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The good news: Treatments and vaccines are coming that really could turn the tide in 2020

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/5/2/1942082/-The-good-news-Treatments-and-vaccines-are-coming-that-really-could-turn-the-tide-in-2020

Behind remdesivir is another antiviral called leronlimab. The developer of the drug, CytoDyn, has reported ‘impressive results’ in a small trial of COVID-19 patients. Leronlamab is interesting for two big reasons. One, it attacks the mechanism through which viruses are able to reproduce themselves in human cells. Second, it can supposedly block the overwhelming immune response known as a “cytokine storm” that were thought to be responsible for most deaths during the 1918 flu epidemic and are known to be involved in some COVID-19 deaths. Being able to both fight the virus directly, and fight a potential cytokine storm is a big deal.

However, there are reasons Anthony Fauci isn’t yet standing up to make leronamib standard treatment. First, the results CytoDyn is promoting came from small-scale phase 1/2 trials in which only a total of around 25 patients have actually received the drug. Second, though the fact that leronamib was developed as an HIV treatment (and is being studied for use against metastatic breast cancer)  rather than for Ebola may make it seem like it might be available in greater quantities, but in fact it is still in clinical trials for use against HIV. Finally, there have so far been few published results from the initial trials that allows objective review of the results.

In any case, the results from early trials of leronamib have been exciting enough that researchers have already jumped into a number of larger trials. And, in part because clinical trials for leronamib with HIV have shown limited side effects, it’s being used on patients with mild or moderate symptoms in addition to those with severe forms of COVID-19. In other words, loronamib might turn out to be a treatment that is given broadly to anyone showing symptoms, rather than just those on the border of critical conditions. Big emphasis on might.

But there do seem to be indications that general antivirals, like remdesivir and leronamib, can have an impact on COVID-19. And that’s a very good thing. The way in which viruses work, by hijacking the mechanisms of the cells they invade, means that fighting them can be extremely difficult. There is a reason there are many, many more antibiotics and antivirals.

 

 

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There has not been one reported death among the first 49 or 54 patients who have taken leronlimab with the exception of the 7 of 11 that died who were very critically ill.  Remdesivir refused to treat patients that were even intubated.  And then they changed the endpoint of their study to be when patients were discharged instead of mortality.  Clearly, preventing mortality is what matters most.  Remdesivir is not saving lives.  Leronlimab is saving lives.  Leronlimab has zero serious adverse effects.  There will be no way to prevent leronlimab from becoming the main Covid treatment if it's data continues on it's current path.

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1 minute ago, Don Hutson said:

There has not been one reported death among the first 49 or 54 patients who have taken leronlimab with the exception of the 7 of 11 that died who were very critically ill.  Remdesivir refused to treat patients that were even intubated.  And then they changed the endpoint of their study to be when patients were discharged instead of mortality.  Clearly, preventing mortality is what matters most.  Remdesivir is not saving lives.  Leronlimab is saving lives.  Leronlimab has zero serious adverse effects.  There will be no way to prevent leronlimab from becoming the main Covid treatment if it's data continues on it's current path.

 Oh my sweet summer child

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https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2020-05-01/repurposed-antiviral-drugs-could-set-a-new-standard-of-care-for-covid-19-treatments-says-dr-anthony-fauci

CytoDyn Inc. (OTCQB: CYDY) recently announced updates on 49 COVID-19 patients who have received leronlimab under the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) emergency Investigational New Drug (eIND) program. Bruce Patterson, M.D., Chief Executive Officer and founder of IncellDx, a diagnostics company and an advisor to CytoDyn, expanded on these findings by stating, "We are excited that patients are responding extremely well to leronlimab as expected from the novel mechanism of COVID-19 pathogenesis we discovered and will be reporting in the coming days."

 

 

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30 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

The market is going to puke so hard tomorrow after Buffett interview. Can’t wait to short it more. 

You must be a delight at parties.

😜

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4 minutes ago, NREC34 said:

I just checked weekend Wall Street and surprisingly not as bad as I figured it would look. Down around 65 points. 

I have to go back and watch/read the transcript but the overall tone didn't seem too bad. He still said don't bet against America. The airlines will likely be the big story from it all. You can read between the lines on his cash build as being near-term bearish. I thought he'd be more than nibbling at the bottom but I suppose he struggled to get his head around it all. But I also suspect he was waiting for calls from companies so he could get his preferred deals but since the Fed kickstarted the debt market, most companies got their fix there. Buffett doesn't strike me as a guy who wants to bail out CCC type companies, although OXY might get there, so he's left to sit on his pile of cash for now. I do think it's indicative that he thinks it gets worse from here but he also seems like someone who is willing to miss the first upleg. But he does seem like he is practicing some market-timing. 

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8 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

There has not been one reported death among the first 49 or 54 patients who have taken leronlimab with the exception of the 7 of 11 that died who were very critically ill.  Remdesivir refused to treat patients that were even intubated.  And then they changed the endpoint of their study to be when patients were discharged instead of mortality.  Clearly, preventing mortality is what matters most.  Remdesivir is not saving lives.  Leronlimab is saving lives.  Leronlimab has zero serious adverse effects.  There will be no way to prevent leronlimab from becoming the main Covid treatment if it's data continues on it's current path.

Some of these other biotech companies do not have the lobbying power of Gilead.  Makes it an uphill battle to get it on the national news and in the ears of people like Fauci and Birx.

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9 hours ago, cubd8 said:

This has been a great thread (perhaps a bit too heavy on CYDY, but I get it).

Similar to you, i got into stocks this year. I do own about 550 shares through my company program at discounted rates, and those have held up (down 25% this year), but very well over the past few year.

I currently have the following. I did a lot of buying in February before things took a dump and since have been buying most of these at discounted prices. Obviously, thinking longer-term with United, Boeing and Disney.

How am I doing? Open to suggestions.

39 shares of Boeing (between 125 and 150)

37 shares of Disney (about half between 136 and 145 and the other half under 115)

50 shares of United (all bought between 22 and 26)

25 shares of Target (bought at 15 at 117 and 10 at 113)

25 shares of Uber (25 shares at 38)

1 share of Google (1513)

I like the bottom three way more than the top three (but unsure on Uber), although there plenty of others here cheering on Disney and Boeing.

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10 hours ago, cubd8 said:

Isn't all of this news priced in?

Nobody is flying airlines YoY and most don't expect a dramatic uptick this year. Once there is a vaccine in place, air travel will pick up again (although it will pick up some as the weather improves and lockdowns end over the summer), but will still be way, way down.

I do own 50 share of UAL (bought 25 at 22 and the other half about 26). I don't expect it to be a stock that does much this year, and could go down further, but do think it could be a good investment if you're patient - in 1-3 years.

I do think that business travel could change as a result. Not sure if sales people will fully adapt to Skype/Zoom, etc. and there will always be a need for in-person meetings, but a good percentage of meetings can be productive over a video conference.

 

10 hours ago, cubd8 said:

Any comments on Boeing? Been hearing conflicting news on them all week...

I mean if you're bullish on airlines, then Buffett is about to get you a bigger discount.They'll likely be 10%+ off on Monday. At this point, I don't think anyone knows what is priced in. I'd suspect only a few of the most sophisticated folks actually have analysis on cash burn, reopening, ramp back to some normalcy based on a vaccine. I'd love to know what was priced in because then I could invest accordingly. Are we all going to reopen this summer and gradually get back to real life? Is the wave in the fall likely to push us back to extreme social distancing if not complete lockdowns? Perhaps the greatest question, do we get a vaccine in the fall (which by all accounts seems impossible), in 12 months? 18 months? 24 months? If we don't have a vaccine for 24 months, I'd suspect these airlines will be bankrupt or close to it. Who is going to willingly get back into a box with a bunch of strangers? And running at 50% or 66% capacity doesn't seem like it'll be enough with all the fixed costs. I suppose they can raise the prices since anyone crazy enough to fly isn't likely worried about price but who knows. 

However, Buffett is seen as a somewhat patient, long-term investor. Obviously as he said, when he sells, he sells it all. But it's a condemnation of the industry as a whole. Buffett said, directly or indirectly, that airlines are pretty uninvestable. The guy just sold these stocks down 50-60% from a few months earlier. Now what makes Buffett, Buffett, is that he doesn't think like that. He could be wrong and maybe they're priced in or fair value in 20-30% higher, but he doesn't want to invest in them, so he sells it. Doesn't let emotion like being down 60% cloud his judgment. The positive is that he already sold his ~10% stakes, the markets absorbed this and these stocks didn't hit their lows but that will change tomorrow. 

As far as Boeing. I continue to think it's a stock you trade. Tough to invest but seems like it'll bounce around between $120-$150 (and occasionally touch $100 or $180). Probably too late to sell puts on it now but may buy some calls depending on how bad it goes down from Warren saying too many planes. Between when the stock peaked at $400+ a share and now, they've added ~$50 billion of debt to the balance sheet. Their market cap peaked at $225bn+ and it's now at $75bn. So assuming they burn some or most of the debt, their enterprise value is only down ~40-45%. Still significant but not as bad as the 60-65% decline in the stock. So do you think between coronavirus and the 737 Max they've destroyed 40-45% of their value? And that isn't even taking into consideration the fact that leverage increases risk and destroys EV at a certain point. 

The $25 billion debt raise was a gift from the Fed. You can read it bullish or bearish. Bullish they aren't taking government funds and were able to raise $25 billion. They massively upsized it and I'm sure they took more than they needed in the near-term. The big question is how long does that last them? Bearishly, it shows how much cash they're burning and how much they think they need. They just raised 1/3 of their market cap and doubled their debt balance from 12/31 in one day. From an equity standpoint, I'd probably view it as bullish just because you knew they needed cash and avoided the bailout. Anytime you can do that, it's a win. They added more fixed costs to the firm so more or less, levered up the returns but if it works, your returns are magnified than if they did some type of equity raise. 

Edited by sporthenry
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50 minutes ago, Jayrok said:

Some of these other biotech companies do not have the lobbying power of Gilead.  Makes it an uphill battle to get it on the national news and in the ears of people like Fauci and Birx.

Leronlimab's clinical data will not be ignored if it is clearly better than remdesivir's clinical data.  So far, leronlimab's data looks far better than remdesivir's data.  Remdesivir looks like it barely helps.

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1 hour ago, NREC34 said:

I just checked weekend Wall Street and surprisingly not as bad as I figured it would look. Down around 65 points. 

The way Buffet was talking we are screwed, so I figured we would open up 3%.

 

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15 hours ago, The Lost One said:

Crazy thing, Todem, I believe,  made a recommendation on one of them maybe DAL and I've held it in my favorites forever and never bought in. Probably won't now. 

IIRC @Todem was saying airlines/travel were risky as hell and maybe too early just yet for likely the same reasons WB backed out of his positions 

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1 hour ago, Don Hutson said:

Leronlimab's clinical data will not be ignored if it is clearly better than remdesivir's clinical data.  So far, leronlimab's data looks far better than remdesivir's data.  Remdesivir looks like it barely helps.

Scientists want to see the evidence that remdesivir works for covid19

Included in the article is a link to study that was also published as showing that a smaller group of patients who received remdesivir in China did not recover faster than those on placebo. 

Money is a powerful entity when it comes to political influence.  Big pharma has the money and it looks like remdesivir is the drug of choice, at least for now.  Leronlimab may have better data but unfortunately it may take more than success in trials to get decision-makers to notice.  

We live in a world driven by sound bites.  Someone like Boris Johnson getting better after taking leronlimab may have been a catalyst to push CytoDyn beyond big pharma's ability to block, in terms of world exposure. 

Dr. Patterson's paper will hopefully open some influential eyes that can shed light on leronlimab, but could it be held up in red tape?  Heck, an Instragram influencer with a success story would have a quicker effect in this society.  Better yet, a celebrity who struggled with the virus and recovered after being successfully treated with leronlimab would seem like a story that could ring some bells.  

Most of us here got into CYDY (thanks Chet) before coronavirus became an issue in our country.  We're in it for the promising HIV and cancer treatment possibilities.  A potential problem to that is the postponement of FDA talks regarding anything that isn't covid-related.  Could the FDA back-burner non-covid approval cases?  I don't know.  

I still like the long-term potential/promise of CYDY in the HIV/cancer trials, but it would be great if it is allowed in the ring to show decision-makers how it can help fight covid 19.  Hopefully soon that will happen. 

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19 hours ago, Whyatt said:

 

This information looks inaccurate, any idea where can I find the source of this?

It was taken from slides that Nader Pourhassan presented on a shareholder call on Friday.  Why do you say it looks inaccurate?  I will try to track down a link to the call.

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4 hours ago, NREC34 said:

Everyone fade Buffett?

I'm starting to think it's time to sell the BRK-B shares. keep the rest of the portfolio intact. 

I'm really not sure what to do with JETS. he'll sink it a bit just by people following. But (and I'm clearly not as smart as Warren) I still think the industry comes back alright.

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On 5/1/2020 at 12:08 PM, Todem said:

 

As always. I will post here when I do some real buying. 

Yes please do.

I am fully back in the market with my 403b(have been for a little bit now).

I have a chunk of cash available from when I refinanced my house, so if the indexes dip more so be it, hopefully I can pounce with my available cash.  Hopefully I can piggyback some of yours.  

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From an article in Digital Trends, reviewing a number of hopeful COVID drugs.

Leronlimab (PRO 140): CCR5 is a protein on the surface of white blood cells that plays an important role in the way HIV develops in the human body.

Leronlimab is a monoclonal antibody being studied as a potential treatment for HIV. It binds to the CCR5 receptor, which inhibits the release of inflammatory cytokines.

Biotechnology company CytoDyn modified its clinical trial to evaluate Leronlimab’s effect on severe cases of COVID-19.

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8 hours ago, sporthenry said:

I mean if you're bullish on airlines, then Buffett is about to get you a bigger discount.They'll likely be 10%+ off on Monday. At this point, I don't think anyone knows what is priced in. I'd suspect only a few of the most sophisticated folks actually have analysis on cash burn, reopening, ramp back to some normalcy based on a vaccine. I'd love to know what was priced in because then I could invest accordingly. Are we all going to reopen this summer and gradually get back to real life? Is the wave in the fall likely to push us back to extreme social distancing if not complete lockdowns? Perhaps the greatest question, do we get a vaccine in the fall (which by all accounts seems impossible), in 12 months? 18 months? 24 months? If we don't have a vaccine for 24 months, I'd suspect these airlines will be bankrupt or close to it. Who is going to willingly get back into a box with a bunch of strangers? And running at 50% or 66% capacity doesn't seem like it'll be enough with all the fixed costs. I suppose they can raise the prices since anyone crazy enough to fly isn't likely worried about price but who knows. 

However, Buffett is seen as a somewhat patient, long-term investor. Obviously as he said, when he sells, he sells it all. But it's a condemnation of the industry as a whole. Buffett said, directly or indirectly, that airlines are pretty uninvestable. The guy just sold these stocks down 50-60% from a few months earlier. Now what makes Buffett, Buffett, is that he doesn't think like that. He could be wrong and maybe they're priced in or fair value in 20-30% higher, but he doesn't want to invest in them, so he sells it. Doesn't let emotion like being down 60% cloud his judgment. The positive is that he already sold his ~10% stakes, the markets absorbed this and these stocks didn't hit their lows but that will change tomorrow. 

....

I'd love to know as well. It seems to me that the market is pricing in darn near best case scenario, but there's just no way to really know. That makes me want to sell everything in sight since I think there's almost zero chance we end up at best case scenario. On the other hand we have the trillions of dollars being printed with the explicit promise to "do whatever it takes", which makes me want to buy everything in sight.

I've been a big follower of Buffett, his philosophy just makes a ton of sense to me, and once again I find myself agreeing with him. We will eventually overcome this and achieve new highs, but his actions- selling out of airlines, more cash on hand than ever- leads me to believe that he doesn't think it's going to be any time soon. He just added to his stakes in the airlines in February, and laughingly said he wouldn't be selling them when asked about it when this first stated getting "real" in early March, only to do a 180 and sell them all shortly after.

He seems more uncertain about the short and mid term future than I've ever heard him be, and once again, I'm right there in agreement with him. So many unknowns, such a wide range of possibilities.

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5 hours ago, chet said:

It was taken from slides that Nader Pourhassan presented on a shareholder call on Friday.  Why do you say it looks inaccurate?  I will try to track down a link to the call.

I appreciate the reply Chet. While I haven’t viewed the whole presentation from Friday l do see they presented more granular information in other slides.

I did see a discrepancy in that the critical patients in the posted “10 extubated” vs. the presented “10 extubated or improving”. 

Since the start, I have attempted to add another point of view on the CYDY discussion to this thread. It’s become clear to me that the group here doesn’t find much value in that. That’s fine by me, it’s less effort to read vs. post.

Good luck to the CYDY longs.

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So did we get an explanation on the Form 144? So far, I've seen 5 different explanations ranging from the 144 was a fake to it will help get NASDAQ listing to it doesn't mean he is selling to he's floating the company money now for bills. Now I don't deal a ton in microcaps so learning with a lot of you. I also take that management doesn't deal a lot with filings. I only own a few hundred for pure *hits and giggles. So no real dog in the fight. Just seems like people have real money in it so don't want to see people get screwed here. That said, there is no reason to shout down skeptics or critics. I get there is a lot of shady stuff on the short side but the same could be lobbed at the bulls. Investing is about finding and understanding the blind spots so I prefer to know what the bears are say and if it's complete crap, then I'm more confident in my investments.

I've never seen a 144 for an option exercise. The SEC states you file a form 144 for:

Quote

This Form must be filed with the SEC by an affiliate of the issuer as a notice of the proposed sale of securities in reliance on Rule 144, when the amount to be sold under Rule 144 by the affiliate during any three-month period exceeds 5,000 shares or units or has an aggregate sales price in excess of $50,000. A person filing a Form 144 must have a bona fide intention to sell the securities referred to in the Form within a reasonable time after the filing of the Form.

I'm pretty sure you file a form 4 for an option or warrant exercise. Now the post that a form 4 needs to be filed after the fact is correct. I believe the 144 is a preliminary filing while the form 4 has to be filed within 2 days of the transaction. I may be missing something but I don't know what the exercising of option/warrant will do to help with a NASDAQ listing. And exercising warrants / options below $1 to sell above $3 so the company pays their bills seems convenient. Again, there could be a solid reason but I'm a healthy skeptic. If there was a good reason, it seems like management could provide it and we wouldn't have multiple different explanations. 

Edited by sporthenry
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19 minutes ago, humpback said:

I'd love to know as well. It seems to me that the market is pricing in darn near best case scenario, but there's just no way to really know. That makes me want to sell everything in sight since I think there's almost zero chance we end up at best case scenario. On the other hand we have the trillions of dollars being printed with the explicit promise to "do whatever it takes", which makes me want to buy everything in sight.

I've been a big follower of Buffett, his philosophy just makes a ton of sense to me, and once again I find myself agreeing with him. We will eventually overcome this and achieve new highs, but his actions- selling out of airlines, more cash on hand than ever- leads me to believe that he doesn't think it's going to be any time soon. He just added to his stakes in the airlines in February, and laughingly said he wouldn't be selling them when asked about it when this first stated getting "real" in early March, only to do a 180 and sell them all shortly after.

He seems more uncertain about the short and mid term future than I've ever heard him be, and once again, I'm right there in agreement with him. So many unknowns, such a wide range of possibilities.

Agree. I mean it almost seems priced better than perfection. Like a quick reopening, V-shaped recovery and a Fed stimulus to boot. When you look at it probability wise, it seems like more downside / risk than reward. I can't help but think in 3-6 months from now, I'll be kicking myself for being long anything and wondering why I didn't double down some shorts here. 

To your point, the big wildcard is the trillions from the Fed and their willingness to spend whatever. But when you read between the lines of Buffett, Powell or even a lot of corporate actions (i.e. every company raising debt), the people closest to the companies/economy seem to think it's pretty bad. There was a lot of insider buying a few weeks ago but haven't heard of a lot of notable buying lately. Powell more or less asking for more money or fiscal stimulus wasn't likely so he could prop up the market more. What's interesting is that none of the Fed buying of securities has started in terms of corporate buying, main street lending, etc. They've reopened the credit markets so that is good but I suspect the market is still pricing in the effect once these programs take effect (HYG still trading 1.8% above NAV, which is historically high but not the 3% plus from when it was announced). And the Fed has actually slowed QE down to $40bn / week in Treasuries from $50 bn last week and a peak of $75bn. 

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3 hours ago, The Lost One said:

I wouldn't sell BRK-b

Ok. I mean, I don't really know who you are or why, but that's all I needed to keep it. 

(Not trying to be snarky, I really mean it. I don't particularly want to sell it)

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3 hours ago, TripItUp said:

I'll be buying them on the dip...but agree the dip is coming.

Yeah, that's kind of the thing. It's my my Roth IRA which won't have any more money going in for 246 days, so unless I sell something else I'm not adding in that account. Could add in my regular brokerage, maybe.

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On MSNBC (save it) earlier, a guy from Emory University who ran part of the remdesivir trials stated that the combo trial would be with an IL-6 inhibitor, which is unfortunate for us CYDY longs. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, I kinda had my hopes up on that one.

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19 minutes ago, The Lost One said:

Beyond folks in the know on here recommending that it not only be a hold but a buy as well, I have a couple sources (1 paid) that I use to research stocks and they also highly recommended BRK-B. 

Beyond that, I'm a nobody, just a school teacher from Jersey. 

It’s been underperforming for a while. My concern is that is to big to be nimble in the market 

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2 hours ago, Whyatt said:

I appreciate the reply Chet. While I haven’t viewed the whole presentation from Friday l do see they presented more granular information in other slides.

I did see a discrepancy in that the critical patients in the posted “10 extubated” vs. the presented “10 extubated or improving”. 

Since the start, I have attempted to add another point of view on the CYDY discussion to this thread. It’s become clear to me that the group here doesn’t find much value in that. That’s fine by me, it’s less effort to read vs. post.

Good luck to the CYDY longs.

Please continue. It's always good to hear all sides. 

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51 minutes ago, djmich said:

I swear when this is all done there is going to be a Netflix series.  COVID-King, starring Dr Nader Exotic.

https://medicalnewsfirst.com/anatomy-of-cytodyns-ceo-financing-selfless-act-to-save-countless-lives/

 

Wow, thanks for sharing. That explains a lot. I guess I'll be keeping all shares, and trying to practice patience during next week's short attack.

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2 hours ago, Whyatt said:

I appreciate the reply Chet. While I haven’t viewed the whole presentation from Friday l do see they presented more granular information in other slides.

I did see a discrepancy in that the critical patients in the posted “10 extubated” vs. the presented “10 extubated or improving”. 

Since the start, I have attempted to add another point of view on the CYDY discussion to this thread. It’s become clear to me that the group here doesn’t find much value in that. That’s fine by me, it’s less effort to read vs. post.

Good luck to the CYDY longs.

I was skeptical at first, but now appreciate your comments.  I think you ask the right questions and help us all to better understand what's going on here. Stick around.

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6 hours ago, -OZ- said:

I'm starting to think it's time to sell the BRK-B shares. keep the rest of the portfolio intact. 

I'm really not sure what to do with JETS. he'll sink it a bit just by people following. But (and I'm clearly not as smart as Warren) I still think the industry comes back alright.

Warren Buffett is washed up and done, he plays it too safe.  You can buy stock like Amazon and outperform Berkshire any day of the week.  I would only invest in Berkshire if I was interested in tbills.

Edited by gocats
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Coronavirus: Mum fighting triple cancer allowed to fly to USA despite travel ban

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/coronavirus-mum-fighting-triple-cancer-21968039

Sarah Wright, 33, is battling triple negative breast cancer but the clinical trials could give her more time with her nine-month-old baby girl Everleigh and husband Adam Wright.

She was accepted onto a trial for Leronlimab, a revolutionary American drug which rapidly fights tumour cells, earlier this month after her biopsy results proved it could be effective.

 

 

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New live youtube video from Dr Yo.  Go to the 5:53 point to hear about lironlimab and RANTES.  He talks about leronlimab at various other points in the video.  He has read the pre-print version of Patterson's paper.  He says it will be in Nature this week.  He says the data is mind-blowing.  He says that Patterson deserves a Nobel Prize.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1hMrTOPLQs&feature=push-lbss&attr_tag=Ju3W2Dk4nZb1HpJ-%3A6

Edited by Don Hutson
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