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1 minute ago, siffoin said:

pop......pop....pop...pop..pop.poppopopopopopopopopopop.  We're back inside the long term channel.

Took all of two days for 1,800 points. Up the stairs, out the window. 

Curious where your charts show fair value for the 3 major indexes?

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10 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Took all of two days for 1,800 points. Up the stairs, out the window. 

Curious where your charts show fair value for the 3 major indexes?

 

I mean with all due respect to everyone resistance levels are not well modeled to idiots eating bat soup.

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Just now, culdeus said:

How do you possibly extract that in a black swan situation? The fair value is likely where we were two days ago.  

 

He stated his charts showed overvalued as ever a few days ago, I'm curious where fair value was. He used that to base his GYPR theory... It appears accurate, so I'm curious where fair value was. 

 

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And for the life of me, I cannot figure out how the Kospi Index isn’t down more... Isn’t it already full blown Covid 19 there already? I’d expect more of a collapse. Since cases started exploding, it’s only down 5.5%, that doesn’t make sense to me.

ETA:

Good read on how they’re handing in comparison to China; https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/world/asia/daegu-south-korea-coronavirus.html

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21 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

And for the life of me, I cannot figure out how the Kospi Index isn’t down more... Isn’t it already full blown Covid 19 there already? I’d expect more of a collapse. Since cases started exploding, it’s only down 5.5%, that doesn’t make sense to me.

ETA:

Good read on how they’re handing in comparison to China; https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/world/asia/daegu-south-korea-coronavirus.html

It's not really full blown.  More like a couple very isolated sects got a super spreader.  Korea has their #### together.  

 

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5 minutes ago, culdeus said:

It's not really full blown.  More like a couple very isolated sects got a super spreader.  Korea has their #### together.  

 

They have almost 1k cases. If it is as contagious as I’ve read, imo that’s the beginning of an outbreak.

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3 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

@siffoin no, not dumb luck. Possibly the best call I’ve seen in the history of this forum. I’m highly highly engaged after such an amazing call; please tell me where your charts show the indexes fair value.

That's an over the top compliment, but thanks.  I did post targets for fair value....just search back.  It's around $SPY $280-90ish.  It wont get there in a straight line drop.  Ups and downs along the way...and it might not hit fair value.  

Charts don't lie.  The call was obvious.  This decline was going to happen...the reason for which we label it was unknown.  I'm glad some of u were able to protect your profits.  Investing is emotional.  For those of us who did protect, we have the freedom of mind to poach value and find opportunity when it presents.

Good luck to us all.

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5 hours ago, siffoin said:

That's an over the top compliment, but thanks.  I did post targets for fair value....just search back.  It's around $SPY $280-90ish.  It wont get there in a straight line drop.  Ups and downs along the way...and it might not hit fair value.  

Charts don't lie.  The call was obvious.  This decline was going to happen...the reason for which we label it was unknown.  I'm glad some of u were able to protect your profits.  Investing is emotional.  For those of us who did protect, we have the freedom of mind to poach value and find opportunity when it presents.

Good luck to us all.

Thanks for sharing. :banned: 

So we are looking at a potential ~10% additional dip to get in range by your charts.

I do agree a non-linear dip is most likely, and guessing we a bounce sometime this week (lots of folks are seeing value and buying on the way down). 

I got ~70% liquid a couple weeks back. Not sure if I'm ready to get back in but another 3% drop and it'll be hard to not start easing back in. I wholeheartedly welcome any theories on how to handle re-entry. 
 

Pre-Market Indexes sitting down .5 to .75% right now. 

Going to be and interesting summer...  

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34 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Trump jawboning the market scheduled for 6pm today. 

Can we try to guess exact quotes from this press conference? 

Let’s be honest, the guy has no idea what Covid 19 is, and this press conference is really to address the stock market. If he had half a brain, he’d let it run its course, and mount a natural comeback in a few months, and this correction would be forgotten about by the election.

Trump quote from the presser:

“The fake news is trying to panic the market. This is the greatest economy we’ve ever seen and you should buy the dip. This virus is no more dangerous than the flu or a common cold.”

I expect something along those lines to be mumbled at some point. 

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Welp, there goes the rally. Still up a little on the day, but the downward pressure is there even on the bounces. Reminds me of last Octoberish. I know it would hit my stocks, but wouldn't mind another buying opportunity closer to that since I am definitely long term.

Still shocked that LK is holding it's own considering it's really exposed to China being basically a Chinese company. Weird that it's held up better than some of my little to no China exposure stocks that have been putting up great sales/earnings.

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1 minute ago, GROOT said:

I have the feeling it's going down again

Agreed. I guess I could have sold out of my IRA. All my stocks were up a bunch and less than a year since purchased, so I'll ride those out since I'd get whacked at income tax level (really bad since my wife works as well). I'd lose almost 20-25% extra just to taxes and I'd likely miss the bottom so not worth it.

Got a nice chunk of cash though so looking forward to using that. Carrying cash is not a bad thing if you use it at big dips.

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4 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Can we try to guess exact quotes from this press conference? 

Let’s be honest, the guy has no idea what Covid 19 is, and this press conference is really to address the stock market. If he had half a brain, he’d let it run its course, and mount a natural comeback in a few months, and this correction would be forgotten about by the election.

Trump quote from the presser:

“The fake news is trying to panic the market. This is the greatest economy we’ve ever seen and you should buy the dip. This virus is no more dangerous than the flu or a common cold.”

I expect something along those lines to be mumbled at some point. 

I'm thinking what use to work so well for him (moving the markets) is not going to pan out this time. Maybe for a day but I can't imagine it sustaining. This is going to take a while to play out.

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Agreed. I guess I could have sold out of my IRA. All my stocks were up a bunch and less than a year since purchased, so I'll ride those out since I'd get whacked at income tax level (really bad since my wife works as well). I'd lose almost 20-25% extra just to taxes and I'd likely miss the bottom so not worth it.

Got a nice chunk of cash though so looking forward to using that. Carrying cash is not a bad thing if you use it at big dips.

This sucks but only down like 3-4% for the year. When this clears up in the summer we’ll rally again. Another 30% year not looking likely though :sadbanana:

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9 minutes ago, lod001 said:

I'm thinking what use to work so well for him (moving the markets) is not going to pan out this time. Maybe for a day but I can't imagine it sustaining. This is going to take a while to play out.

Nobody in here is discussing it, but I think this can be a watershed moment for his presidency. If he downplays this and tries to jawbone the market, and it turns into a pandemic, he's done.

Surprised there is no discussion of this.

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4 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Nobody in here is discussing it, but I think this can be a watershed moment for his presidency. If he downplays this and tries to jawbone the market, and it turns into a pandemic, he's done.

Surprised there is no discussion of this.

I think most think that he beats Bernie just about no matter what.  If Biden had all his marbles and his stupid kid wasn't a grifter, or Amy got the nom it'd be a different story.  But Bernie's a no go for a lot of folks it seems.

Anyway, the market's been on a great run.  I won't hold a little downturn against it or the president. 

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22 minutes ago, Capella said:

This sucks but only down like 3-4% for the year. When this clears up in the summer we’ll rally again. Another 30% year not looking likely though :sadbanana:

Very true. That said, my wife and I get our bonuses (she should get more AMZN) soon so having the market a bit lower could help with the number of shares. Also, while I’m speeding towards 50, still plenty of DCA and cash to invest before I get to say FU to work. Getting more for less is fine with me. Read an interesting article about how a good chunk of cash on the side actually improves returns based on 20% downturns that happen often. Sort of counterintuitive to the put all money in Index funds and hold little cash. It made sense if you didn’t sit on the cash and used it during downswings. It did mention not trying to wait for huge (say 2008ish) downswings which are much more rare. I’m old enough to remember the decade of the 2000s where stocks went sideways for a long time. I wish I was fiscally as solid back then because once it got going all the DCAing at those low prices made you a lot of money. Damn kids and stay at home mom! I’d be retired by now. Lol.

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21 hours ago, Sand said:

Disney worth a lot less now.  IMO.

Looking like it might by a nice opportunity soon. I wouldn’t jump in yet because I just see more downside right now and barring some sort of vaccine shock there isn’t going to be news on the DIS front to turn things around.

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4 hours ago, The Lost One said:

What do you guys think about investing in IIPR - Innovative Industrial Properties? 

I own it, but it wasn't far above the 52 week low when I bought. The biggest question about them is when will the government change marijuana laws and will they be able to adapt once that happens? I probably won't wait around to find out. Unless I see something that convinces me otherwise, that's probably the point at which I sell, right or wrong.

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6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Looking like it might by a nice opportunity soon. I wouldn’t jump in yet because I just see more downside right now and barring some sort of vaccine shock there isn’t going to be news on the DIS front to turn things around.

DIS is one of my favorite holdings. My only fear here is that we could be on the cusp of a pandemic, and their business would be absolutely gutted for 6-12 months (theme parks, movies both absolutely slaughtered). In that scenario, I guess I'd be happy to add though. 

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Just now, The Lost One said:

So, I'm gathering in your opinion, the big spike they've already had is enough for you to not gamble on moving forward?

That's a firm, "I have no idea".

I'm glad I got in when I did. They might sign enough leases before laws are changed that they're worth a lot more than they are now. Hell, it could be 5 years before we even have to consider it. They might find ways to adapt to the changing landscape. Weed company stigma is likely to outlive banking restrictions. Might enough growers prefer selling their land and leasing it back even after they can acquire capital via more traditional means? Sure. Those transactions certainly aren't limited to the mj business today. 

I'm just saying if the government passed something 1-1-21, barring some change between now and then that sways me, I probably sell 1-1-21 and wait at least a quarter or so to see how things shake out before deciding if I want back in or am out for an extended period of time. But that was just my plan of attack when I bought. Things change. It could be worth twice what it is today before anything happens, and I may not want to take the cap gains hit. Maybe that's the point I donate it to the church to avoid the cap gains and hopefully get a little entertainment in the process.

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30 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

DIS is one of my favorite holdings. My only fear here is that we could be on the cusp of a pandemic, and their business would be absolutely gutted for 6-12 months (theme parks, movies both absolutely slaughtered). In that scenario, I guess I'd be happy to add though. 

I really like to look long term. The funny thing is that a bad quarter right now should have no impact on their earnings in 2-3 years. Well at least as long as we aren’t entering the Black Plague.

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

mis-timed the bottom yesterday dammit.....bought too soon

Should have read my posts! I didn’t buy the last couple days. I was tempted a few times but I think it’ll be bad for a time and no quick bounces. Just not sure how long but I’ve got some prices where I wished I bought in so if a stock I like hits that, just buy and don’t worry for a while. I have a feeling I’ll see those targets hit or come close enough soon enough. 

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29 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I really like to look long term. The funny thing is that a bad quarter right now should have no impact on their earnings in 2-3 years. Well at least as long as we aren’t entering the Black Plague.

I do too, especially with a few symbols I plan on passing to my kids, DIS is one of them. That's also why I've been buying gold, printing is coming, but it might not be for years.

My fear is if this virus spreads, DIS will be one of the hardest hit stocks; they're as susceptible to tourism and large gatherings as almost any company I can think of. I don't want to reach out and buy more for $123, then watch it get slapped by a 50% fall...

If we put Covid 19 behind us, DIS is my first buy. Not that I think it has the most upside out of everything on my list, I simply feel it is extremely safe for LT gains stretching decades. 

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43 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I gotta be honest, the fear in the market is giving me fear IRL. 

Also, MSFT just acknowledged they will miss their guidance due to the coronavirus. 

Time for another leg down? I see they already gave up today's gains. This drain could now hit the 200 day MA across all the indices.

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not here much but love reading thoughts from those here who have a pretty good handle on stocks & the overall market.  just wondering whether bad form to post the number of shares I bought.   I don't want to be ---hey LOOK at me.

Thanks.

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13 minutes ago, shadrap said:

bought 138 shares of AAPL today.  Been wanting a piece & today looks as good as any as it's a long term hold for me.  probably could have bought lower but no crystal ball here.

I was thinking about it but couldn't pull the trigger.

Post what you feel comfortable with.  It's all good. :thumbup:

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