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Stock Thread (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
It’s no better than say learning that if you have someone roll over on to their stomach type results. It’s like cold medicine, it makes you feel better a little sooner. It’s disappointing in terms of it being lauded as a potential cure. These were moderately ill patients that would have likely recovered anyway.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
My issue seems not knowing when to sell. I am up 120% on DKNG and part of me feels like I should sell some but part of me feels like it could go much higher and wants to hold.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
That news that California is moving toward legalizing sports betting is huge. There might be room for more short term gains.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
That news that California is moving toward legalizing sports betting is huge. There might be room for more short term gains.
Having another solid day. Always helps when Amazon is positive but ZM, ZS and FSLY are rolling again. Those might be my best stocks outside of the CYDY at $1. Bought a sizable amount of each and they are combined up 164%. Amazing run considering I bought most of it in October/November. I only bought an extra 100 shares of FSLY in March.
TripItUp
Footballguy
It’s not a bad idea especially if you don’t see the stock continuing to grow. Right now, it might be a wee bit frothy so it could be a good choice. That said, if I sold half of my ZM at $130 and half my FSLY at $34, I would have missed out on another 50% and 33%. I’m also holding for a few years on both so it’s your timeframe on the stock that could decide when to sell. You don’t lose selling at a profit but you can also miss out on huge gains if you picked the right dog like Apple or Google or Netflix or Amazon, etc. Sometimes for some unique companies it was an amazing time to buy more after a 100% gain. Anyway, I think @Todem’s advice is very sound but there are many multi-baggers out there that you just want to ride even if they dip 50% in March 2020.I'm a newbie to individual stock but what about a trailing 10% stop for 1/2 your shares? Then you can continue this ride up with all the shares, lock in profits with half your shares on a dip, and free roll the remaining shares (the @Todem method).
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Anyone else noticing how unstable many online platforms are right now. Just this morning I had a problem with Fidelity. Now my bacnk is saying documents unavailable and then they are available seconds later. Wondering if all this remote access is bogging down many of these platforms and if there's a potential play here besides Amazon?
I did have some weirdness with Fidelity as well, portfolio wouldn’t show but logging out and closing the app fixed it.
Tecumseh
Footballguy
Can someone please explain something to me like I'm 5: ARVN tanked on Friday on news of a trial that didn't fail, but wasn't as successful as they'd hoped. Today they were upgraded by Citigroup to a buy, with a target of $45. Does that mean Citigroup expects the stock to hit $45 within a year? If not, what timeframe?
beef
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
CYDY seems to be ping-ponging between $2.98 and $3.00. Occasionally, it drops to $2.97. So I sold at $3.00 and put in a limit order to re-buy at $2.97.
beef
Footballguy
hxperson
Footballguy
The PT just means that by whatever valuation metrics they are using (usually DCF but sometimes they use SOP or a combo) their analyst thinks that the stock is worth $45 today. I wouldn't think about it in terms of time frame.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Not even close to Chet-level. I'm closer to Chet's little brother with the bra on my head. I sold 15,500 shares. So I'll profit about $500.
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A price target isn’t always for that day. Most sites show mainly 12 month targets. I’m sure they give out current price targets but again most times analysts are actually giving out 12 month targets. That can be a catalyst that makes stocks jump and then when they don’t reach the numbers the analyst was assuming they can take a big hit.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
Each bank runs it differently. Technically, I believe those are 12-18 month time frames. It would be disclosed in the actual research piece. But I also wouldn't really look at it from that perspective. Besides the obvious long-bias from equity research, these analysts aren't so much trying to provide exact prices. The price is usually the last thing they do and they can manipulate it. Pharma is a different animal so price targets may be a little better but I'd look at the prices as more directional. I remember on NFLX, analysts kept raising their target prices because the stock kept running up and they wanted to keep their buy rating on the stock.
I would just read it as Citi thinks the recent move is overdone. Not sure if they changed their price target or the stock just moved. If they moved the price up despite the failure, that would be a positive sign as they see something positive in the data. But I'd look at it more like that than a specific target price. Quite frankly, analysts don't really want stocks to hit their target prices (buys or sells) too quickly because then they have to keep updating it.
Tecumseh
Footballguy
Thank you. Citi's press release specifically said they thought the downward movement was an overreaction to the trial news, and felt like the trial just needed more time.
matuski
Footballguy
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Buffett isn’t a backer from what I saw, he’s going to be a personality on something with Jennifer Garner about hygiene. That’s not the same thing as investing. Pretty sure a stock who’s market cap was just above $100M before today isn’t on BRK’s radar for investments. BRK could own the whole thing and it would have to go up 40x to make a 1% difference in BRK share price.
hxperson
Footballguy
Not sure what you mean by that. Yes it is technically a 12 month target, but what most equity analysts try to do, and especially the ones from the bulge brackets, is calculate what they believe the company's intrinsic value is on a per share basis. While they may have some thoughts on how soon the shares get there, that isn't where their expertise lies - they aren't traders or money managers. So you can think about the price targets within a 12 month time frame but it doesn't mean much. I totally agree with Sporthenry though that it is important to consider these numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. The banks have many incentives to be optimistic (and even fewer motivations to be pessimistic) on their targets due to all the fees they get from their investment banking and other financial services (lending, fx, etc) relationships with these companies. If you think of a Hold as a sell, Buy as a hold, and Strong Buy as a Buy, you're probably better off.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Just want to say thanks to @Chet for letting us know about Cytodyn.
Have a decent sized position but thinking of reducing it significantly. I know HIV and perhaps Cancer are the longer goals but not sure I want to be tied up waiting that long. Was hoping for more of a pop for Covid but getting more wary that it may not happen.
What I don't like is that they are so off on timelines and seem overly optimistic. It makes me wonder if the optimism is not completely misplaced and is just a tool for pumping. Still no peer review for Patterson, the trials that were started at Novant have not filled, if this is a Covid miss, it's probably going to retreat even though they still have a future.
This will probably be good for all the longs if I sell though, not gonna be surprised if we do get the news we want, just weighing the risk reward right now.
Have a decent sized position but thinking of reducing it significantly. I know HIV and perhaps Cancer are the longer goals but not sure I want to be tied up waiting that long. Was hoping for more of a pop for Covid but getting more wary that it may not happen.
What I don't like is that they are so off on timelines and seem overly optimistic. It makes me wonder if the optimism is not completely misplaced and is just a tool for pumping. Still no peer review for Patterson, the trials that were started at Novant have not filled, if this is a Covid miss, it's probably going to retreat even though they still have a future.
This will probably be good for all the longs if I sell though, not gonna be surprised if we do get the news we want, just weighing the risk reward right now.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Nader speaks in dog years. You have to multiply by 7.Jefferson the Caregiver said:
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I doubled up on DKNG and BLMN and sold all of my shares for both middle of last week. I sure wish I had held onto both.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Stocks up, vol up. Treasuries flat but rallied on Friday. Somebody is wrong.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Into a small amount of FMCI, Revshark's stock of week. I didn't buy GAN last week at $16 as the two price targets he referenced were $16.50 and $18. Today it's over $25. SMH.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Have an IPO coming around June 4th, a fintech play I never heard of. Anybody familiar with Shift4 Payments? Here's the prospectus.
SLQT has been acting pretty well.
SLQT has been acting pretty well.
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caustic
Footballguy
I also dipped a toe into FMCI @ 12.45. Lots of people on twitter speculating that the merger is with Impossible Foods, which seems way too good to be true. We’ll see.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
McBokonon
Footballguy
Yep, you're right. 4's can look like 9's when you decide you hate the world and start day drinking before lunch.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Anyway, I apparently qualify to participate in this one through TD Ameritrade so I'm wondering if this one has a chance to pop at the open like a few of the last IPO's. Doing my own research but was curious if anyone was familiar. I went through the prospectus but I'm not an expert - I can see they are operating at a loss which is common for IPO's, revenue is increasing a lot, and they're openly saying they are just going to aggressively go after market share for a while.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I will be participating in this IPO for my clients. It looks like the initial expected pricing will be $19-$21. The email I just received said to expect small allocations for our office. That is usually a good sign that it will be a hot IPO. I will share more as I hear about expected pricing in this thread.
