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Stock Thread (26 Viewers)

Otis said:
I’m still 25% in cash and waiting for the right time to jump in with it. Feels like I should still be waiting. 
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I have big chunk of cash I want to invest.  I planned to roll it out over about six months with a set amount to invest at end of each month since timing the market is impossible.  Did buy some on Monday and Tuesday during those big drops.  Will likely put in the rest of my monthly spend on Friday.  Then wait until last two weeks in March to consider further purchases.  You can't really time the market and have way to much cash right now so wanted to put some of it to work.  

 
NajehHejan said:
Contemplating moving everything including 401K to cash. Coca Cola is warning of a Diet Coke shortage because they can't get the sweetener from China. #### is real and ain't getting better. 
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Yeahhhhhhh me too. Afraid as always of missing the comeback but this is ugly. 

 
siffoin said:
gosh darnit people.  I feel like the ####### Dark Sky App...telling you when it's going to rain, how much it's going to rain and when the rain is likely to stop.  And y'all are like..."no one can predict the weather" or " I'm not going to look outside but it's been raining so I guess right now it's sunny"
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You just let us know when your official app is available, I'll download. That being said, I'm waiting for another 5-7% drop before putting any $ to work, even with quite a few things starting to look tempting now.

 
siffoin said:
gosh darnit people.  I feel like the ####### Dark Sky App...telling you when it's going to rain, how much it's going to rain and when the rain is likely to stop.  And y'all are like..."no one can predict the weather" or " I'm not going to look outside but it's been raining so I guess right now it's sunny"
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The pace of this decline has been intense, what type of impact does such a powerful move in such a short TF have on your charts (if any)?

 
I'm out.

Virus has made it's way here (US). How many persons did the woman from CA infect before she was quarantined?

Those people are infecting their families and co-workers, taking it to school etc. Supply chains are shutting down. 

There is no stopping this. ... at least no time soon anyway.

Portfolio is already down 10% from last week. I can't sit and watch another 10% bleed off.

Covered my TVIX shorts today and went long in desperation to recoup some losses. (never lost so much $$ in such a short span)

Sold all of my AMZN, GOOGL, APPL, MSFT, and my Vanguard ETF's and Index funds.

Holding health care and bio-tech stuff ... and leaving my IRA alone.

 
Bossman said:
I'm out.

Virus has made it's way here (US). How many persons did the woman from CA infect before she was quarantined?

Those people are infecting their families and co-workers, taking it to school etc. Supply chains are shutting down. 

There is no stopping this. ... at least no time soon anyway.

Portfolio is already down 10% from last week. I can't sit and watch another 10% bleed off.

Covered my TVIX shorts today and went long in desperation to recoup some losses. (never lost so much $$ in such a short span)

Sold all of my AMZN, GOOGL, APPL, MSFT, and my Vanguard ETF's and Index funds.

Holding health care and bio-tech stuff ... and leaving my IRA alone.
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Sorry about the TVIX loss. A good portion of us in here have learned the same lesson, that ticker is simply poison. 

 
Also, Goldman just cut their 2020 forecast to 0% (which was pretty crazy to see). 2019 was simply P/E expansion on hopes of future growth, now we're looking at around 0% growth... 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Also, Goldman just cut their 2020 forecast to 0% (which was pretty crazy to see). 2019 was simply P/E expansion on hopes of future growth, now we're looking at around 0% growth... 
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That's just corporate earnings growth and it assumes coronavirus spreads all over really fast. I also remember when they insisted on $200 a barrel oil so grain of salt and all that.

 
McBokonon said:
That's just corporate earnings growth and it assumes coronavirus spreads all over really fast. I also remember when they insisted on $200 a barrel oil so grain of salt and all that.
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Until we haven more clarity, I think we're in a sell the rips environment, not buy the dips. 

Buying the dip right now (with the velocity of this move) feels like the definition of catching a falling knife. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Until we haven more clarity, I think we're in a sell the rips environment, not buy the dips. 

Buying the dip right now (with the velocity of this move) feels like the definition of catching a falling knife. 
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Yeah, I'm selling covered calls on anything that pops and buying them back when they crash back for the foreseeable future. I don't anything I don't want forever, figure I could raise a little cash in the meantime.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I kinda feel like dip buyers need to be punished before we can stabilize too... Not sure why I feel like that, just my gut. 
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I mentioned this in a post that kinda got buried in the last page—-but I know that you are more active in the markets than I.   I’d like your opinion if you didn’t mind—and I thank you in advance for your time. Here is my post from that I’m referring to. 

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/673466-stock-thread/?do=findComment&comment=22528006

My question is this in regards to the market moving forward.  Hypothetically—let’s say that our market is at an all time high—but moderately to severely stretched out in regards to value—-and an event or series of events occurred that basically shocked Asia into an economic standstill or decline.   This standstill includes the biggest contributor to global supply chains to also be effected for months and tourism to stall in areas of the world. 

This event spills into an already fairly stagnant Europe and causes many of their economies to slow down even further or even fall into recession.  However-the metrics of our market still happen to look decently strong—but at some point—we do know that the supply chain issues will impact our markets.   We also have the uncertainty of a presidential election coming up—and we all know that our markets do not generally like uncertainty.   Lastly—we don’t know if the event in this hypothetical creates a shockwave on the demand side of things (although—we can assume that future rate cuts will most likely minimize the shock on the demand side—as they dont really do much to aid in fixing supply chain issues)

The question is—-based on those parameters—what percentage would you expect our markets to drop?   For me—a lot of it has to do with how our stock market was priced before the event. I personally felt like the market at  least 5-10% overpriced before this event even happened.  I do think that the supply chain issues could cost another 5-10% as we wont know the full extent of them until the factories get back up and producing at full capacity.  The last major wild card would then be the uncertainty.  Will peoples spending habits change, what will happen with the election? ..etc.   I do think that as time progresses and these question marks get replaced with a bit more clarity—that this portion of the equation could actually lead to some gaining back of lost ground. However—the risk cannot be ignored that if the answers to these uncertainties end up being negative to the market—meaning that peoples spending habits change, we get an election result that might not be the most “pro-business”—you could see more movement to the downside.   

Effectively—at this moment we are at approximately a 9-10% drop from our all time highs.  If somebody were to give you this hypothetical—what is the percentage drop that you would expect?   If your answer is a drop that is greater than 10%—I think you wait if you have cash on the sidelines—or you move some money out of the market until it comes down to your expectations—or until things clear up until you are more comfortable with the environment.   If you think the drop should be less than 9-10%—then one could argue that this is when you go on a bit of shopping spree and cherry pick the stocks you like.   The lack of information and clarity are really going to turn our markets into a gamble. Some people will most likely lose big in this—and some will almost certainly gain big. 

 
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Pulled back to 30% exposure a little over two weeks ago.  Tempted to trickle a little in with 8% in my pocket, but I’m going to sit tight.  This ride feels like it’s just getting started. 

 
Japan was already closing in on a recession, I think this will officially tip them over. Germany too... China is impossible to speculate on, honestly who the #### knows. 

I think there are two factors at play, one is we were clearly stretched already. I posted P/E growth month by month like 10 pages back, all we did last year was expand P/E, there wasn't a ton of growth, yet we were up 30%, now all of that growth is going to get pushed further out to like 2021 or whatever (it's all bull####). 

The second, and at this point most important is the unknown. Once we have more clarity, regardless of what it is (unless Doomsday) I anticipate a rally simply on that. However, I'd expect that to be sold as 2020 is looking to turn into a pumpkin with no growth, quarantines, and who knows what else basically slaughtering the original levels of growth anticipated. 

 
stbugs said:
It’s sticking although definitely overvalued. It’s up 60% this year. SMH. I almost bought some at $95 a couple weeks ago. Should have bought it last year.

ZM doing the same. Anything related to keeping people from traveling is doing well. Everything else is getting bludgeoned. Seeing a lot of prices I like now but seems like it’s not going to stop soon.
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I bought in when the Medicare Advantage stuff started coming out. Seemed like huge potential for them. $65-ish, I think.

 
culdeus said:
This little bump up right here is a nice exit point imo.
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I agree; If you are looking to free up cash, I'd thank all of those that helped fuel those 700 points in the DJIA, and exit. Sure we can rally until the end of the day, but I can't anticipate anyone sitting around saying I need to take on extra risk heading into the weekend tomorrow. 

 
Full disclosure—this is nothing more than a random thought. What are people’s thoughts on peloton?  Its not a stock that I would touch with a ten foot pole before—-but if this thing hits the states in even a mild to moderate way—a lot of people will want to try to do as much as they can within the safety and comfort of their homes.  People that can afford them might justify the purchase to avoid going to crowded gyms where disease can easily spread.  Feels like their price is already at or below their IPO pricing. If it drops much further—it might be a good sneaky play. 

 
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jvdesigns2002 said:
Full disclosure—this is nothing more than a random thought. What are people’s thoughts on peloton?  Its not a stock that I would touch with a ten foot pole before—-but if this thing hits the states in even a mild to moderate way—a lot of people will want to try to do as much as they can within the safety and comfort of their homes.  People that can afford them might justify the purchase to avoid going to crowded gyms where disease can easily spread.  Feels like their price is already at or below their IPO pricing. If it drops much further—it might be a good sneaky play. 
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Not even with LHUCKS' money

 
TripItUp said:
yeah, not as interested in currency...I think traditional stocks a bit more direct.
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That's an ETF

https://www.proshares.com/funds/euo.html

ProShares UltraShort Euro seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the price of the euro versus the U.S. dollar.

ProShares UltraShort Euro is designed for knowledgeable investors who seek to profit from the euro growing weaker relative to the U.S. dollar.

This fund is not an investment company regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not afforded its protections. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

This short ProShares ETF seeks a return that is -2x the return of its underlying benchmark (target) for a single day, as measured from one NAV calculation to the next. Due to the compounding of daily returns, ProShares' returns over periods other than one day will likely differ in amount and possibly direction from the target return for the same period. These effects may be more pronounced in funds with larger or inverse multiples and in funds with volatile benchmarks. Investors should monitor their holdings as frequently as daily. For more on risks, please read the prospectus.
 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Full disclosure—this is nothing more than a random thought. What are people’s thoughts on peloton?  Its not a stock that I would touch with a ten foot pole before—-but if this thing hits the states in even a mild to moderate way—a lot of people will want to try to do as much as they can within the safety and comfort of their homes.  People that can afford them might justify the purchase to avoid going to crowded gyms where disease can easily spread.  Feels like their price is already at or below their IPO pricing. If it drops much further—it might be a good sneaky play. 
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I saw NFLX was up before, assumed it was a similar stay at home mindset driving it. 

 
Bob Sacamano said:
And I'm not saying you're wrong. I just can't see myself betting on that company with the little I know. 
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Honestly—I don’t know a ton about it too—but this is why the thought came into my mind. As @fantasycurse42 mentioned—it seems as though Netflix has actually been positive in this market because of the potential for this “stay at home” dynamic that might come out of this virus.  More and more reports are indicating that this thing is already in the states.

Secondly—I have a co-worker that’s only 24 years old.  Her husband and her are workout warriors—and while they do decently well—they certainly aren’t swimming in riches. (They live in a relatively small one bedroom apartment, they both have car payments—they live a comfortable life—but they don’t have what anybody would consider a high net worth).   Even with their modest lifestyle—they ended up buying a peloton a few weeks ago.  Yesterday she said that both her and her husband were planning on cancelling their gym memberships until things become more clear with Coronavirus.   She basically said that between the monthly payment for the actual machine, and the monthly subscription costs—that using the peloton is actually cheaper than them keeping their gym memberships.  I just wonder if a large number of people that do go to gyms and enjoy that group feel of working out—but prefer to do it in safety of their homes—might come to the same decision.  I certainly would need to do some more research on it—but that’s basically the foundation of my thought process.  

 
[icon] said:
Thanks for sharing. :banned:  

So we are looking at a potential ~10% additional dip to get in range by your charts.

I do agree a non-linear dip is most likely, and guessing we a bounce sometime this week (lots of folks are seeing value and buying on the way down). 

I got ~70% liquid a couple weeks back. Not sure if I'm ready to get back in but another 3% drop and it'll be hard to not start easing back in. I wholeheartedly welcome any theories on how to handle re-entry. 
 

Pre-Market Indexes sitting down .5 to .75% right now. 

Going to be and interesting summer...  
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Still waiting... 

In my total amateur "don't know #### more than a hunch" opinion I wouldn't be shocked if the down pushed down past 24k before this is said and done. 

Thinking I may start easing a bit back in (~20%) if we get below 26k

Could be totally wrong. 

 
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A little note on the indexes today. Approximations of course.

S&P - maxed out at 2.82% above today's bottom.

NAZ - maxed out at 3.21% above today's bottom.

R2K - maxed out at 3.73% above today's bottom. I think this could be a good play off the bottom. R2K has taken such a beating and always does. It did not fall the furthest AND rose the fastest.

We are holding at the 200 day MA for the S&P.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Honestly—I don’t know a ton about it too—but this is why the thought came into my mind. As @fantasycurse42 mentioned—it seems as though Netflix has actually been positive in this market because of the potential for this “stay at home” dynamic that might come out of this virus.  More and more reports are indicating that this thing is already in the states.

Secondly—I have a co-worker that’s only 24 years old.  Her husband and her are workout warriors—and while they do decently well—they certainly aren’t swimming in riches. (They live in a relatively small one bedroom apartment, they both have car payments—they live a comfortable life—but they don’t have what anybody would consider a high net worth).   Even with their modest lifestyle—they ended up buying a peloton a few weeks ago.  Yesterday she said that both her and her husband were planning on cancelling their gym memberships until things become more clear with Coronavirus.   She basically said that between the monthly payment for the actual machine, and the monthly subscription costs—that using the peloton is actually cheaper than them keeping their gym memberships.  I just wonder if a large number of people that do go to gyms and enjoy that group feel of working out—but prefer to do it in safety of their homes—might come to the same decision.  I certainly would need to do some more research on it—but that’s basically the foundation of my thought process.  
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Where are they made?  

Also, if there was major event in the US and people had to stay home, would their first thought be to go order an expensive bike?

I think I like the Netflix play better.

And CLX.  Lots of CLX.

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Full disclosure—this is nothing more than a random thought. What are people’s thoughts on peloton?  Its not a stock that I would touch with a ten foot pole before—-but if this thing hits the states in even a mild to moderate way—a lot of people will want to try to do as much as they can within the safety and comfort of their homes.  People that can afford them might justify the purchase to avoid going to crowded gyms where disease can easily spread.  Feels like their price is already at or below their IPO pricing. If it drops much further—it might be a good sneaky play. 
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Since that stock is actually up over the last 5 days people already thought about that.  

 
Just cashed out some of my winners( not winning as much as when i sold though).   about 12% cash.  Kicking myself for not doing this earlier.    Media is all doom and gloom, whether they are right or not, folks are panicking.    Good luck to all with however you play this.

 
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