caustic
Footballguy
Their big advantage is gone now - they used to be the only ones offering commission-free trades, that’s why I joined. Still a slick app, though.
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Stock Thread (33 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
WASHINGTON, April 8 (Reuters) - The economic downturn from the coronavirus outbreak in the United States will be deep and any recovery will depend on consumers being comfortable spending again, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday.
"How deep will this downturn be? How long will it last? How fast will we recover? The answer to the first question is now clear: it will be deep," Barkin said in a post on the Richmond Fed's website.
Market surges on the news.
"How deep will this downturn be? How long will it last? How fast will we recover? The answer to the first question is now clear: it will be deep," Barkin said in a post on the Richmond Fed's website.
Market surges on the news.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
I haven't had the television on today. I clicked on Yahoo Finance and thought we must have a vaccine or something. I mean we were in the SP 2700's before we even had to shut things down and people were still flying all over the country. We were at SP 2600 or so in December 2018 when the market had a pullback. Yet here we are higher today with a shuttered economy. I know that doesn't mean we were fairly valued on either of those other occasions but color me skeptical here.WASHINGTON, April 8 (Reuters) - The economic downturn from the coronavirus outbreak in the United States will be deep and any recovery will depend on consumers being comfortable spending again, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday.
"How deep will this downturn be? How long will it last? How fast will we recover? The answer to the first question is now clear: it will be deep," Barkin said in a post on the Richmond Fed's website.
Market surges on the news.
beef
Footballguy
Feel the same way. I'm down about 3% on SQQQ and tempted to just call it quits. Just seems the Fed will not let CV to drop the markets again.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Its a millennial thing. They had an app and more importantly trades were free back when the bigger brokerages were charging for all trades.
The no fee thing was great for micro trades, which was also appealing to young people who had never bought anything before.
Aside from that, never used it and never will. Its definitely has had its share of issues so why people still use it when they are building up larger balances, I have no idea.
I know nothing but I'm guessing this rally ends when they quit focusing on the C-19 and start looking a the economic damage it has caused.
RevShark is starting to waver on his prediction that the rally is fake: I'm always prepared to be wrong but if this V-shaped bounce continues for a few more days then i will be wrong.
Mancini doesn't predict, he just gives info on what the chart says. It says that the bears better defend 2780 or this flies higher which Makes revshark wrong.
Part of it or its not a bear market rally but a V recovery.....Yeah right...all is well, everyone back to work next month if you really believe that one and we start the infections all over again.
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Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Nice work. Didn't realize the question was answered but we are locked in on this one.
The Ref
Footballguy
They also had some glitches on there where it let you naked short well over any balance and margin you had early on. There was one day where if the right stock had a 5% up day Robin Hood wouldn’t have been able to cover the market impact and been instantly bankrupt. The exchanges went bonkers when they figured it out last year.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Yep, heard about that fiasco. The app also went down the day of March 1st due to what was theorized, they hadn't properly coded for the Leap Day. Not sure if that was the reason but the app was down during a big trading day and nobody could do anything. Their engineering infrastructure does seem a little janky.
Capella
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
I saw a video of some dude from reddit that took advantage of the free leverage glitch. Think he was shorting APPL, or something, and it was the wrong day to do it. Account went to zero in a hurray.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Well the major indexes are made up of the hig businesses that will swallow up the little businesses right? Even when nobody has any money, a few million are dead, and we cant leave our houses till 2021
Market on FIRE!!!!!!
Market on FIRE!!!!!!
djmich
Footballguy
Less competition for the businesses listed on exchanges? Half tongue in cheek
edit: ghostguy beat me to it
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beef
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
It seems so. At best, I don't really know how you get excited to jump in and you get sideways trading. I mean, the S&P correction in late 2018 was down more than the S&P is now. Not necessarily apples to apples since that was peak to trough in 2018 vs the 34% we just saw. But all it took to send stocks off 20% was the threat of a trade war and the Fed threatening to raise rates twice in 2019. Suppose its tough to compare market's irrational movements since obviously we rallied pretty hard in 2019. But what the market is facing is unprecedented and 19% off historical highs doesn't seem appropriate. That said, $2T in stimulus with the promise of more is unprecedented. We did what ~$800mn+ for the financial crisis where the financial world was on edge so I think the magnitude of the stimulus was perhaps underestimated by myself and bears in general.
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
It's completely illogical but I almost feel worse with the market gaining now, despite TZA being ~2% of our assets.
But I know as soon as I sell, the markets will dive.
Lol. I do feel a bit worse as well. Even though my accounts have gone on nice runs, I feel like I missed a bottom with the rest of my cash. I was hoping to see some of the stocks I liked get down to numbers we saw from 3/16 to 3/23. I’m a little surprised at being down in the 10-15% in the different accounts from the peak. It’s a little disconcerting. I figured if I got whacked that at least I would have some good 401k contributions but we (wife and I) never bought close to the bottom.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
I held and will wait another day. If I get down 10% that's usually when I buy down average or get out, and I've already bought down a few times and I don't want to get trapped.
Positive side, what I lose in my cash plays here I more than gain in TSP/401k. Doesn't help me upgrade that Fiero to a Ferrari any time soon though...
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm down more on that one but overall it's okay. Such a small amount shouldn't bother me. But that's why I didn't buy more, or touch my wife's assets.
Fwiw, instead of buying TZA for her, I bought VPU. up 26% since March 23. I may have actually hit the low on that one. While she's obviously lost money this year, it seems every thing I've done for her accounts works. Meanwhile I screw up my own IRA.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
So I have a question for those that have been doing this a long time.
Is there generally an overreaction and then immediate adjustment to major breaking news one way or the other for an otherwise stable company?
Here's some examples and then the meat of why I ask.
A few days ago TSLA announced that it was beating estimated deliveries by quite a bit. This happened after hours and in after hours trading its stock immediately shot up 90pts or about 18%. Within about 2 hours of the opening bell the following day it had given up almost all of those gains dropping about 70pts off that 90pt raise.
Today Google announced that it was banning Zoom from its workplace. Immediately within about 2 minutes ZM dropped 5pts from 118 to 113 or about 4.2% in 2 minutes. Another hour after that it had regained almost all of those losses and closed at 117.5.
Is this kind of immediately overreaction and then re-adjust a few minutes later pretty normal for companies that aren't at risk of actually going under based on that breaking news?
The reason I ask is that Costco, one of the most stable stocks in all of this, just announced their Q1 earnings and while they were up, they weren't as up as people were expecting with all the CV19 hoarding. On that news COST immediately dropped 12pts or roughly 4% in afterhours trading. So are these guys due for a quick bounce back on the opening bell tomorrow? This thing just dropped as much as it did on the days where the rest of the market was hitting circuit breakers, while posting growth amongst everyone else's record losses, and is one of the few companies that will likely be able to pick up right where they left off and won't have dismal Q2 earnings.
I was thinking about slamming some calls in right on the opening bell tomorrow and flipping them a couple hours in. Is this crazy?
Is there generally an overreaction and then immediate adjustment to major breaking news one way or the other for an otherwise stable company?
Here's some examples and then the meat of why I ask.
A few days ago TSLA announced that it was beating estimated deliveries by quite a bit. This happened after hours and in after hours trading its stock immediately shot up 90pts or about 18%. Within about 2 hours of the opening bell the following day it had given up almost all of those gains dropping about 70pts off that 90pt raise.
Today Google announced that it was banning Zoom from its workplace. Immediately within about 2 minutes ZM dropped 5pts from 118 to 113 or about 4.2% in 2 minutes. Another hour after that it had regained almost all of those losses and closed at 117.5.
Is this kind of immediately overreaction and then re-adjust a few minutes later pretty normal for companies that aren't at risk of actually going under based on that breaking news?
The reason I ask is that Costco, one of the most stable stocks in all of this, just announced their Q1 earnings and while they were up, they weren't as up as people were expecting with all the CV19 hoarding. On that news COST immediately dropped 12pts or roughly 4% in afterhours trading. So are these guys due for a quick bounce back on the opening bell tomorrow? This thing just dropped as much as it did on the days where the rest of the market was hitting circuit breakers, while posting growth amongst everyone else's record losses, and is one of the few companies that will likely be able to pick up right where they left off and won't have dismal Q2 earnings.
I was thinking about slamming some calls in right on the opening bell tomorrow and flipping them a couple hours in. Is this crazy?
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beef
Footballguy
I believe there is, but adjustments may come slower depending on the situation. Kind of in our American blood to overreact. 10 seconds reading the PFS proves that.
Big rises will sound off the shorts alarm. Significant drops will trigger the bargain hunting longs. Very common in OTC's, more so the short alarms. I'd be careful trying to play them though and only buy at levels you'll feel comfortable holding in case you don't get the opportunity for quick cash. By opening bell the price will probably already be set by the pre-market activity too. Just my
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skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
I've generally found that there are overreactions, then corrections the next day. It's a good time to take advantage of a company like Costo, which is rock solid. Even if it doesn't work out to perfection and you can't flip in a couple of hours as planned, a company like this is going to be fine no matter the conditions (as is being played out right now).
The outliers are companies like Luckin, which if you would have bought in the day after the huge drop, you'd be down about another 1/3 five days later.
What you're talking about is swing trading. Something I wish I knew much more about, in method, and practice. Takes patience, discipline, and being able to trade without emotion. All things i don't have.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Even luckin immediately dropped to $4 after the fraud news and then bounced back to $8 within about an hour from there.
Also add SBux to the watch list which just dropped 3% on its news a minute ago.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Good point about premarket, but worth nothing that TSLA only dropped about $10 pre-market after it soared on aftermarket news and then dropped another $60 after the opening bell.I believe there is, but adjustments may come slower depending on the situation. Kind of in our American blood to overreact. 10 seconds reading the PFS proves that.
Big rises will sound off the shorts alarm. Significant drops will trigger the bargain hunting longs. Very common in OTC's, more so the short alarms. I'd be careful trying to play them though and only buy at levels you'll feel comfortable holding in case you don't get the opportunity for quick cash. By opening bell the price will probably already be set by the pre-market activity too. Just my
massive short covering is my guess along with buyers thinking they got it cheap. Once short covering is over, nothing to move it higher. Anyone short before the fraud was announced immediately hit the jackpot when it opened at 4. They made their $. No reason to try and squeeze a few bucks more out of it. take the win and gift and move elsewhere.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
These things are easy to do in hindsight, much different in real time. Do you have a gameplan, or just planning on "slamming some calls in right on the opening bell tomorrow and flipping them a couple hours in"?
The Ref
Footballguy
Tomorrow will be a very interesting day. I don’t know a lot about reading charts and patterns but from what I’ve read we are in a rising wedge. The highs are getting higher but the lows are even higher In a wedge shaped range. The top of that range is at 2780 which to my understanding takes us 50% back to the highs.
This is the third knock at the top of the wedge. It’s now or never for the bulls. If it does break through we are off to 3000’s: unfortunately a rising wedge is usually a signal that a reversal is in order.
So in short if we don’t crack 2780 we would have a very good chance of breaking to the bottom of the wedge which is about 2550 and rising at time moves on and on to a retest of the lows.
get your buy orders in and get us over 2780 - or wait until we bounce off and get ready to short.
@siffoin
this seems like your wheelhouse
This is the third knock at the top of the wedge. It’s now or never for the bulls. If it does break through we are off to 3000’s: unfortunately a rising wedge is usually a signal that a reversal is in order.
So in short if we don’t crack 2780 we would have a very good chance of breaking to the bottom of the wedge which is about 2550 and rising at time moves on and on to a retest of the lows.
get your buy orders in and get us over 2780 - or wait until we bounce off and get ready to short.
@siffoin
this seems like your wheelhouse
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
sporthenry
Footballguy
It's also a three day weekend which just adds more fuel to it all. I suppose people probably don't want to be long stuff for three days but at the same time, data seems to be getting better so maybe some upside there?
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Can't wait to see how it reacts to the horrible unemployment numbers tomorrow. The market is seeing a lot of green, must be high on some good ##### right now.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
I got scared off by Zoom with the privacy concerns, waiting for my company to drop them. Sold off my Zoom.
Not sure if the Google headline is actually a big deal or not though, it could be a fringe use at Google. This is pertinent.
"It is worth noting that Google offers its own enterprise Zoom competitor called Meet as part of its G Suite offering"
The Google news is completely stupid. It’s like Coca-Cola telling their employees they can’t drink Pepsi. Google has a competing product and has for a while. I’ve used it for at least a year. I’ve had to use it for a client and honestly, it sucks balls. I do own ZM but Google is the worst. The privacy concerns don’t bother me, they’ll get through that. When their numbers show how much more they’ve grown that will be the driver, not Google or this privacy rough patch. Also, TBH this news actually makes Google look bad. The fact that they had to stop the use of a competitor in house is a bad reflection on their own competitive product.
Headline: Blow out numbers, 7.5 million more unemployed. Beats consensus of 8 million. Futures up 5%.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Excellent. Thank you. I came across this today in one of my healthcare newsletters.
Hundreds of drugs are being tested to treat COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. Below are six of the most promising treatments, according to Business Insider:
Remdesivir — Gilead's drug, already tested on other viruses, remdesivir has been a front-runner as a possible COVID-19 treatment. The World Health Organization has called it "the most promising candidate," and there are five active clinical trials testing its effectiveness against COVID-19 taking place in China, the U.S. and South Korea, according to Business Insider.
Kaletra — Kaletra is an HIV drug made by AbbVie. Although a study published March 18 in the New England Journal of Medicine said Kaletra didn't show benefits in COVID-19 patients, the WHO said it will conduct a global study on four experimental treatments, including Kaletra, according to Business Insider.
Actemra and Kevzara — Actemra, made by Roche, and Kevzara, made by Regeneron and Sanofi, are both classified as IL-6 inhibitors and may work by stopping a biological mechanism that causes overactive inflammatory responses in patients' lungs, according to Business Insider. Both drugs are being tested in late-stage clinical trials.
Convalescent plasma — Convalescent plasma is blood plasma taken from COVID-19 patients who have recovered from the disease. That plasma contains antibodies that could help sick patients and boost their immune response, according to Business Insider. So far, two trials have shown promising results.
Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine — Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are both antimalarial drugs. President Donald Trump has expressed hope for chloroquine's potential in treating COVID-19. The scientific community has not yet definitively confirmed its clinical effectiveness for this virus.
Avigan — Avigan is a flu drug made by Japan-based Fujifilm Toyama Chemical. A trial conducted in China showed Avigan helped patients recover seven days faster than patients on another antiviral drug called arbidol, and it also reduced the frequency of symptoms like coughing and fever, according to Business Insider. However, the drug is not approved in the U.S.
siffoin
Footballguy
I think this sounds very reasonable, and tracks close to what im thinking. Im a little lose with targets... meaning it can over or under shoot. In your case 2780...let's call it an ish number.
As I said the other day. I consider the LT Trend to be neutral, but leans bearish. These trends take a lot longer to unfold.
Of course time frame is important. Your thesis off those numbers and what unfolds has different meaning and potential depending on whether you are looking at a 60 minute chart, or a daily chart or a monthly chart.
https://apple.news/Aq_Fj-7UbR9ui2NaXwH8i5g
From link:
A British study released April 4 reported that 67% of early Covid-19 patients given ventilators or other advanced respiratory support died. That’s nearly double the 36% of non-Covid patients with viral pneumonia in prior years.
I would expect the survival rate of patients on ventilators would depend on age and health, among other variables.
Two things I think are worth considering:
If you can shorten the time on the ventilator, how much medical benefit is provided?
Is there a direct correlation between the therapeutic benefit of a drug and the outcome? (coming off the ventilator)
From link:
A British study released April 4 reported that 67% of early Covid-19 patients given ventilators or other advanced respiratory support died. That’s nearly double the 36% of non-Covid patients with viral pneumonia in prior years.
I would expect the survival rate of patients on ventilators would depend on age and health, among other variables.
Two things I think are worth considering:
If you can shorten the time on the ventilator, how much medical benefit is provided?
Is there a direct correlation between the therapeutic benefit of a drug and the outcome? (coming off the ventilator)
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Convalescent Plasma is the name of my Queens of the Stone Age cover band and drug needle recycling program
The Ref
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
My understanding is they don't use it internally. They essentially identified it as unapproved software on some employee computers and notified those employees it would stop functioning on their work computers (i.e., If you're going to take your work laptop home for personal use, at least don't compromise our network security with a competitor's unsecure product. Access it via a browser like a good little minion.)
identikit
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Which, imo, is entirely appropriate and doesn't make Google look bad at all, unless you think they should have better control over who has admin rights to their computers.
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
da##it. I feel like I'm refreshing this thread constantly but just ALWAYS missing these.
