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Footballguy
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Stock Thread (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
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Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The amount of FOMO going on right now is truly at epic proportions. How does that end well? I’m sticking with my DCA strategy, but it is absolutely nuts to watch in real time.
Jayrok
Footballguy
Random
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The job numbers have been even worse than the awful numbers expected. Your first paragraph and last basically contradict each other.
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If I recall, I read an article a few weeks back that said if you see buying at end of day, it's institutional. Well, watching the past few days, the opposite has been happening. Just wondering if they are selling along with the day traders closing their positions. 4 of the last 5 days have ended closing with a selloff.
lakerstan
Footballguy
I have a novice question if anyone cares to comment:
I'm not a stock market player. I put money in my 401k, into index funds mostly. With COVID, I am now working from home, have disposable income and have a bit of boredom when things get slow for work. So I throw a few thousand into some stocks (DIS, COF and even a little in CYDY for the heck of it). I also maxed out my 401k thinking I will be buying lower.
Are there enough people out there like me that could be artificially propping up the market now, only to get out of the market when we return to our "normal" lives? i.e. if there are a million people like me, that could be an infusion of billions of dollars of new money into the market.
Apologies if this is a stupid question.
I'm not a stock market player. I put money in my 401k, into index funds mostly. With COVID, I am now working from home, have disposable income and have a bit of boredom when things get slow for work. So I throw a few thousand into some stocks (DIS, COF and even a little in CYDY for the heck of it). I also maxed out my 401k thinking I will be buying lower.
Are there enough people out there like me that could be artificially propping up the market now, only to get out of the market when we return to our "normal" lives? i.e. if there are a million people like me, that could be an infusion of billions of dollars of new money into the market.
Apologies if this is a stupid question.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Your money and others like you is a hot dog from a street vendor compared to what the Fed has done.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
eaganwildcats
Footballguy
Mentioned in a table here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0331-4/tables/1
As part of this article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0331-4
Dr. Patterson's paper not actually appearing I have to imagine is partially behind the price decrease. Saw a reasonable amount of Twitter chatter it "was" coming out this Thursday.
As part of this article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0331-4
Dr. Patterson's paper not actually appearing I have to imagine is partially behind the price decrease. Saw a reasonable amount of Twitter chatter it "was" coming out this Thursday.
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Insoxicated
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
Yes but if your local and regional players get wiped out while the national companies are able to survive, who gets the dollars that consumers are able or willing to spend?
siffoin
Footballguy
This might be of interest too:for later. Is there an easy way to set up this monthly chart with 8 period Moving Average?
A Century of Evidence on Trend Following Investing
Don Hutson
Footballguy
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Maybe Leronlimab can be the 21st century Tylenol 
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
We need to buy everyone in this thread a "Stonks Go Up" t-shirt that they can point to after reading bad economic news.
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ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
It's not that they don't matter. It's that they may be priced in. If someone who does this for a living analyzed unemployment numbers at the beginning of March and said, I bet there are 40 million people unemployed by May, they placed a very low value at that time on the market. When we get to the May unemployment numbers and it's "only" 33.5 million, they raise their value on the market and equities within the market.Sold to get ~ 25% cash position a month ago, fearing the jobs data would result in a significant pullback and thus buying opportunity. I now feel extremely stupid for believing that jobs matter to Wall Street,
dkp993
Footballguy
I’ve been around here a long time but I still don’t understand what this pointing to the shirt emoji means.STONKS GO UP
LOVE IT!!
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
So I’m new at this but don’t plan on it as anything more than a hobby I guess and if I make a few bucks perfect. I put in $100 in Robinhood. (penn, draft kings, etc) to start. Any low dollar stocks anyone likes or any tips if I’m just gonna throw in $100 here and there and grab a few stocks? Basically another place of income to store with some risk/reward
NREC34
Footballguy
Yep. It’s crashing again and will make new lows.
Has anyone ever won both legs of the stock contest? Asking for a friend.
NREC34
Footballguy
I grabbed a few DHT. Let’s go tankers!I am in:
EURN
DHT
STNG
FRO
LPG
Not planning to capitulate though
You also have to remember that ~20% of the SP 500 are just FAANG companies. Hard to make the case high unemployment from non-essential service industry workers is really going to impact them all too much.Sold to get ~ 25% cash position a month ago, fearing the jobs data would result in a significant pullback and thus buying opportunity. I now feel extremely stupid for believing that jobs matter to Wall Street,
chet
Footballguy
Scientific papers must be peer reviewed before they are published. That means three objective experts in the field of the paper must review the paper in detail to ensure that the methods and conclusions are valid. Normally, it can take months before a paper goes into peer review but Dr. Patterson's paper was accepted for peer review within days of submission because of its importance. Many have posted links to the pre print (the same paper that is being peer reviewed) but it will likely be a couple of weeks before the paper is published. Also, the vast majority of papers receive comments or questions that the author must address before publication. I am sure the authors are working on answering potential questions as we speak.
adonis
Footballguy
Anyone care to venture how much is baked into the market prices currently regarding a successful re-opening of the economy starting in a week or so?
As in, are the valuations currently based on a belief that we will be able to more or less successfully reopen the economy/society and see a rapid return to normal?
As in, are the valuations currently based on a belief that we will be able to more or less successfully reopen the economy/society and see a rapid return to normal?
beef
Footballguy
Add in another 20% of the S&P being made up of other Tech companies too? Tech is in, bigger and better than ever.
sporthenry
Footballguy
At this point, I don't think the market cares very much about these numbers now. An extra 500k or 1 million jobs are just a rounding error. The market is now betting on the rebound so they seem to expect that most of those jobs will come back.
It's obviously naive to say, job losses = market down. I think for most, it's the dislocation between the market and the economy. 33mn+ people filing for unemployment. Unemployment likely to be in the 15-20% range. Nasdaq positive for the year. SPY only down 11%. That is what I still struggle with.
Yes, the stock market is not the economy and yes, the stock market is more forward looking than the economy. Sure, you don't want to fight the Fed. Yes, historically buying those dips has proven smart. But seems like the market is turning these statements on their head to say that the economy doesn't matter to the stocks. That you should invest with the Fed, etc.
When you overlay technicals from Mancini, seems like we're going to get consolidation and some potential for near-term upside until the reopening economy numbers come in and a potential second wave in the fall. Know I've said it before but at some point, the market and the economy will meet. The Fed only cares about the stocks on the periphery. I just can't imagine they'll continue to do the same thing if the economy struggles and the stocks stay up. I could envision a scenario where they pull the rug from underneath the market too. Yes, they'll overshoot their target on inflation if they can but if you get a v-shaped recovery, you won't get any Fed stimulus. I wonder how much of the $2.3T they'll invest now. They essentially restarted credit with just the threat of buying so why would they buy now?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Wall Street jobs matter to Wall Street.Sold to get ~ 25% cash position a month ago, fearing the jobs data would result in a significant pullback and thus buying opportunity. I now feel extremely stupid for believing that jobs matter to Wall Street,
eaganwildcats
Footballguy
Yeap - I was just commenting on the perception that may or may not have existed in the general market but definitely existed when I searched "$CYDY" on twitter
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
My CYDY situation:
My independent research consists of an article on Inverse.com about Charlie Sheen, that's it. All of my material reading comes from Chet on the internet along with postings on a FF website. I pay less attention to CYDY than almost anything I own or intend on owning. I can't pronounce the name of their drug or the name of what they're branding it as. I own $20k of this
If it really does explode over the next few years (and I have no intention of selling basically until Chet says so), one day, when I make my sale, I think I'm gonna owe Chet from the internet a nice bottle of Pappy 15 or 23.
My independent research consists of an article on Inverse.com about Charlie Sheen, that's it. All of my material reading comes from Chet on the internet along with postings on a FF website. I pay less attention to CYDY than almost anything I own or intend on owning. I can't pronounce the name of their drug or the name of what they're branding it as. I own $20k of this
If it really does explode over the next few years (and I have no intention of selling basically until Chet says so), one day, when I make my sale, I think I'm gonna owe Chet from the internet a nice bottle of Pappy 15 or 23.
adonis
Footballguy
Also, let's say the stock market is at 100 as a whole with 3% unemployment.
Let's say something happens that causes unemployment to go to 20% in a few months, and that it only ends up dropping the market to 90%.
We've got to assume that at some level of unemployment, the markets value will suffer, regardless of whether it expects that % or not.
I can't see how a market expecting 20% unemployment can maintain close to the same total valuation as it did when unemployment was 4%. How is this even possible, considering the entire global economy is being affected, if there aren't some other more fundamental assumptions at work that cause the unemployment rate to not drive market valuations.
Expectations like the economy locally and worldwide will return to full force sufficiently quickly to only cause a small downturn in company values/consumer spending/dedt/foreclosures, etc. An expectation that the government will provide a backdrop against personal losses and corporate losses to a degree that the economic pain felt by temporarily reduced revenues will be minimized and then quickly replaced as people get back to work globally and nationally.
Jobber
Footballguy
Some years ago, a new thread popped up on FBG, started by a brand new account. He was peddling a shirt you could buy that talked about Fantasy Football in some manner or form. He said if you wear it around your buddies on a Sunday afternoon and the RB you drafted runs for 200 and 3 touches, you can just “point to the shirt”. Or any number of other successful draft moves you may have done.
The collective board made fun of him relentlessly and ran him out of town. And then Joe or someone created that custom emoji.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
One thing missing here is productivity would probably improve as companies get leaner, so unemployment and 100 might not line up on the other side. My productivity in the last month is through the roof.
chet
Footballguy
Yeah. That's unfortunate.Yeap - I was just commenting on the perception that may or may not have existed in the general market but definitely existed when I searched "$CYDY" on twitter
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I get a small chuckle whenever every single other asset I have is green on the day, and CYDY is red. Not big either way, and it works the other way too, but it's funny to see that be a better hedge than bonds.
Todem
Footballguy
NCLH on the ledge....starting at a potential bankruptcy. Stock is up almost 7% today.
This is a casino. Pure casino not trading on any fundamentals at all.
I am heavily considering taking some profits off the table and building more cash again to a 30-40% level. I simply hate what I am seeing in the market right now. No regard for the economic tsunami we are going to have and the fallout from this shutdown making its way into consumer demand. This is a serious artificial run like I have never seen. It is based on pure Fed Stimulus, hope and prayers. Not reality. And the problem is.....we cannot know what the reality is. We are flying blind. No guidance at all from any company. No one can sit here and say with a high degree of certainity what is going to happen over the next 12-18 months as a result of this shutdown. But each passing day we stay shutdown digs the hole deeper and deeper and soon the economic reality will meet with the market again.
Completely out of touch with reality right now.
I am grappling right now being such a long term bull, but at the same time my common sense is telling me......move some money to the sidelines here to mitigate some potential heavy downside in the short term.
I felt the 16th thru the 23rd was a great buying opportunity and we have some serious short terms gains we can just take right now. Build some more cash....and again mitigate volatility here. I am stunned how this market is behaving right now. It is quite frankly ludicrous right now and goes against all my fundamental bottom up approach. The market is valued like we are not going into recession.
Think about that.
This is a casino. Pure casino not trading on any fundamentals at all.
I am heavily considering taking some profits off the table and building more cash again to a 30-40% level. I simply hate what I am seeing in the market right now. No regard for the economic tsunami we are going to have and the fallout from this shutdown making its way into consumer demand. This is a serious artificial run like I have never seen. It is based on pure Fed Stimulus, hope and prayers. Not reality. And the problem is.....we cannot know what the reality is. We are flying blind. No guidance at all from any company. No one can sit here and say with a high degree of certainity what is going to happen over the next 12-18 months as a result of this shutdown. But each passing day we stay shutdown digs the hole deeper and deeper and soon the economic reality will meet with the market again.
Completely out of touch with reality right now.
I am grappling right now being such a long term bull, but at the same time my common sense is telling me......move some money to the sidelines here to mitigate some potential heavy downside in the short term.
I felt the 16th thru the 23rd was a great buying opportunity and we have some serious short terms gains we can just take right now. Build some more cash....and again mitigate volatility here. I am stunned how this market is behaving right now. It is quite frankly ludicrous right now and goes against all my fundamental bottom up approach. The market is valued like we are not going into recession.
Think about that.
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