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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

pecorino said:
Just want to give one more shout out to chet. I've been buying and selling CYDY (mostly holding, though) since October when it was sub-30 cents. Sitting on 7000 shares at a cost basis of zero. That's a cool (unrealized) gain of almost 20 grand. I thought it could never get any better than Mansion (that was either worth $1000 or $2000, I don't recall) and it more than makes up for the cobalt disaster. You're the man, chet.
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I’m up $15k which is insane. I bought most at $1  and I do think that I may trim a bit after the next set of news which seems like it could be positive. Still way more than I would have expected to be up. I wish I bought in under .30, but I did buy a bunch of ZM in the 60s around that time so I won’t be greedy. 

 
sporthenry said:
I mean this was just data from the China study that was already cancelled. Not a biotech analyst but had the pleasure/pain of trying to analyze pharma trials before. This seems particularly troubling "the Chinese trial showed remdesivir did not improve patients’ condition or reduce pathogen’s presence in the bloodstream."

Based off my understanding of this drug, it could really only help in early or in mild to moderate patients. So not sure how many patients were in that situation. But even if it's effective in those situations, I'm not sure how helpful that will be. Better than nothing but don't think that will be enough to just go back to normal.
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We don't need a treatment for mild and moderate patients. The market will figure this one out. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I'm gonna take a flyer on a few GILD puts here. Especially as shorts from the high $80's cover. They were a $65 stock before CV19, and without any material benefit from it, they're still a $65 stock.
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Market was higher then so GILD should be below $65 all things being equal.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
We don't need a treatment for mild and moderate patients. The market will figure this one out. 
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Stopping the mild/moderate from progressing to severe/critical will take care of a lot of the fear.  

From the SF Chronicle article published this am:

“This is the ideal drug to meet everybody’s needs about reopening the country,” Patterson said. “If we had something that we could say we can treat the severe (patients) and we can keep the mild-to-moderates from getting severe, then it becomes the flu. Then we’re not so scared of people getting infected.”
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chet said:
Stopping the mild/moderate from progressing to severe/critical will take care of a lot of the fear.  

From the SF Chronicle article published this am:
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I guess my question is, how good are we at finding these mild to moderate or early cases? Seems like since this thing starts slow and lingers, by the time people are showing symptoms, these antivirals may not be as effective. 

 
chet said:
Just so there's no misunderstanding.  I wrote my message based on the shareholder meeting last Friday where Dr. Lalezari told everyone that they're working on a paper that will change how the world understands COVID-19.  All public info.
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And I just realized my post could have been construed as some kind of reference to insider info, so my apologies.  My intent was to just say "I trust what this guy says".

 
sporthenry said:
I guess my question is, how good are we at finding these mild to moderate or early cases? Seems like since this thing starts slow and lingers, by the time people are showing symptoms, these antivirals may not be as effective. 
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The thinking is that if you have an approved therapeutic that works, once you test +ve, you're administered the drug and it dramatically lowers the chance that the disease progresses.

 
Maybe the market will need to just keep buying Gilead to keep the charade that all is well and good going.  

I'm *short at a touch below $79, we'll see... This is just gambling money for ####s and giggles. 

 
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sporthenry said:
I guess my question is, how good are we at finding these mild to moderate or early cases? Seems like since this thing starts slow and lingers, by the time people are showing symptoms, these antivirals may not be as effective. 
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man, if only we could test

 
adonis said:
AAPL has been a service company who provides hardware to support their delivery system for a while now.  They'll take a hit for a bit, but while folks stick around on older devices, the demand will be ready and waiting when things pick back up for a surge in hardware upgrade purchases.  I've been a huge apple booster for a while, but haven't seen anything at all to diminish their long term position.
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If I didn't already have an outsized position, I'd be looking to add.

 
-OZ- said:
Is anyone else keeping an eye on TDOC? the company has legs. Wish I would have invested a while ago (of course) but the concept is very sound - integrated telehealth, sharing of health information among providers. Clearly there's a big need for it and they need to maintain vigilant security, but the service is going to be even bigger in the future. 

It's apparently recession proof (almost) and has tripled this year. No eatings yet, it's losing money as it grows. But man, it can get huge. Only $14B market cap right now, should continue to grow.
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I own a bit. I've always intended to hold it long-term,  but I don't know if earnings (next week, I think?) can possibly justify this valuation. I'm sure new user numbers will be off the charts, but how well have they been able to monetize it?

ETA: Just realized that reads like I may sell it. I have no intention of doing so. Just can't help but wonder if there aren't some near-term bumps in the road.

 
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What about some Pfizer? 

They bought up companies that produce vaccines which at some point down the road will be the thing. They got their fingers all over the biopharmaceutical world.  

 
Intel numbers don't look that bad although no idea how much consensus has been dragged down recently. I suspect consensus was likely a mix of analysts who have revised down and half that were too lazy. But still kinda crazy that they're projecting growth YoY and getting smoked. Guess stock is pretty much flat for year and down 12% pre-COVID. So what you're saying is the market seemed to be overpricing things?

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I own a bit. I've always intended to hold it long-term,  but I don't know if earnings (next week, I think?) can possibly justify this valuation. I'm sure new user numbers will be off the charts, but how well have they been able to monetize it?

ETA: Just realized that reads like I may sell it. I have no intention of doing so. Just can't help but wonder if there aren't some near-term bumps in the road.
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Of course if they blow it out of the water now, it'll be interesting to see whether they can leverage it for long-term gains. There's nothing saying people stick with them after they're able to visit brick and mortars again. But if they can retain customers at a decent %...

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I own a bit. I've always intended to hold it long-term,  but I don't know if earnings (next week, I think?) can possibly justify this valuation. I'm sure new user numbers will be off the charts, but how well have they been able to monetize it?

ETA: Just realized that reads like I may sell it. I have no intention of doing so. Just can't help but wonder if there aren't some near-term bumps in the road.
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I believe they already provided some guidance a few days ago that said as much.  Lots of new users, not much new income.

But income comes at a lag for them since so much of it is contract based.  With increased users comes increased leverage to re-negatioate a lot of their contracts.

Regardless, I'm not really sure how the heck to read earnings right now.  LVS disappoints a bit and they go up.  Domino's comes in pretty good and they tank.  Who the heck knows.

 
sporthenry said:
Intel numbers don't look that bad although no idea how much consensus has been dragged down recently. I suspect consensus was likely a mix of analysts who have revised down and half that were too lazy. But still kinda crazy that they're projecting growth YoY and getting smoked. Guess stock is pretty much flat for year and down 12% pre-COVID. So what you're saying is the market seemed to be overpricing things?
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Don't forget that Intel should have seen a little bump, although Q1 numbers were really only 2 weeks of stay at home. Q2 is the quarter to really pay attention to, but again laptops were in high demand (sold out in a lot of places) due to shifting your workforce to work from home. Wouldn't have hit Q1 that much, but I think they are one of those companies to benefit a bit.

 
JerseyToughGuys said:
What does Draft King’s revenue look like for the next six months?
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I am of the belief that sports will be one of, if not the first things back. We rely on sports. It will bring a sense of normalcy. People are losing billions in the process. TV ratings, owners, etc. Sports will be back without fans as soon as possible and can make the argument, sports betting will take off since so many will be watching and could be back before a lot of casinos. The latter may not be likely but who knows. 

I haven't done a ton with SPACs. Thing is up 64% YTD so imagine some of the IPO pop is gone. I do have a few calls I picked up as part of unusual activity so hoping for a little pop. At worst, we'll have Robin Hood people at home with nothing better to do than put money in a name they know. Have to look at valuation a little more. 

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I own a bit. I've always intended to hold it long-term,  but I don't know if earnings (next week, I think?) can possibly justify this valuation. I'm sure new user numbers will be off the charts, but how well have they been able to monetize it?

ETA: Just realized that reads like I may sell it. I have no intention of doing so. Just can't help but wonder if there aren't some near-term bumps in the road.
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They are the dominant player after some key acquisitions. Telehealth is here to stay. No questions. One hospital did 1,000 visits all of last year and then did 11,000 in 6 days due to the pandemic. More transformation in a week than the last 5 years. That being said there is completion and there will be more. 

 
I jumped in on MESO. Historically, I have a poor record of jumping on hot stocks pre-market, so buyer beware,

But,

Mesoblast Reports High Survival Rate for Covid-19 Treatment Remestemcel-L
— 6:11 AM ET 04/24/2020

Mesoblast Ltd. (MESO) on Friday reported 83% survival in ventilator-dependent Covid-19 patients with moderate/severe acute respiratory distress syndrome treated during March and April with two intravenous infusions of Mesoblast's allogeneic mesenchymal stem cell product candidate remestemcel-L within the first five days.

The company said 75% have successfully come off ventilator support at a median of 10 days. 

 
Yeah. I do all I can to resist jumping in pre market in something like pre market or 1st hour. A lot of times though they dip after the first hour or 2. I'll watch it.

 
cosjobs said:
I jumped in on MESO. Historically, I have a poor record of jumping on hot stocks pre-market, so buyer beware,

But,

Mesoblast Reports High Survival Rate for Covid-19 Treatment Remestemcel-L
— 6:11 AM ET 04/24/2020

Mesoblast Ltd. (MESO) on Friday reported 83% survival in ventilator-dependent Covid-19 patients with moderate/severe acute respiratory distress syndrome treated during March and April with two intravenous infusions of Mesoblast's allogeneic mesenchymal stem cell product candidate remestemcel-L within the first five days.

The company said 75% have successfully come off ventilator support at a median of 10 days. 
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Wish I had seen this sooner.  

 
A few pages back some of you were talking about how many individual stocks you own, some seemed like a lot. What's the general consensus? 

Just looking at my own, I have 8 individual companies, 4 sector funds (QCLN, JETS, SBIO, FIVG), 12 "diversified" ETFs like vug or bnd, then VTI and L2050. 

Curious to get some thoughts here. (Real retirement sometime around 2037-2040 depending on kids and the job at the time)

Not including things at less than 1%: 

L2050 29%
S Fund 14%
C Fund 9%
VUG 5%
VTI 5%
VNQ 4%
BRK-B 4%
VEA 3%
VPU 3%
VBK 3%
VIOO 3%
VTV 3%
VWO 3%
I Fund 2%
OHI 2%
JETS 2%
HD 2%
BABA 1%
DFS 1%
VSS 1%
SBIO 1%
FIVG 1%
QCLN 1%

 
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I usually have 10-12 long term holdings and 1-2 that I’m kind of playing with. Though one of the latter is CYDY and it might end up being one of the former if it keeps going this way.

 
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