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Stock Thread (11 Viewers)

(And ironically, I am beginning to think people really do love petty arguments. Think about it. I wrote a few in-depth paragraphs on my views of the overall market. I explained the DJIA was clearly bullish; the S&P was feeling bullish; but meanwhile the technicals were not saying the same about the Nasdaq (at least not at the time of my point - things have changed since). Yet how many responses did that get? How much feedback or back and forth on that subject was generated? Minimal.)
Of course people all love petty arguments. That's why this thread deteriorates quickly and becomes useless.Few and far between are the posters like SLB and Mystery Achiever (two of my personal favorites)
Thanks GB, you are too. :hifive:Hear-the-Footsteps, I apologize for not replying but I have my reasons. First, I've been really busy and have a ton of personal & professional things going on. Second, I have no delusions that I am some kind of market guru. I appreciate the views of others and really don't have any technical expertise, like Siff & Sand, to agree or counter your points. The vast majority of my trades are based on "gut" if you will. I post them all here, good and bad.
 
When CNBC had a special on last night celebrating the market highs (which i've never seen before... normally all news networks love to tout doom and gloom... bad news sells)My immediate alarm in my mind was:This will push the market up another few %, but then i could see some of the big money taking a profit.I'm highly considering taking about 10-20% off in the next 2 weeks of my 401K money that's in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and s&p midcap 400 index funds.Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.I've seen too many positive market reports lately... I feel like it's time to be prudent.I took 15% off when the dow hit 13K, obviously that wasn't the right move, but I've had a pretty damn good run...Please berate or comment on this as you see fit
You must have missed it, because they looked like a bunch of clowns the last time around- party hats, noise makers, etc. They joked about it a little yesterday how they weren't going to make a big production out of it. CNBC has a mixture of perma-bulls and perma-bears, but overall they are pretty optimistic.As for what to do, it's all about personality. If you're a bit risk-adverse and happy with your profits, by all means lock some in. If you're the type that would be furious if you missed the next leg up, then maybe not. No one knows what is going to happen, there are so many external factors at play. Even the "experts" have vastly different views.
 
When CNBC had a special on last night celebrating the market highs (which i've never seen before... normally all news networks love to tout doom and gloom... bad news sells)My immediate alarm in my mind was:This will push the market up another few %, but then i could see some of the big money taking a profit.I'm highly considering taking about 10-20% off in the next 2 weeks of my 401K money that's in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and s&p midcap 400 index funds.Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.I've seen too many positive market reports lately... I feel like it's time to be prudent.I took 15% off when the dow hit 13K, obviously that wasn't the right move, but I've had a pretty damn good run...Please berate or comment on this as you see fit
You must have missed it, because they looked like a bunch of clowns the last time around- party hats, noise makers, etc. They joked about it a little yesterday how they weren't going to make a big production out of it. CNBC has a mixture of perma-bulls and perma-bears, but overall they are pretty optimistic.As for what to do, it's all about personality. If you're a bit risk-adverse and happy with your profits, by all means lock some in. If you're the type that would be furious if you missed the next leg up, then maybe not. No one knows what is going to happen, there are so many external factors at play. Even the "experts" have vastly different views.
I did miss most of it, i got home and it was half way over.But i follow a lot of investment people on twitter and facebook and i keep seeing the same type of post:"now that the market is at new highs, is it safe to get back into stocks? Can we trust the market again?"There definitely might be a push to dow 15k 16k... but I can't imagine it gets there this year and without a couple bumps in the road on the way.I don't think we're going to crash out... but I do think a lot of the % of gain has been made since we were at dow 6500.I was 100% invested in stocks (and preferred stocks) until dow 13k (had been since dow 9500). I took some off the top at dow 13K... i'm still like 85% invested... I'll still do fine if i take another 15% off and am 70% invested and we go to dow 16k... but i'd sure like to have some cash in case it dips to dow 12K
 
When CNBC had a special on last night celebrating the market highs (which i've never seen before... normally all news networks love to tout doom and gloom... bad news sells)My immediate alarm in my mind was:This will push the market up another few %, but then i could see some of the big money taking a profit.I'm highly considering taking about 10-20% off in the next 2 weeks of my 401K money that's in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and s&p midcap 400 index funds.Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.I've seen too many positive market reports lately... I feel like it's time to be prudent.I took 15% off when the dow hit 13K, obviously that wasn't the right move, but I've had a pretty damn good run...Please berate or comment on this as you see fit
You must have missed it, because they looked like a bunch of clowns the last time around- party hats, noise makers, etc. They joked about it a little yesterday how they weren't going to make a big production out of it. CNBC has a mixture of perma-bulls and perma-bears, but overall they are pretty optimistic.As for what to do, it's all about personality. If you're a bit risk-adverse and happy with your profits, by all means lock some in. If you're the type that would be furious if you missed the next leg up, then maybe not. No one knows what is going to happen, there are so many external factors at play. Even the "experts" have vastly different views.
I did miss most of it, i got home and it was half way over.But i follow a lot of investment people on twitter and facebook and i keep seeing the same type of post:"now that the market is at new highs, is it safe to get back into stocks? Can we trust the market again?"There definitely might be a push to dow 15k 16k... but I can't imagine it gets there this year and without a couple bumps in the road on the way.I don't think we're going to crash out... but I do think a lot of the % of gain has been made since we were at dow 6500.I was 100% invested in stocks (and preferred stocks) until dow 13k (had been since dow 9500). I took some off the top at dow 13K... i'm still like 85% invested... I'll still do fine if i take another 15% off and am 70% invested and we go to dow 16k... but i'd sure like to have some cash in case it dips to dow 12K
I meant missed it the last time around- they didn't do much at all this time.In any event, sounds like you answered your own question. If you're happy with your returns, and you'd be more upset if the market drops while you're in it than you would be if it rises with you partially on the sidelines, then getting out of some certainly makes sense.
 
When CNBC had a special on last night celebrating the market highs (which i've never seen before... normally all news networks love to tout doom and gloom... bad news sells)My immediate alarm in my mind was:This will push the market up another few %, but then i could see some of the big money taking a profit.I'm highly considering taking about 10-20% off in the next 2 weeks of my 401K money that's in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and s&p midcap 400 index funds.Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.I've seen too many positive market reports lately... I feel like it's time to be prudent.I took 15% off when the dow hit 13K, obviously that wasn't the right move, but I've had a pretty damn good run...Please berate or comment on this as you see fit
You must have missed it, because they looked like a bunch of clowns the last time around- party hats, noise makers, etc. They joked about it a little yesterday how they weren't going to make a big production out of it. CNBC has a mixture of perma-bulls and perma-bears, but overall they are pretty optimistic.As for what to do, it's all about personality. If you're a bit risk-adverse and happy with your profits, by all means lock some in. If you're the type that would be furious if you missed the next leg up, then maybe not. No one knows what is going to happen, there are so many external factors at play. Even the "experts" have vastly different views.
I did miss most of it, i got home and it was half way over.But i follow a lot of investment people on twitter and facebook and i keep seeing the same type of post:"now that the market is at new highs, is it safe to get back into stocks? Can we trust the market again?"There definitely might be a push to dow 15k 16k... but I can't imagine it gets there this year and without a couple bumps in the road on the way.I don't think we're going to crash out... but I do think a lot of the % of gain has been made since we were at dow 6500.I was 100% invested in stocks (and preferred stocks) until dow 13k (had been since dow 9500). I took some off the top at dow 13K... i'm still like 85% invested... I'll still do fine if i take another 15% off and am 70% invested and we go to dow 16k... but i'd sure like to have some cash in case it dips to dow 12K
From where you were 18 months or so ago...I don't feel like you've grown as an investor. Perhaps I'm wrong. To me your investment philosophy now revolves around a bunch of folksie sayings: "Sell in May...Be fearful when others are greedy..."For all the effort- I'd have hoped you have some better and more concrete method of analyzing the market and through that basing your investment future on it. Whether that be via fundamental analysis and you seek to buy when markets are undervalued and sell them when they are overvalued. Or through some form of technical analysis where you buy when price is generally trending up and then sell when price is generally trending down.In the long run I think it better to have formulated and thought through reasoning for buying and selling. Over time it is better to be wrong in the present moment in your assessment with such a thought through and formulated plan, than it is to be correct (in the present) by guess work and fancy slogans.Every investment decision should answer the question: why here? why now? With facts, numbers, statistics, charts etc. Not party balloons or funerals. Not from what you hear from a so called "guru" or media expert. Not by what your gut says. When you can concretely answer the question of why here? why now? Right or wrong you can go back and examine your reasons, hone your skills, get better with each win and each loss.Your fancy sayings may get you a nice string of wins. But hear me now. Those wins will soften you. And there will come a time when you get absolutely decimated. It's not what I hope for you. It's not what I hope for anyone. I think you are better than that, and can do better than parrot what you hear from the media.If no one can know the future...why spend your time making guesses about it? The "zone" whether that be in sports or in stock market investing comes when you are 100% present focused. Leave the predictions about the future for the fortune tellers. Make your real fortune by being in the here and now. It's hard to do. The hard must become the habit. The habit then becomes the easy. The easy then becomes the beautiful. I feel you've given up at the hard and skipped to what you think is the easy. I believe you want to be more than that...better than that. So go out and be it.
 
When CNBC had a special on last night celebrating the market highs (which i've never seen before... normally all news networks love to tout doom and gloom... bad news sells)My immediate alarm in my mind was:This will push the market up another few %, but then i could see some of the big money taking a profit.I'm highly considering taking about 10-20% off in the next 2 weeks of my 401K money that's in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and s&p midcap 400 index funds.Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.I've seen too many positive market reports lately... I feel like it's time to be prudent.I took 15% off when the dow hit 13K, obviously that wasn't the right move, but I've had a pretty damn good run...Please berate or comment on this as you see fit
You must have missed it, because they looked like a bunch of clowns the last time around- party hats, noise makers, etc. They joked about it a little yesterday how they weren't going to make a big production out of it. CNBC has a mixture of perma-bulls and perma-bears, but overall they are pretty optimistic.As for what to do, it's all about personality. If you're a bit risk-adverse and happy with your profits, by all means lock some in. If you're the type that would be furious if you missed the next leg up, then maybe not. No one knows what is going to happen, there are so many external factors at play. Even the "experts" have vastly different views.
I did miss most of it, i got home and it was half way over.But i follow a lot of investment people on twitter and facebook and i keep seeing the same type of post:"now that the market is at new highs, is it safe to get back into stocks? Can we trust the market again?"There definitely might be a push to dow 15k 16k... but I can't imagine it gets there this year and without a couple bumps in the road on the way.I don't think we're going to crash out... but I do think a lot of the % of gain has been made since we were at dow 6500.I was 100% invested in stocks (and preferred stocks) until dow 13k (had been since dow 9500). I took some off the top at dow 13K... i'm still like 85% invested... I'll still do fine if i take another 15% off and am 70% invested and we go to dow 16k... but i'd sure like to have some cash in case it dips to dow 12K
From where you were 18 months or so ago...I don't feel like you've grown as an investor. Perhaps I'm wrong. To me your investment philosophy now revolves around a bunch of folksie sayings: "Sell in May...Be fearful when others are greedy..."For all the effort- I'd have hoped you have some better and more concrete method of analyzing the market and through that basing your investment future on it. Whether that be via fundamental analysis and you seek to buy when markets are undervalued and sell them when they are overvalued. Or through some form of technical analysis where you buy when price is generally trending up and then sell when price is generally trending down.In the long run I think it better to have formulated and thought through reasoning for buying and selling. Over time it is better to be wrong in the present moment in your assessment with such a thought through and formulated plan, than it is to be correct (in the present) by guess work and fancy slogans.Every investment decision should answer the question: why here? why now? With facts, numbers, statistics, charts etc. Not party balloons or funerals. Not from what you hear from a so called "guru" or media expert. Not by what your gut says. When you can concretely answer the question of why here? why now? Right or wrong you can go back and examine your reasons, hone your skills, get better with each win and each loss.Your fancy sayings may get you a nice string of wins. But hear me now. Those wins will soften you. And there will come a time when you get absolutely decimated. It's not what I hope for you. It's not what I hope for anyone. I think you are better than that, and can do better than parrot what you hear from the media.If no one can know the future...why spend your time making guesses about it? The "zone" whether that be in sports or in stock market investing comes when you are 100% present focused. Leave the predictions about the future for the fortune tellers. Make your real fortune by being in the here and now. It's hard to do. The hard must become the habit. The habit then becomes the easy. The easy then becomes the beautiful. I feel you've given up at the hard and skipped to what you think is the easy. I believe you want to be more than that...better than that. So go out and be it.
great post.i guess i feel like right now the market is beginning to become disconnected from earnings and macro-economic issues.It doesn't feel like things are going well enough in the country/world to justify being pumped up as high as we are.So when things become disconnected, at some point you have to wonder if euphoria has taken over analysis.I'm not suggesting we're at some insane Tech Bubble like nasdaq 5000 where nothing was based on the numbers/evaluations.Just that it might be 10-15% inflated over true values.... today, in the now.Surely you agree that in the short term there can be market fluctuations that aren't based on hard numbers.. there's emotion involved.Admittedly i haven't grown much as a pure stock investor in the last 18 mo. You also haven't seen me post one single common stock purchase or sale. You convinced me that wasn't for me, and you were right.I've become an extremely good income investor and have made very good money with my preferred stocks and exchange traded debt... those have served me well.So i'm talking about making what amounts to just a slight adjustment in my 401k where i can't purchase an individual stock, i just have choices of index funds, being in them or out of them.
 
When CNBC had a special on last night celebrating the market highs (which i've never seen before... normally all news networks love to tout doom and gloom... bad news sells)

My immediate alarm in my mind was:

This will push the market up another few %, but then i could see some of the big money taking a profit.

I'm highly considering taking about 10-20% off in the next 2 weeks of my 401K money that's in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and s&p midcap 400 index funds.

Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful.

I've seen too many positive market reports lately... I feel like it's time to be prudent.

I took 15% off when the dow hit 13K, obviously that wasn't the right move, but I've had a pretty damn good run...

Please berate or comment on this as you see fit
I posted a couple of weeks ago about taking some profits off the table in the small cap and mid-cap areas but haven't pulled the trigger, which are all ETF/Mutual Fund investments. Currently about 7.5% cash in my discretionary account and thought would be go to about 20% cash (earning nothing which sucks). The reason I haven't is the federal reserve is driving people into riskier assets for returns. I work in the HY bond/leverage loan space and those areas have appreciated so much as have government bonds and investment grade bonds that the risks to remain in any fixed income assets are just too great (both on an interest rate / credit spread basis). That basically leaves folks one place to invest in which is equities. As long at the fed keeps the faucet and party on there really is no better place to be than US equities. Of course if they make any move to tighten it is time to jump ship on all these asset classes and be in cash. Of course the hard/impossible task is picking that point. To be honest I don't think the federal reserve/government learned anything from 2007/2008. This is a nice chart that shows the renewed love for CLOs - http://www.leveragedloan.com/category/clo/. Which are basically a form of asset backed security that drove credit to insance levels. My predicition is here comes the credit bubble 2.0 in 2015.

As full disclosure I would remain fully invested in 401K type accounts (for better or worse).

I also would add that if Apple gets to 400 dollars a share I am buying some as the dividend yield just looks good at that price.

 
I meant since the whole peak of late 2007 and recession/crash of 2008 (into the early part of 09).
However, this is not like the DJIA & the S&P where it has not been that high since Oct '07. Nope. This is the highest it has ever been. Not in the last 4 yrs, not in the last 6 yrs, but highest ever.
lol
It was a mistake - poor wording as I already explained. Thanks though for adding insight.Btw, I've already more than proven some things in these stock threads. Feel free to check back on my live (real-time) plays on EXK last summer. I was constantly buying and selling and reporting it here as it happened. But 99% of the posts in these threads has lacked any real substance. Or when you ask a guy why he feels the way he does about something, sometimes he goes missing if he is wrong.

So yeah, I went into detail and explained myself. And in doing so, appear to have contradicted myself. I wasn't running private investment fund back in 2000 (during height of dotcoms, techs, etc - ie, the high of the Nasdaq). And many people in the industry feel like much of the time since the turn of the century was the "lost decade". So no, it was not the highest it has ever been. Obviously. You can find that out on any chart or googling it in a second. I meant: highest in the last decade+ (meaning for over a decade now). But no, not ever.

Thanks for pointing out what was already pointed out. Very helpful.
Oh don't get all butthurt. It was funny. But come on with the "worded poorly" nonsense. Do you think people are stupid? You literally went out of your way to emphasize that you did NOT mean just the highest in the past few years. You beat that point into the ground - that you definitely were not talking about just the past 5-6 years, you were talking about ALL TIME. And now you're saying you really meant the exact opposite of that, and you just worded it poorly? :rolleyes:

You ####ed up, laugh it off, don't act like it didn't happen and don't act like your track record in stock threads or your history of running investment funds changes is relevant.
My point was simply: It was not at all time highs at the end of 2007 like the DJIA and the S&P500. It was not on that same exact path. It was already much higher than that, whereas DJIA & S&P500 were not already much higher - rather they were finally approaching those old #s.But thanks for not only pointing it out after someone already did, but on top of that - coming back to it yet again.

Feel free to keep going with it. That's what people love in a stock thread.

(And ironically, I am beginning to think people really do love petty arguments. Think about it. I wrote a few in-depth paragraphs on my views of the overall market. I explained the DJIA was clearly bullish; the S&P was feeling bullish; but meanwhile the technicals were not saying the same about the Nasdaq (at least not at the time of my point - things have changed since). Yet how many responses did that get? How much feedback or back and forth on that subject was generated? Minimal.)

You're up now...
It is possible that no one responded to your thoughts as with the miswording or mistakes (whatever folks want to call it) people just ignored it. When I first read it I ignored the entire analysis once I got to that section as it made the whole thing non-sensical.
 
I think a few of you guys read my blog. An updated post on where we are in this current market trend.

http://steelhedge.com/2013/01/26/january-25-2013-sector-trends-and-charts/
How do you subscribe?
:goodposting:
Found it
Siff,

I subscribed to your site, but I haven't gotten any email updates. Are there emails when there is a new blog post, or just when there is a major tend flip?
I haven't wanted to send email updates out unless there was a major turn in the market. A "rare" email, I hope will carry more significance. Now I do send out an notification on Twitter when I'm about to make a post on the blog. But I post other stuff in between too. It's at the times of a PI flip when I believe a trend investor needs to do work. The rest of the time you just let the trend work in your favor. Because of that I've gone to updating the blog 2x a month. The first and third Friday...or thereabouts.

The latest post can be found here:

Steelhedge Blog

Now I know we're at all time highs, and the PI is bullish. From the front page here it's all giggles, smirks, I told ya sos and such. What has me a bit on edge is that for all the bullishness the PI is dropping. Take today...the PI should have gone up by at least .04 pts...a large and positive move correlated to the large and positive move in the markets. But that's not what the PI did....the PI dropped today and has everyday since 2/19/13 (a few days it was flat, but get the jist here). So my interest is perked. It's important to remember that the market is bullish...and I expect it will stay that way until it finally isn't. At the same time I'm not convinced they will ring a bell to let you know THE top is in either. So while Maria Bartiromo's panties are soaked, and Cramers booyaing like he's just swallowed a months worth of viagra...I'm (how can I put this), cautiously, pessimistically, BULLISH.

The #1 thing focus of investing for your future is: Preserve your wealth.

Then grow it.

Better to take your profits too early than too late. Take appropriate risk, take the risk at appropriate times, and protect your gains.
I always appreciate your insight but wanted to point out the format on your site displays horribly for me. Very difficult to read the type on my work computer. I am pretty bullish too right now from a long term perspective. That said, hard to think we won't see a correction at some point with Europe and Congress trying there best to hold this market back. Still would like to see the 10 year yield rising.
:goodposting:
 
I'm officially out of the CSCO business... for now. I bought when I thought they were underpriced with the expectation that they might just be a long-term dividend hold. But 26.5% is more than I ever thought I'd get out of them. Everybody seems to love them right now and maybe there's plenty of upside there still, but not for me.

Looking HARD at NTRS, too. I've owned it forever, and damn if it doesn't feel like it's drastically overpriced right now. Maybe I've just become too accustomed to it being a $45 stock and I need to adjust my expectations/perspective to match a new reality. In this interest rate environment, though, it feels like there's an artificial ceiling on them. Though the market being where it is will obviously drive fees up. I don't know.

 
man, this market is too good to be true....
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”~Keynes

I'm officially out of the CSCO business... for now. I bought when I thought they were underpriced with the expectation that they might just be a long-term dividend hold. But 26.5% is more than I ever thought I'd get out of them. Everybody seems to love them right now and maybe there's plenty of upside there still, but not for me.

Looking HARD at NTRS, too. I've owned it forever, and damn if it doesn't feel like it's drastically overpriced right now. Maybe I've just become too accustomed to it being a $45 stock and I need to adjust my expectations/perspective to match a new reality. In this interest rate environment, though, it feels like there's an artificial ceiling on them. Though the market being where it is will obviously drive fees up. I don't know.
Nice job GB. :thumbup: I did the same thing with LLY and I'm kicking myself now.
 
Still very high on Cameco (CCJ) although it's a long-term hold. The stock is at $21 but it's a $30+ stock next year as their Cigar Lake production begins, the supply of uranium from Russia comes off the market and Japanese reactors go back online. Wish I would have bought more when it dipped to $17 in November.

 
I think a few of you guys read my blog. An updated post on where we are in this current market trend.

http://steelhedge.com/2013/01/26/january-25-2013-sector-trends-and-charts/
How do you subscribe?
:goodposting:
Found it
Siff,

I subscribed to your site, but I haven't gotten any email updates. Are there emails when there is a new blog post, or just when there is a major tend flip?
I haven't wanted to send email updates out unless there was a major turn in the market. A "rare" email, I hope will carry more significance. Now I do send out an notification on Twitter when I'm about to make a post on the blog. But I post other stuff in between too. It's at the times of a PI flip when I believe a trend investor needs to do work. The rest of the time you just let the trend work in your favor. Because of that I've gone to updating the blog 2x a month. The first and third Friday...or thereabouts.

The latest post can be found here:

Steelhedge Blog

Now I know we're at all time highs, and the PI is bullish. From the front page here it's all giggles, smirks, I told ya sos and such. What has me a bit on edge is that for all the bullishness the PI is dropping. Take today...the PI should have gone up by at least .04 pts...a large and positive move correlated to the large and positive move in the markets. But that's not what the PI did....the PI dropped today and has everyday since 2/19/13 (a few days it was flat, but get the jist here). So my interest is perked. It's important to remember that the market is bullish...and I expect it will stay that way until it finally isn't. At the same time I'm not convinced they will ring a bell to let you know THE top is in either. So while Maria Bartiromo's panties are soaked, and Cramers booyaing like he's just swallowed a months worth of viagra...I'm (how can I put this), cautiously, pessimistically, BULLISH.

The #1 thing focus of investing for your future is: Preserve your wealth.

Then grow it.

Better to take your profits too early than too late. Take appropriate risk, take the risk at appropriate times, and protect your gains.
Got your first alert email. Fantastic stuff. :thumbup:
 
I think a few of you guys read my blog. An updated post on where we are in this current market trend.

http://steelhedge.com/2013/01/26/january-25-2013-sector-trends-and-charts/
How do you subscribe?
:goodposting:
Found it
Siff,

I subscribed to your site, but I haven't gotten any email updates. Are there emails when there is a new blog post, or just when there is a major tend flip?
I haven't wanted to send email updates out unless there was a major turn in the market. A "rare" email, I hope will carry more significance. Now I do send out an notification on Twitter when I'm about to make a post on the blog. But I post other stuff in between too. It's at the times of a PI flip when I believe a trend investor needs to do work. The rest of the time you just let the trend work in your favor. Because of that I've gone to updating the blog 2x a month. The first and third Friday...or thereabouts.

The latest post can be found here:

Steelhedge Blog

Now I know we're at all time highs, and the PI is bullish. From the front page here it's all giggles, smirks, I told ya sos and such. What has me a bit on edge is that for all the bullishness the PI is dropping. Take today...the PI should have gone up by at least .04 pts...a large and positive move correlated to the large and positive move in the markets. But that's not what the PI did....the PI dropped today and has everyday since 2/19/13 (a few days it was flat, but get the jist here). So my interest is perked. It's important to remember that the market is bullish...and I expect it will stay that way until it finally isn't. At the same time I'm not convinced they will ring a bell to let you know THE top is in either. So while Maria Bartiromo's panties are soaked, and Cramers booyaing like he's just swallowed a months worth of viagra...I'm (how can I put this), cautiously, pessimistically, BULLISH.

The #1 thing focus of investing for your future is: Preserve your wealth.

Then grow it.

Better to take your profits too early than too late. Take appropriate risk, take the risk at appropriate times, and protect your gains.
Got your first alert email. Fantastic stuff. :thumbup:
:goodposting:
 
I'm actually kicking around buying some SXRZF. Even with the exchange rate, it's basically a free 7+% with a short-term turnaround, no? Shareholders already approved the deal, so there's pretty much 0 chance it doesn't go through at this point considering ARMZ is already the majority stockholder. Only exposure on this is to CAD fx, right? What am I not considering here?

 
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'Bob Sacamano said:
I'm actually kicking around buying some SXRZF. Even with the exchange rate, it's basically a free 7+% with a short-term turnaround, no? Shareholders already approved the deal, so there's pretty much 0 chance it doesn't go through at this point considering ARMZ is already the majority stockholder. Only exposure on this is to CAD fx, right? What am I not considering here?
Looks good to me, but why has the price been dropping?Edit: The stock is at 2.74 CAD (UUU) with take over price of 2.86, which would be a 4.4% gain.
 
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'Bob Sacamano said:
I'm actually kicking around buying some SXRZF. Even with the exchange rate, it's basically a free 7+% with a short-term turnaround, no? Shareholders already approved the deal, so there's pretty much 0 chance it doesn't go through at this point considering ARMZ is already the majority stockholder. Only exposure on this is to CAD fx, right? What am I not considering here?
Looks good to me, but why has the price been dropping?Edit: The stock is at 2.74 CAD (UUU) with take over price of 2.86, which would be a 4.4% gain.
That's where I screwed it up. SXRZF Price = $2.66 USD. Takeover prics is in CAD. Duh. :wall:
 
'Bob Sacamano said:
I'm actually kicking around buying some SXRZF. Even with the exchange rate, it's basically a free 7+% with a short-term turnaround, no? Shareholders already approved the deal, so there's pretty much 0 chance it doesn't go through at this point considering ARMZ is already the majority stockholder. Only exposure on this is to CAD fx, right? What am I not considering here?
Looks good to me, but why has the price been dropping?Edit: The stock is at 2.74 CAD (UUU) with take over price of 2.86, which would be a 4.4% gain.
That's where I screwed it up. SXRZF Price = $2.66 USD. Takeover prics is in CAD. Duh. :wall:
Still seems like an opportunity to make an easy 4% in 3 months (expected to be done by the end of Q2).
 
I think a few of you guys read my blog. An updated post on where we are in this current market trend.http://steelhedge.com/2013/01/26/january-25-2013-sector-trends-and-charts/
Got your first alert email. Fantastic stuff. :thumbup:
:goodposting:
Hey Siff, thanks for the email update. At the end, you made a mention about waiting to see if the trend was confirmed... have you been able to make confirmation?
 
I am itching to get into 3D printing.

Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.

 
'Sandeman said:
I am itching to get into 3D printing. Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.
If they wind up being able to print a kidney from your own cells...well this would be the home run of the century. ONVO is a very high risk:reward kind of stock. Don't play it with more than 1% of your investment portfolio.I think it has a lot of merits. But will also likely suffer some major ups and DOWNS in share price...hopefully over time trending higher and higher. To me the goal on a play like this is to wait/hold (as long as the potential promise remains true). This is an educated gamble and there is no stop for the position (that's why it is such a small portion of investment funds). The goal would be 5x perhaps even 10x+ profits. It's impossible to hit on every one of these kinds of plays. Hopefully the winners wins outpace the losers loss.I have an initial position in ONVO from early this year. Own about 25% of what I eventually would like from around $4.15. The 3D Printer stocks are bearish, and it's not super smart to be buying weak stocks in a very bullish market. But I will be adding to the position as that trend resolves in addition to the other 3D printer stocks.
 
'Sandeman said:
I am itching to get into 3D printing. Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.
If they wind up being able to print a kidney from your own cells...well this would be the home run of the century. ONVO is a very high risk:reward kind of stock. Don't play it with more than 1% of your investment portfolio.I think it has a lot of merits. But will also likely suffer some major ups and DOWNS in share price...hopefully over time trending higher and higher. To me the goal on a play like this is to wait/hold (as long as the potential promise remains true). This is an educated gamble and there is no stop for the position (that's why it is such a small portion of investment funds). The goal would be 5x perhaps even 10x+ profits. It's impossible to hit on every one of these kinds of plays. Hopefully the winners wins outpace the losers loss.I have an initial position in ONVO from early this year. Own about 25% of what I eventually would like from around $4.15. The 3D Printer stocks are bearish, and it's not super smart to be buying weak stocks in a very bullish market. But I will be adding to the position as that trend resolves in addition to the other 3D printer stocks.
My DDD trigger finger is itchy.
 
'Sandeman said:
I am itching to get into 3D printing. Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.
If they wind up being able to print a kidney from your own cells...well this would be the home run of the century. ONVO is a very high risk:reward kind of stock. Don't play it with more than 1% of your investment portfolio.I think it has a lot of merits. But will also likely suffer some major ups and DOWNS in share price...hopefully over time trending higher and higher. To me the goal on a play like this is to wait/hold (as long as the potential promise remains true). This is an educated gamble and there is no stop for the position (that's why it is such a small portion of investment funds). The goal would be 5x perhaps even 10x+ profits. It's impossible to hit on every one of these kinds of plays. Hopefully the winners wins outpace the losers loss.I have an initial position in ONVO from early this year. Own about 25% of what I eventually would like from around $4.15. The 3D Printer stocks are bearish, and it's not super smart to be buying weak stocks in a very bullish market. But I will be adding to the position as that trend resolves in addition to the other 3D printer stocks.
My DDD trigger finger is itchy.
Wasn't it itchy at $35 too?As I recall the Full House Hand said $24 was in the cards.Sadly the DDD Bear trend isn't close to resolving. Not to say it can't go up a little from here, but I think there is more downside than you think (obviously)Put some benadryl on that finger.
 
'Sandeman said:
I am itching to get into 3D printing.

Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.
If they wind up being able to print a kidney from your own cells...well this would be the home run of the century. ONVO is a very high risk:reward kind of stock. Don't play it with more than 1% of your investment portfolio.

I think it has a lot of merits. But will also likely suffer some major ups and DOWNS in share price...hopefully over time trending higher and higher. To me the goal on a play like this is to wait/hold (as long as the potential promise remains true). This is an educated gamble and there is no stop for the position (that's why it is such a small portion of investment funds). The goal would be 5x perhaps even 10x+ profits. It's impossible to hit on every one of these kinds of plays. Hopefully the winners wins outpace the losers loss.

I have an initial position in ONVO from early this year. Own about 25% of what I eventually would like from around $4.15. The 3D Printer stocks are bearish, and it's not super smart to be buying weak stocks in a very bullish market. But I will be adding to the position as that trend resolves in addition to the other 3D printer stocks.
My DDD trigger finger is itchy.
Wasn't it itchy at $35 too?As I recall the Full House Hand said $24 was in the cards.

Sadly the DDD Bear trend isn't close to resolving. Not to say it can't go up a little from here, but I think there is more downside than you think (obviously)



Put some benadryl on that finger.
:lmao: I thought you said $25 which is where I planned on buying at. Holding tight GB.

 
'Sandeman said:
I am itching to get into 3D printing.

Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.
If they wind up being able to print a kidney from your own cells...well this would be the home run of the century. ONVO is a very high risk:reward kind of stock. Don't play it with more than 1% of your investment portfolio.

I think it has a lot of merits. But will also likely suffer some major ups and DOWNS in share price...hopefully over time trending higher and higher. To me the goal on a play like this is to wait/hold (as long as the potential promise remains true). This is an educated gamble and there is no stop for the position (that's why it is such a small portion of investment funds). The goal would be 5x perhaps even 10x+ profits. It's impossible to hit on every one of these kinds of plays. Hopefully the winners wins outpace the losers loss.

I have an initial position in ONVO from early this year. Own about 25% of what I eventually would like from around $4.15. The 3D Printer stocks are bearish, and it's not super smart to be buying weak stocks in a very bullish market. But I will be adding to the position as that trend resolves in addition to the other 3D printer stocks.
My DDD trigger finger is itchy.
Wasn't it itchy at $35 too?As I recall the Full House Hand said $24 was in the cards.

Sadly the DDD Bear trend isn't close to resolving. Not to say it can't go up a little from here, but I think there is more downside than you think (obviously)



Put some benadryl on that finger.
:lmao: I thought you said $25 which is where I planned on buying at. Holding tight GB.
If I were a fortune teller I'd say you will be able to get DDD lower than $25...perhaps much lower. It's not a price point for entry that you want to look for but whether price is generally moving up (bull trend) to make your buy. When you win from the get-go it takes off so much emotional pressure off the position. Losing from the get-go and all of a sudden you could find yourself thinking "I just hope I can break even on this DDDog."I like DDD. I'm will be making a pretty big buy at the change in trend. I'll PM you when that happens. Deal? Sit tight. It might be higher than $25 when the trend changes. It might be lower than $25. But we'll have the odds of a bull trend on our side.

 
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'Sandeman said:
I am itching to get into 3D printing.

Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.
If they wind up being able to print a kidney from your own cells...well this would be the home run of the century. ONVO is a very high risk:reward kind of stock. Don't play it with more than 1% of your investment portfolio.

I think it has a lot of merits. But will also likely suffer some major ups and DOWNS in share price...hopefully over time trending higher and higher. To me the goal on a play like this is to wait/hold (as long as the potential promise remains true). This is an educated gamble and there is no stop for the position (that's why it is such a small portion of investment funds). The goal would be 5x perhaps even 10x+ profits. It's impossible to hit on every one of these kinds of plays. Hopefully the winners wins outpace the losers loss.

I have an initial position in ONVO from early this year. Own about 25% of what I eventually would like from around $4.15. The 3D Printer stocks are bearish, and it's not super smart to be buying weak stocks in a very bullish market. But I will be adding to the position as that trend resolves in addition to the other 3D printer stocks.
My DDD trigger finger is itchy.
Wasn't it itchy at $35 too?As I recall the Full House Hand said $24 was in the cards.

Sadly the DDD Bear trend isn't close to resolving. Not to say it can't go up a little from here, but I think there is more downside than you think (obviously)



Put some benadryl on that finger.
:lmao: I thought you said $25 which is where I planned on buying at. Holding tight GB.
If I were a fortune teller I'd say you will be able to get DDD lower than $25...perhaps much lower. It's not a price point for entry that you want to look for but whether price is generally moving up (bull trend) to make your buy. When you win from the get-go it takes off so much emotional pressure off the position. Losing from the get-go and all of a sudden you could find yourself thinking "I just hope I can break even on this DDDog."I like DDD. I'm will be making a pretty big buy at the change in trend. I'll PM you when that happens. Deal? Sit tight.
Only if I get a PM too.Also - if you could let the massacre of EXK and NG continue downward I'd appreciate that as well. Every time I look at both of these charts I get hungrier and hungrier.

 
'Sandeman said:
I am itching to get into 3D printing.

Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.
If they wind up being able to print a kidney from your own cells...well this would be the home run of the century. ONVO is a very high risk:reward kind of stock. Don't play it with more than 1% of your investment portfolio.

I think it has a lot of merits. But will also likely suffer some major ups and DOWNS in share price...hopefully over time trending higher and higher. To me the goal on a play like this is to wait/hold (as long as the potential promise remains true). This is an educated gamble and there is no stop for the position (that's why it is such a small portion of investment funds). The goal would be 5x perhaps even 10x+ profits. It's impossible to hit on every one of these kinds of plays. Hopefully the winners wins outpace the losers loss.

I have an initial position in ONVO from early this year. Own about 25% of what I eventually would like from around $4.15. The 3D Printer stocks are bearish, and it's not super smart to be buying weak stocks in a very bullish market. But I will be adding to the position as that trend resolves in addition to the other 3D printer stocks.
My DDD trigger finger is itchy.
Wasn't it itchy at $35 too?As I recall the Full House Hand said $24 was in the cards.

Sadly the DDD Bear trend isn't close to resolving. Not to say it can't go up a little from here, but I think there is more downside than you think (obviously)



Put some benadryl on that finger.
:lmao: I thought you said $25 which is where I planned on buying at. Holding tight GB.
If I were a fortune teller I'd say you will be able to get DDD lower than $25...perhaps much lower. It's not a price point for entry that you want to look for but whether price is generally moving up (bull trend) to make your buy. When you win from the get-go it takes off so much emotional pressure off the position. Losing from the get-go and all of a sudden you could find yourself thinking "I just hope I can break even on this DDDog."I like DDD. I'm will be making a pretty big buy at the change in trend. I'll PM you when that happens. Deal? Sit tight. It might be higher than $25 when the trend changes. It might be lower than $25. But we'll have the odds of a bull trend on our side.
:hifive: Deal! Thanks GB. :thumbup:
 
Count me in on the DDD PM too. Been waiting out this stock for months, I don't mind if I have to wait a year or more to make sure I'm getting it at the right price... it's one of those stocks I can see fueling my portfolio for a decade if it hits right.

 
Count me in on the DDD PM too. Been waiting out this stock for months, I don't mind if I have to wait a year or more to make sure I'm getting it at the right price... it's one of those stocks I can see fueling my portfolio for a decade if it hits right.
In on the PRGN NFLX DDD train please.
 
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Count me in on the DDD PM too. Been waiting out this stock for months, I don't mind if I have to wait a year or more to make sure I'm getting it at the right price... it's one of those stocks I can see fueling my portfolio for a decade if it hits right.
Word.
 
Siff, can you provide any feedback on PLG? It's bounced back in a big way in recent weeks (months?). But every time it gets to the mid 1.40s, it will coil back. Throughout that time, I've seen numerous tweets, articles, etc., from chart readers talking about how it's at or nearing the "breakout."

Can you share with us what that means and if you agree?

 
'Sandeman said:
I am itching to get into 3D printing.

Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.
If they wind up being able to print a kidney from your own cells...well this would be the home run of the century. ONVO is a very high risk:reward kind of stock. Don't play it with more than 1% of your investment portfolio.

I think it has a lot of merits. But will also likely suffer some major ups and DOWNS in share price...hopefully over time trending higher and higher. To me the goal on a play like this is to wait/hold (as long as the potential promise remains true). This is an educated gamble and there is no stop for the position (that's why it is such a small portion of investment funds). The goal would be 5x perhaps even 10x+ profits. It's impossible to hit on every one of these kinds of plays. Hopefully the winners wins outpace the losers loss.

I have an initial position in ONVO from early this year. Own about 25% of what I eventually would like from around $4.15. The 3D Printer stocks are bearish, and it's not super smart to be buying weak stocks in a very bullish market. But I will be adding to the position as that trend resolves in addition to the other 3D printer stocks.
My DDD trigger finger is itchy.
Wasn't it itchy at $35 too?As I recall the Full House Hand said $24 was in the cards.

Sadly the DDD Bear trend isn't close to resolving. Not to say it can't go up a little from here, but I think there is more downside than you think (obviously)



Put some benadryl on that finger.
:lmao: I thought you said $25 which is where I planned on buying at. Holding tight GB.
If I were a fortune teller I'd say you will be able to get DDD lower than $25...perhaps much lower. It's not a price point for entry that you want to look for but whether price is generally moving up (bull trend) to make your buy. When you win from the get-go it takes off so much emotional pressure off the position. Losing from the get-go and all of a sudden you could find yourself thinking "I just hope I can break even on this DDDog."I like DDD. I'm will be making a pretty big buy at the change in trend. I'll PM you when that happens. Deal? Sit tight. It might be higher than $25 when the trend changes. It might be lower than $25. But we'll have the odds of a bull trend on our side.
can i get in on the PM as well...i have been sitting 50% cash and would like to find a good entry point for this sector.
 
If I were a fortune teller I'd say you will be able to get DDD lower than $25...perhaps much lower. It's not a price point for entry that you want to look for but whether price is generally moving up (bull trend) to make your buy. When you win from the get-go it takes off so much emotional pressure off the position. Losing from the get-go and all of a sudden you could find yourself thinking "I just hope I can break even on this DDDog."I like DDD. I'm will be making a pretty big buy at the change in trend. I'll PM you when that happens. Deal? Sit tight. It might be higher than $25 when the trend changes. It might be lower than $25. But we'll have the odds of a bull trend on our side.
can i get in on the PM as well...i have been sitting 50% cash and would like to find a good entry point for this sector.
I hope Siff sends it out to his members too :banned: !
 
'Sandeman said:
I am itching to get into 3D printing.

Anyone look at Organovo, a biotech and 3D printing play? It's a PK right now but they're trying to move up to one of the big boy exchanges.
If they wind up being able to print a kidney from your own cells...well this would be the home run of the century. ONVO is a very high risk:reward kind of stock. Don't play it with more than 1% of your investment portfolio.

I think it has a lot of merits. But will also likely suffer some major ups and DOWNS in share price...hopefully over time trending higher and higher. To me the goal on a play like this is to wait/hold (as long as the potential promise remains true). This is an educated gamble and there is no stop for the position (that's why it is such a small portion of investment funds). The goal would be 5x perhaps even 10x+ profits. It's impossible to hit on every one of these kinds of plays. Hopefully the winners wins outpace the losers loss.

I have an initial position in ONVO from early this year. Own about 25% of what I eventually would like from around $4.15. The 3D Printer stocks are bearish, and it's not super smart to be buying weak stocks in a very bullish market. But I will be adding to the position as that trend resolves in addition to the other 3D printer stocks.
My DDD trigger finger is itchy.
Wasn't it itchy at $35 too?As I recall the Full House Hand said $24 was in the cards.

Sadly the DDD Bear trend isn't close to resolving. Not to say it can't go up a little from here, but I think there is more downside than you think (obviously)



Put some benadryl on that finger.
:lmao: I thought you said $25 which is where I planned on buying at. Holding tight GB.
If I were a fortune teller I'd say you will be able to get DDD lower than $25...perhaps much lower. It's not a price point for entry that you want to look for but whether price is generally moving up (bull trend) to make your buy. When you win from the get-go it takes off so much emotional pressure off the position. Losing from the get-go and all of a sudden you could find yourself thinking "I just hope I can break even on this DDDog."I like DDD. I'm will be making a pretty big buy at the change in trend. I'll PM you when that happens. Deal? Sit tight. It might be higher than $25 when the trend changes. It might be lower than $25. But we'll have the odds of a bull trend on our side.
can i get in on the PM as well...i have been sitting 50% cash and would like to find a good entry point for this sector.
Me too please. :thumbup:
 
Siff, can you provide any feedback on PLG? It's bounced back in a big way in recent weeks (months?). But every time it gets to the mid 1.40s, it will coil back. Throughout that time, I've seen numerous tweets, articles, etc., from chart readers talking about how it's at or nearing the "breakout."Can you share with us what that means and if you agree?
Been watching PLG too. Seems to be stuck in a range for sure. Been hoping for a good dip below 130 so I can buy some.
 
I think we broke the link. Doesn't work for me, anyway.

Siff, do you worry about DDD or SSYS being immune to technical or fundamental analysis given its infancy and high interest? Might not take much to get these things to jump 25% or more. A good merger, a nice parternership, a large order, a technology advancement,...

I feel this field is hyper-sensitive but maybe that's already priced in.

 
I think we broke the link. Doesn't work for me, anyway.Siff, do you worry about DDD or SSYS being immune to technical or fundamental analysis given its infancy and high interest? Might not take much to get these things to jump 25% or more. A good merger, a nice parternership, a large order, a technology advancement,...I feel this field is hyper-sensitive but maybe that's already priced in.
Fundamental events can override technicals. I don't really worry about it because it is something that is extremely rare. Way less than 1/100...maybe 1/1000 chance. If it does...who cares. I want the news to be all positive for these stocks as I want them as a longer term hold and for that to happen I need to get profits from the get-go. I'm not a market timer and can't peg tops and bottoms...what I can do is recognize the odds and when they are in my favor. It's not to say I always win...but I want those odds on my side every time I put money at risk.Let's take an example of hindsight. Lets say it is April 21, 2003. AAPL is trading for $6.50. By May 12, 2003 it has made a whopping 45% move...all the way up to $9.50, which is where (on my charts) the trend turns bullish. Had you bought on May 12 at $9.50 and sitting here today (2013 and AAPL at $450) would you really be upset of missing that April 21 bottom and missing out on that $6.50 entry, or is the $9.50 entry good enough?I have no clue when or at what price DDD will be at a bottom. Maybe that was a few days ago. I don't think so because the way the chart looks is that it will take some amount of time for DDD's trend to turn. The chart looks optimally bearish, and the price should get pushed down futher- potentially much further. As always, I have no issue with anyone buying now, but you are literally going in playing a bad hand at least from the technical picture.As for PLG. The daily chart is Bullish. The weekly chart looks even better - bullish too. Looks like quite a bit of history around this $1.40-$1.50 level...it goes back years. $2.00 seems like a reasonable target. But these tiny stocks are easily manipulated, and technicals are often way out of whack due to that.
 

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