then celebrate owning my .000000000000124% ownership in the company.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The good news is that your percentage ownership increases by about .000000000000001% every quarter!
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I'm holding too but the stock has had a GREAT run and unless I'm missing something, nothing real exciting coming up.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I guess the good news is there were all kinds of doom and gloom stories on Marketwatch yesterday.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
FB rebounding now
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Best case scenario I think AAPL goes up a max of $2. Worst case down $7-10.
Would say 65-35 in favor of worst case.
Would say 65-35 in favor of worst case.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Did you see Mr Wonderful on CNBC today? He bought AAPL today being afraid of missing earnings run up. GL to you guys holding!
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I did. Just tried to put a short in for 100 sharess for the hell of it but I can't since I own the stock. Makes sense. Lol
Would cover the short tonight one way or another.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
LOL, never thought about that. You could have sold a put or call, but not after hours.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Cheesecake Factory, wait
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Options prices tend to get inflated right before earnings, so you can get a higher premium for selling than you would at another time because risk is inflated. If you think it is going to fall, you could sell a 200 call, which would require you to sell 100 shares at $200. So you'd still have upside, but if you're right about it falling, you'd get to keep the premium and the shares because it wouldn't hit $200. And if you wanted to own more, you could sell a 180 put which would require you to buy @ 180 if it hit there, but you'd be subsidized by the amount of the premium. If you were paid $5, you'd effectively buy it at $175. If it doesn't hit 180, you just keep the $5 premium
ETA- These are all hypothetical numbers. I didn't check how much premium you'd get for those trades, so don't know how worthwhile theses specific trades would be.
ETA- These are all hypothetical numbers. I didn't check how much premium you'd get for those trades, so don't know how worthwhile theses specific trades would be.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Numbers look good....
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
AAPL!
The General
Footballguy
Apple, My man.
The General
Footballguy
"That's how you handle your ####, Zuckerberg"
-Apple
-Apple
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
$200 tomorrow?
FANG all getting an after hours boost as well.
Almost silly. FB and Netflix had bad quarters and the other three (including Apple) had great quarters but they seem in lock step.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
$200!
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Wait..
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
$200!
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Wait...
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
$200!!
Sand
Footballguy
kevzilla
Footballguy
@St. Louis Bob Remember when I practically begged you to short CZR? Turns out nickel-and-diming your customers into oblivion is counterproductive. 
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I'm unsmart.kevzilla said:@St. Louis Bob Remember when I practically begged you to short CZR? Turns out nickel-and-diming your customers into oblivion is counterproductive.
Bossman
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Another macro take on whether we are late cycle in the markets. This article has a great graph showing boom cycles and where we are not from a stock gain point of view, but a GDP view. It shows we're mid-cycle (maybe-ish).
Not that it's any kind of smoking gun, but it certainly is a different take that's interesting and valuable.
Not that it's any kind of smoking gun, but it certainly is a different take that's interesting and valuable.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Does anyone own, or have an opinion on NXPI? I sold it a year ago when the Qualcomm merger was dragging and it had reached the original 110 bid. It was one of the better performing semis pre-bid and then just started trading on the acquisition . Many people thought it would have gone higher than 110 on its own, but was capped by the bid. But now, with the acquisition off the table, it is back to mid-90's. I'm trying to figure out if their competitive position has changed (or some other issue) or if it is just because it is assumed it won't be a merger target again after Qualcomm couldn't get Chinese approval.
I hope people aren’t still in the TVIX. 33 and change now and I remember people being deep in at 60ish. I really hope @St. Louis Bob got out. IIRC, he’d be down more than $20k now if he’s still in it.
That said, WTF is with it's chart? If you look back at 5 years or more the prices go up to hundreds of thousands and hundreds of millions of dollars per share.
That said, WTF is with it's chart? If you look back at 5 years or more the prices go up to hundreds of thousands and hundreds of millions of dollars per share.
Bossman
Footballguy
I have a small amount of tvix in play.stbugs said:
Sold all my shares at 38.10 ... bought them back at 36.50 last week had an order to sell all at 39.40 a day or so later.
I watched it hover at 39.39 for about 3 mins ... then fall like a stone.
So now I hold a small bag at $36.50. Trading today at $31.50. I don't expect it will ever make it back to the 36's.
I'll hold until I find a good dumping point. Maybe in the 34's.
Seems like a no brainer to just short this stuff. Even if it goes up some ... it always goes down further and further.
Yeah, it’s sort of a weird play. It isn’t just an opposite of the market. We are kind of where we were at the peak at the end of January (the 26th) for the S&P, but TVIX was at 54 that same day.
The chart itself is wild when you look at the past prices. Seems like this came to a front when that one mystery trader made a bundle earlier this year on volatility bets. Now, seems like people chasing that are getting their ### kicked, especially in TVIX. I really hope Bob got out because he made a big bet and would be down half in a very short amount of time.
My understanding is that, short of a bear market or significant correction, the TVIX generally goes down. I also believe there is a type of 'vig' in it which causes it to depreciate 1 or 2% per year. Once it drops to a low enough level, it does a reverse split. If you imagine a 10-1 reverse split happening let's say six times, that would explain the millions of dollars per share it would have been worth back in the olden days.stbugs said:
I do have just a little bit of TVIX myself, thinking that 1) the bear is around the corner and 2) the Trump hammer is going to fall and I doubt the markets will like having their sugar daddy removed from office. Of course, Pence may just hold steady with his pro-business / pro-rich folks policies, but the teat's got to drop up eventually, right? That's what those of us holding the TVIX tell ourselves.
My understanding is that shorting the VIX is a good theoretical play but there are a couple issues. One is that everyone wants to do it so the premiums are meager. Two is that, should a correction hit, the losses would be devastating.
