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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)

Jefferson the Caregiver said:
That's really not out of the question.   I don't think you need to be in any rush if you have a better price in mind.   You can give this one some time, parks aren't reopening anytime soon and even when they do, not sure how far people are going to be travelling to get there.  
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And is there any scenario where Disney parks aren't closed again?  Eliminating large gatherings of people is by far the most important tactic in fighting Coronavirus.  Our society's anti-Covid strategies have been imperfect so far but people, scientists, and government officials are getting more educated on the topic.  Drastic measures to stop the spread of Covid will be taken again in our future.  The measures won't be the same as March/April of 2020.  But eliminating large gatherings like theme parks will be a major part of the strategy.  Disney Coronavirus spread might literally be the worst spreader in the US because it is a massive super spreader event occurring daily where thousands of people will bring back the virus to every corner of America within 3-5 days.  Disney stock price would hit rock bottom if its parks are closed again for an extended period.  Theme parks might even at some point get closed indefinitely until there is a vaccine.  Disney is on a list of stocks that I will be looking at when there is a light at the end of the Covid tunnel.

 
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Scorpio Tankers (STNG) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.82 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.50 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.31 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 64%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this shipping company would post earnings of $0.58 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.23, delivering a surprise of -60.34%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times.

Scorpio Tankers, which belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Shipping industry, posted revenues of $249.95 million for the quarter ended March 2020, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.91%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $195.83 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters.

The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call.
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Scorpio Tankers shares have lost about 46% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's decline of -11.2%.

What's Next for Scorpio Tankers?

While Scorpio Tankers has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock?

There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately.

Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions.

Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Scorpio Tankers was favorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $1.48 on $277.93 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $4.17 on $1.08 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year.

Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Transportation - Shipping is currently in the top 24% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
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Jefferson the Caregiver said:
That's really not out of the question.   I don't think you need to be in any rush if you have a better price in mind.   You can give this one some time, parks aren't reopening anytime soon and even when they do, not sure how far people are going to be travelling to get there.  
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Or if they can enter if one of the kids have a temperature or how much fun wearing a mask all day in the heat. 

 
cosjobs said:
I am reestablishing a position in BABA. Chinese economy is way ahead of ours (pandemic-wise) and the consumers are buying. A P/E of 20.59 on this growth stock is really good.
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Is there much room to run though?  Its not terribly off from all time highs.  Feels like the global economy is still teetering at any moment.  
 

i dunno.  I just don’t feel the same confidence in our communist friends. 

 
Tankers.. the name checks out given what the stock is doing.  In the new world it looks like you need to invest in companies that are losing money.  Stock goes up. Good quarter, stock tank.  Bizaaro world.  

 
Sputnikv8 said:
Is there much room to run though?  Its not terribly off from all time highs.  Feels like the global economy is still teetering at any moment.  
 

i dunno.  I just don’t feel the same confidence in our communist friends. 
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No confidence issues imo. Its very similar to AMZN and is often referred to a the Chinese Amazon. Firmly entrenched, the online beast everyone else tries to compete with. 
I'm not looking for a triple or anything huge. I'm going to safe value and others will be /are doing the same.

 
cosjobs said:
Or if they can enter if one of the kids have a temperature or how much fun wearing a mask all day in the heat. 
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I am not sure how any business that requires mass gatherings of people will make money for maybe the next 6 months to maybe more than a year.  Especially places where a good chunk of their patrons have to fly to get there.  

Obviously Disney has other revenue, but the theme park portion is shot for a while to come even if they try some sort of modified reopening.

I missed out on Dave and Busters (PLAY) when it was like 5 or 6.  Back down at 11 right now.  52 week high in the 50s.  A place like that I just dont know.  Everything there has hands all over it all day.  Not sure if it reopens when other things do.

Places like these are huge wildcards force while, but the touristy spots are screwed for a long long time IMO

 
ghostguy123 said:
So DFS was just up a couple percent, now down 4 percent??

Cos talking about upping tvix.........something going on?
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I've been keeping holdings in dfs and syf.  Been buying and selling back and forth on days where the percentage gains/losses between them diverge significantly.  This has worked out pretty well for me.

 
sporthenry said:
Would assume ADP numbers. Would seem especially bad for consumers expected to pay their credit card bills. 🤷‍♂️
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Yeah, that's the risk (which I think is already factored in)

DIS - 90% drop in profit (which they weren't even closed the full time) up 1.5%

 
BassNBrew said:
Tankers taking a dump again.  
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Yeah, this is becoming my worst nightmare. Terrible price action. Bad news things go down. Good news, things flat to down. We've even seen the contango trade go our way today. Perhaps they need to update day rates based on that? Maybe expectations were that high. I mean the downside is supported by NAV which we seem at or below plus printing money. But seems this trade is almost like the anti-reopening. 

 
cosjobs said:
Could be a good time. Its good that the market seems a bit convulsive this morning. Don't like that Gold is down. Unsure how bond market is doing (we want it up).

Could go either way, If it falls to the 180s I'll probably reduce my position again. 
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Bonds are puking on Siegel saying the 40-year bond market rally is over. With treasuries this low, it does seem that some of the correlations have to break. 

 
sporthenry said:
Bonds are puking on Siegel saying the 40-year bond market rally is over. With treasuries this low, it does seem that some of the correlations have to break. 
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Yes, When initially formulating the VIX, bond sales indicated a flight to safety. Nowadays, not so much. There is no safety right now. 

 
sporthenry said:
Yeah, this is becoming my worst nightmare. Terrible price action. Bad news things go down. Good news, things flat to down. We've even seen the contango trade go our way today. Perhaps they need to update day rates based on that? Maybe expectations were that high. I mean the downside is supported by NAV which we seem at or below plus printing money. But seems this trade is almost like the anti-reopening. 
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The bid ask spread seems to be fairly wide on some of these.  I've been seeing 7 cent spreads at times.

Did you happen to see the dividend (if any) for STNG?

 
BassNBrew said:
The bid ask spread seems to be fairly wide on some of these.  I've been seeing 7 cent spreads at times.

Did you happen to see the dividend (if any) for STNG?
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$0.10 which is flat sequentially. But they're in deleveraging mode. That dividend is only ~$5mn per quarter but they repaid ~$110mn in debt in the quarter. Their FCF was impacted by the timing of receivables. $70mn in AR hit their account in April. Not sure if that is impacting things. These guys just can't seem to get out of their own way. 

FWIW- The DHT CEO said this on the call "storage play has not peaked." 

 
Sputnikv8 said:
Is there much room to run though?  Its not terribly off from all time highs.  Feels like the global economy is still teetering at any moment.  
 

i dunno.  I just don’t feel the same confidence in our communist friends. 
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BABA is a tough one. Numbers are great....if real. If BABA were an American company with those numbers it would be close to a 1000. I owned it for 3.5 years and finally threw in the towel. It had it's ups and downs, but felt range bound the whole time. Made 17% but still felt there were better plays that would of yielded a better return. On paper, BABA has always seemed like slam dunk though. 

 
ericttspikes said:
BABA is a tough one. Numbers are great....if real. If BABA were an American company with those numbers it would be close to a 1000. I owned it for 3.5 years and finally threw in the towel. It had it's ups and downs, but felt range bound the whole time. Made 17% but still felt there were better plays that would of yielded a better return. On paper, BABA has always seemed like slam dunk though. 
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Yeah, I've been in and out quite a bit over the years. At the very least, it seems strong, stable and relatively safe. And always that potential ceiling it never comes close to.

 
sporthenry said:
Yeah, this is becoming my worst nightmare. Terrible price action. Bad news things go down. Good news, things flat to down. We've even seen the contango trade go our way today. Perhaps they need to update day rates based on that? Maybe expectations were that high. I mean the downside is supported by NAV which we seem at or below plus printing money. But seems this trade is almost like the anti-reopening. 
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Like you said, it just seems like whenever the market goes up the tankers get pummeled, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.  I'm tempted to add more here because it seems like it has to go up in the medium term, but the action over the last week is really making me question if there is something I'm totally missing.

 
Dr_Zaius said:
Like you said, it just seems like whenever the market goes up the tankers get pummeled, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me.  I'm tempted to add more here because it seems like it has to go up in the medium term, but the action over the last week is really making me question if there is something I'm totally missing.
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Added more STNG this morning. I don't pretend to understand the market, but at a certain point hoping "making oodles of money" gets reflected in the stock price. 

 
Exited 1/2 of DIS position at 104ish (Cost basis 100.50ish
Working on Exiting BLMN / DFS and possibly PEO on next uptick. 

 
[icon] said:
Exited 1/2 of DIS position at 104ish (Cost basis 100.50ish
Working on Exiting BLMN / DFS and possibly PEO on next uptick. 
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I went in around the same spot you did on BLMN and exited this morning at 9.83.  Trying my hand at learning the chart thing and based on what I'm seeing, BLMN is maybe a mixed bag.  Sort of paralized atm.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
Why BLMN and DFS?  Just curious

Also, you planning to go all in on lebroninthemob?
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I just don't like the overall market picture. BLMN was a short play anyway... Buy low sell a bit higher. 

DFS, just making me nervous when the other shoe drops. Mostly locking in gains before they evaporate. 

I'm comfortable with my CYDY exposure at this point. Less than many in here but a good enough percentage of my Rollover IRA I use for trading. :)

 
skycriesmary said:
Fro...wait.😵
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If I had not sworn off tankers, I would consider this a buying opportunity. But tankers in this market is illogic2. #### the tankers, I'm out permanently. I've lost on all but one trade and that one was like a couple hundred dollars.

 
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Random said:
I went in around the same spot you did on BLMN and exited this morning at 9.83.  Trying my hand at learning the chart thing and based on what I'm seeing, BLMN is maybe a mixed bag.  Sort of paralized atm.  
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When I am waiting for a bump to dump, I usually go ahead and dump half in case the bump never comes.

 
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