Stock Thread

[cosjobs 15,300]

2 hours ago, stbugs said:

Don't. My first post may have been a bit mean I guess, if you read it that way. When I saw that number and tied it to the thread about gambling behind his wife’s back (said she would be mad so obviously a problem before) and losing almost everything in the crypto thread, that amount did give me pause. I could be wrong and honestly at this point with two people saying to back off, I don’t care anymore. If it does well and he actually has that much he’ll have a nice pay day. I’ll be happy as well but if it bottoms out, not a big deal to me.

STOP GOSSIPING. 

[kevzilla 7,749]

3 hours ago, kevzilla said:

Placed a limit order for TVIX at $39.99. With 20% of my IRA.

Actually, actually true. Promptly fell out of bed and touched its 52-week low before lifting a little. Down 3.58% for the afternoon. 

[Whyatt 263]

3 hours ago, chet said:

Another paid interview with the CEO of CYDY on how they plan to treat the Coronavirus.

So much news/drama for this tiny company in a single day. I’m really interested to see how this plays out.

[Buckna 1,471]

3 hours ago, siffoin said:

"Nuclear missiles exchanged between Iran and Israel.  World War III begins.  Stock Market rallys on reconstruction.  Home Builders Index to All-Time Highs."

Only one data point among many out there but read that Greek 10 year bond yields fell below 1%. A country that defaulted just a few years ago that still has a 16% unemployment rate in a “booming economy” can borrow cheaper than the US, makes tons of sense right?

[Brony 7,613]

I used to do pharma bus dev and valuation. Its so difficult to assess market value of these pre launch companies as they don't need to convince 50 companies they are worth $x billion, they just need to convince one. 

[Acrobat7 145]

12 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Barrick Gold increases dividend, brings debt down to a little above $2B, it was around $12B in 2012. Symbol is GOLD if anyone is interested. Nice earnings this morning.

I mentioned them in this thread a couple of weeks ago. Them and FNV and NEM. 

Has been a really good group of gold investments for me lately. 

[shadrap 1,790]

8 hours ago, cosjobs said:

I'm generally strongly opposed to gossipng about other people in here. 

Also you have no idea what his percentage stake is. It could be less than yours.

General advice is great, targeting other posters with judgements, not so much

this.

[[icon] 9,822]

As someone who's actually hung with Cav... 

From what I understand, He's got a pretty solid nest egg, as well as appetite for trolling and ####### with people. 

[Otis 13,526]

Cross posting this here:

 

Stupid question maybe:

If we’re confident that the market will continue to go up over the long haul, why shouldn’t I be putting all or a large chunk of my portfolio into an ETF like UDOW, Pro Shares Ultra Pro Dow 30, which tracks the Dow but gives you 3x the movement in either direction.  I look back just 10 years on that and if I got 15 or 20 years of that return before I retire, I’d retire a pretty wealthy dude. 
 

What am I missing here?  Why doesn’t everyone do this?

[Tool 1,588]

43 minutes ago, Otis said:

Cross posting this here:

 

Stupid question maybe:

If we’re confident that the market will continue to go up over the long haul, why shouldn’t I be putting all or a large chunk of my portfolio into an ETF like UDOW, Pro Shares Ultra Pro Dow 30, which tracks the Dow but gives you 3x the movement in either direction.  I look back just 10 years on that and if I got 15 or 20 years of that return before I retire, I’d retire a pretty wealthy dude. 
 

What am I missing here?  Why doesn’t everyone do this?

20% corrections are not uncommon, let's say the market takes a 30% downturn, how would you feel turning on CNBC watching the market go down like this and losing most of your portfolio?  Sure there's the potential for big gains and maybe it would even work out for you but would big gains really change your life that much?  What about big losses?

[pecorino 2,133]

22 hours ago, Sand said:

Really tough.  Alternative energy growth rates are down, but energy demand is still increasing.  Yet we have huge pawns all over the board moving with respect to oil prices, which makes it incredibly hard to see where that market is going.  XOM is pretty debt heavy and RDS has a massive debt load (right there with T in the "oh crap" pile).  CVX has been driving theirs down (I own a decent bit of CVX). 

Honestly, my little personal perspective - right now great swing trade.  I think oil companies will reflate after the virus item.  Once CVX hits 120+ again I'm selling and waiting until it drops near 110 to buy again.  I see a lot of yo-yo in this market continuing.  

Just a public service announcement that RBS B is going ex-dividend today (and markets are getting beat up) so the share price will drop a nice chunk. Anyone wanting to buy would be getting a near 52-week low price.

[Sand 5,800]

18 hours ago, stbugs said:

I’ve got a big house with enough room for a lap pool. 

25 yard or 50?  50s are the shizzle.

[McBokonon 3,301]

Elon Musk on the last earnings call two weeks ago when asked why he doesn't raise capital now with the stock price being so high.

Quote

So -- but we're spending money I think efficiently and we're not artificially limiting our progress. And then despite all that we are still generating positive cash. So in light of that, it doesn't make sense to raise money because we expect to generate cash despite this growth level.

Tesla today

Quote

Tesla Inc said on Thursday it plans to raise $2 billion by selling shares through a public offering.

I honestly don't see how anyone can feel comfortable investing in this company. I'm sure the cars are great and all that, but when I think of Musk, I don't think, "Responsible, honest financial steward."

[culdeus 7,431]

Going to start some overdue rebalancing.  This corona thing is going to get worse before it gets better.  

[Capella 30,475]

4 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Going to start some overdue rebalancing.  This corona thing is going to get worse before it gets better.  

We’ll be green by the end of the day. 

[Sand 5,800]

36 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

I honestly don't see how anyone can feel comfortable investing in this company. I'm sure the cars are great and all that, but when I think of Musk, I don't think, "Responsible, honest financial steward."

Yet if I was running that place I would have done the same thing - an opportunity to raise capital doesn't come around like this very often.  After going parabolic the valuation was insanely high, so a perfect time to issue shares.

 

[McBokonon 3,301]

Just now, Sand said:

Yet if I was running that place I would have done the same thing - an opportunity to raise capital doesn't come around like this very often.  After going parabolic the valuation was insanely high, so a perfect time to issue shares.

 

Totally. It's just the complete about-face in two weeks, like he ended the conference call and said, "That analyst guy had a great idea!"

[jvdesigns2002 3,151]

50 minutes ago, Capella said:

We’ll be green by the end of the day. 

Yup—and thats exactly why this market is marching on very scary territory. 

[skycriesmary 661]

2 hours ago, pecorino said:

Just a public service announcement that RBS B is going ex-dividend today (and markets are getting beat up) so the share price will drop a nice chunk. Anyone wanting to buy would be getting a near 52-week low price.

Looking at getting into a small oil play at these levels. Why is RBS B so much more beaten up in the last year than CVX or XOM? The dividend is 7.28% compared to 4.61 and 5.73. Obviously, they have better fundamentals, but that's a really sizable difference in the dividend. 

[stbugs 3,208]

2 hours ago, Sand said:

25 yard or 50?  50s are the shizzle.

Well we are on a hill, which is great for the backyard patio and screened porch. Very private and lots of trees behind us. I actually sent @Otis picks of my fireplace/built in bar and grill when he was doing his.

Anyway, as long as you don’t mind swimming up hill a bit, we could probably fit a 25 yard one. 50 would be tough unless we made it U shaped. I guess with a ladder between, it’s more of a slide than a lap pool, but maybe that’s more fun.

[stbugs 3,208]

1 hour ago, McBokonon said:

Elon Musk on the last earnings call two weeks ago when asked why he doesn't raise capital now with the stock price being so high.

Tesla today

I honestly don't see how anyone can feel comfortable investing in this company. I'm sure the cars are great and all that, but when I think of Musk, I don't think, "Responsible, honest financial steward."

TSLA is a stock that would worry me. Something like this dilutes the shares. There’s no ifs ands or buts about it. It does.shares started down like 4% and now they’re up almost 3%. That makes no sense. An offering like this makes shares worth less. Oh well, wish I bought some before the Q3 earnings but this run up is a bit much and days like this make you realize it’s not working right.

[stbugs 3,208]

37 minutes ago, jvdesigns2002 said:

Yup—and thats exactly why this market is marching on very scary territory. 

Honestly, that’s why I really do like individual stocks. Everything gets hit when things go down, but when you know something is growing by leaps and bounds, the stock upswing is warranted. The stocks that should worry people are the ones getting lifted because of the rising tide not their own fundamentals.

[stbugs 3,208]

1 hour ago, McBokonon said:

Totally. It's just the complete about-face in two weeks, like he ended the conference call and said, "That analyst guy had a great idea!"

I understand doing it but amazing that the stock is up a bunch today after opening well down. It makes sense but it is the company basically admitting that it’s a great price level to do an offering, i.e. we didn’t think the stock would be or should be at this price.

[siffoin 1,235]

In the process of positioning long into $GYPR.

[McBokonon 3,301]

2 minutes ago, siffoin said:

In the process of positioning long into $GYPR.

Is this a joke I'm not getting or a typo? I can't find this.

[siffoin 1,235]

1 minute ago, McBokonon said:

Is this a joke I'm not getting or a typo? I can't find this.

Get Yer Popcorn Ready

[Bob Sacamano 9,763]

For those of you using Fidelity, be careful if you ever change the way your dividends are invested. I attempted to change one position to reinvest in the security, and I apparently changed them all on accident. So, more AAPL for me today. Yay!

[McBokonon 3,301]

Just now, Bob Sacamano said:

For those of you using Fidelity, be careful if you ever change the way your dividends are invested. I attempted to change one position to reinvest in the security, and I apparently changed them all on accident. So, more AAPL for me today. Yay!

I turned off all automatic reinvestments as soon as trade commissions went to zero. 

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

1 minute ago, siffoin said:

Get Yer Popcorn Ready

I'm truly shocked at the complacency. My gut says buy some cheap insurance right now. 

 

[D-Day 950]

18 minutes ago, siffoin said:

In the process of positioning long into $GYPR.

.  When siffoin talks, I listen.  I don't understand what he's saying, but it does get my attention.

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

I'm looking at $42.50 puts on YUMC for 16 cents dated next Friday, thoughts, anyone?

This is a pure gamble, the opposite of an investment... I just like the odds.

Edited February 13, 2020 by fantasycurse42

[Bob Sacamano 9,763]

5 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I'm looking at $42.50 puts on YUMC for 16 cents dated next Friday, thoughts, anyone?

This is a pure gamble, the opposite of an investment... I just like the odds.

Because of the KFC worker with coronavirus?

[D-Day 950]

26 minutes ago, stbugs said:

TSLA is a stock that would worry me. Something like this dilutes the shares. There’s no ifs ands or buts about it. It does.shares started down like 4% and now they’re up almost 3%. That makes no sense. An offering like this makes shares worth less. Oh well, wish I bought some before the Q3 earnings but this run up is a bit much and days like this make you realize it’s not working right.

If my math is correct (remember, I'm a marketing major), the dilution was about 2%  If the only reason it dropped by 4%, then that was a buying opportunity.  My uneducated thoughts on TSLA (I own zero shares at this time) is that in the long run it should be a good investment.  I see Tesla as an aspirational product, much like Apple.  More and more people are jonesing to buy the vehicles vs other brands--gas or electric.  I would not buy TSLA at this level, but I'm hoping for a big pullback to start investing in TSLA. 

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Because of the KFC worker with coronavirus?

I find the spike in deaths highly suspicious... They can try to justify the spike in cases as a reclassification, but you can't use the same logic in deaths. It's possible we find out more in the coming days... If something was to get shredded, feels like this is a good spot to place some chips. This is more of a wager, but I'm going to put like $500 that I'm okay to lose and take a swing on like 30 puts. 

[siffoin 1,235]

9 minutes ago, D-Day said:

.  When siffoin talks, I listen.  I don't understand what he's saying, but it does get my attention.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  It's a "process".  I will say this - pulling out 30 year old charts and the market has never been this over-extended - not even close.  1999 looks reasonable to what I'm seeing today.  I see 2 possibilities.

1) We're in a new paradigm and this time it's different. Or

2) The market is in a position to where price and value are not in line...and price will begin to move back towards more reasonable valuation.

I'm BEGINNING to adjust.  The market is still bullish...it's just wildly over-extended.  Maybe we just continue to go up and up and up.  But don't be surprised if it doesn't.  I'm $GYPR(ing).

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

16 hours ago, Acrobat7 said:

I mentioned them in this thread a couple of weeks ago. Them and FNV and NEM. 

Has been a really good group of gold investments for me lately. 

Nothing like being up 4% in 3 days on an investment that is supposed to be conservative.

[Walking Boot 8,296]

Stupid options question.

Say there's a stock I'm interested in, and maybe wouldn't mind it getting put to me at a lower price, so I write (sell) a just-out-of-the-money put. Say it's at $40 and I write at $35. 

I've read elsewhere "the downside is unlimited" on writing options, but, is that correct in this case? Isn't the maximum downside that the stock goes to $0 and it gets put to me, so I have to pay up $3500? Isn't that my max exposure? Not sure where the "unlimited" comes in. (Unless the stock also pays a dividend in the interim and I'm on the hook for that, per share, as well, right? But still, can't be reasonably "unlimited"?)

[BassNBrew 11,153]

Listening to the advice here...Just sold my $22 share FB and $8 BAC.  Moved a little Amazon.  Dumped half of my mutual funds.  Gonna ride my Chevron, GE, and Exxon to $0.

Thanks to whoever tipped me on AKBA.  Not even sure what it is, but it's 3x in 1.5 years.

Remember Paragon and Star Bulk?  Not fun looking at those or AGFEED overtime I log in.

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

23 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

On a stock related note, CNBC is going to need to hire new writers for their headlines. Every day for the last month:

[insert index here] Climbs Despite Coronavirus Worries... They really need something new. 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs in comeback from coronavirus slide

ETA:

Starting to think this Coronavirus is good for the market.

Edited February 13, 2020 by fantasycurse42

[cosjobs 15,300]

2 hours ago, Bob Sacamano said:

For those of you using Fidelity, be careful if you ever change the way your dividends are invested. I attempted to change one position to reinvest in the security, and I apparently changed them all on accident. So, more AAPL for me today. Yay!

Just like when you get the wrong betting ticket at the track, keep it.

It might be God intervening on your behalf.

[cosjobs 15,300]

cross posted from retirement thread

 

I recently retired and my wife will next year.

Our current assets are: 

50% real property (home and rental equity)

30% 401K

5% Precious metals

5% Roth IRA (High risk/reward stock - CYDY)

15% cash (money market)

===================

My desire is to just maintain our value for the next 6-12 months (maybe longer) or maybe make a little money if things go to #### (Precious metals)

I am thinking of allocating my 401K to 1/3 "5 to go fund", 1/3 Inflation protected Treasury bonds. 1/3 Long term govt bonds

I'm also thinking of moving half of my cash to more precious metals.

With my desire simply to not lose any of my money (other than the 5% Roth gamble or precious metals if I'm chicken little), is there a safer mix someone would recommend?

Edited February 13, 2020 by cosjobs

[BassNBrew 11,153]

4 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

cross posted from retirement thread

 

I recently retired and my wife will next year.

Our current assets are: 

50% real property (home and rental equity)

30% 401K

5% Precious metals

5% Roth IRA (High risk/reward stock - CYDY)

15% cash (money market)

===================

My desire is to just maintain our value for the next 6-12 months (maybe longer) or maybe make a little money if things go to #### (Precious metals)

I am thinking of allocating my 401K to 1/3 "5 to go fund", 1/3 Inflation protected Treasury bonds. 1/3 Long term govt bonds

I'm also thinking of moving half of my cash to more precious metals.

With my desire simply to not lose any of my money (other than the 5% Roth gamble or precious metals if I'm chicken little), is there a safer mix someone would recommend?

I'd invest in anyone selling Mr. Ham apocalypse supplies.

[siffoin 1,235]

10 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

cross posted from retirement thread

 

I recently retired and my wife will next year.

Our current assets are: 

50% real property (home and rental equity)

30% 401K

5% Precious metals

5% Roth IRA (High risk/reward stock - CYDY)

15% cash (money market)

===================

My desire is to just maintain our value for the next 6-12 months (maybe longer) or maybe make a little money if things go to #### (Precious metals)

I am thinking of allocating my 401K to 1/3 "5 to go fund", 1/3 Inflation protected Treasury bonds. 1/3 Long term govt bonds

I'm also thinking of moving half of my cash to more precious metals.

With my desire simply to not lose any of my money (other than the 5% Roth gamble or precious metals if I'm chicken little), is there a safer mix someone would recommend?

Just so I understand - what you are mostly trying to do is protect the 30% in the 401k?

 

[Bob Sacamano 9,763]

20 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Just like when you get the wrong betting ticket at the track, keep it.

It might be God intervening on your behalf.

It's not the worst result, but I already have more aapl than I'd like. 

[Bob Sacamano 9,763]

 first world problems, I know

[General Malaise 27,230]

Retired from what?

[eoMMan 5,661]

10 minutes ago, General Malaise said:

Retired from what?

UHEM.  He just got bought out (big $$$) from Phil Ivey.

[culdeus 7,431]

52 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs in comeback from coronavirus slide

ETA:

Starting to think this Coronavirus is good for the market.

posts that won't age well

[cosjobs 15,300]

27 minutes ago, siffoin said:

Just so I understand - what you are mostly trying to do is protect the 30% in the 401k?

 

I guess.

I could not do a quick real estate  transaction to receive the bulk, so that will remain at risk (to what degree, I have no idea).

Also, I think the cash and precious metals are about as secure as I could get (?)

I am comfortable with the 5% bet on CYDY

If you think I should re-balance the cash and metals, or sell my rent house, please let me know your thoughts.

I appreciate your input

 

 

[fantasycurse42 8,316]

9 minutes ago, culdeus said:

posts that won't age well

The quote was taken from CNBC and the ETA was obviously a joke.