Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
It seemed like they got pushed into investigating when Markey sent a letter. So, I would be surprised if there is major damage done. But I don't know the company beyond the headlines and screaming matches.
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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
commoncents
Footballguy
Take a second look. From the article I linked.
"The share price appreciated when the advisory panel of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration
FDA) voted in favor of the approval of the company’s diabetes candidate, Afrezza."Walgreens has been kicking ###. I think it'd be smart to jump on board, just a friendly heads up.
I bought a medley of weed stocks today, my own version of an "index fund" I guess.
PHOT
MJNA
GRNH
ERBB
I think HEMP has officially burnt out like a supernova. I suppose something legitimately lucrative would have to come from something in the HEMP industry but I think the HEMP industry is going to take longer to develop than the actual weed industry.
One of the above companies nearly tripled their revenues compared to last year, so that's somewhat of a security. I think that these stocks will be up and down but overall UP by the end of the year. When Florida legalizes medicinally, these guys suddenly have more sales. That's my logic at least, find companies that are effectively selling to Colorado and Washington and look for them to grow as more states legalize. Sometimes you'll catch a flash in a pan like HEMP a few months ago and ERBB recently.
If anything, it's a lottery ticket. But I love how volatile these stocks are, it makes investing in them fun.
I almost pulled the trigger on some Facebook stock (5 shares, whoopie) but ended up going with the Marijuana Medley. I did a report on Facebook recently and think they're pretty set, pretty much they make all their money off advertisements and data mining. As their userbase increases, their revenues are going to continue to increase. Facebook's userbase grows every year. Until Facebook has issues retaining users, Facebook remains a very safe investment.
I bought a medley of weed stocks today, my own version of an "index fund" I guess.
PHOT
MJNA
GRNH
ERBB
I think HEMP has officially burnt out like a supernova. I suppose something legitimately lucrative would have to come from something in the HEMP industry but I think the HEMP industry is going to take longer to develop than the actual weed industry.
One of the above companies nearly tripled their revenues compared to last year, so that's somewhat of a security. I think that these stocks will be up and down but overall UP by the end of the year. When Florida legalizes medicinally, these guys suddenly have more sales. That's my logic at least, find companies that are effectively selling to Colorado and Washington and look for them to grow as more states legalize. Sometimes you'll catch a flash in a pan like HEMP a few months ago and ERBB recently.
If anything, it's a lottery ticket. But I love how volatile these stocks are, it makes investing in them fun.
I almost pulled the trigger on some Facebook stock (5 shares, whoopie) but ended up going with the Marijuana Medley. I did a report on Facebook recently and think they're pretty set, pretty much they make all their money off advertisements and data mining. As their userbase increases, their revenues are going to continue to increase. Facebook's userbase grows every year. Until Facebook has issues retaining users, Facebook remains a very safe investment.
I'll let the marijuana ride for about a month and then evaluate whether or not I want to switch it into Facebook or T-Mobile stock. Also, who doesn't love that new Google price of 572? I want me one of those.
If you've got a large lump sum of money, you'd be foolish not to pour the majority into Google. Safest investment you could possible imagine and you never know when they're going to start cranking the dial again.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Hate to say this, but I agree with Eminence in terms of Google. Although I don't know if he understands a split with his love of the price I don't understand why any consumer would by the non voting shares though. Google is going to take over the world. In 30 years they'll have their hands in every vertical across the globe. Like Amazon too, if they fall below $300 I become a long term investor. I'm sick of checking tickers all day. If I owned Google and Amazon, I'd set it and forget it. Add in SAN, although I'd love to under $9 and add position to T and forget about it.
I don't understand why any consumer would by the non voting shares though. Google is going to take over the world. In 30 years they'll have their hands in every vertical across the globe. Like Amazon too, if they fall below $300 I become a long term investor. I'm sick of checking tickers all day. If I owned Google and Amazon, I'd set it and forget it. Add in SAN, although I'd love to under $9 and add position to T and forget about it.
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Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I sold my SAN when it started getting hit on EM exposure because the dividend is a pain in the neck.You have to choose among three ways to receive it: (1) More shares (default), (2) cash after they deduct 21% withholding tax and a tiny fee, or (3) they proceeds of the rights they sell for you. I set up a standing selection to avoid having to call Schwab every three months, but still kept getting the notice to choose from SAN so ended up calling again just to be sure. Thought about buying back as a trade after the pullback, but let it go. Cramer just put a 12-13 target on it.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I saw the announcement yesterday and it was up 4%. I see that it gave all that back and then some. It looks like the rest of the market is agreeing? I've owned non-voting shares before, it isn't cool. The "company" decided to take the company private at 30% discount of the then current market price and there was nothing anybody could do about it. Not sure what to do here.I'm only posting when I sell these days. However I'll make an exception on one of the trades. I bought 4 shares of GOOG at $874.96. Ball so hard.details? I am looking at aapl given the recent news that they may be buying back an insane amount number of shares.....If there is enough of a dip with general market condition, this may be a good short term entry point.Did a little buying today.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Isn't your right to vote those shares practically worthless? Page, Schmidt and Brin can do anything they want with the majority of the voting power, overriding the wishes of every other shareholder.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Yes of course. However usually there are institutional investors that can lock things up, sue etc. if things get squirrely.
siffoin
Footballguy
Re: IDRA. As far as I can tell most of you have traded this like Paul Tudor Jones. So this post is apt to be irrelevant. But here goes:
$3.80ish is a huge level of support. If that breaks (meaning a close below) it won't be good for the near term future as the next level of support is around $2.30.
Here's a real simple lesson in price support. Pull up a 6 month daily chart of $IDRA. Draw a horizontal line at $3.80...you'll see numerous times where this line is hit. That's support. Now drop that line and look for other instances where price tags the line...Hello $2.30.
If I were an odds maker...I'd put the odds of $3.80 breaking at 85%. The odds of $2.30 getting tagged at 65%. Doesn't mean it will as I have absolutely no ability to predict the future with absolute certainty, but the charts look ominous.
$3.80 IS support which is often a floor for price. So you do have that going for you.
$3.80ish is a huge level of support. If that breaks (meaning a close below) it won't be good for the near term future as the next level of support is around $2.30.
Here's a real simple lesson in price support. Pull up a 6 month daily chart of $IDRA. Draw a horizontal line at $3.80...you'll see numerous times where this line is hit. That's support. Now drop that line and look for other instances where price tags the line...Hello $2.30.
If I were an odds maker...I'd put the odds of $3.80 breaking at 85%. The odds of $2.30 getting tagged at 65%. Doesn't mean it will as I have absolutely no ability to predict the future with absolute certainty, but the charts look ominous.
$3.80 IS support which is often a floor for price. So you do have that going for you.
jamny
Footballguy
I think support is a little lower and the initial downside is a little higher but yeah, it's close to a turning point right now. See if it holds above 3.70
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Bout to cut bait on this one... What a ####### disaster...
Any thoughts on playing MNKD?
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
New product... If this gets approved, and it appears more likely than not, could be a blockbuster.
culdeus
Footballguy
Yeah. See I thought they were coming up with an injection first for pumps and pens to create super fast acting insulin. I had read somewhere that the thing was gumming up pumps and causing occlusions. I thought the inhaler thing was a pipe dream.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Gambling to cover IDRA losses... Order open for 3,000 shares at $6.82. Last risky security I'm buying.
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Filled... MNKD at $6.82. Holding 3k shares.
IDRA, holding 2,000 shares, lost about $6k on that POS. Hopefully it rebounds, but with this much smaller position I don't need to worry as much.
IDRA, holding 2,000 shares, lost about $6k on that POS. Hopefully it rebounds, but with this much smaller position I don't need to worry as much.
I know you're playing a short term swing here, so I'm only speaking to the longterm blockbuster talk. Pfizer tried rolling one of these out a couple years ago and it was an abject failure. It was an incredibly unwieldy device, took lots of dr and patient training, and was pulled bc it was thought to lead to lung cancer. If Pfizer can't pull it off, I doubt these guys can.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm just gambling on the FDA approval... The panel was overwhelmingly in favor of approval... I'll sell immediately on the news.
siffoin
Footballguy
I purchased $MNKD early 2013, after I had noticed Al Mann had purchased 40m shares. This was at around $2.50. Another person from FFA has traded with me all of the following at these levels too.
We sold the initial position in Aug 2013 around $6.25 (something like that). Repurchased shares in January 2014, and through a series of buying shares outright and writing puts and collecting income from those have a cost basis around $4.60 on those shares. We also added Aug $5 puts as a downside hedge back in Feb. Max loss on $MNKD is about $1.50 per share on the positions we currently hold.
From all of the transactions in $MNKD since 2013...it can go to $0 at this point and we will have made $. So what I think about $MNKD is entirely different than what I think you should think about $MNKD.
Truth be told - I'm skeptical that you ever had a position in $IDRA or would even take one in $MNKD. (that's not disrespect- but hopeful sympathy)
The main problem with your style (imo) is that you want to take extremely high risk bets...and have very little consideration of the downside risks with regards to those bets. It is a recipe for disaster.
Let me throw this out there: Conditions of the late 90's tech bubble made traders/investors believe they were better at stock picking than they really were. I believe the same to hold true in this market. IT IS MUCH MORE DANGEROUS THAN PEOPLE BELIEVE IT TO BE AND AT SOME POINT A LOT OF THIS PAPER WEALTH IS GOING TO BE DESTROYED. When? I have absolutely no clue.
That's not to say you should avoid the market or the risks of the market. Rather it is to have a FULL understanding of ALL of the RISKS at PLAY and CREATE a PLAN to MINIMIZE the RISKS BEFORE the PLAY is initiated.
You need a RISK ADVERSE plan if you are adding to a simple sector ETF or mutual fund. But you better come in with a plan like General Patton when you have eyes towards a potential Home Run/Strike Out (ala $IDRA or $MNKD).
If I put a monkey at home plate and throw enough balls eventually he's going to hit one out of the park. When that happens the monkey thinks to himself "Dang, I'm good". In reality he's lucky.
Buy and Hope is the plan of the jungle not the plan of a general.
If everyone KNEW $MNKD was going to be $20 after FDA approval of Afrezza...then $MNKD would be priced a hell of a lot higher than it is right now. I'm pretty realistic on what my expectations are but with an un-hedged position would find it difficult to see it as a value risk v. reward play.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
siffoin
Footballguy
Your actions say otherwise.Appreciate the advice... Unfortunately above is very true
We're on the same side of the trade. I wish us luck.
Arid Filch
Footballguy
fantasycurse, you are gambling and I think you are being too aggressive. When I started trading 2 years ago, I would check the my stocks constantly, and this only fed my urge for quick profits. I have become more patient, only looking 1-2 times per week. I have held my current portfolio for months and only two of my stocks concern me enough to place stop losses. ZAGG - management seems to being draining the profits and they are losing market share so I am limiting my losses to 5%, should it drop. OFIX - they finally released revised financial records, which look lousy, but the stock rose over 30% so I want to lock in that profit.
I know next to nothing about trading. I mainly buy companies that are currently profitable and at low entry points. This has worked well for both AAPL and MSFT which I still hold. If you want to gamble I would recommend looking at ELP. It is a Brazilian utilities. I bought at around 12, maybe 6 months ago, and it has bounced between 10-14 since. There are other Brazilian companies with similarly low P/E ratios that are more popular like PBR but when I looked at the financial numbers, there must have been something that I liked about ELP. Anyway, I am a long-term investor but because of the volatility, it can make for good short day trading.
I also have 1K on AFFY but that was a lottery ticket purchase. The company could easily go bankrupt tomorrow, so I wouldn't recommend it as anything more.
I know next to nothing about trading. I mainly buy companies that are currently profitable and at low entry points. This has worked well for both AAPL and MSFT which I still hold. If you want to gamble I would recommend looking at ELP. It is a Brazilian utilities. I bought at around 12, maybe 6 months ago, and it has bounced between 10-14 since. There are other Brazilian companies with similarly low P/E ratios that are more popular like PBR but when I looked at the financial numbers, there must have been something that I liked about ELP. Anyway, I am a long-term investor but because of the volatility, it can make for good short day trading.
I also have 1K on AFFY but that was a lottery ticket purchase. The company could easily go bankrupt tomorrow, so I wouldn't recommend it as anything more.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
What a ####### disaster in biotechs...
How low do they go? I'm terrified as soon as I sell, it rebounds.
How low do they go? I'm terrified as soon as I sell, it rebounds.
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
If IBB breaks 218, I'm out. We are close to the 200 day, hopefully it finds support there.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
My library has an online subscription, so others may want to check out that possibility. I can access any time from my pc with my library card
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I see a class-action lawsuit has now been filed against Galena by investors. I held a small chunk for a few days, so I got my notice yesterday.
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
IDRA announces post close that "our stuff really works". Stock is 12% up after hours. Still a technical cluster F bear trap.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Where are we heading? Tech and Biotech are getting killed and it doesn't feel that there is an end in sight... Anyone have a list of stocks that you're interested in? A list of stocks that must be bought at certain levels if the downtrend continues?
I'm keeping an eye on FUEL - I don't know why I have put so much attention in biotech, I know nothing about it, my background is tech and I should stick to it. Here is what I can tell you about FUEL; Programmatic buying is continuing to gain huge market share and FUEL has an excellent product. When you see an ad on the computer that has a little blue triangle (usually on the top right) roll over it and the phrase ad choices pops up, these are programmatic 9 out of 10. For your own personal knowledge, keep an eye on how many of these you see, they are everywhere. Although Rocket Fuel keeps their algorithms very secretive and nobody really knows their secret sauce, after doing a ton of DD the last few days and asking operational people I know, I don't think there is anything shady behind the doors. FUEL and CRTO usually get lumped together bc the financial world doesn't differentiate the two even though they are extremely different companies. If the blood bath continues and they somehow land in the low to mid $20's, I am all in. Waiting for some of this smoke to clear, but I might start accumulating a position here. I'm hoping on a poor earnings call from CRTO this afternoon to further drag them down, but I actually expect CRTO to have decent numbers.
Outside of FUEL, I am keeping a close eye on the MOMO stocks - NFLX, TSLA, IBB, FB, TWTR, AMZN, & a few others... It feels like things are going to be very choppy this year, but I am keeping a good amount of powder ready to go.
Anyone else keeping an eye on anything in particular???
ETA: Etrade linked that their earnings would be 4/14, but just updated to 4/21.
I'm keeping an eye on FUEL - I don't know why I have put so much attention in biotech, I know nothing about it, my background is tech and I should stick to it. Here is what I can tell you about FUEL; Programmatic buying is continuing to gain huge market share and FUEL has an excellent product. When you see an ad on the computer that has a little blue triangle (usually on the top right) roll over it and the phrase ad choices pops up, these are programmatic 9 out of 10. For your own personal knowledge, keep an eye on how many of these you see, they are everywhere. Although Rocket Fuel keeps their algorithms very secretive and nobody really knows their secret sauce, after doing a ton of DD the last few days and asking operational people I know, I don't think there is anything shady behind the doors. FUEL and CRTO usually get lumped together bc the financial world doesn't differentiate the two even though they are extremely different companies. If the blood bath continues and they somehow land in the low to mid $20's, I am all in. Waiting for some of this smoke to clear, but I might start accumulating a position here. I'm hoping on a poor earnings call from CRTO this afternoon to further drag them down, but I actually expect CRTO to have decent numbers.
Outside of FUEL, I am keeping a close eye on the MOMO stocks - NFLX, TSLA, IBB, FB, TWTR, AMZN, & a few others... It feels like things are going to be very choppy this year, but I am keeping a good amount of powder ready to go.
Anyone else keeping an eye on anything in particular???
ETA: Etrade linked that their earnings would be 4/14, but just updated to 4/21.
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siffoin
Footballguy
Tagged $2.29 and bounced from there. I think this will continue to drop. Below $1.00 is in play.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The market is waiting to fall (especially the Nasdaq).
Google will prob have stellar earnings per usual and give it a temporary stay of relief, but I'm not a buyer right now.
Google will prob have stellar earnings per usual and give it a temporary stay of relief, but I'm not a buyer right now.
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I took Siff's advice and bailed in the $3.70's. I averaged down and sold a good amount on the day of positive data, so it wasn't as a bad a hit as it could've been. I'm not buying back in for a while.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Google did not impress. It feels like they are struggling with their bread and butter as traffic shifts to mobile (PPC). Clicks dropped YoY by 9% in terms of pricing, that is no bueno & I didn't anticipate that. Personally this was my biggest takeaway and they didnt provide much guidance either. I thought they'd have been working towards a solution on this & it doesn't appear they've found one. Earnings to date have been mediocre so far - With Google missing, that could be real bad for the Nasdaq & all things tech related. IBM missed too. Goldman reports in 7 hours, & the bar has been set EXTREMELY LOW for them. If they miss tomm could be real ugly.
After Googles earnings I grabbed some QID for tomm - Personally I'm hoping for a bloodbath. With that being said, look for an insane breakout tomm with everything reaching all time highs
After Googles earnings I grabbed some QID for tomm - Personally I'm hoping for a bloodbath. With that being said, look for an insane breakout tomm with everything reaching all time highs
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I've got a hot tip. Walgreens is merging with a pharmaceutical company located in the UK. They are talking about moving their HQ to the UK which would give the company a sizable tax break. My District Manager kept hinting around that this would help the stock value.
Take it for what it's worth.
Link:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014-04-15/opinion/ct-will-walgreens-move-to-switzerland-edit-0415-jm-20140415_1_tax-failure-tax-rate-tax-code
Take it for what it's worth.
Link:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2014-04-15/opinion/ct-will-walgreens-move-to-switzerland-edit-0415-jm-20140415_1_tax-failure-tax-rate-tax-code
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mquinnjr
Footballguy
Well, the article itself states Bern, Switzerland. But at any rate, shareholders like lower taxes and Switzerland would welcome Walgreen's with open arms. It's a good debate topic.
I've heard at my work that drafts of tax overhauls have been floating where the 35% corporate rate is reduced to 25%, but companies would lose their ability to deduct certain items like R&D tax credits, etc. and have all foreign income taxed at the new 25% tax rate. If that were to happen, which is catastrophically worse than the current 35% tax rate with all foreign income excluded, every large multi-national with a HQ in the US will be a ghost out of the US faster than you can blink and move to Switzerland and other places where they can negotiate the tax rate down in exchange for infrastructure and job creation like Ireland, Belgium, etc. This is all on the lawmakers, as companies will not break the law, but will do everything in their own power to avoid paying $0.01 in taxes more than they have to.
Which pharm company is Walgreens merging with? I didn't see one mentioned in the article. It did make mention of the fact that Walgreens has merged with EU retailer Boots. Would be interesting, are they trying to vertically integrate the supply chain direct from the pharma company their trying to acquire to the consumer via a uniform supply chain?
Yeah, it's Boots Alliance. Not so much a pharmaceutical company as much as the European version of Walgreens. They've purchased 45% of the company and have the option to buy the rest out. I guess owning that company in Europe gives them credence to move HQ overseas for the tax break along with upping their revenues (they'd own 11,000+ stores worldwide).
I don't know what Boots' current pharmacy supply looks like or if there's any assets or core competencies that they follow which would directly improve the profitability of current Walgreens stores. But the potential of a tax break and increased revenue is certainly something to keep an eye on. I found a better article, I'll probe my District Manager a bit more when I see him next though. Again, he seemed very bullish about the merger. They held a big meeting about it recently.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/behindthestorefront/2014/04/13/walgreen-under-intensifying-pressure-to-leave-illinois-for-tax-advantage-in-europe-ft/
mquinnjr
Footballguy
It's a good discussion point, but I don't think it's going to influence the share price very much up or down. I do think that companies need to be headquartered where it gives them the best "bang for their buck." If it turns out to be ex-US for a current US company, so be it. No real reason to have a HQ hunkered down in the US if it's costing a company billions in taxes that could be used to better the company through re-investment and better serve the shareholders.
All up to the lawmakers here at home, because the rest of the world will welcome our big businesses with the openest of arms.
.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Anyone think this run over the last week and a half will be out out of gas by next week? Sif?
Earnings have been unimpressive against very low expectations, data has been flat, yet we are nearing new highs again... It feels like the market is near its midterm ceiling.
I think I'm loving BIS & QID by the middle of next week... That means you guys should do the opposite and buy IBB & the Nasdaq Index and we are about to breakout
Earnings have been unimpressive against very low expectations, data has been flat, yet we are nearing new highs again... It feels like the market is near its midterm ceiling.
I think I'm loving BIS & QID by the middle of next week... That means you guys should do the opposite and buy IBB & the Nasdaq Index and we are about to breakout
