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20 minutes ago, siffoin said:

$GYPR - Get Yer Popcorn Ready.  See my post regarding that position back from February.  Again - nearly all of you shouyd ignore it.

I know you’re being coy, but assuming you are saying that a downturn is coming as in February?

I have a decent amount of cash on the sideline and while I like where I am overall is there a good hedge that you like rather than selling everything?

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11 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I know you’re being coy, but assuming you are saying that a downturn is coming as in February?

I have a decent amount of cash on the sideline and while I like where I am overall is there a good hedge that you like rather than selling everything?

Thinking maybe gold/silver - CEF or other etf.

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44 minutes ago, Todem said:

Anyway. So far we are getting the slow bleed stairs on the way down type of selling. I am leary of the machines/algorithm type of violent trading as well and all it takes is a breach of a level and off they go. The machines take over short term and we get a violent rip down. 

Hopefully we stay in the more measured slow burn down so we can pick accordingly and not start up fear and anxiety again.

I mean a violent rip down would be a nice opportunity. The slow bleeds seem worse. Two steps down, one step up, or more likely two steps down for 10 steps, then back up 6 steps. Guess it's a market makers dream market. 

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33 minutes ago, siffoin said:

$GYPR - Get Yer Popcorn Ready.  See my post regarding that position back from February.  Again - nearly all of you shouyd ignore it.

IF one wanted to act on this... would TAIL be another viable hedge/play? 
 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Two observations: 

1) the production value of that intro reminds me of something you get on Fiverr for $10 

2) I REALLY wish he'd stop looking up and darting around... reads as very shifty and like he's kinda pulling stuff out of his ### 

That said, I'm in Long. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

He addresses stock sale around 3:50

I suppose that makes sense. Still a bit weird but guess that is microcap world. Just seems crazy that this was the only way they could raise funds for something that has more than tripled lately. 

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1 minute ago, [icon] said:

Two observations: 

1) the production value of that intro reminds me of something you get on Fiverr for $10 

2) I REALLY wish he'd stop looking up and darting around... reads as very shifty and like he's kinda pulling stuff out of his ### 

That said, I'm in Long. 

He's not a great face of the company from a communication standpoint. That said, I'm not going to bag on the guy if he's willing to put his company and shareholders first.

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7 minutes ago, sporthenry said:

I mean a violent rip down would be a nice opportunity. The slow bleeds seem worse. Two steps down, one step up, or more likely two steps down for 10 steps, then back up 6 steps. Guess it's a market makers dream market. 

crash recoveries can take a long, long time. Be careful what you wish for

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1 minute ago, Bob Sacamano said:

He's not a great face of the company from a communication standpoint. That said, I'm not going to bag on the guy if he's willing to put his company and shareholders first.

Absolutely not bagging on him, just pointing out a wishlist of communications faux-pas that I wish he'd work on. :) 

I :wub: Nadir and CYDY.       .....And Chet. I :wub: Chet too. 

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He isn't the best speaker but this interview is great in terms of him explaining why the trade executed.  He took a big tax hit doing this but took one for the team to help ensure the company has funds enough to keep production from falling off.  Had he just sold 10M worth of shares it would have had more of an effect on the market.   This shouldn't look as bad and it seems the reasons are legitimate.  Good for him.  

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4 minutes ago, lod001 said:

I just figured out what TVIX reminds me of. Placing a bet on the box cars or snake eyes. The odds stink but the payoff is so tempting and it's 'due'.

Exactly what it is to a tee. A horn bet like that. Perfect analogy!

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14 minutes ago, [icon] said:

IF one wanted to act on this... would TAIL be another viable hedge/play? 
 

$TAIL was AWESOME back in Feb.  I mean just a near perfect setup.  I don't think you'll get as much juice now.  Is an Emini contract doable?  What about a Micro-Emini.  I think those are available on major brokerages (but not sure 100%).

Again.  99.9999999999999% of you guys should just do what you do.  Over the past 5-6 weeks, I've come to the conclusion, my philosophy is quite different from most.  I enjoy reading what you guys do however.

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3 minutes ago, siffoin said:

$TAIL was AWESOME back in Feb.  I mean just a near perfect setup.  I don't think you'll get as much juice now.  Is an Emini contract doable?  What about a Micro-Emini.  I think those are available on major brokerages (but not sure 100%).

Again.  99.9999999999999% of you guys should just do what you do.  Over the past 5-6 weeks, I've come to the conclusion, my philosophy is quite different from most.  I enjoy reading what you guys do however.

I can't unsee.

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19 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

crash recoveries can take a long, long time. Be careful what you wish for

Fair, I mean we did just have the largest crash in history followed by the quickest bounce. I hear ya though. Just feel like this long grind down is what drives to ultimate capitulation because investors just get tired of it. Selling at new lows and buying at lower highs. 

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6 minutes ago, siffoin said:

$TAIL was AWESOME back in Feb.  I mean just a near perfect setup.  I don't think you'll get as much juice now.  Is an Emini contract doable?  What about a Micro-Emini.  I think those are available on major brokerages (but not sure 100%).

Again.  99.9999999999999% of you guys should just do what you do.  Over the past 5-6 weeks, I've come to the conclusion, my philosophy is quite different from most.  I enjoy reading what you guys do however.

Would you have any interest in posting here what it is you are doing so those interested could learn?

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5 minutes ago, siffoin said:

$TAIL was AWESOME back in Feb.  I mean just a near perfect setup.  I don't think you'll get as much juice now.  Is an Emini contract doable?  What about a Micro-Emini.  I think those are available on major brokerages (but not sure 100%).

Again.  99.9999999999999% of you guys should just do what you do.  Over the past 5-6 weeks, I've come to the conclusion, my philosophy is quite different from most.  I enjoy reading what you guys do however.

Unfortunately, Tail isn't available on some major platforms, including what I trade on (Merrill Edge). I wish they offered something similar. I'd really like to get back into some precious metals for long term, but not sure if now is the time. 

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33 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Anybody else reading "Large scale genomic analysis of 3067 SARS-CoV-2 genomes reveals a clonal geodistribution and a rich genetic variations of hotspots mutations"?

I just tried to. What was your interpretation? I mean, I have my own because I totally understood every single word and wasn't at all completely confused. I'm just interested in your take. :oldunsure:

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51 minutes ago, lod001 said:

I just figured out what TVIX reminds me of. Placing a bet on the box cars or snake eyes. The odds stink but the payoff is so tempting and it's 'due'.

Not bad, but there is no "due" affecting the dice bet.

I like to think that I follow the market clsoely enough to have some idea of direction.

SO instead of 36-3. I think I can get it down to 20-1, but keep the higher odds potential. That makes it (for me) a good bet, even tho I usually lose.

Same with trifectas and parlays

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1 minute ago, cosjobs said:

Not bad, but there is no "due" affecting the dice bet.

I like to think that I follow the market clsoely enough to have some idea of direction.

SO instead of 36-3. I think I can get it down to 20-1, but keep the higher odds potential. That makes it (for me) a good bet, even tho I usually lose.

Same with trifectas and parlays

Correct. Odds are the same every roll of the dice but people think if it hasn't come up for 36 rolls, it's 'due'. Guilty as charged myself but not on the horn bets. I do shake my head when the role is 2, 3, 3, 6, 3, 12 and freaks on the other side of the craps bubble machine are going nuts.

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29 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Correct. Odds are the same every roll of the dice but people think if it hasn't come up for 36 rolls, it's 'due'. Guilty as charged myself but not on the horn bets. I do shake my head when the role is 2, 3, 3, 6, 3, 12 and freaks on the other side of the craps bubble machine are going nuts.

all I do is play the Come line and back the numbers with full odds. 

Craps is nothing but a streaks game, but I enjoy it at close to even odds, hoping those are the numbers that go streaky

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7 minutes ago, kevzilla said:

I can hang in TVIX for a while yet. I'm a big boy who is aware of its limitations, but it is doing a job right now.

Are you down?

The metrics look good: Gold up, high bond volume, and the S&P can't break 2825

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23 minutes ago, Random said:

Would you have any interest in posting here what it is you are doing so those interested could learn?

My opinions and decision are based primarily on trend.  I've written about this many many times in here.  But in short - Trends exist in multiple time-frames.  There can be conflict between those.  For example $XYZ could be bearish on a minute chart; bullish on an hourly chart; bearish on a daily chart; and bullish on a monthly chart.  The longer the time-frame the more weight the trend carries.  Within the trend there are identifiable targets for $XYZ based off of levels of support (floor) and resistance (ceiling).  At the moment of a change in trend - is where trends are most vulnerable to a whipsaw.  Long term trends take months to resolve and "flip".  Often in the process of changing trend - there will be a violent move against the current trend (a massive move down in a bull trend)...afterwards there is a violent move back towards and in alignment with that trend.

It is also possible to measure "value" from trend analysis.  In fact the original $GYPR post was just about that.  The market was so over-valued (in fact never more over-valued in modern times) that a natural correction was going to take place.  The market had a similar setup in the Fall of 2018 for reference.  IMO the market was going to correct back to a level of "some" value regardless of the global pandemic.  Such is the natural ebb and flow of market trends.

To be fair - I also look at cycles in analysis.  There is some voodoo to that for sure.  It is a small part of my analysis.  For me cycles present "windows of opportunity" and are uncannily accurate enough of the time not to be ignored.

When I look for stocks or etfs to evaluate I also use common fundamental analysis.  To me fundamentals tell you what to buy and technicals (trend) tells you when to buy it.  It is a systematic approach.  It can be slow.  There is a lot of sitting around doing a lot of nothing - just waiting for the setup.  The approach is rules-based.

Personally, I'm underwhelmed by anyone who lives by the notion of "you can't time the market."  Probably in the same way of someone telling a meteorologist that "you can't predict the weather."  There are technical tools available to everyone that can and do provide an edge.  If you are interested in the weather it would be foolish to ignore modern tools of meteorology and understand the tools today are vastly different from the Farmers Almanac.  The same is true for technical analysis for the stock market.

If you happen to think my pov is poppycock.  You are a "you can't time the market" and "it's time in the market not timing the market"..that's fine by me. But in that case you should be 100% invested all of the time, and if you're not to me that would signal you have a conflict in your investing belief system.  Conflicts in your investing philosophy are dangerous.  

With all of that said - I got no problem with anyone doing anything.  I love this thread just for this purpose.  I guess what I'm saying is I have good intentions and best regards for all of you though many times I think to myself - WTF are these guys doing.  Make no mistake - a significant portion of my job carries tremendous risk with the types of instruments I trade.  However, that risk is measured.  My concern is that some of you take on a level of extraordinary unmeasured risk - the consequences of which you may not fully understand - and time doesn't necessarily cure all bad decisions.

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15 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Are you down?

The metrics look good: Gold up, high bond volume, and the S&P can't break 2825

No, I'm in at $201. Like I said, I can hang for a while. It's offsetting losses in my small S&P and EM positions, while not remotely covering my CYDY losses. But those "losses" are on shares I didn't pay for, so they don't count. :whistle:

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7 minutes ago, siffoin said:

My opinions and decision are based primarily on trend.  I've written about this many many times in here.  But in short - Trends exist in multiple time-frames.  There can be conflict between those.  For example $XYZ could be bearish on a minute chart; bullish on an hourly chart; bearish on a daily chart; and bullish on a monthly chart.  The longer the time-frame the more weight the trend carries.  Within the trend there are identifiable targets for $XYZ based off of levels of support (floor) and resistance (ceiling).  At the moment of a change in trend - is where trends are most vulnerable to a whipsaw.  Long term trends take months to resolve and "flip".  Often in the process of changing trend - there will be a violent move against the current trend (a massive move down in a bull trend)...afterwards there is a violent move back towards and in alignment with that trend.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but you pretty much do what Adam Mancini does, right?

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28 minutes ago, siffoin said:

My opinions and decision are based primarily on trend.  I've written about this many many times in here.  But in short - Trends exist in multiple time-frames.  There can be conflict between those.  For example $XYZ could be bearish on a minute chart; bullish on an hourly chart; bearish on a daily chart; and bullish on a monthly chart.  The longer the time-frame the more weight the trend carries.  Within the trend there are identifiable targets for $XYZ based off of levels of support (floor) and resistance (ceiling).  At the moment of a change in trend - is where trends are most vulnerable to a whipsaw.  Long term trends take months to resolve and "flip".  Often in the process of changing trend - there will be a violent move against the current trend (a massive move down in a bull trend)...afterwards there is a violent move back towards and in alignment with that trend.

My 'system', if you want to call it that, is very simple. I track SPY 8-month moving average, both EMA and SMA. When the monthly close switches from above to below on both, I switch from SPY to IEF. When the monthly close goes back above on both, I switch from IEF to SPY. It's boring but simple and it beats a simple buy-and-hold on the SPY.

Occasionally I'll dabble with fun money on short-term trades but my long-term stuff uses the above.

Edit: forgot to note that I stole this from @siffoin in a post he made at some point in the last year or two. 

Edited by Blue Dot Orange Dot
giving credit where it's due
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28 minutes ago, kevzilla said:

No, I'm in at $201. Like I said, I can hang for a while. It's offsetting losses in my small S&P and EM positions, while not remotely covering my CYDY losses. But those "losses" are on shares I didn't pay for, so they don't count. :whistle:

Yeah, this is shaping up as my worst day of the year, thanks to CYDY and to a lesser degree TVIX (so glad I offloaded some pre-market).

But its house money and still higher than I was most of last week, so no panic.

 

 

 

yet

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3 hours ago, siffoin said:

$GYPR - Get Yer Popcorn Ready.  See my post regarding that position back from February.  Again - nearly all of you shouyd ignore it.

I look at at that and thought "why do we have a ticker based on Ronald Reagan?"

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Dumped 75% of TVIX holdings

stupid market

 

it should have known to tank after Buffett killed the airlines and Trump seems determined to start a trade war.

 

I saw ROKU streaking up this morning. I think it might be a canary in the coal mine for this market.

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20 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

Dumped 75% of TVIX holdings

stupid market

 

it should have known to tank after Buffett killed the airlines and Trump seems determined to start a trade war.

 

I saw ROKU streaking up this morning. I think it might be a canary in the coal mine for this market.

ROKU was one of my better buys during March. Had been watching for a while and didn’t quite pull the trigger back last year when it touched $100 in October. Bought some in the $90s and said F it I’ll buy more at $65 a week later. If I had just plowed all my cash into the stocks I bought that bottom week (16th-23rd most stocks I watched bottomed in there), I’d be fat and happy and wouldn’t worry about another leg down because those were bargain prices on some solid growing companies. On the one hand I don’t want to lose real money, but on the other I’d be happy to have another chance to buy in close to those levels.

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4 minutes ago, stbugs said:

ROKU was one of my better buys during March. Had been watching for a while and didn’t quite pull the trigger back last year when it touched $100 in October. Bought some in the $90s and said F it I’ll buy more at $65 a week later. If I had just plowed all my cash into the stocks I bought that bottom week (16th-23rd most stocks I watched bottomed in there), I’d be fat and happy and wouldn’t worry about another leg down because those were bargain prices on some solid growing companies. On the one hand I don’t want to lose real money, but on the other I’d be happy to have another chance to buy in close to those levels.

I don't think you will see under 100 for a long time. Its more likely to go to 1000 again, imo

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8 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I don't think you will see under 100 for a long time. Its more likely to go to 1000 again, imo

I’m good on Roku, I bought in on it. There were others that I wish I bought more of like SHOP at $300 or HUBS at $90. Even though I post a decent amount, it’s really been only a year since I bought my first individual stock outside of prior 401ks and Amazon (via grants). I was definitely skittish to buy too much because of all the talk of falling off a cliff. For instance, I bought 50 ROKU at $96 and only 30 at $65. Same with FSLY, bought 317 before the drop at $19 and 100 more at $11 during the drop. Lesson learned for the next collapse!

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3 hours ago, sporthenry said:

HTZ is supposed to have until today to get a waiver from lenders in regards to its missed lease payment. Unsecured bonds trading at 15 cents on the dollar. Have to expect a move one way or the other this week. 

From WSJ: 

* Hertz Hires Additional Restructuring Adviser for Planned Bankruptcy, Sources Say

*Hertz Taps FTI Consulting for Bankruptcy Preparations, Sources Say

*FTI Hired Alongside Investment Bank Moelis for Hertz Bankruptcy, Sources Say

*Hertz Term Lenders Hire Restructuring Lawyers and Bankers, Sources Say

Shouldn't have hedged my puts with some OTM calls. 

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