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Think the Fed will give us a rate hike and then walk back any hawkish talk tomorrow. 

While the behavior of this market is confusing, I feel it should give us a sellable rally.
This seems to be priced in, along with only 1 hike next year. Not sure what the Fed can say/do to help at this point.

 
This seems to be priced in, along with only 1 hike next year. Not sure what the Fed can say/do to help at this point.
I could be wrong here. 

I didn't post it in this thread, but I thought the mediocre jobs report from early December would give us a bounce to sell, which it did not. 

S&P is sitting at a critical level, next few days will be very telling. If the S&P starts moving south of 2,500, I'd say run for the hills. We just made a new low again today (2,528), but they're stepping in as I type this to buy it. 

Also think Trump is getting boxed into a corner on trade, Xi is going to pounce, and we'll sign some ####ty deal that isn't much different than what we were doing before Trump. Could also provide a bounce. 

ETA: I think the mentality being "sell the rallies" is really making it impossible to get a good enough bounce to sell.

 
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I could be wrong here. 

I didn't post it in this thread, but I thought the mediocre jobs report from early December would give us a bounce to sell, which it did not. 

S&P is sitting at a critical level, next few days will be very telling. If the S&P starts moving south of 2,500, I'd say run for the hills. We just made a new low again today (2,528), but they're stepping in as I type this to buy it. 

Also think Trump is getting boxed into a corner on trade, Xi is going to pounce, and we'll sign some ####ty deal that isn't much different than what we were doing before Trump. Could also provide a bounce. 

ETA: I think the mentality being "sell the rallies" is really making it impossible to get a good enough bounce to sell.
If you had a magic wand, what would you have the Fed do/say tomorrow to give us the most bullish scenario possible? I'm struggling to see what it could even be.

Yeah, the trend is clearly down, we've been making lower highs and lower lows for quite a while now and lately we can't even hold onto gains for the day never mind longer.

 
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If you had a magic wand, what would you have the Fed do/say tomorrow to give us the most bullish scenario possible? I'm struggling to see what it could even be.

Yeah, the trend is clearly down, we've been making lower highs and lower lows for quite a while now and lately we can't even hold onto gains for the day never mind longer.
Not that I’m any expert but seems like whatever they say is going to be bearish. No one is going to like a hike and if they don’t hike everyone will think they’re caving to Trump. No one wants that either. I think it partially explains yesterday’s bloodbath.

 
If you had a magic wand, what would you have the Fed do/say tomorrow to give us the most bullish scenario possible? I'm struggling to see what it could even be.

Yeah, the trend is clearly down, we've been making lower highs and lower lows for quite a while now and lately we can't even hold onto gains for the day never mind longer.
If I had a magic wand, I'd have the Fed hike us right into a recession. 

Punish every irresponsible moron (corporation & individual) that has taken on too much debt and can't pay it back, even at these low rates. Suffer the consequences, get all the bad debt off the books, deal with a painful recession, and start fresh in a few years. 

To answer your question specifically, to save the market, a quote like this would be good:

I believe with this hike we are closing in on neutral. We have adjusted our forecast to be more data dependent going into 2019 with nothing set in stone and rates being close to neutral. While tax cuts provided a a healthy boost to the economy in 2018, the slowing we see in 2019 is very moderate, and the economy still looks strong. With rates being close to neutral, we feel economic conditions still remain very favorable for businesses into next year. 
Something along those lines, IDK. I mean, going back 6 weeks in this thread, my mantra has been to sell the rallies, so what is happening now is no surprise to me, but if they were going to throw a hail mary, it would be something like above. 

And I keep reading from everyone they shouldn't hike tomorrow. To be clear, the difference of 2.25 & 2.5% should be inconsequential after a decade long expansion. Those aren't high rates regardless, they're still super low either way. If those 25 pips make a difference, can we admit the last decade has been a mirage and crash as we deserve to? If the difference of 2.25 & 2.5% make any difference at all, we shouldn't be near an ATH. 

 
Not that I’m any expert but seems like whatever they say is going to be bearish. No one is going to like a hike and if they don’t hike everyone will think they’re caving to Trump. No one wants that either. I think it partially explains yesterday’s bloodbath.
I think the absolute best case scenario is they hike but take a very neutral tone, but I think that's pretty much priced in so don't see why we'd get much of a positive reaction. Pretty much anything else will be bearish IMO.

Basically we either have a strong economy which means they continue to raise rates, or a weak economy and they stop raising them. Neither is good for the market.

 
If I had a magic wand, I'd have the Fed hike us right into a recession. 

Punish every irresponsible moron (corporation & individual) that has taken on too much debt and can't pay it back, even at these low rates. Suffer the consequences, get all the bad debt off the books, deal with a painful recession, and start fresh in a few years. 

To answer your question specifically, to save the market, a quote like this would be good:

Something along those lines, IDK. I mean, going back 6 weeks in this thread, my mantra has been to sell the rallies, so what is happening now is no surprise to me, but if they were going to throw a hail mary, it would be something like above. 

And I keep reading from everyone they shouldn't hike tomorrow. To be clear, the difference of 2.25 & 2.5% should be inconsequential after a decade long expansion. Those aren't high rates regardless, they're still super low either way. If those 25 pips make a difference, can we admit the last decade has been a mirage and crash as we deserve to? If the difference of 2.25 & 2.5% make any difference at all, we shouldn't be near an ATH. 
I agree that this kind of statement would be best case scenario for bulls, but don't think it would "save" the market, it just wouldn't crush it more IMO. That doesn't mean we can't/won't have a short term pop if it happens, but can't see any realistic scenario out of the Fed that would be bullish long term.

 
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Market can't even wait for the announcement, buying now knowing what will be said later. 

Should be a good rally to sell, prob give it 7-10 sessions before hitting the exit. 

 
Throwing darts on some simple premises. 

They defended the lows on back to back days Mon/Tues. They want to buy, to them this will be the green light. Plus sellers might be dealing with some temporary exhaustion.

Can't imagine a lot of smart money establishing long term positions though. 

Devil will be in the details (Powell press conference).

 
They lowered their long term figure (neutral) closer to 2.85%, was closer to 3.05% before. 

They shifted expected hikes next year from 3 to 2 (don't know if that is dovish enough, tbh).

 
They lowered their long term figure (neutral) closer to 2.85%, was closer to 3.05% before. 

They shifted expected hikes next year from 3 to 2 (don't know if that is dovish enough, tbh).
It's not, which is the reason for the sell off- the market was pricing in only 1.

 
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Jay Powell mostly sticking to his guns, more defiant than I expected. 

He has mentioned excess is corporate leverage a few times, think he might be trying to pull some of that excess out of the system. Either that, or he truly believes the economy is on solid footing. 

 
Not changing course on balance sheet normalization, market will not like that.

ETA: He basically said that is on autopilot. 

ETA2: Down 150 points since this comment.

 
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Everything that he's saying and doing is perfectly reasonable, but the market doesn't want to hear it. This is what I expected would happen, the market is acting like an addict going through withdrawal.

 
Everything that he's saying and doing is perfectly reasonable, but the market doesn't want to hear it. This is what I expected would happen, the market is acting like an addict going through withdrawal.
Bingo!

He's taking away the punch bowl, not an easy thing to do, but absolutely a necessity. 

 
This man has stones, I like him!

Sure, my 401k will finish the year down 10%, but long term, I like what he is doing, I anticipate this decline will be a blip on my radar in 2030. Pull the excess out of the system now, well done Jay! Yellen should've started this earlier, he is in a super tough spot. 

He'll prob go down in history as a bad Fed chair, but he is doing what is necessary, in the face of adversity nonetheless. Guy was absolutely Trump's best appointment across the board, IMO. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Not changing course on balance sheet normalization, market will not like that.

ETA: He basically said that is on autopilot. 

ETA2: Down 150 points since this comment.
Update me on what they’ve unloaded to date on their balance sheet relative to what’s left?

 
This man has stones, I like him!

Sure, my 401k will finish the year down 10%, but long term, I like what he is doing, I anticipate this decline will be a blip on my radar in 2030. Pull the excess out of the system now, well done Jay! Yellen should've started this earlier, he is in a super tough spot. 

He'll prob go down in history as a bad Fed chair, but he is doing what is necessary, in the face of adversity nonetheless. Guy was absolutely Trump's best appointment across the board, IMO. 
I'm on the fence on these rate hikes.  I think the strongest argument is ensuring the Fed has more arrows in its quiver when the downturn comes.  But inflation is below 2% and apparently there is plenty of slack in the workforce as wages aren't escalating quickly.  

 
Very little unloaded.

At the current pace, it would take about 5 years to get to pre-crisis levels.
And they were just saying what has been unloaded to date is 75% of the Feds total 2007 balance sheet.....it really is ridiculous how much money they printed to kick the can down the road. 

 
I’m the poor person who make money again today.
I think you are on ignore. I probably am as well. There is potential to drop to 2350 now as well as 2100-2200 region. However there is a b-wave rally coming in 2019 which can go as high as 2900.

 
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/20/cramer-fed-rate-hikes-widen-wealth-gap-by-hurting-working-americans.html

Is this guy the biggest idiot ever? The rich people won?

Ummmmm, pretty sure a stock market rout decreases the wealth gap, am I missing something here? 
Did you read the article?  He's highlighting the fact that once you get huge stacks of cash you can park your wealth in 3.5% earning CD and similar and get perfectly ok earnings while the rest of us schlobs have to get 8% CAGR on index funds or we are unlikely to close the gap.  

 
Did you read the article?  He's highlighting the fact that once you get huge stacks of cash you can park your wealth in 3.5% earning CD and similar and get perfectly ok earnings while the rest of us schlobs have to get 8% CAGR on index funds or we are unlikely to close the gap.  
Yes I did. I actually watched his segment on it last night too. While that might be true, the super wealthy are losing A LOT more money than anyone here right now, I don’t consider that winning :shrug:

Furthermore, markets move fast, tides turn quick. They’ll have to pay penalties for early redemptions if they decide the time is right to get back in, reducing the yield further.

The wealth gap will shrink in a bear market, it doesn’t take an economist to run simple numbers like that.

Also, the highest CD I’m seeing for a 2 year right now is 2.8%. Based on the spreads between the 2/5 T Bills, I’d imagine there isn’t much of a premium on 5 anyways. 

Lastly, almost nobody wins in a bear market, so it’s foolish to say the rich are winning. 

 
Did you read the article?  He's highlighting the fact that once you get huge stacks of cash you can park your wealth in 3.5% earning CD and similar and get perfectly ok earnings while the rest of us schlobs have to get 8% CAGR on index funds or we are unlikely to close the gap.  
Also, to point out the obvious, those with huge sums of money (someone who can park money and yield like $280k a year on it), have already won. I’d assume they’re much happier with the returns over the last decade than a CD.

 
Amazon around $1,450 again. Anyone buying?
I’d think about it but I’m not buying anything right now outside of 401ks that just keep buying. I’m about 70% cash and 10% of my investments are active 401ks so it’s DCAing anyway and I don’t mind buying lower. The 20% sucks a little but it’s better than most since the 70% has had that really nice run up for years. I do have a large amount vesting and while this sucks, 80% of it is vested over the next two years and honestly it’s almost better to best lower and then appreciate since the vested amount is income taxed not capital gains. Also, nothing needed short term so I’ll ride out and just max out the 401ks and wait for the ride back up that hopefully coincides with retirement. So glad I sold my large block of AMZN at $1770 or so. Would have been down $40k in two weeks. 

 

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