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Stock Thread (6 Viewers)

AMC up 33% after hours?

Dont get me wrong, I would love for this reznivizeer stuff to work wonders, but this is out of hand.  Even if it keeps people from dying, it doesnt change how hard the economy will be hit.  The only thing it changes is how long.  That might only be a month difference maybe cause we all dang well know someone will come out with a med or a method that keeps people alive.

Things are not going to open up for quite some time yet overnight here stoNks are acting like everything opens up next week.

 
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ghostguy123 said:
AMC up 33% after hours?

Dont get me wrong, I would love for this reznivizeer stuff to work wonders, but this is out of hand.  Even if it keeps people from dying, it doesnt change how hard the economy will be hit.  The only thing it changes is how long.  That might only be a month difference maybe cause we all dang well know someone will come out with a med or a method that keeps people alive.

Things are not going to open up for quite some time yet overnight here stoNks are acting like everything opens up next week.
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Just goes to show you how big the market will pop when we finally do see the other side of this, or at least see it diminished significantly. Wouldn’t want to be on the sidelines then. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
This remdisivir stuff seems pretty dubious to me.  Apparently the guy that leaked the initial article has a history of trying to manipulate the market via well timed misleading article drops.  The other article notes some extremely severe and horrifically common side effects.
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Be careful with this interpretation. In this compassionate use trial, the patients were very sick, with the majority on ventilators. The side effects could very possibly be (I believe likely) a result of COVID-19.

The below is cut from the the original publication. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016?query=featured_home

Remdesivir appears to have a favorable clinical safety profile, as reported on the basis of experience in approximately 500 persons, including healthy volunteers and patients treated for acute Ebola virus infection,18,19 and supported by our data (on file and shared with the World Health Organization [WHO]).

 
While I'm super happy with the prospect of Remdesivir on the humanitarian side of things---(hell anything that can help keep the death toll of this virus down is a great thing)---I do worry that the markets are acting absolutely irrationally.   I haven't done any research--but my understanding is that it has done a really good job helping super sick patients recover--but do we know if it's effective in treating milder to moderate cases of covid?   I personally know 5 people in Southern California that have what would be categorized as "mild" to "moderate" cases of it--and it is absolutely kicking their butts.   One of the people I know is healthy and 17 years old--and she's literally had severe headaches, dizziness, insane night chills and insane pain in her chest/lung area for over 20 days.  She has had a chronic fever--and about 2 weeks ago--her mother got the same symptoms--and it's also kicking her butt.  

I don't think remdesivir is a vaccine that prevents the disease from spreading--and we know that this thing spreads like wildfire.  IIn regards to the markets--I'm getting worried again.  In regards to economic news and data--we had some of the worst metrics and data in history being reported--and relatively speaking--our markets barely reacted.  While I think remdesivir has potential--I just think that our markets were not processing the bad news--but they are absolutely over processing potentially good news.  The reality is--even if this drug keeps people alive--it's still a very contagious disease that knocks most people out that contract it for 2-4 weeks--and social distancing will still need to be implemented.  Don't get me wrong--I think it's great news--and I've always been bullish on our markets long term--but if the markets really go up 800+ points tomorrow on this--while only dropping 400-500pts when 5.2 million people filed for unemployment--that doesn't seem right.  With that said--if this drug brings us one step closer to conquering this virus--god bless it and god bless us all.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
AMC up 33% after hours?

Dont get me wrong, I would love for this reznivizeer stuff to work wonders, but this is out of hand.  Even if it keeps people from dying, it doesnt change how hard the economy will be hit.  The only thing it changes is how long.  That might only be a month difference maybe cause we all dang well know someone will come out with a med or a method that keeps people alive.

Things are not going to open up for quite some time yet overnight here stoNks are acting like everything opens up next week.
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While I don’t disagree with the sentiment, AMC isn’t a great company to follow at this point. It’s market cap is $250mn (well more now) and half owned by a Chinese company. So not a ton of float. The equity is acting like a call option and they announced a bond deal. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Also worth noting that none of the people in the study that just blew up the market were on a ventilator.

So "only" 2 of 125 patients in the study so far have died.  Which is probably about the normal death rate of coronavirus if we're not talking about people on a ventilator.
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From the comments section of the stat article, I haven’t verified if it’s true:

It is useful to compare like to like; the population being addressed here are those who were sick enough to be hospitalized. In the US, there were 32,186 deaths and 104,039 hospitalizations, which indicates roughly a 30% mortality rate. If the mortality rate with Remdesivir is really only 2%, that would suggest a major improvement.

As many victims die outside the hospital, I’ll say 30% is too high.

 
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Whyatt said:
Be careful with this interpretation. In this compassionate use trial, the patients were very sick, with the majority on ventilators. The side effects could very possibly be (I believe likely) a result of COVID-19.

The below is cut from the the original publication. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007016?query=featured_home

Remdesivir appears to have a favorable clinical safety profile, as reported on the basis of experience in approximately 500 persons, including healthy volunteers and patients treated for acute Ebola virus infection,18,19 and supported by our data (on file and shared with the World Health Organization [WHO]).
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Huh?  The study explicitly says that none of the patients were on ventilators.

 
The Lost One said:
Never heard of them but it's 52 week high was mid 30s, it's down in the mid teens now 
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ALLY is one I like that seems like a similar situation.  I used to own some in the $29-33 range is now up in the $14's.  It had a bad day Thurs but seems to be bouncing back overnight. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Huh?  The study explicitly says that none of the patients were on ventilators.
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Do you realize that we are discussing 2 different studies? Following the link:

During a median follow-up of 18 days, 36 patients (68%) had an improvement in oxygen-support class, including 17 of 30 patients (57%) receiving mechanical ventilation who were extubated.

 
There is absolutely risk that the market will shoot downward after this (or the next) surge. Not an expert and not trying to give any pro advice here, but the market is overbought right now... even Mancini is calling for short positions in the near future. 
 

That said, like @Todem said... time IN the market.

 
BassNBrew said:
syf also
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I bought SYF and STOR earlier this week.   Warren Buffet April update article from Seeking Alpha.  Has a few charts of Buffet's holdings and picks by target gains and yield.  

STOR and SYF stand out in several charts.  Article shows a lot of dividend paying stocks in BRK.A and B.  Saw another article on SYF and STOR on Motley Fool.

Bought DFS as well.  

 
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Mancini: 

"As usual, price comes before news. I posted a triangle setup in $SPX, and Gilead news hit and broke it out to 2855 1st target. If it continues, 2930 is next up - strong confluence of resistance there (61.8% fib and trendline connecting Mar 3 & 4 highs). Good spot for a cool-off"

 
[icon] said:
Mancini: 

"As usual, price comes before news. I posted a triangle setup in $SPX, and Gilead news hit and broke it out to 2855 1st target. If it continues, 2930 is next up - strong confluence of resistance there (61.8% fib and trendline connecting Mar 3 & 4 highs). Good spot for a cool-off"
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Will Meade @realwillmeade

I still think S&P tests $2900 today completing right shoulder of a huge bearish head and shoulders on a monthly chart then we make a new low in May. The market has fully priced in reopening of the economy and curve flattening, problem is when the economy opens it will be ugly

Bluedeer Capital @BluedeerC

ES has traded in a 25 point range off of last eve's high at 2885 (to 2860), in what is setting up to be Bull Flag that should resolve to the upside probably during the first hour of trading, with an upside target of 2900, and possibly higher to test 2925, which represents the 62% recovery retracement zone of the entire Feb- Mar decline. Only a decline that breaks 2830 will trigger initial signals that the 2885 high is actually an exhaustion high as well. 2850/45 is important support if taken out, will point to 2833/30

 
Payne said:
I took 40% of my investments and put them back into some funds this morning. Smart? dumb?
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If they were mutual funds, you won't get into them until after the close today so won't be participating in this "rally" (if it holds). Just an FYI.

As to your question, entirely depends on your personal situation.

 
Todem said:
I was just on a conference call with Bob Dole head equity strategist of Nuveen (formally with Blackrock). This is guy very similar to me. He also strongly believes (as well as I have been saying) the bottom was put in on March 23rd. Again that was the back the truck up moment. No V shape recovery.....this will take a while. 10-18 months till we are fully functioning and getting past the enormous self induced economic damage that has been done. Some industries will disappear. Some will struggle before they finally make it back and some will brush it off. Pretty simple. And I agree. 

We are now in the second phase of the bear market and it will be choppy and whiplash for a little while. The third phase will be another dip like we keep talking about and a chance for those who panicked to get back in......this is the roller coaster image I posted way back. We had that second climb (this 30% rebound from the bottom) and now we will have a less dramatic drop on the ride. I am thinking between 20,500 - 21.500 for that second drop 10-12%. Could it be deeper? Yeah of course....but I think those March 23rd lows are history. That was pure capitulation and pan panic. The Vix was 85!!!! Look at it now. 

Anyway. That is my market commentary today. 

Again this is why you can’t let your emotions direct or dictate your investment decisions. If the money was earmarked for retirement.....you simply must ride out the storms on your long journey. You can’t jump ship.....because the ship will sail away on you. You never will now when to get back in. It happens fast. Anyway this has been discussed ad nausea. 

Be well.
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I'm going with this commentary 

 
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CYDY presenting at 12:30pm Eastern, so in about 2 hours. Link goes to registration for livestream.

Welcome ! To register for this exclusive online conference, please enter your details below. For those who can’t attend our live session, we’ll send you a video of the presentations. Details: - You can join our session by using a Mac, PC or a mobile device.

AGENDA: 12:30 EST - CytoDyn, Inc (OTC: CYDY) Dr. Nader Pourhassan, Ph.D. Expanded Q & A session will follow the presentation. We look forward to your questions and participation!
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You can submit questions.

 
I wonder what the revised death counts in Wuhan does for anyone.  Not that we would ever question their numbers in the first place 🤔

 
The Lost One said:
I did the exact same thing. 

Debating on adding SYF, PFE, T, STOR...
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Thinking of buying back into BUD, or maybe DEO. Diageo is much less dependent on the leagues starting back up.

Also looking at Hyatt, but it's risen a bit since early April when I started looking at it. Still a nice healthy PE and dividend.

 
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