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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)

Warrior said:
Lots of permabears limping back into the market lately with their tails between their legs despite being 100% sure "we haven't hit bottom yet!" , "we're about to crash!", etc. Very good sign for the market. 

At some point, they need to admit they completely missed the falling knife and were out during the quickest bounceback in history and they won't get another chance. Very good lesson for next time there's a sharp bear market down the line. 

Nobody in particular. There are a ton in this thread that repeat "its about to drop, I'm sure of it this time" over and over for weeks, hoping to eventually be right. Perhaps not this time. 

In another note, CYDY taking a hit this morning. You guys adding more? 
Click to expand...
Dot 

 
Steeler said:
What's the best free charting website for stocks?  I'm using yahoo finance at the moment but I can't figure out how to add the  8 month SMA and EMA.

I can add the 50 day and 200 day SMA but can't figure out how to add the EMA or the 8 month average.
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I've been posting about trend following for many many years here.  The common comment about trend following is that it would take hundreds upon hundreds of hour per year to be able to understand the charts.  My answer in these FBG I$PATS was to just demonstrate a very simple means of understanding the current price in relation to trend from a long term investors standpoint taking just a few minutes every month. Ie: Be aligned to the correct side of the market and long term you will come out ahead.  Ideally people would have been doing this for many years of this bull market run.  That way they would have a good understanding of it.  The work I do has slightly more complication than just a 8 SMA on a monthly chart.  But again...having a basic road map is better than just guessing.  I have stated many many times that a long term chart takes time for a trend to roll over from bull to bear (or bear to bull).  The market right now is exhibiting the common characteristics of such a roll.  Put another way: It is possible we are in that process now.  Most recently the market exhibited similar behavior in the last few months of 2018, but the trend never flipped.   Most of the time the trend just moves along and you feel pretty good about your wealth growing.  There are times when it is important to pay more attention.  There are times when preserving your gains is more important than growing them.

You may recall some of my simple rules:

1) NLAWTTAL (Never Let A Winner Turn To A Loser)

1b) The easiest way to retire with a large fortune from the stock market is not to lose a small fortune in the stock market.

 
siffoin said:
I've been posting about trend following for many many years here.  The common comment about trend following is that it would take hundreds upon hundreds of hour per year to be able to understand the charts.  My answer in these FBG I$PATS was to just demonstrate a very simple means of understanding the current price in relation to trend from a long term investors standpoint taking just a few minutes every month. Ie: Be aligned to the correct side of the market and long term you will come out ahead.  Ideally people would have been doing this for many years of this bull market run.  That way they would have a good understanding of it.  The work I do has slightly more complication than just a 8 SMA on a monthly chart.  But again...having a basic road map is better than just guessing.  I have stated many many times that a long term chart takes time for a trend to roll over from bull to bear (or bear to bull).  The market right now is exhibiting the common characteristics of such a roll.  Put another way: It is possible we are in that process now.  Most recently the market exhibited similar behavior in the last few months of 2018, but the trend never flipped.   Most of the time the trend just moves along and you feel pretty good about your wealth growing.  There are times when it is important to pay more attention.  There are times when preserving your gains is more important than growing them.

You may recall some of my simple rules:

1) NLAWTTAL (Never Let A Winner Turn To A Loser)

1b) The easiest way to retire with a large fortune from the stock market is not to lose a small fortune in the stock market.
Click to expand...
Is there any way you could tell us what we should see on a 8 sma monthly.  I'm looking at VTI and it appears to have moved below the 8ma in late Jan/early Feb and hasn't crossed back above since.  That doesn't sound like what you're saying.  What am I doing wrong?

 
Warrior said:
Lots of permabears limping back into the market lately with their tails between their legs despite being 100% sure "we haven't hit bottom yet!" , "we're about to crash!", etc. Very good sign for the market. 

At some point, they need to admit they completely missed the falling knife and were out during the quickest bounceback in history and they won't get another chance. Very good lesson for next time there's a sharp bear market down the line. 

Nobody in particular. There are a ton in this thread that repeat "its about to drop, I'm sure of it this time" over and over for weeks, hoping to eventually be right. Perhaps not this time. 

In another note, CYDY taking a hit this morning. You guys adding more? 
Click to expand...
Agree 100%.  Shortest recession in history.  If you were on vacation or on a cruise, you might not even know it happened.  That was a tough one.  Glad everything is back to normal now and that there is absolutely nothing standing in the economy's way of going full steam ahead from here on.  National debt is under control, dollar has nothing to be concerned about.  Everyone is making money!  What a great time to be alive.

STONKS GO UP!!11one!!

 
I don't know a lot about Culper Research, but there is a trend with them.  Start a short position, then post an article.  Not their first time doing this to a company, and this isn't their first attack on CYDY either.  

 
beef said:
I don't know a lot about Culper Research, but there is a trend with them.  Start a short position, then post an article.  Not their first time doing this to a company, and this isn't their first attack on CYDY either.  
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wtf

 
beef said:
I don't know a lot about Culper Research, but there is a trend with them.  Start a short position, then post an article.  Not their first time doing this to a company, and this isn't their first attack on CYDY either.  
Click to expand...
Yeah, not the first time and probably won't be the last.  There was one in February that didn't amount to much.  SP dropped almost .50 cents over a few days in early Feb, maybe around the same time that Culper piece was published.  Lots of positive news on the promise of the product since then in March when they discovered it works with some Covid patients.  Hasn't flinched much since then until the small drop this morning, which is now back up to around 2.90.  

 
Random said:
Agree 100%.  Shortest recession in history.  If you were on vacation or on a cruise, you might not even know it happened.  That was a tough one.  Glad everything is back to normal now and that there is absolutely nothing standing in the economy's way of going full steam ahead from here on.  National debt is under control, dollar has nothing to be concerned about.  Everyone is making money!  What a great time to be alive.

STONKS GO UP!!11one!!
Click to expand...
So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last
Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again

Altogether shout it now
There's no one
Who can doubt it now
So let's tell the world about it now
Happy days are here again

Your cares and troubles are gone
There'll be no more from now on
From now on

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So, let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy times
Happy nights
Happy days
Are here again!

 
lakerstan said:
There is something not mentioned here, and it could be meaningless, but the name above Cool Blue is Bruce Patterson.  Is he selling? 
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All of those guys are part of the stock exercises(cashless) that the CEO talked about in the conference call.  Dr. Patterson's name also came up earlier this week when hit pieces were calling out NP for doing this.  The explanation came out and all was well.  Now the hit is on Cool Blue LLC about allegedly being part of some investor scheme months ago.  They are relentless, that's for sure.  

 
beef said:
I don't know a lot about Culper Research, but there is a trend with them.  Start a short position, then post an article.  Not their first time doing this to a company, and this isn't their first attack on CYDY either.  
Click to expand...
To be fair. I also don't know a lot about Cool Blue Capital. I mean, it is a penny stock after all.

 
I wonder which other big pharm payroll these guys are on.  It's amazing how people do whatever they can to make a buck at the expense of people dying, potentially even themselves.

Gotta love how this whole machine operates.

Stonks go up!!  Which is why this needs to become a real stock.

 
Going to post some random tidbits here, gleam from them what you will.......

NCHL was able to raise a #### ton of capital in a secondary offering and the bond market.  In fact, they were oversubscribed.  They now have enough cash on hand to survive 18 months with zero cruises sailing.  But, they expect to start sailing again in 2020.  They have strong demand and sales and have even been able to keep prices intact.  I know that sounds nuts, but cruises are not going to go out of business.  People LOVE cruising.  I know a few personally that have already booked cruises taking advantages of perks/savings given out by CCL.  These are not unintelligent people- these are business owners, high earners, retirees, most all are successful and wealthy.  

Someone asked earlier about a safe way to invest and make 5-6% for the next few years.  Look, there are no 100% safe investments.  The best way to spread the risk would be to diversify or else by a closed end income fund.  There are a number of CEFs that I feel are relatively safe that will net out greater than 5-6% fairly easily.  My personal investing belief is I'm still in growth mode until retirement.  But, when I have excess cash sitting around and can't find anything compelling, I am all about 'parking' this money in a company with a solid balance sheet that pays a solid yield.  VZ fits this bill and I have money in there now.  Now, I did get burned by this method a number of years back with AIG, but you live, you learn.

Not to get too morbid here but there are a lot of American's dying due to COVID19.  That said, a lot of these people are older, and thus precipitating what will be the greatest transfer in our history, as the baby boomer generation passes on.  There will be a lot of money into the market here as the elderly primarily hold income producing assets rather than individual equities.  This may also be part of GM's thesis about the upcoming housing glut :oldunsure:

These unemployment numbers are bewildering to me.  They predicted 16% unemployment for April, 16!  and received unexpected good news with 14.7%.  That still just a tad shy of 1 in 6 Americans out of work.  And from what I've heard these numbers are people that are unemployed and actively looking for work, and not people that are waiting for their jobs to return, or furloughed, or hell even underemployed and/or taking pay cuts to keep their jobs.  I read a report that the actual number may be closer to 23-24% unemployed.  And this number could possibly shoot higher in May as a number of businesses declare bankruptcy, or cannot reopen to full capacity (hello, retail, casinos, hotels, etc...).  And the airline bailout stipulated that they had to keep staff on payroll until September.  There is NFW there aren't massive layoffs in the airline industry in a few months - anyone here plan on traveling via airline this summer?  Fall?  The balance of 2020?  And let's not even get into the car industry.  I know some people say that there will be greater demand for autos due to people not wanting to take mass transit.  Maybe so, but how are people going to feel when their 45-60 minute commute from LI to NYC takes 120-150 minutes?  Oh, and have you seen parking prices in major metro areas lately?  Not bloody likely this will be a significant impact on that industry.

There is going to be a long reheat of the economy, imho, not a convection style V shape recovery.  I'm still bullish for the next say 4-5 years, but this recent stock market rise to me feels absolutely unwarranted.  And when are we going to repay this massive bill that we took out to stimulate the economy?

Oh, one more thing I wanted to get off my chest and I know by now, most of you have passed out, but we better pray hard that this restart works, because I really truly feel that this pause/shutdown that was put in place was a one time deal.  If it doesn't work, you run into major headwinds such as, a) can the gov't put out another stimulus?  b) how are people going to go another 4, 6, 8 weeks without getting paid, and c) the biggest issue is you are going to get massive push back by people that say, hell it didn't work the first time, what makes you think it's going to work the next time and they are going to not shut down.  This rhetoric already creeps up from place to place and just look at the blow back you get about wearing a mask in public.  I know a lot of posters have stated stuff like "I would have no problem shutting down another 6 weeks for the good of the U.S."  Nice.  These people are also probably predominantly white collar, have the opportunity to work from home, well to do, or have significant financial resources at their ready and so on.  There is a deep financial/economic divide in this country that the wealthier just love to put their head into the sand about.  You going to stay home for another 6 weeks?  Not get paid?  Who's going to bring you your food, your booze, hell, who is going to produce these things for you?  It's crazy for people not to see this, yet they do, because they are "doing their part".  Here's to hoping a treatment and/or a vaccine are found sooner rather than later.

 
ghostguy123 said:
I wonder which other big pharm payroll these guys are on.  It's amazing how people do whatever they can to make a buck at the expense of people dying, potentially even themselves.

Gotta love how this whole machine operates.

Stonks go up!!  Which is why this needs to become a real stock.
Click to expand...
Culper is their own deal. Nothing to do with big pharma. They short stocks and then write hit pieces on them to try to make money. As far as I can tell, they're also VERY bad at it.

 
lod001 said:
OK ladies. Bernie, Kamala and some Ed Markey guy have introduced the bill that gives each of us low income citizens, $2000 a month, until this runs its course.  :clap:

https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1258778102160936960

Now I can see the market rising bigly on this hoping to suck in much of that extra $2000 we have at inflated stock prices. I mean, mine will go right into the market.
Click to expand...
Plus it's retro back to March 1.  :o

 
I might believe it had a slight chance if there was a GOP name on the bill.  Only GOP member I've heard suggesting any sort of monthly payment was Romney, but it was $1000/mo.  And not sure Romney is considered GOP by the GOP anymore.   

 
Curious what the price tag would be on that assuming this runs till March 21 ( realistic).

Add 3 months and we can just assume 24k for every American making under 120k. 

Assume 150M Americans @ 24k and that's 3.6 Trillion, right? 
 

THEN we can discuss the effects of trying to wean Americans off that teat...

 
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[icon] said:
Curious what the price tag would be on that assuming this runs till March 21 ( realistic).

Add 3 months and we can just assume 24k for every American making under 120k. 

Assume 150M Americans @ 24k and that's 3.6 Trillion, right? 
 

THEN we can discuss the effects of trying to wean Americans off that teat...
Click to expand...
A couple of Trillion Dollar coins. They can mint those in a few minutes and wire the $ right into my bank account. Eliminate all state unemployment at the same time since those systems failed magnificently. 

 
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ghostguy123 said:
I wonder which other big pharm payroll these guys are on.  It's amazing how people do whatever they can to make a buck at the expense of people dying, potentially even themselves.

Gotta love how this whole machine operates.

Stonks go up!!  Which is why this needs to become a real stock.
Click to expand...
It is interesting to watch. It's like real life Saul Goodman stuff. One of the "law firms" initiating an investigation today, Federman & Sherwood, lists their address as 10205 North Pennsylvania Avenue, Oklahoma City, OK 73120. Google maps shows an abandoned lot for that address.

I don't know anything about CytoDyn, but the stakes are huge in pharma. I mean, Gilead makes something like $4bn a quarter on HIV drugs alone. I'd imagine these guys don't want competition.

 
So with TVIX, I'm not just fighting the Fed, but also Congress and a POTUS who at least partially judges himself on stock prices. Got it.

 
Been noticing that the market has recently been spiking higher at open and fading throughout the day.  revShark calls it the fade-trade and says it's been a long time since that has worked...back in the 'old days'.

 
Random said:
Is there any way you could tell us what we should see on a 8 sma monthly.  I'm looking at VTI and it appears to have moved below the 8ma in late Jan/early Feb and hasn't crossed back above since.  That doesn't sound like what you're saying.  What am I doing wrong?
Click to expand...
The 8SMA is a very simple method of trend identification.  The strengths of it are that a person would never miss a large extended trend.  The weakness is that there are times where it can be prone to whipsaw.  Whipsaws are the suck.  The method I use of trend identification is structured to mostly/hopefully eliminate whipsaw events in a long term trend.  The strengths of it are that you don't get whipsawed out of the "true" trend.  The weakness is that the exit is often lower than ideal.  Personally, I think I can manage the weakness through utilizing trades on different time frames.

As I've said before.  What I do is 99.9% different from what you guys do.  But the investors time frame is slow.  You have to be mostly right and with the 8SMA you can be.  But for sure there are weaknesses in it.  Again - the idea was that a person doesn't have to spend hundreds of hours per year looking at charts.

 
lod001 said:
OK ladies. Bernie, Kamala and some Ed Markey guy have introduced the bill that gives each of us low income citizens, $2000 a month, until this runs its course.  :clap:

https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1258778102160936960

Now I can see the market rising bigly on this hoping to suck in much of that extra $2000 we have at inflated stock prices. I mean, mine will go right into the market.
Click to expand...
Eventually Fed Bucks are going to be at parity with Schrute Bucks

 
And we're off...

OKLAHOMA CITY--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The law firm of Federman & Sherwood has initiated an investigation into CytoDyn Inc. ( CYDY) and its officers and directors, with respect to possible violations of federal securities laws. On April 27, 2020, CytoDyn ( CYDY), a late-stage biotechnology company, issued a press release indicating it had submitted a "Biologics License Application (“BLA”) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Leronlimab as a combination therapy with HAART for highly treatment experienced HIV patients." On May 7, 2020, CytoDyn ( CYDY) announced that its BLA for Leronlimab "will be considered completed after the clinical datasets are submitted on May 11, 2020."

If you purchased shares of common stock and suffered a loss on that investment in CytoDyn Inc. ( CYDY), and would like to learn more about the investigation, please visit: https://www.federmanlaw.com/blog/federman-sherwood-investigates-cytodyn-inc-for-possible-violations-of-federal-securities-laws/

If you have any information to assist in our investigation or have questions or concerns regarding this notice or your rights or interests in this matter, or you may contact William B. Federman at (405) 235-1560 or by email at wbf@federmanlaw.com with any questions you may have regarding this investigation. Federman & Sherwood has extensive nationwide experience in representing investors in securities, derivative and merger-related shareholder class actions, and has been appointed as lead counsel in multiple complex cases across the country.

 
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