fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Got another open on NVDA at $217, upped the AMZN to $1637
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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I’d raise my bids a little, but with tomorrow being Friday, I don’t want to start a new position over the weekend, too much risk.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The volume just exploded on the Nasdaq futures too.
65k contracts in 15 minutes.
65k contracts in 15 minutes.
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culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I’m about to start nibbling very small right now.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Watching the Naz futures, if they close 3:30 above 6975, I think you’ll want to buy into the end of the day.
ETA: small
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Nasdaq chart is going to fill in and rise 80 points to close the day.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Big Red X - and this my friends is why I will never day trade. Watching the market closely all afternoon trying to get a feel of the general direction.
Gotta watch the banks lending activity in the morning for a little more general direction and a feel for the strength of the economy.
Rattle and Hum
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I’m not playing that game, I’m waiting to see if I can start initiating positions at a small scale and build on them. Market was like a yoyo today, you had to know that was coming.
Two big down days in a row, look at the charts from other sell offs this year, AMZN 16%, pretty close for me.
ETA: Dow at 25052, feel like it might dip a touch below 25, but think you’ll get a little defense of that number too.
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I google his name and go to the 'news' link in google: https://www.google.com/search?q=avi+gilburt&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj2_N6hnf_dAhUo11kKHSNzDh4Q_AUIDigB&biw=1499&bih=796Sand said:
then check his latest writings. they are on all different sites each time. I also read his market updates but unless you subscribe, its' at least 3 days behind. Even 3 days on this latest swing was a winning move for me so far. If I had the $ and was managing about a million, I would subscribe. I'm not there yet.
His market updates: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/marketupdate/
Latest article on seeking alpha this time: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211008-sentiment-speaks-bear-market-begun
that is a great article explaining the BS of 'events' moving he markets. they don't. I never believed they do to begin with. Take Greece for instance. talk about BS. They are a nobody and it caused a big sellof once. the 2nd time Greece was mentioned it was 'oh,
who cares'.marketwatch link for his articles. https://www.marketwatch.com/topics/journalists/avi-gilburt
Not much of a twitter user but here it is: https://twitter.com/AviGilburt?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
edit: he's not going to tell you which way the market is going but he gives scenarios and levels that if broken then look out and if topped away we go.
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Nothing wrong with the economy. I think the easiest way to know when to buy is when the ^vix hits 40...if it does. If it hits 40, I'm back in 100%. It may peak in the 30's or may have already peaked.
VIX max chart Seems that 40ish is the max level other than the housing debacle.
VIX max chart Seems that 40ish is the max level other than the housing debacle.
culdeus
Footballguy
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Aye carumba. Is the bleeding over, or close to done? Seriously considering dumping my whole 401k consisting of ivv, vti, and splg and buying amazon in the 1700’s. What could possibly go wrong?
GoBirds
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Futures point to a big open, however, need to hear what Jamie Dimon says on the earnings call for real decisive movement.
Worth noting, he’s been bullish on the economy for a while now, I don’t see why that changes. Should give the overnight futures rally some more room if he and other big bank CEOs sound optimistic. I can’t listen to the call, the action in futures before the bell should let you know though.
Worth noting, he’s been bullish on the economy for a while now, I don’t see why that changes. Should give the overnight futures rally some more room if he and other big bank CEOs sound optimistic. I can’t listen to the call, the action in futures before the bell should let you know though.
Bossman
Footballguy
Sonofabiznatch!Bossman said:
Missed a nice $1000 gain ... by less than a dollar.
This stock trading crap is so GD frustrating.
Hey, if I had just waited a few minutes, I would have jumped in yesterday instead of right before the bell on Wednesday. Oh well. I’m going to wait till the bounce settles before I grab anymore. Stock trading is tough with a real job. I have no time to keep checking and I’m not good enough to set limits yet.
culdeus
Footballguy
NREC34
Footballguy
Sure have, but I want to invest in some stocks as well. If it weren’t for SQ’s CFO leaving in December to take a CEO position announcement on a huge down day, I’d already be up nicely. This is my a little more aggressive portfolio. It isn’t that I haven’t been watching these stocks for a while, I was just commiserating on the difficulty of calling a true bottom.
We are close because Schiff came out from under his rock last night after market, proclaiming victory for the 20th time, and gave the futures a big lift.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/stock-bubble-bigger-than-2008-crash-peter-schiff
Now we need Dr. Doom to open his cakehole and we will rally. S&P to 3k by end of year.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/stock-bubble-bigger-than-2008-crash-peter-schiff
Now we need Dr. Doom to open his cakehole and we will rally. S&P to 3k by end of year.
Bossman
Footballguy
Same here. Real job gets in the way.stbugs said:
Which is why I set a limit price and go back to work.
Seems like whenever I use to buy or sell at "market", it was always a worse case scenario for that particular day (ie buy at the highest, sell at the lowest price of the day)
Burned me good yesterday though. Should have just paid the low 17's that it was hovering at.
With amzn, the swings are so extreme, if you miss an opportunity to buy or sell, it'll cost you hundreds overnight.
Now I can't bear to buy it at 1775 today, even though that's still a good deal, ... when I could have had it at 1700 all day yesterday.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Market orders are never a good idea. You could get hosed even in very liquid stocks. Remember the flash crash a few years ago?
Look at this chart for boring Procter and Gamble. Look above Q3 2010 and you'll see a drop and subsequent rebound from 65 to 40 and back. It only lasted about 15 minutes, but that was enough time for your shares to have been sold in the 40s.It's an extreme example, and it is possible those orders were cancelled, but still never a good idea IMO to agree to buy or sell at any price. Stuff happens.
P&G Chart
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Just subscribed for the 15 day trial. S&P resistance level was support and is the 200 day MA at 2767 that we hit today. He says we have to sustain a breakout above this next week. If we don't the next stop is around 2600. I moved back in 50% today. Was so close to doing it yesterday at close. Good chance I bail out again on Monday.
Carter Worth on CNBC, about 15 minutes ago said the same thing. He's pretty convinced we continue to drop to 2600, the Feb low.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Somewhat off topic, but I'm reading about China "dumping (or selling) US Treasuries" in the near future in retaliation for the Trump tariffs. I must admit that I don't know what the implications of this would be, why it would be so bad, and most relevant to FBGs, I have no idea how to profit if we know this is coming down the pike. Thanks for any education you can provide.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Maybe I'm off the mark but I'd be more concerned with the future loans than dumping current loans.
If China is not taking those loans, that's around 5% of the current market no longer making those loans. Probably not as huge am issue as it sounds at first, but rates (the price you pay) still rise if there are fewer suppliers. *Although perhaps China dumping their loans also saturates the market?
That's been happening lately, the t bills have increased yield since January, to the point where many of our mortgages are lower than the 10 year t bill. That seems significant to me, as people are less inclined to pay off their old mortgages and even less likely to refinance. Mortgage prices rising tend to lower home sale prices, although to what degree I don't know.
Plus as we saw this week, rising bonds can have a negative effect on stock prices.
I won't do it but it's getting really tempting to drop my portfolio from 80% stock, 10 REIT, 10 bond, to significantly less stock. Pretty sure many people feel the same.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/14/saudi-stocks-plunge-on-khashoggi-fallout-biggest-drop--since-2014.html
i know our market will ignore this for a little while, but I’m pretty sure they did this, the UN will place sanctions, and the Saudis are a country that has the tools to actually deliver severe economic pain to the world.
i know our market will ignore this for a little while, but I’m pretty sure they did this, the UN will place sanctions, and the Saudis are a country that has the tools to actually deliver severe economic pain to the world.
culdeus
Footballguy
Saudis don't have ####. They took their best shot to stop oil sand and usa based exploration and failed. Their wells are depleting and their power hold is depleting faster.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
We can only hope. We've been in bed with those devils for far too long. It's the lesser of two evils, as not having them in power would spur even more unrest elsewhere, but ####, these people are corrupt on all levels.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Wat?
They have the tools to bring the world into a recession as quickly as almost anyone.
All they have to do is withhold 2mm barrels of oil a day, the price would go parabolic, and the world would have some severe problems.
culdeus
Footballguy
Nah, the world is much more prepared for this now. The US is a net exporter now. The world is at a tipping point on crude use anyways.
That, and I think everyone knows Saudi production reserves are questionable at best now. This is why the Yemen thing is so important to them.
sbonomo
Footballguy
Can you unpack this a bit - my understanding was that they were a huge cog in the cartel (which may be wrong). If they were to take their ball and go home who has the capacity to make up for it?
culdeus
Footballguy
First off, we need to be prepared for a world where Saudi depletes whether they want to or not. They've been pumping saltwater in for a decade to keep production where it is. Some of the wikileaks stuff was pretty eye opening in that regard.
Proven reserves the world over are starting to fall (Well, if you discount Venezuela's nonsense). Plays outside OPEC are going to be the norm, and will carry the water.
US production is strong, and there is evidence we could bring more online. Places out of OPEC's reach like Vietnam may be in play. Things like that. Worldwide demand may have peaked, which is good.
The main worry is if Saudi depletes can they keep a lid on their society or not. You can't live on a 10 to 0 situation.
jonessed
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
This is less likely than Russia lobbing nukes at NYC. They pull some stunt like that and the royal family ends up with heads on pikes in a hurry.
I would recommend the 15 day trial. Fascinating stuff reading their scrolling message board. If I was a big trader, I would pay the $100 a month to be a member. Considering it anyway.
Part of one message from Avi today: resistance I believe is 2790.
So, still waiting on the market to tip its hand. Below resistance, I am still looking for a direct drop ideally to 2600 region, but we need to break down below 2680SPX support to get us there. Over resistance, and we will have two scenarios to deal with . . blue and green.
The ONLY way I will even consider the blue structure is if we pullback correctively and hold the blue (b) at the resistance region, and develop a micro 5 wave rally off it for wave i of the (c) wave of the a-wave of the (v) of (5) in the ED. That is a lot to ask and a low probability based upon where we stand today.
So, again, as long as we remain below resistance on the ES chart, the next support lower in the SPX is the 2680/90 region, followed by 2600SPX.
Sand
Footballguy
I may do that. For what I do I don't see that kind of coin being worth it. If I just could expand my cash pile by or an order of magnitude or two...
