NeverEnough
Footballguy
Just sold most of my shares in a couple Schwab ETFs & bought a whole 3 more shares of Amazon. #baller
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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
JFC, Amazon below 1500. It’s down almost 30% since the top. I don’t want to commit any more but damn if I’m not kicking myself for either getting out after being up a little last week or just waiting more. When it was down 20% I wasn’t down too bad since I bought in down 17%. Down 30% is crazy. Their PE ratio for 2018 is getting close to Walmart’s.
Down 30% for beating earnings by 80% (and even whisper numbers) and missing revenu by 0.9% amazes me. The market is a fickle ##### and she has turned hard. At least I know that my wife and I max our 401ks too so glad new money going in cheaper.
Down 30% for beating earnings by 80% (and even whisper numbers) and missing revenu by 0.9% amazes me. The market is a fickle ##### and she has turned hard. At least I know that my wife and I max our 401ks too so glad new money going in cheaper.
Right there with you. Funny how earlier this year I was unbelievably stoked by 1500 a share. I’m still way up total but sucks to know I could have waited 12 days and 2 days and felt awesome.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Jayrok
Footballguy
Thanks for this. I saw a demo on that platform and it looks nice and straight forward.
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I know. See my post above. 1500 was kick ### earlier this year. Overall, I’m still way up, but my recent purchases, not so much. I’m just mad that I jumped in too quick. If I waited 1 day both times in past two weeks, I’d be down just a couple percent.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I liked the layout of the predecessor, StreetSmart Pro, better (less wasted space), but this one was designed to be more user-friendly. Also, this can be operated from your desktop or Cloud. Pro was only available from your PC. It is not "endorsed", but you can even view Edge on an ipad. I did a layout for it that only uses half the space so it fits on the ipad. Haven't really used it, but good to have a back up option.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I believe this is where siffoin would chide you for trying to catch a falling knife rather than waiting for the downward momentum to end and for it to establish a pattern of positive momentum that you could feel comfortable it will be able to build upon.
Schiff opened his cakehole again last night. Everytime he does, the markets rally. it's like they just want to slap him around.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-collapse-fed-raising-223233624.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-collapse-fed-raising-223233624.html
No one can time the market, especially with all the recent volatility/uncertainty. If you love the company long term, pick spots that you're comfortable owning it and put in your orders. If you're correct in the long term prognosis, the timing won't make much difference at all.
I'm not trying to rain on your parade, just giving an alternate perspective- I love the company as well, but that report was not good, and when you've had the run it has had there is a LOT of room for it to fall when it disappoints.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'm kicking myself because I was very close to shorting Amazon last week. Would have sold at 1500-something
cosjobs
Footballguy
This week I'd recommend putting everything in a Hellman's mayonnaise jar and burying it in the back yard.
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cosjobs
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
I like to take out of town non q-snobs there. Its a raucous, fun bbq place and the food ain't bad. I much prefer lounging at a table with a cooler full of BYOB * to standing in line in a parking lot for a couple of hours. If you want me to choose a plate, I doubt Salt Lick would not be one of the top 10 plates I'd take. If you are going to make me dedicate a few hours to the experience, I'll take Salt Lick.
Thoughts on AMRN heading into earnings on Thursday? If you are unfamiliar with it, PPS spiked in the past month from $3 to $12 and now on to $20 after one of their drugs showed great promise to combat heart disease. But the company is only now going to announce earnings (which will not show an effect from this new, potential use, I think) but more importantly the guidance which could shatter some expectations, either on the positive or on the negative side. Makes me want to buy a "strangle" to play both sides because I feel like it could move mightily after this report but I don't know in which direction.
Jayrok
Footballguy
Pickle jar under the mattress may have to do. I have nosy neighbors who like to forage about.
Jayrok
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
Pretty disappointed that I missed the amzn bottom yesterday. Saw 14's and my heart was racing.
So dang busy at work yesterday that I told my self "I'll get it later" ... then it was mid 15's by the time I got back to it.
There is no doubt in my mind this is back to 1800 in a short amount of time. (full disclosure: I am a dumbaz and I have done no research to back this up).
Already touching 16's today. She's already taking off. <_< .
So dang busy at work yesterday that I told my self "I'll get it later" ... then it was mid 15's by the time I got back to it.
There is no doubt in my mind this is back to 1800 in a short amount of time. (full disclosure: I am a dumbaz and I have done no research to back this up).
Already touching 16's today. She's already taking off. <_< .
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Second floor. Hardware, children's wear, lady's lingerie...
Certainly hope you are right. I was a buyer from 1730 down to 1510, with a cost basis of 1600 now. I’ll get out at 1800 with a smile (and 4K) and look to buy again in the next round of panic selling. This feels like a traders market, not an investors.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Do we have any good fractional share shtick? I've never really given them a second thought, but as I sit here looking at them, I'm pretty sure they're actively mocking me. Can you donate .073 shares? From a 401k? Do I get $.01 every time there's a dividend on these? I don't think I've ever checked.
kevzilla
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Stabucks!! I swear my son Dylan is freaking blessed. Bought at the bottom with this and AAPL.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Beats top and bottom line.
Dropping because guiding lower 1Q19 ETA: iPhone shipments missed too.
AAPL...WAIT!!!
Dropping because guiding lower 1Q19 ETA: iPhone shipments missed too.
AAPL...WAIT!!!
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Revisiting. I sat and watched when it was in the 1400s. Committed enough, but based on pre-market this morning, I'm just about even on my AMZN (about 1% down on combo of 2 purchases) and SQ (about 1% up) purchases. I wish I hadn't put as much in (or just waited a few days
) because I would have committed more in the 14s. You just get spooked while DCAing if things go real bad and it was looking real bad. I couldn't put in the rest of my available cash.At this point, I am just glad I'm about even because it feels like we may have already bottomed out. If it gets to 1800, sweet, I may jump out, not sure. SQ, I think can run some more and has higher return potential, so I stick with that.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Any folks buying Amazon at close to $1,700 or just waiting for another dip?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Amazingly, we might have a trade deal lining up with China. You can look at it two ways:
1) The POTUS is being genuine. We have managed to narrow the very wide gaps out of nowhere, with either the Chinese looking to concede a lot of stuff OR the POTUS not looking for as much (even though the Chinese markets are getting slaughtered).
or
2) The POTUS got wind of the report in advance, knew how hot it would be coming in, and jawboned the market to try and put a floor underneath it before the midterms.
I went with 2 and sold some NQ futures overnight as it rallied (I just covered all but 1 which I left to see if it can run). With an NFP that hot, unless we get a real deal in place with China, the floor below just moved down. Even with a deal in place, I'd be selling on strength.
Just my .02 - rates are going up, my stance hasn't changed in months on this, I was a little early, but that data cannot be refuted... And just remember, most inflationary metrics are lagging indicators. I'm selling gains on strength with companies that have an uncomfortable debt load, that debt is going to get much more expensive. Market is down 1% and the 10 year treasury is up 6 points - Unless a lot changes quickly, the market is giving you the wink wink there won't be many places to hide.
1) The POTUS is being genuine. We have managed to narrow the very wide gaps out of nowhere, with either the Chinese looking to concede a lot of stuff OR the POTUS not looking for as much (even though the Chinese markets are getting slaughtered).
or
2) The POTUS got wind of the report in advance, knew how hot it would be coming in, and jawboned the market to try and put a floor underneath it before the midterms.
I went with 2 and sold some NQ futures overnight as it rallied (I just covered all but 1 which I left to see if it can run). With an NFP that hot, unless we get a real deal in place with China, the floor below just moved down. Even with a deal in place, I'd be selling on strength.
Just my .02 - rates are going up, my stance hasn't changed in months on this, I was a little early, but that data cannot be refuted... And just remember, most inflationary metrics are lagging indicators. I'm selling gains on strength with companies that have an uncomfortable debt load, that debt is going to get much more expensive. Market is down 1% and the 10 year treasury is up 6 points - Unless a lot changes quickly, the market is giving you the wink wink there won't be many places to hide.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
ACRX just got approval for their pain med. Still have yet to see a PR from the company, but the FDA released a statement about it due to the opiod crisis. Never seen anything like this. First the whole fake rejection, then the weird adcom where everybody sounded so negative but then voted in favor 10-3, then a US senator released his own press release saying how this drug shouldnt be approved, then some advocacy groups started releasing stuff, and then bam halted and approved.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Just bought 25 at $1660.00NeverEnough said:
Bossman
Footballguy
I loaded up good and was willing to buy more. This economy is still super strong and it's just a matter of time before amzn bounces back.stbugs said:Revisiting. I sat and watched when it was in the 1400s. Committed enough, but based on pre-market this morning, I'm just about even on my AMZN (about 1% down on combo of 2 purchases) and SQ (about 1% up) purchases. I wish I hadn't put as much in (or just waited a few days
At this point, I am just glad I'm about even because it feels like we may have already bottomed out. If it gets to 1800, sweet, I may jump out, not sure. SQ, I think can run some more and has higher return potential, so I stick with that.
I don't care that the earnings report was a little off ... these guys aren't going anywhere for a long long while.
I'd sell some if it has a crazy run up and I thought it was about to come back down. Slow and steady uphill climb and I'm hanging on for the ride.
1700 is about where my cost basis is for the shares that I bought these last 2 weeks.NeverEnough said:
1700 is Still not a bad entry point imo ... but it pains me to buy more right now knowing that I could have had it at 1500 just a few days ago.
As someone in here said earlier, if your going to be holding long term then entry point doesn't make a big difference. I agree.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Even if not going long, a little profit is better than 0. I bought some at $1500ish & a whole 3 more today. I'm planning on selling it all at $1,800. I'll jump back in later if it dips again.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Amazon is going the wrong way today :(
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
CMG feels like it is setting up for an excellent short. I don't even know where to begin.
Valuation? Okay, 3x as rich as MCD (who I own and love as a long term hold, mentioned this one a year ago in here).
Growth? Same store sales grew 4.4% YoY (considering they implemented higher prices in Q4 last year, I'd view this as a huge disappointment). I would think having a valuation (P/E) significantly more than the industry leader should mean growth just a touch over 4.4%.
More growth? How about 1.1% fewer transactions per store... So the only thing they had going in the last year was a higher bill among slightly less consumers? Those comps will get harder going into this quarter when the price increases will be over half baked in and even harder into Q1 earnings.
I personally loved Chipotle about a decade ago, from my personal experiences the quality of the meal has greatly declined. I also can't remember the last time I walked by any Chipotle and saw the standard line I used to see as recent as 3-4 years ago. Half the Chipotles I walk by are empty.
Either their growth is going to have to explode, or there will be a day of reckoning, IMO. I lean towards the latter, now debating how to play it.
CMG is like my well, and I have to keep tapping it when the opportunity arises.
Valuation? Okay, 3x as rich as MCD (who I own and love as a long term hold, mentioned this one a year ago in here).
Growth? Same store sales grew 4.4% YoY (considering they implemented higher prices in Q4 last year, I'd view this as a huge disappointment). I would think having a valuation (P/E) significantly more than the industry leader should mean growth just a touch over 4.4%.
More growth? How about 1.1% fewer transactions per store... So the only thing they had going in the last year was a higher bill among slightly less consumers? Those comps will get harder going into this quarter when the price increases will be over half baked in and even harder into Q1 earnings.
I personally loved Chipotle about a decade ago, from my personal experiences the quality of the meal has greatly declined. I also can't remember the last time I walked by any Chipotle and saw the standard line I used to see as recent as 3-4 years ago. Half the Chipotles I walk by are empty.
Either their growth is going to have to explode, or there will be a day of reckoning, IMO. I lean towards the latter, now debating how to play it.
CMG is like my well, and I have to keep tapping it when the opportunity arises.
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NotSmart
Footballguy
I haven't noticed any quality declines, but YMMV.fantasycurse42 said:
I should have jumped back in when they hired a new CEO, I knew that would be a rallying point.
The one thing that continually keeps me from buying CMG is the ever present threat of more norovirus outbreaks.
They keep happening, albeit less frequently, and I think it likely it will happen again.
I have a slight suspicion that there might even be some sabotage involved in some of those cases.
Either way, the threat of that happening again, perhaps with significant negative PR, is a kick in the nuts I see as avoidable and somewhat foreseeable.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Maybe my tastes have changed. I have a Chipotle a few blocks from my house, my kids used to love it and I can split a bowl between the two of them for a quick/easy meal - lately they hardly eat it even after asking for it. There is usually 1/4-1/2 a bowl left when they're done, so I nibble and I swear it has gotten much much worse. I think it is gross and regardless of how cheap/easy it is for the kids, I think I'm done buying it for them.
Regardless of food, as 10 people will prob have 10 different opinions, on a pure stock price, what is attractive about this stock? You saw the numbers I posted? They're trading at a significant premium to other fast food chains, their foot traffic is flat (the comps aren't that crazy since they got walloped 2 years ago), and their same store sales are modestly higher.
How does anyone justify the price up here? You said the outbreaks keep you from being a buyer, so I'm curious; pretend that threat was gone, what would make you want to invest in Chipotle at these prices?
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Thoughts on midterms tomorrow? Not talking political views, but for the markets.
Everyone says a Republican sweep would be good for the markets, I assume these are the same talking heads that said Trump would cause an instant correction.
I'm playing the contrarian, a Republican sweep leads to yields spiking and is bad for the markets - gridlock would be better.
Everyone says a Republican sweep would be good for the markets, I assume these are the same talking heads that said Trump would cause an instant correction.
I'm playing the contrarian, a Republican sweep leads to yields spiking and is bad for the markets - gridlock would be better.
You sold me. Just wrote a vertical call spread on CMG, betting that it will not rise above $500. I'm with you re: the P/E and the Chipotle fatigue. Fingers crossed on that norovirus outbreak soon!
Maybe it is wishful thinking but I am hoping the blue wave crashes all over our Orange leader and his party tomorrow. In reality, the Dems will take the house but the Republicans will keep the Senate. I've been saying all along that when Mueller reports or when the midterms ding Trump, the markets will buckle as their sugar daddy will be closer to the exit door. I expect the markets to behave poorly on Wednesday (another reason to short CMG).
I've moved a lot of retirement money into gold, real estate, a staples ETF, and baked beans for my bunker. I'm ready for the 1-2 punch of the elections going against Trump followed closely by Mueller poking his head out of his hole.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I think we could get a relief rally after the midterms, I'm waiting a week or so. I'm eyeing March $450 puts for around $25 (if it rallies and I can get them for $15, I'd be thrilled). This stock could fall by 50% and I still wouldn't look at it as a value play.
