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Stock Thread (29 Viewers)

The last day of the month is the worst for a down day when you run monthly accounting reports (only for my own and wife). 

 
Buckna said:
My understanding is you pay taxes on the withdrawal although this can be deferred over 3 years and offset by redepositing. Best to talk to a CPA, I believe you are referring to the hardship withdrawal provisions of the CARES Act from the earlier posts and none of that has really been hammered out yet. Were you or a family member diagnosed with COVID? Lose your job or get furloughed due to COVID? Those are the most obvious eligibility requirements, but Congress wrote in some other nebulous provisions that have not been fully fleshed out yet that may end up being very broad.

Last article I read said that those that can afford the tax hit and meet eligibility will likely be able to make out like bandits as they would be able to totally move around funds as you can withdraw from one IRA and then redeposit over the next 3 years to a totally different IRA. You could use this to manage your tax bill in pretty unique ways. For example, income way down in 2020 due to COVID? Withdraw now and pay your tax on it, then redeposit and take a deduction in one or more of the next few years when your income is way back up and in a higher tax bracket.

Some of the dangers are of course is you can't afford to pay it back, you don't pay your taxes and get hit in the 3rd year, you miss out on market returns until you put the money back in, etc. And my understanding is this applies to both IRA's and 401K's, but most custodians have not caught up to the CARES Act at all yet and have no idea how they will manage these withdrawals. They also increased 401K loans up to 100K instead of 50K as another option too.
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Lol. Guess I need to wait until there’s a test to tell me if I had it or hold off until fall when I get it.  

And thank you for the excellent info @Buckna

 
Last edited by a moderator:
GoBirds said:
If there is a pullback of any significance I’m adding more Amazon. This new normal we are probably looking at plays into their business model perfectly, and while it may not show in these partial numbers of the Covid impact this quarter you have to think we see them benefit even more going forward. 
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Sure, but this isn't some secret, there's a reason why it trades at a P/E north of 100 and it's up nearly 50% in the last 6 weeks. Obviously it could do even better than expected but it's already pricing in a ton of "benefit" going forward.

 
NajehHejan said:
Just curious - why so bullish?
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A) stock went public at arguably the worst time possible

B) They are best in class for sports betting in terms of look/feel/presentation

C) They are the platform of the millenials...they have branded themselves extremely well

D) Some of the best backing a company can have

E) Rapidly emerging sports betting market

F) Will see an uptick in interest and price as sports open up over the coming months

G) Name the last sportsbook that didn't make money

I' will be shocked if this isn't at least a 3X stock with a 2 year horizon.

 
TripItUp said:
A) stock went public at arguably the worst time possible

B) They are best in class for sports betting in terms of look/feel/presentation

C) They are the platform of the millenials...they have branded themselves extremely well

D) Some of the best backing a company can have

E) Rapidly emerging sports betting market

F) Will see an uptick in interest and price as sports open up over the coming months

G) Name the last sportsbook that didn't make money

I' will be shocked if this isn't at least a 3X stock with a 2 year horizon.
Click to expand...
I hope sports betting can ramp up faster than dfs dries up

 
TripItUp said:
DKNG is pure gold...potential 10X -20X stock with a 2-4 year horizon.  

I love everything about them and the current price.
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Freed up some cash today and will be joining you soon on this.

 
Pick your poison:

End of month buying earlier this week..... sell in may & go away......hit fib resistance.......profit taking....job losses finally affecting markets - realization that 30 million people have no $....gotta retest the lows....earnings season finishing up, only bad news to look forward to. 

Watching 2850.

 
Bob Sacamano said:
I wish all companies behaved this way. Things might be rockier, but we'd all be better off.
Click to expand...
Yep, they don’t care about this quarter if they feel like using $3B to setup one day shipping if they feel like it will net them big down the road that’s fine. They are still willing to invest because they know adding a new thing could turn into an AWS or Advertising or not needing to pay others for a lot of shipping, etc. It’s nice knowing that they feel that growing the business is better than scrimping for earnings every quarter. Their R&D expense last year was $35B. Apple’s was $16B. Facebook was $13B, Google $26B and Netflix and Tesla under $2B.

 
TripItUp said:
A) stock went public at arguably the worst time possible

B) They are best in class for sports betting in terms of look/feel/presentation

C) They are the platform of the millenials...they have branded themselves extremely well

D) Some of the best backing a company can have

E) Rapidly emerging sports betting market

F) Will see an uptick in interest and price as sports open up over the coming months

G) Name the last sportsbook that didn't make money

I' will be shocked if this isn't at least a 3X stock with a 2 year horizon.
Click to expand...
Seems like we could see a surge in betting legalization as states try to bridge their budget shortfalls as well.

 
humpback said:
Sure, but this isn't some secret, there's a reason why it trades at a P/E north of 100 and it's up nearly 50% in the last 6 weeks. Obviously it could do even better than expected but it's already pricing in a ton of "benefit" going forward.
Click to expand...
For sure, I’m more of a long term investor than a trader though and I only think this speeds up the trend to them taking over further. I added a few shares when it dipped to the $1600 range, I’ll probably continue to add whenever there are good pullbacks for the foreseeable future as I’m in for the long haul. 

 
The Lost One said:
I didn't have the funds when it hit $1632 but really wish I did. Hell, I would've bought 2 shares if I could've.  
Click to expand...
I did but bailed at 2200. Thought it would pull back like it did last year a couple of times. At 2400 I see numerous other stocks doubling before amazon sniffs 5k

 
Golf Guy 69 said:
I disagree.  Follow the knowledge here.  It's free, legit and makes boatloads.

People just laying out under valued stocks is insane.
Click to expand...
Much of the knowledge I cant follow very well.  Not so in sync with a lot of the lingo in here.  

As for undervalued stocks, yes, lots of good advice.  I made a little.  Hopefully I can make a lot more.  

Lot of stocks have fallen back down quite a bit today and maybe will tomorrow so far.  Restaurants down 10+%.  Dfs down a lot and maybe down again tomorrow.  

I honestly still feel like the entire market SHOULD take a giant dump down another 30%. It probably won't.  Nothing seems to make sense.

 
-OZ- said:
I get the tax benefit, but unless you're predicting the drop, why take it back out?
Click to expand...
Anyone who is doing this kind of tax stuff is an idiot if they don't have at least a good CPA doing their taxes.

 
Buckna said:
My understanding is you pay taxes on the withdrawal although this can be deferred over 3 years and offset by redepositing. Best to talk to a CPA, I believe you are referring to the hardship withdrawal provisions of the CARES Act from the earlier posts and none of that has really been hammered out yet. Were you or a family member diagnosed with COVID? Lose your job or get furloughed due to COVID? Those are the most obvious eligibility requirements, but Congress wrote in some other nebulous provisions that have not been fully fleshed out yet that may end up being very broad.

Last article I read said that those that can afford the tax hit and meet eligibility will likely be able to make out like bandits as they would be able to totally move around funds as you can withdraw from one IRA and then redeposit over the next 3 years to a totally different IRA. You could use this to manage your tax bill in pretty unique ways. For example, income way down in 2020 due to COVID? Withdraw now and pay your tax on it, then redeposit and take a deduction in one or more of the next few years when your income is way back up and in a higher tax bracket.

Some of the dangers are of course is you can't afford to pay it back, you don't pay your taxes and get hit in the 3rd year, you miss out on market returns until you put the money back in, etc. And my understanding is this applies to both IRA's and 401K's, but most custodians have not caught up to the CARES Act at all yet and have no idea how they will manage these withdrawals. They also increased 401K loans up to 100K instead of 50K as another option too.
Click to expand...
I'm calling my accountant tomorrow to see if there's a way to migrate some Ira or 401K into my Roth. That would be pretty huge.

 
TripItUp said:
DKNG is pure gold...potential 10X -20X stock with a 2-4 year horizon.  

I love everything about them and the current price.
Click to expand...
Good luck. Their juice has always been too high for serious gamblers and with the newly added added financial burden most all states are about to face, I would be stunned if the states themselves don't take over all sports betting. All they would have to do is charge a regular bookie juice and they'd undercut Draft Kings too much for them to prosper.

 
TripItUp said:
A) stock went public at arguably the worst time possible

B) They are best in class for sports betting in terms of look/feel/presentation

C) They are the platform of the millenials...they have branded themselves extremely well

D) Some of the best backing a company can have

E) Rapidly emerging sports betting market

F) Will see an uptick in interest and price as sports open up over the coming months

G) Name the last sportsbook that didn't make money

I' will be shocked if this isn't at least a 3X stock with a 2 year horizon.
Click to expand...
Wear rubber soled shoes

 
cosjobs said:
I'd wait  at least until some sporting event is actually scheduled; that's an irreplaceable component of their business model.
Click to expand...
Agreed. I love DK and love their prospects going forward but until I see some revenue and financial #'s there is no way I'm touching this stock. Add to that the fact it seems a lot of IPO's seem to level off after their initial hype.

 
ROCKET said:
Agreed. I love DK and love their prospects going forward but until I see some revenue and financial #'s there is no way I'm touching this stock. Add to that the fact it seems a lot of IPO's seem to level off after their initial hype.
Click to expand...
Yep. Unless you're getting in before anyone else it seems best to wait a while on most initial offerings.

 
Because I have a very obvious conflict of interest, I have been very hesitant to say anything negative about Remdesivir.  I don't want to be seen as a person  bashing a competing treatment because I am only interested in my solution working.  That couldn't be farther from the truth--I want someone to figure out this virus/disease.

All of the above being said, I can't help but be outraged at this situation.  I apologize if this enters the politics realm, and if so, mods delete and I will repost over there.

Here's a good explanation why Gilead has been getting so much enthusiasm from the White House. 

Joe Grogan just announced his resignation as the head of Trump's Domestic Policy Council. He spent 11 years working as a lobbyist for Gilead. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-grogan-to-resign-as-top-white-house-domestic-policy-adviser-11588204403
 

WASHINGTON—Top White House policy adviser Joe Grogan is leaving his post, the latest sign of turnover as the administration grapples with a coronavirus pandemic. 

Mr. Grogan, head of the Domestic Policy Council, said in an interview he was leaving on good terms with President Trump and has already stayed in the position longer than he’d planned. He said he would leave on May 24. 

His decision to leave, which aides have anticipated for months, comes shortly after former Rep. Mark Meadows took over as the president’s fourth chief of staff. 

“I had a great conversation with the president and a great conversation with Meadows,” he said. 

Mr. Grogan began heading the Domestic Policy Council last year, after serving as a top health-care official in the White House budget office, where he became a close ally of former budget director and former acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney. He previously served as a lobbyist for the drug company Gilead Sciences Inc. 

Mr. Grogan has been deeply involved in the administration’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. He has been a member of the White House coronavirus task force since it was formed in late January, and he was among several officials who expressed concerns internally in February and March about the nation’s testing capacity, aides said. In late March, he began urging the president to reopen the economy, people familiar with the discussions said. 

In the interview, Mr. Grogan said he was optimistic about the development of therapies to treat Covid-19. “I do think there’s a light at the end of the tunnel,” he said. 

In recent weeks, amid criticism from some administration officials about Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar’s abilities to coordinate the coronavirus response across health-care agencies, Mr. Grogan began convening his own meetings with agency leaders at HHS, including from the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. 

Mr. Grogan has long clashed with Mr. Azar, who led the early stages of the administration’s response to the coronavirus. Last year, Mr. Grogan sought to block a proposal by Mr. Azar to lower drug prices by limiting rebates to middlemen. Mr. Grogan, a fiscal conservative, had been concerned the plan could raise costs for seniors. 

Mr. Grogan’s departure is the latest reshuffling of the White House staff, which has undergone several major changes in the last few months alone. Mr. Meadows officially took over as chief of staff on March 30. Soon after, Kayleigh McEnany replaced Stephanie Grisham as the press secretary. 

As Domestic Policy Council director, Mr. Grogan oversaw a broad range of issues, including health care, regulation and a potential overhaul of the government’s surveillance program for people suspected of posing a national-security risk. 

The White House declined to answer a question about who would replace Mr. Grogan. 

Write to Stephanie Armour at stephanie.armour@wsj.com and Rebecca Ballhaus at Rebecca.Ballhaus@wsj.com
Click to expand...

 
cosjobs said:
Anyone who is doing this kind of tax stuff is an idiot if they don't have at least a good CPA doing their taxes.
Click to expand...
Hey now...I resemble that remark.

cosjobs said:
Good luck. Their juice has always been too high for serious gamblers and with the newly added added financial burden most all states are about to face, I would be stunned if the states themselves don't take over all sports betting. All they would have to do is charge a regular bookie juice and they'd undercut Draft Kings too much for them to prosper.
Click to expand...
Well the smart states won't take it over, they'll invite outsides companies to run it and squeeze them like the coach roaches they are.  I also suspect the Vegas lobby will have a lot of say so.  The DFS component is going down the crapper.  I've managed to be successful there, but it's been based on only playing overlay and not my "skill".  I think Dodds bolted Fanduel this year for a low cost option.  The traffic in the DFS forum here has been dropping 50% a year.  I really think their model would be better if the cut the juice to 5% and cut back on the affiliate money and ads.

 
chet said:
Because I have a very obvious conflict of interest, I have been very hesitant to say anything negative about Remdesivir.  I don't want to be seen as a person  bashing a competing treatment because I am only interested in my solution working.  That couldn't be farther from the truth--I want someone to figure out this virus/disease.

All of the above being said, I can't help but be outraged at this situation.  I apologize if this enters the politics realm, and if so, mods delete and I will repost over there.

Here's a good explanation why Gilead has been getting so much enthusiasm from the White House. 

Joe Grogan just announced his resignation as the head of Trump's Domestic Policy Council. He spent 11 years working as a lobbyist for Gilead. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-grogan-to-resign-as-top-white-house-domestic-policy-adviser-11588204403
 
Click to expand...
I'd think Fauci himself has some interest in seeing it succeed, given the trial was sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, which he directs. 

 
Bob Sacamano said:
chet said:
Because I have a very obvious conflict of interest, I have been very hesitant to say anything negative about Remdesivir.  I don't want to be seen as a person  bashing a competing treatment because I am only interested in my solution working.  That couldn't be farther from the truth--I want someone to figure out this virus/disease.

All of the above being said, I can't help but be outraged at this situation.  I apologize if this enters the politics realm, and if so, mods delete and I will repost over there.

Here's a good explanation why Gilead has been getting so much enthusiasm from the White House. 

Joe Grogan just announced his resignation as the head of Trump's Domestic Policy Council. He spent 11 years working as a lobbyist for Gilead. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-grogan-to-resign-as-top-white-house-domestic-policy-adviser-11588204403
 
Click to expand...
I'd think Fauci himself has some interest in seeing it succeed, given the trial was sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, which he directs. 
Click to expand...
Wouldn’t Grogan’s stepping down be a good thing?  I would think Gilead wouldn’t be getting pushed so hard now. 

 
I am praying to the sweet baby Jebus that Bruce Patterson gets published today in the New England Journal of Medicine.  It won't be in the official weekly version but instead it would be in the special Coronavirus online section where articles are published immediately after submission and before they are peer-reviewed.  Being published in the NEJM will give a lot of legitimacy even with the article not being peer-reviewed.  Maybe enough legitimacy that Gates and/or Fauci start mentioning leronlimab by name.  If Gates believes in it, it is irrelevant what Trump or FDA people believe or want.  The government will not stand in the way of what Gates wants to do when it comes to Coronavirus.

 
Exxon Mobil (XOM) – Exxon posted a GAAP loss of 14 cents per share, and a non-GAAP profit of 53 cents per share. The consensus estimate was for a breakeven quarter. The company announced a 30% cut in capital spending and will also reduce cash operating expenses by 15%.

Verdict - Price is up

Chevron (CVX) – The oil giant posted first-quarter profit of $1.93 per share, which included $660 million in one-time favorable items. Revenue beat forecasts. The consensus estimate had been 68 cents a share. Chevron said it is taking steps to preserve its dividend and to manage the current downturn responsibly, including a further cut in capital spending.

Verdict - Price is up

Crazy

 
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