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Stock Thread (22 Viewers)

chet said:
I have a lot of confidence in the stock but that doesn't mean it is without risk. As I said above, I am considering selling my most valuable asset to them for more shares.  If they execute,  CYDY will be much higher in 12 months barring some external event.
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It has been interesting to read about this.  I hope you guys all make bank.

A bit cautionary - I remember CLPA going from $30 to $8 (after hours, of course) one afternoon back in 1999 or so.  They were going to cure cancer.  Even made 60 Minutes.  Then bad news from the phase 3 trial and poof.  A coworker's brother-in-law was big into it, highly leveraged.  I think he had to sell his house, not sure, it was bad.  I lost only $2500, ending up with 10 shares of OSI Pharma as a souvenir.

 
I can’t even fathom having an extra 5 or 10 mil floating around, just to throw at penny stocks for fun. 

 
Did a little re-balancing/tax harvesting last week. Tried to put in an order for 5k CYDY through Wellstrade. Wouldn't go through. 

 
Capella said:
The party is over 
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Considering yesterday’s results, today’s not bad at all. The pre-market looked much more bleak. Amazon’s my worst performer but it’s still up 10% from the low in early October. I’ve got some shares I’d sell if it can get up around 2k just to diversify and buy some stocks I think have way more room to grow over the next 5 years. I think there’s some tailwinds and today is a respite from the recent jump.

 
So it looks like those of us that were still holding some Cobal 27 (CBLLF) now own Conic Metals (CONXF) at a fraction of the $ we had before. :toiletflush:

 
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I put in a limit order for CYDY at 90 cents just as the market opened. The price went down to .90 a few minutes later, but it does not appear that it filled. Currently confused.

 
chet said:
I have a lot of confidence in the stock but that doesn't mean it is without risk. As I said above, I am considering selling my most valuable asset to them for more shares.  If they execute,  CYDY will be much higher in 12 months barring some external event.
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Who is “them” and “they”? The actual company? Your broker?

if “they” execute, which means you have millions more shares, how would that mean price will be higher in 12 months? Because you’d have locked up much of the float?

 
kevzilla said:
I put in a limit order for CYDY at 90 cents just as the market opened. The price went down to .90 a few minutes later, but it does not appear that it filled. Currently confused.
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OTC type trades aren’t standard, which is why some of the people above’s accounts wouldn’t even let them buy the shares. Also, if you are checking instant prices in Google or something else their stock price will be delayed. That might be the issue if you think you are looking at the real time price. I haven’t bought any but I was going to with some other stocks I am buying soon, so I am just using the experience with other stocks.

 
stbugs said:
OTC type trades aren’t standard, which is why some of the people above’s accounts wouldn’t even let them buy the shares. Also, if you are checking instant prices in Google or something else their stock price will be delayed. That might be the issue if you think you are looking at the real time price. I haven’t bought any but I was going to with some other stocks I am buying soon, so I am just using the experience with other stocks.
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Order received at 9:34 EST. Hit .90 at 9:40 EST. I would understand if Fidelity wouldn't let me buy it, but they gave an order number. Why, if they had no intention of filling it?

 
NajehHejan said:
Who is “them” and “they”? The actual company? Your broker?

if “they” execute, which means you have millions more shares, how would that mean price will be higher in 12 months? Because you’d have locked up much of the float?
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Per Yahoo, float is 349 million shares. Chet would have to sell his wife and children.

 
NajehHejan said:
Who is “them” and “they”? The actual company? Your broker?

if “they” execute, which means you have millions more shares, how would that mean price will be higher in 12 months? Because you’d have locked up much of the float?
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Yeah, I just reread chet's quote...what's that about?  Is he selling them a building or something?

 
kevzilla said:
Order received at 9:34 EST. Hit .90 at 9:40 EST. I would understand if Fidelity wouldn't let me buy it, but they gave an order number. Why, if they had no intention of filling it?
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Again, I think because you had a limit order and it’s not a highly traded stock, there might not have been any available. That’s why off market and after hours trading can be a little harder. They gave you an order number because you asked them to but they weren’t able to fill it. Buying CYDY is a lot different than buying CYDY. If you did a market order, it likely would have been fine. 

 
kevzilla said:
Over a million shares today. Oh, well. I'll adjust.
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How much were you buying? I’m assuming thousands of shares. There were about 11k shares traded at the minute it was down at 0.90. Very easy to think that they couldn’t fill your order since it was a limit order and the price spiked up and down quickly. Not trying to be a #### but that’s a round price and there could have been a bunch of limit orders in place for that amount. 

 
The precious metals have been quietly very good for me.  Part of me wants to profit take and part of me wants to firmly hold.  The amount of global sovereign debt was my main motivator for buying precious metals with geopolitical events acting as a potential accelerator of higher prices.  The attack on Iran has the potential to lead into greater geo-political events.  How are other precious metal investors handling todays run up?  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
The precious metals have been quietly very good for me.  Part of me wants to profit take and part of me wants to firmly hold.  The amount of global sovereign debt was my main motivator for buying precious metals with geopolitical events acting as a potential accelerator of higher prices.  The attack on Iran has the potential to lead into greater geo-political events.  How are other precious metal investors handling todays run up?  
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I dunno the gsr is stupid high and I can't see myself buying more yellow stuff. Market is juiced.  I have a couple kg of gold and will be looking to unload at 1600 and higher for silver if this keeps going. 

 
Al Czervik said:
So it looks like those of us that were still holding some Cobal 27 (CBLLF) now own Conic Metals (CONXF) at a fraction of the $ we had before. :toiletflush:
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You also got $4CDN cash for each share you owned.  Still sucks, but make sure your account also shows the cash infusion.

Nickel could take off and Conic will benefit.  

Sorry guys. :(

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
The precious metals have been quietly very good for me.  Part of me wants to profit take and part of me wants to firmly hold.  The amount of global sovereign debt was my main motivator for buying precious metals with geopolitical events acting as a potential accelerator of higher prices.  The attack on Iran has the potential to lead into greater geo-political events.  How are other precious metal investors handling todays run up?  
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I’m actually not sure how much money I have. But I do know how many pounds of money I have.

 
Still getting my feet wet as far as investing in individual stocks, but what are your general strategies?

Do you invest 'x' % of your paychecks into stocks? 

Buy/Sell? What's your tolerance?

How do you suggest getting started? Looking for any general advice, etc.

 
cubd8 said:
Still getting my feet wet as far as investing in individual stocks, but what are your general strategies?

Do you invest 'x' % of your paychecks into stocks? 

Buy/Sell? What's your tolerance?

How do you suggest getting started? Looking for any general advice, etc.
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Do you have debt outside your mortgage? A 401k? A Roth? Is this a brokerage account? Do you need life insurance? Lots of important questions to consider first. I’d start with debt. I’d shy away from picking stocks if you have loans outside your mortgage.

All that said, get started by consuming a lot of information. Start small with companies you know. A mutual fund or ETF might be s better first step. Again, lots to hash out.

 
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Was expecting the market to start off a lot lower and a lot more turbulent today.   Almost feels like the market is pricing itself thinking that Iran is going to do little to nothing to retaliate.  While I'm happy about how the market is performing today--I have to say that it baffles me.   This whole situation with Iran is a giant volcano of uncertainty that just got unleashed and it doesn't seem like the market is really taking it all that seriously.   I think it's great that our markets are so resilient-- but I don't know if I trust today's strength in the face of this turmoil one lick. 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Almost feels like the market is pricing itself thinking that Iran is going to do little to nothing to retaliate.  While I'm happy about how the market is performing today--I have to say that it baffles me.  
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IMO, It has more to do with the fact that we've decoupled on oil.  US shale has made that market and the markets overall much more stable.  A big shock there isn't the same as it used to be.

Also, current economic indicators are pretty good.  Housing is superb, inflation is staying low and expected to stay low, unemployment is incredible, manufacturing is getting a bit better (or at least not worse).  The only real drag seems to be autos and auto loan issues.

Personally I expect the market to be choppy for a while and may spike down with an attack of some sort.  We're currently pretty overbought and it wouldn't surprise me to see a lackluster January.

 
Sand said:
IMO, It has more to do with the fact that we've decoupled on oil.  US shale has made that market and the markets overall much more stable.  A big shock there isn't the same as it used to be.

Also, current economic indicators are pretty good.  Housing is superb, inflation is staying low and expected to stay low, unemployment is incredible, manufacturing is getting a bit better (or at least not worse).  The only real drag seems to be autos and auto loan issues.

Personally I expect the market to be choppy for a while and may spike down with an attack of some sort.  We're currently pretty overbought and it wouldn't surprise me to see a lackluster January.
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Honestly--I agree with a lot of your points but oil is the least of my worries. Iraq is already pushing to get us out, Iran has already stated they are abandoning their nuclear agreement---and much of the Middle East went from being resistant to Iran to being sympathetic to them.  A very volatile part of the world just got exponentially more volatile and our markets are acting like its just a standard walk in the park.   If all the markets suffer from this is a lackluster January--I'd view that as being a huge concern. Markets are supposed to price in risk. This market is refusing to do so.   

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Honestly--I agree with a lot of your points but oil is the least of my worries. Iraq is already pushing to get us out, Iran has already stated they are abandoning their nuclear agreement---and much of the Middle East went from being resistant to Iran to being sympathetic to them.  A very volatile part of the world just got exponentially more volatile and our markets are acting like its just a standard walk in the park.   If all the markets suffer from this is a lackluster January--I'd view that as being a huge concern. Markets are supposed to price in risk. This market is refusing to do so.   
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What risk?  What can Iran do to create issues for us?  We already spend gulf war levels of money and then some.   Our oil market is more robust and demand perhaps has peaked. 

 
culdeus said:
What risk?  What can Iran do to create issues for us?  We already spend gulf war levels of money and then some.   Our oil market is more robust and demand perhaps has peaked. 
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What do you mean what risk?   Iran sponsors terrorism, they have major capabilities to do cyber attacks, they can cause major global and political uprest, if Iraq forces the US to vacate---who do you think takes control over there, the nuclear risk, the risk that they could utilized their many militias.  Oil is the least of my concern as if they damage oil--they would be by. nature hurting themselves.  The Middle East just got a 100 times more complicated and risky than it was before.   Iran is not like Afghanistan or Iraq--they are far more formidable than the backwards third world country that our media is portraying them to be.   I'm certainly not calling for our markets to crumble--but good lord---a stable market is one that acknowledges and prices in risk.   Our market just keeps rising with no metaphoric safety net in case the bleep hits the fan.   I personally feel like that it would be far healthier for our markets to actually price some risk in as opposed to just chugging along as if the elephant in the room as non existent.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
What do you mean what risk?   Iran sponsors terrorism, they have major capabilities to do cyber attacks, they can cause major global and political uprest, if Iraq forces the US to vacate---who do you think takes control over there, the nuclear risk, the risk that they could utilized their many militias.  Oil is the least of my concern as if they damage oil--they would be by. nature hurting themselves.  The Middle East just got a 100 times more complicated and risky than it was before.   Iran is not like Afghanistan or Iraq--they are far more formidable than the backwards third world country that our media is portraying them to be.   I'm certainly not calling for our markets to crumble--but good lord---a stable market is one that acknowledges and prices in risk.   Our market just keeps rising with no metaphoric safety net in case the bleep hits the fan.   I personally feel like that it would be far healthier for our markets to actually price some risk in as opposed to just chugging along as if the elephant in the room as non existent.  
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Risk in my mind is something like Iraq setting their oil fields on fire in the 2000s.  Scorched earth.  We needed that oil then, and it hurt.

Iran does something stupid and we wipe them off the map, and we don't care wtf they do with their oil. Leave it in the ground, who cares.  

 
Sand said:
Also, current economic indicators are pretty good.  Housing is superb, inflation is staying low and expected to stay low, unemployment is incredible, manufacturing is getting a bit better (or at least not worse).  The only real drag seems to be autos and auto loan issues.
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Here is my issue with this statement:

https://i.imgur.com/kBGvfdB.png

Isn't everything you mentioned priced in, hence the huge multiple expansion? Isn't it time for earnings to start playing catch up? 

 
culdeus said:
Risk in my mind is something like Iraq setting their oil fields on fire in the 2000s.  Scorched earth.  We needed that oil then, and it hurt.

Iran does something stupid and we wipe them off the map, and we don't care wtf they do with their oil. Leave it in the ground, who cares.  
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If we attack Iran like that--it would be world war 3--things are far more complex that you are making it out to be.We assassinated a high ranking official in a third party country with no clearance to do so. It's not just Iran who is questioning our actions anymore.  Any further action or aggressive escalation that we take is not as easy as "boom--problem solved".  This attitude is why much of the world is growing to hate us with a greater passion and motivation.  

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Here is my issue with this statement:

https://i.imgur.com/kBGvfdB.png

Isn't everything you mentioned priced in, hence the huge multiple expansion? Isn't it time for earnings to start playing catch up? 
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Sure, that's possible.  There are many who would argue that with low interest rates (S&P dividend yield is higher than the 10-year - historical graph) the higher multiples are ok.  There is also the issue that the multiple expansion is concentrated in not very many large high flyers (FANG, etc.).  The growth/value ratio in the S&P is at historic levels - value has lagged tremendously as the market is pretty bifurcated.

Not saying you're wrong at all.  Just adding to the discussion.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
If we attack Iran like that--it would be world war 3--things are far more complex that you are making it out to be.We assassinated a high ranking official in a third party country with no clearance to do so. It's not just Iran who is questioning our actions anymore.  Any further action or aggressive escalation that we take is not as easy as "boom--problem solved".  This attitude is why much of the world is growing to hate us with a greater passion and motivation.  
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Ok, well buy some TVIX then.  :shrug:

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Is it possible Goldman's chief analyst is following this thread?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/almost-none-of-the-sp-500s-blockbuster-rally-in-2019-can-be-pegged-to-rising-earnings-and-thats-a-problem-says-goldman-2020-01-06?mod=home-page
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This is another major factor that leads me to believe that are markets are irrationally high and are not factoring risk into their pricing.   This upward march endlessly higher while ignoring earnings, major geopolitical risks and factors,  the possibility of a negative interest rate world..etc--is scary.  The fed has fewer bullets now to combat any sort of market freefall and recessionary concerns.   I'm certainly not apocalyptic in my views--but I absolutely think I'm going to cash in on some of my earnings and sit on the sidelines for a while.  I'll hold onto my precious metals--as I think there is lots of room for them to go up further.    The way the market acted today really leads me to believe that there is a ton of financial engineering going on in our markets that are making prices artificially high.  Once this gets realized by more, and once actual risk is priced into the market--I see a moderate to massive correction coming.  Sure--maybe it rolls higher for a while before that happens--and I'm okay with missing out on some of that.    Today's market action concerned me a lot more than it did give me confidence.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
This is another major factor that leads me to believe that are markets are irrationally high and are not factoring risk into their pricing.   
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So all those hedge funds, big banks, etc. full of PhD math geeks are ignoring something you see plainly?

 
Sand said:
So all those hedge funds, big banks, etc. full of PhD math geeks are ignoring something you see plainly?
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All of those same entities were doing the same thing to overinflate things in the last major bubble.   Those institutions are not infallable--and the super wealthy will keep doing whatever they can as long as their pockets get fatter.   They have no reason to change things up as they never seem to suffer any penalities for their roles in financial engineering.   It's the small and middle class people that are exposed to irrational markets that end up suffering.  If there was ever a day where the market needed to show a molecule that it actually prices in risk--it was today--and it didn't do that.   I personally find that very disturbing as to me it shows that the market is blatantly irrational.  Irrational does not translate to stable in my opinion--and the fed is not in the position it was years ago to combat against weakness.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
All of those same entities were doing the same thing to overinflate things in the last major bubble.   Those institutions are not infallable--and the super wealthy will keep doing whatever they can as long as their pockets get fatter.   They have no reason to change things up as they never seem to suffer any penalities for their roles in financial engineering.   It's the small and middle class people that are exposed to irrational markets that end up suffering.  If there was ever a day where the market needed to show a molecule that it actually prices in risk--it was today--and it didn't do that.   I personally find that very disturbing as to me it shows that the market is blatantly irrational.  Irrational does not translate to stable in my opinion--and the fed is not in the position it was years ago to combat against weakness.  
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Very good points.  The bolded is an interesting comment.  The big boys were taken to the cleaners in the last recessions just like the small boys.  The small and middle tend to DCA into the market (great for stability in portfolio returns) but at the same time tend to freak when the market drops and bail (awful and the cause of poor investor returns).  Everything I do in my personal stash is to insulate myself (structurally and emotionally) from the latter while enjoying the returns in the former.  

 
Sand said:
Very good points.  The bolded is an interesting comment.  The big boys were taken to the cleaners in the last recessions just like the small boys.  The small and middle tend to DCA into the market (great for stability in portfolio returns) but at the same time tend to freak when the market drops and bail (awful and the cause of poor investor returns).  Everything I do in my personal stash is to insulate myself (structurally and emotionally) from the latter while enjoying the returns in the former.  
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The big boys didn't nearly suffer the way the middle and lower classes did. The government implemented "too big to fail" types of rational, they loaned money to keep companies like GM afloat,  none of the bankers that propelled the crisis by loaning out large sums of money to people that they knew had no chance of paying it back really suffered any jail time. The government was not loaning money to the small guys to keep their ma and pa buisnesses open.  The government was not directly helping the lower and middle class people from losing their homes.   Middle and lower class  people were losing their homes and living on the streets--while the upper management and CEO's that were complicit  in the bubble bursting were able to live relatively normal lives in the aftermath. If anything--the last bubble allowed the super wealthy to come back in the the markets and purchase things for fractions of the dollar while the small and middle class people were struggling to get back on track.  It's all finanical engineering that favors the big fish.   Don't kid yourself.  

Hell--look at what Wells Fargo got away with. They opened up millions of accounts for people without their knowledge to get bonuses.  If a single individual did that to just a few people--they would get jail time for identity theft--but not one banker got in trouble for it.  So no--the big boys generally do not suffer like the small boys.   They generally get a slap on the wrist and not much more.   

 
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