culdeus
Footballguy
I'm really worried they will start dumping bonds and all my bond funds just get slaughtered. That's not a huge portion of the portfolio, but I feel exposed on both equity and bonds with this ####.
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Stock Thread (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Even if everyone is home sick, they just keep bringing ####
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I feel like the only real risk with bonds is oversupply, and we aren't there... yet.
Rates need to stay low and the Fed has your back. If rates go up, defaults and systemic risk become a serious issue.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Currently an RCH over 1%
I can only hope this races to 10% of my worth too
I'm just saying, I'm seeing comments like "all-in" and "125k shares" etc etc... Just trying to put some perspective out there. I'm hoping for Lambo too, but it's purely speculative and nobody should be invested more than they're prepared to lose on this one.
dkp993
Footballguy
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
I’ve only got 5k shares and throwing on some more yesterday was very tempting. I’m still around 10% cash looking at my total portfolio (IRA/401ks and taxable), which might not be bad. Just frustrating knowing I bought in on a bunch of things in October and that cash position could be way freaking up had I pushed all in on stocks I was watching. Almost everything I was watching is up 30-50% and some more than that.
Yeah, I would have doubled my position yesterday but even then it’s still less than 1% so it’s not changing my life. If I had invested at 0.3, it’d be a bigger slice but it’d be way up. Oh well, double digits and it’s a nice ride!I can only hope this races to 10% of my worth too
I'm just saying, I'm seeing comments like "all-in" and "125k shares" etc etc... Just trying to put some perspective out there. I'm hoping for Lambo too, but it's purely speculative and nobody should be invested more than they're prepared to lose on this one.
dkp993
Footballguy
If this goes the way we all are hoping I’m betting we are all going to be looking back feeling this way.
Oh yeah, I don’t think I was ever throwing in $100k or anything like that on CYDY. Just mad that almost every stock I watch is up big time since I pushed a bunch of money off the sidelines. Just mad I didn’t push it all in.
Warrior
Footballguy
So true. It was less market timing and more feeling like those stocks were at a good entry point. I was right and they were all long term holds, well until they aren’t. Just more mad that I could have gotten strep discounts. Glad I bought the ones I did but there were some obvious ones that I didn’t.
chet
Footballguy
Lots of potential positive catalysts for CYDY coming up.
1. Deal with China for Coronavirus
2. BLA filing
3. Start of basket cancer trial with 70 patients lined up
4. Result of BTD filing on breast cancer
I am impressed with how the stock rebounded after the hatchet piece and bear attack by Culper Research. No guarantees but it feels like the risk is to the upside here.
1. Deal with China for Coronavirus
2. BLA filing
3. Start of basket cancer trial with 70 patients lined up
4. Result of BTD filing on breast cancer
I am impressed with how the stock rebounded after the hatchet piece and bear attack by Culper Research. No guarantees but it feels like the risk is to the upside here.
Warrior
Footballguy
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Bought some Barrick Gold today, they report before the bell tomorrow. 2nd biggest miner on the planet. They have slashed their debt from $12B to $3B since 2012 (during a not so bullish market for gold)... Now that the gold bull market is setting up nicely, they're my favorite way to play gold for years to come.
chet
Footballguy
They filed this PR last week to announce they filed a Phase 2 trial for all types of solid cancer tumors. This is a huge opportunity for the company. I assume that if they get results similar to breast cancer, they will file for a breakthrough designation.
Warrior
Footballguy
So, based on reading this thread, I’ve done some research on CYDY. To summarize my thoughts, I find the Culper report more on point than not, and that overall company raises multiple red flags. l‘ve investigated options to short the stock, but have not made this move yet.
I work in the industry, and while I’m not an expert in HIV treatments/preventions or cancer, I have more insight than most. For example I know HIV is a crowded field with big Pharma working diligently on improved options for patients with infinitely more resources that CYDY. Merck’s big cancer drug Keytruda has dozens of clinical trials ongoing, is it clear where CYDY might fit as a cancer treatment?
I realize I’m raising an unpopular perspective, but I offer my opinion to help this group make better informed investment decisions.
I work in the industry, and while I’m not an expert in HIV treatments/preventions or cancer, I have more insight than most. For example I know HIV is a crowded field with big Pharma working diligently on improved options for patients with infinitely more resources that CYDY. Merck’s big cancer drug Keytruda has dozens of clinical trials ongoing, is it clear where CYDY might fit as a cancer treatment?
I realize I’m raising an unpopular perspective, but I offer my opinion to help this group make better informed investment decisions.
chet
Footballguy
OK newbie with one post. If you're a shill for Culper, then I sincerely hope you lose all of your money--not because you're a short seller, but because you're a lying, manipulative blood sucker. If this is someone's alias, then good on you.
If you're legitimate, then I suggest you learn much more about the science because the people in the know have forgotten more than you'll ever know.
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Capella
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
D-Day
Footballguy
I thought we had an initiation process of the newcomer having the choice of a kick to the groin, or 15 minutes in the politics forum. I am soooo happy I went with the groin kick.
Capella
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I would love to know what, specifically, you found in their report to be on point
Good stuff here.
Big pharma is always looking to compliment their pipelines and are loaded with cash. CYDY is relatively cheap with a presumably a product near commercialization. If the product has so much value, why wasn’t CYDY acquired?
A big pharma would accelerate regulatory filings in EU and other priority markets, and also be better prepared to get payers (insurance, government) on board to cover the high cost of the drug.
My honest answer is, pretty much all of it. The mention of the CEO felonies may have been over the top. A few high level thoughts.
Broken promises. Lots of talk from the CEO, maybe speak less as the drug approval process is not straight forward. He speaks as if there is no competition-there is.
Fire CMO? Not a good look to me.
Partner with Vyera? Do you think that’s the best choice to commercialize and get top value from a new drug? What do we think sharing 50% of sales with them might indicate about projected sales?
Freak Show
Footballguy
Not trying to interrupt the conversation on CYDY, but I am interested in opinions on Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil Corporation as an investment over the next 5 to 8 years?
Thanks for this. Merck has acquired 2 companies recently to trial Keytruda combinations. A combo with Merck would make Lironlimab grow so much faster than not. My opinion is this acquisition would be complete by now.
Chet, I’m offering my opinion here, and willing to learn and be wrong...
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
My big book of investing
Chapter 1 - Don't invest in companies with competition
Chapter 2 - Don't invest in companies that don't get purchased by other companies
Chapter 3 - Don't invest in companies that fire executives
Chapter 4 - Don't invest in companies that miss deadlines
Chapter 1 - Don't invest in companies with competition
Chapter 2 - Don't invest in companies that don't get purchased by other companies
Chapter 3 - Don't invest in companies that fire executives
Chapter 4 - Don't invest in companies that miss deadlines
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I actually do hate that they partnered with Vyera. Ignore the financials and everything else. It's, to use a technical term, icky.
chet
Footballguy
I will work under the assumption that you're being genuine in your request for info.
Why would CYDY sell to Merck or any BP if they truly believe they have a game changing blockbuster? Any of their indications is worth minimum $2BB and they have 20+.
chet
Footballguy
I have been the first to say that CYDY's CEO is a poor communicator who has over promised and underdelivered. However, small companies trading on the NASDAQ pink sheets don't merit Jack Welch like CEOs.
That being said, the most recent delay of their combination HIV BLA submission is entirely due to the FDA requesting safety data from their mono HIV trial. Barring any other FDA requests, the CEO is confident that the last two sections of the BLA will be submitted by the end of February. If that happens, it will be very positive for the stock.
Partnering for the combination HIV therapy with Vyera provides 87.5MM in milestone payments. Is Vyera the ideal partner? Obviously no but it de-risks CYDY in a major way and allows them to generate much needed revenue so the need for dilutive fund raising is minimized.
chet
Footballguy
And we haven't talked about the cancer prospects for this company. 4 of 4 patients with metastatic breast cancer have been given a new lease on life because of this drug. They believe other cancer patients with solid tumor cancer will be similarly treated with Lironlimab. If this proves true, they will have indeed proved the drug to be a blockbuster.
kevzilla
Footballguy
I just find it increasingly difficult to back fossil fuel companies over any time frame. If yield you seek, perhaps have a look at MLPX, though midstream plays are seemingly as sensitive as the exploration companies to the vicissitudes of oil prices these days.
I guess the question begs what exactly are you looking for in an investment? If you're looking for income, I think XOM offers a very safe income play. It has a great yield that is easily covered. It's relatively cheap historically speaking, and I see no danger of the dividend being cut any time soon (at least in the next 5 years). So, if you're looking to park some cash and get 5-6%, well, you could do a lot worse, imho.
That said, growth prospects in oil and gas are not looking pretty. Between ESG, electric vehicles and the massive increase in domestic production available here, well, big oil is going to need to find ways to cut costs to remain highly profitable.
I don't directly own any oil and gas companies any longer, the last one I held was OXY whom I'm much more familiar with then the major oil producers, however, I do own a few dividend index funds which do have big stakes in oil/gas - and for now that's all I'm comfortable holding.
Personally, I feel there are a few big tailwinds that very likely are going to help oil in the future so I keep an eye out for buying opportunities. First and foremost is OPEC is not pleased with the low price of oil and they can very easily tighten the screws. And even with the US pumping like crazy, there is still massive demand abroad to be met and this can drive prices higher quickly with production cuts. The other one is the stock market is pretty frothy right now, so most investors are not concerned at all by yield if they can get growth easily outpacing 8% historic averages. And I'm not saying a precipitous decline is coming any time soon, but, I do think that expectations are unreasonably high right now. Bad news will come. Markets will drop. There are a lot of baby boomers out there relying on income plays for day to day money and there will be a big flight from risk into the safe havens of dividend payers.
One other headwind I failed to mention, and I don't have my notes in front of me as I'm typing from work, but there is some massive debt in oil companies right now, some crazy number like 4x the yearly revenue in all oil is indebted. So you need to look for who owes what, because if/when rates rise, these companies are in big big trouble.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Safe yield = VZ imo.
CCI, I mentioned it years ago, current yield is around 3%, I’ve basically doubled up on it in the last few years with dividends reinvested, maybe a little late to get on this ride though.
CCI, I mentioned it years ago, current yield is around 3%, I’ve basically doubled up on it in the last few years with dividends reinvested, maybe a little late to get on this ride though.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Barrick Gold increases dividend, brings debt down to a little above $2B, it was around $12B in 2012. Symbol is GOLD if anyone is interested. Nice earnings this morning.
Jayrok
Footballguy
I had this question last week. I thought Gilead was/is going to acquire the company. Maybe they're (or some other big pharma) still working on it. Maybe they were the driver behind the Culper report in a move to cause distrust with the CEO and drive the price down as far as possible before making them an offer they can't refuse.
I know. Maybe it hasn't happened yet because they are waiting to see trial results from a larger patient grouping. On the other side, maybe N. Pourhassan is resisting because he believes he has something special on his hands and doesn't want to let it go just yet. I don't know anything about the field so just spit-balling.
Thanks for assuming I am being genuine. I perceived some contributors to this thread diving in deep on CYDY and felt the need to offer a contrarian view, as I know the industry a bit more than most.
If this company is sitting on a $40 billion drug, do you really think this company and partners are the best to execute on this? Currently the company is valued at less than $1 billion, do you think the current valuation is is so far off they wouldn’t sell for $3 billion?
chet
Footballguy
As I've said above, there's nothing perfect about Vyera or the CEO. From what I've seen however, the CEO knows what he has and would not sell for $3BB--I believe he's already been approached by BP but has rebuffed them. They have some super preferred shares to ward off any kind of hostile takeover. He thinks the stock is way undervalued and they get to 3BB+ market cap through stock price appreciation by YE or sooner. On last week's conference call he said he thinks their ultimate stock price is in the high triple digits--I found that irresponsible but it shows what he thinks of the value of the company.
chet
Footballguy
I am sure it is and they just awarded themselves more stock last week. This is the exception to your pretty much all cases--I don't think they want to sell. They believe they have something that could be as big as Keytruda (~$22BB in revenue in 2022) and they want to attain that value for their shareholders.
