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48 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Yeah, I haven't pushed anything in yet. Seems like some things are actually up after being way down. That screams that instant buy on a drop where the prices end up going down past the bottom today. Just looking to see if there are any earnings coming out today. 

This twitter account stays on top of the earnings calendars

https://twitter.com/eWhispers

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Kinda want to buy NQ futures and then sell them tomorrow. Day trading is a losing game (at least for me), so I won’t do it, but I feel like I could make some easy money playing a quick relief day tomorrow then selling for Wednesday.

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2 hours ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

This twitter account stays on top of the earnings calendars

https://twitter.com/eWhispers

One stock I was watching (PANW) had earnings tonight. Based on the past few days, it would have to be blow out earnings to do well. They got hammered after hours as I figured. Cheaper now but likely down more for a bit more.

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2 hours ago, chet said:

Indexes close down ~3.5% and CYDY closes up ~0.5%.  I would not be comfortable if I were short.

I just about can't think of a move more foolish than selling short a binary micro biotech like this. 

And selling short Tesla.  And buying Tesla.

Edited by Sand
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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

I don't recall a single etf segment being as down to the market as energy is at this moment.  Didn't we used to have someone that would buy the worst segment at end of month?  

Haven't you heard?  The world switched over to hippie fart power a couple months ago.

I agree - it was already beat down and is now even more down.  Companies that have steady cash flows like EPD and MMP are looking like nice income plays.

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3 minutes ago, Sand said:

Haven't you heard?  The world switched over to hippie fart power a couple months ago.

I agree - it was already beat down and is now even more down.  Companies that have steady cash flows like EPD and MMP are looking like nice income plays.

I added to my RDS-B position locking in profits on a utility that was up today pushing it’s all time high. 

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Seriously, who was it that was pushing some sort of rotating ETF sector strategy based on the prior quarter (or month) performance.  It more or less had you cycle into the worst performing sector from the prior month with X% of the portfolio and then either hold or sell based on some criteria the previous two months sectors.  

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2 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Kinda want to buy NQ futures and then sell them tomorrow. Day trading is a losing game (at least for me), so I won’t do it, but I feel like I could make some easy money playing a quick relief day tomorrow then selling for Wednesday.

:kicksrock: such easy money

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On 2/22/2020 at 2:06 PM, chet said:

Washington Post article on how the Coronavirus kills people.  The interesting thing is that it matches the mechanism of action almost exactly that our CEO used to design design a potential treatment. Final paperwork being signed and 50-person trial slated to start soon.

@Whyatt you said you think there's no chance that Lironlimab will be part of the treatment for victims.  I, and the rest of the world, sincerely hope you're wrong--and I mean that respectfully.

Oh man, what did I get myself into sharing my opinion on this stock? I’m basically playing the “Don’t Pass” line on the craps table, being that $#@&-head!!
 

Chet there is logic behind this reasoning. What I would say to this is all the drugs which fail in the clinic have a very good to great story behind them, you just don’t hear about them. There is already an approved CCR5 drug on the market, Maraviroc, any idea if this drug is being considered for corona virus? Maraviroc Is a small molecule drug , I’d need to investigate if this makes a difference. But basically we can tell ourselves the same story about Maraviroc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-who-remdesivir/index.html 

Seems to be the current front runner, Gilead market cap was up $4 billion today in the way down market. I’ve read theIr clinical trial in progress includes hundreds of patients.

There are practical considerations as well. Could CYDY even meet the demand for the drug? No way they could charge what they are planning for HIV. 

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1 hour ago, Sand said:

I just about can't think of a move more foolish than selling short a binary micro biotech like this. 

And selling short Tesla.  And buying Tesla.

CYDY is going to move on news specific to PRO140, positive or negative. The thing is CYDY doesn’t share negative news so the only way for the stock to go is up!!

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8 hours ago, chet said:

So you think Leronlimab will be commercialized for cancer but still feel that the company is overvalued @~$650MM market cap?

CYDY acting well so far today in a weak market.  Lots of catalysts on the horizon!  Buying 10k more shares.

Here is my “Don’t Pass” line take. Taken at face value the drug is curing cancer with no side effects. Yeah this is kind of a big deal. So what are we missing? As I shared earlier Merck is spending billions on 1000+ clinical trials and printing $ as a result. If this is a cant miss type of deal, there is no reason to be farting around with their small scale trial. CYDY would have plenty of money at their disposal and they could hit this hard (with top talent) and not leave billions on the table.

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7 hours ago, [icon] said:

Anyone else feeling like this 3% drop is less than expected? 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of rebound. With that said—I don’t know if I’d change my long term outlook on things.   If the market were to correct further—it will almost certainly force the fed to act (again more fed and central bank diluting currency) and most likely lower rates again.    The financial engineering will continue and restore things. There will probably some extra volatility in the near and medium term—-but I don’t see my long term outlook changing a whole ton (with the assumption that Trump wins the election). 

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1 hour ago, Whyatt said:

CYDY is going to move on news specific to PRO140, positive or negative. The thing is CYDY doesn’t share negative news so the only way for the stock to go is up!!

CYDY is a binary stock.  If I really wanted to go that route I could head to Vegas and bet it all on black.

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7 hours ago, Whyatt said:

Oh man, what did I get myself into sharing my opinion on this stock? I’m basically playing the “Don’t Pass” line on the craps table, being that $#@&-head!!
 

Chet there is logic behind this reasoning. What I would say to this is all the drugs which fail in the clinic have a very good to great story behind them, you just don’t hear about them. There is already an approved CCR5 drug on the market, Maraviroc, any idea if this drug is being considered for corona virus? Maraviroc Is a small molecule drug , I’d need to investigate if this makes a difference. But basically we can tell ourselves the same story about Maraviroc.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/24/investing/gilead-sciences-coronavirus-who-remdesivir/index.html 

Seems to be the current front runner, Gilead market cap was up $4 billion today in the way down market. I’ve read theIr clinical trial in progress includes hundreds of patients.

There are practical considerations as well. Could CYDY even meet the demand for the drug? No way they could charge what they are planning for HIV. 

Maraviroc has nasty side effects:

Quote

 

Maraviroc Side Effects

a light-headed feeling, like you might pass out;

chest pressure, tight feeling in your neck or jaw, sweating, pain spreading to your arm or shoulder; or.

liver problems--loss of appetite, upper stomach pain, itching, dark urine, clay-colored stools, jaundice (yellowing of the skin or eyes).

 

 

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7 hours ago, Whyatt said:

To think that a virtual company like CYDY can compete with Gilead and J&J seems far fetched. Big pharma can put 100s of people on these projects. For CYDY to win their drug would need to be vastly superior in efficacy.

David vs. Goliath stories have been around forever because David wins sometimes.  Here's another story on CYDY's Coronavirus approach--I know it's likely another paid story.  They are approaching treatment from a different angle than Gilead.  Below is the Washington Post's take on how the virus kills and then CYDY's reasoning as to why Lironlimab may be an effective treatment.

Quote

 

Washington Post

“Experts hypothesize that the difference between a lethal infection and one that feels like a bad cold probably hinges on the interaction between the virus and a person’s immune system.”

“What you get is the initial damage and rush of inflammatory cells, but the damage is so extensive that the body’s immune response is completely overwhelmed — which causes even more immune response, more immune cells and more damage,” 

Bruce Patterson:

“Leronlimab enhances the innate and cellular immune response by inhibiting Treg cells which turn off the immune system. In addition, CCL5-CCR5 is one of the pathways that controls the massive migration of immune cells to sites of inflammation. Last, leronlimab reprograms macrophages. Taken together all of these effects don’t target the virus but it hopefully can mitigate the severe damage caused by the resulting cytokine storm.”

 

 

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17 hours ago, Walking Boot said:

 

I've been thinking about this and all those FIRE people a lot.

I've been thinking about this comment and figured I'd chime in.

I get shadenfreude, and share your sentiment when discussing MMM-disciple early-30s millenials planning a 50 year retirement on a 40k budget.  However when I read the specific term "FIRE" I think of the folks on the early-retirement.org forum.  The typical person there is fully cognizent of sequence-of-return risk, factoring in inflation, using historical rates of return for their models vice the last 10 year bull market, etc.  Most of them are talking about retiring in their 50s, not 30s, and have their heads screwed on straight.  One strong thread of current sentiment regarding the COVID outbreak from those that are nearing FIRE is that it represents a good test of future financial plans and assumptions, from which they hope to learn and to use to reduce risk going forward.  What have I missed?  What is my real level of tolerance for risk and uncertainty.  They are data-driven and tend to be on the whole cautious rather than optimistic.  Or at least, that is the dominant mindset.

 

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2 hours ago, [icon] said:

Details? 

Might get some reprieve this morning 

Shorted 200 @ $44

Markets dipped and I shorted 100 @ $48

All hell broke loose and attempting to raise my price point, shorted 100 @ $58

markets fell off even more where tvix was holding at $64. Yikes. ...and I've tied up loads of $$$ in this carp.

Never expected a $20 jump. Was hoping for a reprieve today but looks like I might be sitting on this stuff for several months while markets recover.

Not super concerned as tvix always comes back down (history shows?). But I am disappointed that this ties up my play money for the foreseeable future.

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17 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Kinda want to buy NQ futures and then sell them tomorrow. Day trading is a losing game (at least for me), so I won’t do it, but I feel like I could make some easy money playing a quick relief day tomorrow then selling for Wednesday.

And that my friends is why I don't day trade. They did go up pretty decently last night, but that seems behind us. 

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1 hour ago, Bossman said:

Shorted 200 @ $44

Markets dipped and I shorted 100 @ $48

All hell broke loose and attempting to raise my price point, shorted 100 @ $58

markets fell off even more where tvix was holding at $64. Yikes. ...and I've tied up loads of $$$ in this carp.

Never expected a $20 jump. Was hoping for a reprieve today but looks like I might be sitting on this stuff for several months while markets recover.

Not super concerned as tvix always comes back down (history shows?). But I am disappointed that this ties up my play money for the foreseeable future.

What type of interest to borrow those? I'd assume a big number.

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Just now, skycriesmary said:

So tempting not to buy in at these levels, which for XOM haven't been seen for 15 years. That being said, man is that chart ugly. Feels like I'd be trying to catch a falling knife. 

I can't disagree. I am not taking full positions. But we started the nibble yesterday.  It is just so oversold. But this is for someone who wants a great dividend and has years to hold it and not worry about short term volatility. Oil stocks are acting as if every single person is buying electric cars and fossil fuels are going to be gone in 5 years. 

Absolute stupid thinking and a massive overreaction to reality. 

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1 minute ago, Todem said:

I can't disagree. I am not taking full positions. But we started the nibble yesterday.  It is just so oversold. But this is for someone who wants a great dividend and has years to hold it and not worry about short term volatility. Oil stocks are acting as if every single person is buying electric cars and fossil fuels are going to be gone in 5 years. 

Absolute stupid thinking and a massive overreaction to reality. 

Yeah, I agree with that for sure. I'd just rather not watch another year's worth of dividend's get eaten up with a falling stock price after I buy. That being said, if in for the long term...I think if it approached $52-$53, I'd jump in. 

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3 minutes ago, Todem said:

I can't disagree. I am not taking full positions. But we started the nibble yesterday.  It is just so oversold. But this is for someone who wants a great dividend and has years to hold it and not worry about short term volatility. Oil stocks are acting as if every single person is buying electric cars and fossil fuels are going to be gone in 5 years. 

Absolute stupid thinking and a massive overreaction to reality. 

At some point you have to look at the reserves and costs to extract such reserves.  It's not as simple as just everyone quits driving F150s.  

If your extract costs are 50-60bb all your back end CapEx are looking at negative ROI.  

All the gas plays and shale plays they have are completing super high and prices aren't running to meet them, mid-stream costs are skyrocketing too.  Can't even hire a sand truck driver for less than what a vegas stripper wants.  

big picture, focus on it.

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2 minutes ago, culdeus said:

At some point you have to look at the reserves and costs to extract such reserves.  It's not as simple as just everyone quits driving F150s.  

If your extract costs are 50-60bb all your back end CapEx are looking at negative ROI.  

All the gas plays and shale plays they have are completing super high and prices aren't running to meet them, mid-stream costs are skyrocketing too.  Can't even hire a sand truck driver for less than what a vegas stripper wants.  

big picture, focus on it.

Interesting. 

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I mean when you have XOM paying the same dividend as a pure play like ( https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sbr/ ) it's dangerous.

SBR doesn't do much exploration.  They just pull the crap out and sell it, their costs are simply whatever their mobility costs are.  All the equity component is for all intents a depletion contract in a well.  It's not healthy to see XOM approaching those dividend levels, it implies they are out of ideas and are just extracting.

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4 hours ago, Bossman said:

Shorted 200 @ $44

Markets dipped and I shorted 100 @ $48

All hell broke loose and attempting to raise my price point, shorted 100 @ $58

markets fell off even more where tvix was holding at $64. Yikes. ...and I've tied up loads of $$$ in this carp.

Never expected a $20 jump. Was hoping for a reprieve today but looks like I might be sitting on this stuff for several months while markets recover.

Not super concerned as tvix always comes back down (history shows?). But I am disappointed that this ties up my play money for the foreseeable future.

Quickly down $14k and growing fast.

This might not stop anytime soon.

 

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39 minutes ago, matuski said:

Do you see the same in XLE (index fund)?

Check out PEO instead of that index ETF. Better yield, actively managed closed end fund selling at a big discount relative to it's NAV (Net Asset Value). You will own all the big oil players in that fund. 300 basis point out performance so far on the down side this year. That is why I like active management compared to passive indexing. Markets like this is why you pay someone to manage a portfolio. 

Edited by Todem
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21 hours ago, stbugs said:

Yeah, I haven't pushed anything in yet. Seems like some things are actually up after being way down. That screams that instant buy on a drop where the prices end up going down past the bottom today. Just looking to see if there are any earnings coming out today. 

Acting kind of like I expected although surprised that the green day got wiped out so quickly. I was expecting a good day and then some more bad. 

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10 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Acting kind of like I expected although surprised that the green day got wiped out so quickly. I was expecting a good day and then some more bad. 

Same. Thought dead cat bounce today. Maybe a bounce tomorrow as this hit a support level at 3126.25.

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