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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
So, if it could manage to close above $564, that would feel like the beginning of a shot at this, no? Maybe a better indicator around $572?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Does anyone follow Clovis (CLVS)? Big drop today, but no news to be found. Should be running up ahead of ASCO and last week's breakthrough drug designation.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bunch of #####. ####.DDD
ETA
Good couple of days for GOOG too. Hope I didn't miss that opportunity to buy some more.
Skylord
Footballguy
According to Cramer and some guy who studies the VIX for small caps, it will get worse before better.
culdeus
Footballguy
I'm not long much in small caps, but ffs they are absolutely the biggest dogs in my portfolios.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Last of the big-time spenders imoBought 8 more today.usheschipsallin:
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Ball.So.Hard.Last of the big-time spenders imoBought 8 more today.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Any update on monthly rotation Siff? I read your twitter, but ADRE getting hit hard today, so wanted to see if this impacted the rotation.
Another winner on weekly too - Any idea on what the parameters are before posting those live?
TIA!!
Another winner on weekly too - Any idea on what the parameters are before posting those live?
TIA!!
siffoin
Footballguy
I think $ADRE will be the top sector for next month too. But as I said a 2 days ago:
- In running the SH monthly sector rotation this morning - I think the odds are high that $ADRE will be the top sector for June
- However - nothing is confirmed until the last day of the month
- In addition- the short term 60m charts suggest that $ADRE may experience a little downside pressure
- For anyone who follows the SH Monthly Rotation Strategy. As of today the Top Sector ETF remains $ADRE. Though it looks toppy ST here.
- Stay tuned because the position for June won't confirm until tomorrow near the close
I can post the results over the weekend.
Not sure on the Weekly Rotation. $ONEQ really has low Vol. If 10 people here followed the strategy...we might have some issues getting filled properly.. I'm thinking about how to adjust.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Thanks Siff!
Arid Filch
Footballguy
Is it time to start buying gold miners?
I have ABX right now, looking to buy GG next.
I have ABX right now, looking to buy GG next.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Arid Filch
Footballguy
I'm not confident that the price of physical gold will rebound very much. Looking at historical charts, it is still relatively high. However, I believe the gold miners can increase profits even with spot prices falling. 10 years ago, gold miners were making profit with gold at $500 an ounce. Production costs have gotten out of control since then. But with all of the turmoil of the last three years, a lot of big projects have been put on hold or abandoned. I expect the gold miners to re-negotiate more favorable contracts before resuming those projects. It might take 3 years but I expect to see a double out of most gold miners. I want to diversify among a few of the bigger names.Mario Kart said:
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bought 37 shares of TNH today at 138. Currently yields 8.7% and is near a 52 week low. PE under 10. I've been following this since it was at $221 and I'm hoping this is the bottom. (Siff can slap my hand for hoping and not doing tech analysis).
Pretty decent article here.
Pretty decent article here.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I have some more dry that I want to invest so if there is a significant decline, I'll buy more.
ETA
Sucks that mortgages rates are so low, I would prefer to just pay my house off but when I can get almost 3x that rate here, I can't resist. Plus IGR just keeps going up so I don't want to buy more high even though it's a safer vehicle being an ETF. It has been a really nice winner for me.
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siffoin
Footballguy
Trend-wise there's a lot of downside pressure being exerted on TNH. My guess would be it will go lower over the next days/weeks...
You know when I'm initiating a position I'm trying to get the set up to put the odds on my side for a win as high as possible.
I like that dividend too, and will add this to my watchlist. Above $145 and I'd feel better. Heck I'd be good with a flat price and collecting the Divy...but I'm cautious here.
jason12vb
Footballguy
I know very little about agriculture, but up in Minnesota here it's hard to ignore the weather. Obviously weather plays a very large role in the agriculture business, but it makes me wonder to what extent it also plays on ag stocks. My initial reaction was, "do most ag stocks take a hit when the weather is severe"? Or Is it a counter-intuitive thing? When the weather is bad (such as last winter) and the planting seasons are late, or places like Atlanta getting ice storms, do companies like this prosper because farmers need the help?
I've been saying for a few years now that the weather is one extreme after another, new records are broken every season one way or another (heat, rain, snow, lack of snow, length of heat wave, etc)...it just makes me wonder which industries and sub-industries are affected the most? Is there always a winner where others are losing?
siffoin
Footballguy
In regards to stocks....you're best to just ignore what you think should "logically" happen.
Certainly there are some long term sectors that you can look at...agriculture and water being 2 examples...where you can be assured that there will be increasing demand in the future. You then look to find spots to buy.
In both of these sectors I think the safest play is in ETFs. $SOIL is a Global fertilizer play...$PIO is a Global water play - $PIO is in a new bull trend having consolidated for the past 3 months - though there is a smidge of resistance at $24.50.
St Louis Bob is an investor who loves the dividend...thus $TNH has a level of appeal for him and he is obviously believing that the dividend returns will at least off-set downward price pressure in the short term and long term this will be a nice winner for him. And you won't get such a nice dividend investing in the $SOIL ETF. My concern is that there is risk greater than the 12 month dividend yield. In addition...when a stock is at a 52 week low and the market is at an all-time high...there is some obvious concerns. Granted these types of concerns have been overcome pretty easily in the past few years.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
. In addition...when a stock is at a 52 week low and the market is at an all-time high...there is some obvious concerns. Granted these types of concerns have been overcome pretty easily in the past few years.
In related news IAG is now trading at an all time low. Yes even less then the bottom in 2008.
In related news IAG is now trading at an all time low. Yes even less then the bottom in 2008.
siffoin
Footballguy
We all understand that buying stocks that are at 52+ week lows when the market is at all time highs is not a good thing...right?
General Malaise
Footballguy
I just don't think there's enough demand for physical gold right now to buy up the miners. They made money at $500 because for YEARS gold was languishing below 300. A rising tide lifts all boats and you had to be all kinds of messed up stupid to be a miner during the bull market and not profit. Production costs are not going to get any better and in fact, labor and political discord in many of the gold producing regions will be a heavy burden for this industry for a long long time.
But I am staring a bunch of crappy gold miners I bought years ago that pain me every day I see my portfolio. Too stubborn to sell but not about to buy.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Hey anybody like Bismuth? 
Mario Kart
Footballguy
I'm having trouble gauging metals. I want to buy because the stocks/funds are low but I don't want my money to languish either. I'm hesitating investing in my Roth because most stocks/funds are at all time highs. I bought at highs before and not good. So, if I'm going to have my money in for a long time... where to go?I'm with Vanguard and my fall back is to reinvest in my dividend fund soon. The metal fund is low while others are high. Is metal the way to go? Thought about doing a brokerage account with Vanguard but not sure what the drawbacks are with that. Either way, I'm watching to see what metals do and if there is a 20% correction coming at some time in stocks.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I like metals that have application use, growing demand, constrained supply and a catalyst on the horizon. Gold doesn't fit that bill, IMO. And I surely wouldn't pay fees for a mutual fund to buy gold...not with all the ETFs out there. Dividend fund will at least pay you while you wait. Gold offers nothing but a hedge against hell.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
Always up for hearing suggestions from you, GB, if you have any tips in the sector
General Malaise
Footballguy
Well after recommending uranium and graphite over the years and watching both fall apart I'm fearful of recommending any metal here, but I'm very intrigued by bismuth at the moment. Eco friendly substitute for lead in all sorts of applications and apparently Europe is banning all lead based applications next year or some such. Anyhow, take a look at 5N Plus. Has had a huge run lately but is still 'cheap'...big supplier of bismuth.Always up for hearing suggestions from you, GB, if you have any tips in the sector
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
Check out GPT:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2247823-gramercy-property-trust-leaves-them-all-in-the-dust
Ticker used to be GKK (before Gramercy shed their real estate finance division (CDO nightmares) – they now just focus on net real estate leasing.
GKK is an oldie but a goodie – I believe some FFA’ers made some decent bank on them in the past – they were part of Dodds’ original 2009 stock thread. Company has been on a tear and seems even more solid now. I’m dipping my toe in the water. Siff – how’s the chart look?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2247823-gramercy-property-trust-leaves-them-all-in-the-dust
Ticker used to be GKK (before Gramercy shed their real estate finance division (CDO nightmares) – they now just focus on net real estate leasing.
GKK is an oldie but a goodie – I believe some FFA’ers made some decent bank on them in the past – they were part of Dodds’ original 2009 stock thread. Company has been on a tear and seems even more solid now. I’m dipping my toe in the water. Siff – how’s the chart look?
siffoin
Footballguy
Daily trend is Bullish (from 5/22 @ $5.50). Support in the $5.60 range and a stop around $5.25. I like the look of the chart.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
Yes - and that's exactly why I haven't bought any yet, and in turn probably why it was up 15% today.
djmich
Footballguy
Siff, for your monthly and weekly ETF strategies I know the objective is to simply somewhat...but are there ever instances where you would exit either one based on a material change up or down mid-period or does in your mind the selection process always support a full month or week holding period?
siffoin
Footballguy
By and large you wind up in trouble and second guessing when you start flip flopping and making "exceptions" to the strategy.
With that said - I guess if a person had personal reasons for closing out a position early - taking profits - or were going to be away from trading for a while the answer would be "yes". I'm confident there will be many times this summer when I'll leave early on a Friday - so exiting the weekly trade will not be 100% according to the "rules".
Both the weekly and monthly strategies will have periods of losers.
Over the past 10 years the odds of winning on the monthly strategy are about 74% on any given month. The odds of beating the $SPY on any given month are 60%. However from 2012-2014 the strategy has under-performed the $SPY by a few % pts over the course of each year. In fact I can think of no better long ETF trade than the $SPY. To me that fact is puzzling and a little troubling - and one reason why I think over the long haul the monthly rotation strategy will really shine.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Will trade at new price Monday morning. I think there is upside (unrelated to split) up to release of iphone 6.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Opinions on the Alibaba IPO? I would be surprised if it doesn't take a toll on AMZN's price.
Arid Filch
Footballguy
Why do you expect the Alibaba IPO to effect AMZN's price?
I think AMZN is overvalued and in time Alibaba could become a competitor, but there is no conflict at the moment.
Is anyone buying into the Alibaba IPO? It seems like IPOs are guaranteed money right now, but I have no experience with them and I have a personal rule of never investing in Chinese companies.
Arid Filch
Footballguy
What do you guys think about EBIX?
Either they are criminally undervalued or they are committing fraud.
There are a lot of reasons to be pessimistic. They have gone through 4 different auditors over the last decade. There are lawsuits and investigations going on. However, their fraud was supposedly "exposed" 3 years ago by an anonymous report and while it crushed their stock price, no charges came from it. The same thing happened last year. Yes, all of their foreign acquisitions are suspicious, but couldn't it be that they are simply tax cheats? That wouldn't be such a bad thing to overcome. If all of their reported numbers are legit, Ebix is worth at least $25 a share and it is trading at $13 right now.
There was 9 times normal volume traded on Wednesday, June 4, and the stock went down 15%. No news report accompanied this activity so it is suspicious. I believe the the settlement from the class action lawsuit is set to be released soon so Wednesday's action could be an indication of bad things or just a landslide of scared selling. I have seen it go both ways.
Mystery? Siff? Thoughts?
Either they are criminally undervalued or they are committing fraud.
There are a lot of reasons to be pessimistic. They have gone through 4 different auditors over the last decade. There are lawsuits and investigations going on. However, their fraud was supposedly "exposed" 3 years ago by an anonymous report and while it crushed their stock price, no charges came from it. The same thing happened last year. Yes, all of their foreign acquisitions are suspicious, but couldn't it be that they are simply tax cheats? That wouldn't be such a bad thing to overcome. If all of their reported numbers are legit, Ebix is worth at least $25 a share and it is trading at $13 right now.
There was 9 times normal volume traded on Wednesday, June 4, and the stock went down 15%. No news report accompanied this activity so it is suspicious. I believe the the settlement from the class action lawsuit is set to be released soon so Wednesday's action could be an indication of bad things or just a landslide of scared selling. I have seen it go both ways.
Mystery? Siff? Thoughts?
siffoin
Footballguy
In general when searching for new positions you are seeking to marry fundamentals WITH technicals. Ideally we want to find a company with solid fundamentals whose pricing trend supports a significant move to the upside. Fundamentals tell you what to buy. Technicals tell you when to buy it.
Supporting the fundamental-side are things like earnings, sales, growth, debt etc. What you don't want to hear are words like: "exposed"; "fraud"; "suspicious"; "questions whether the fundamentals are actually legit".
You can bet your bottom dollar that whenever a stock has over a period of days-weeks declined by more than 10%...the technical trend is bearish.
So since I know nothing about $EBIX...other than your quoting what I'd consider to be questionable fundamentals combined with a confirmed daily bearish trend. I personally would look for another stock to buy.
I'd bet that if we cobbled together 2 ETFs. One comprised of 50 stocks at highs and another comprised of 50 stocks at lows...and measure the performance over 1-3-6-12 months. We'd find the ETF of 50 stocks at highs does significantly better than the one comprised of 50 stocks at lows. I'd guess that to the avg investor the ETF of stocks at lows would also be more appealing, because they'd believe they are getting "value" in the stocks at lows. But one of my trading "laws" is: a trend is a trend until it isn't...thus the stocks at highs will likely continue higher while the stocks at lows will likely continue lower. Common investor mistakes are adding to losers vs adding to winners - in fact much of the time people (me included) sell our winners too soon.
Part of our focus towards investing should be seeking to find "the easiest way" to secure profits. It's one reason why I'm devoting a lot of time to the ETF rotation strategies.
That's not to say $EBIX won't be a winner - if you chose to invest. Rather securing a win will likely take significant effort and at least in the short term cause some mental and portfolio "suffering." Meaning: odds are in the ST you'd lose - with high odds of a significant draw-down. And odds are IF you can secure a win...that win won't be "easy".
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