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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

Thanks.  I was wanting to search out some financial ETFs that would hold these companies.   

Top holdings:

Company    YTD Return
(as of 08/12/2020)    % of Assets
PayPal Holdings Inc    +76.87%    6.77%
Square Inc A    +122.22%    5.74%
Fidelity National Information Services Inc    +3.40%    5.73%
Mastercard Inc A    +9.73%    5.56%
Fiserv Inc    -15.27%    5.34%
Visa Inc Class A    +5.77%    5.31%
American Express Co    -18.32%    4.92%
Global Payments Inc    -5.24%    4.78%
ETFMG Sit Ultra Short ETF    -0.86%    3.86%
Most of these are actually technology companies, Amex is the only one where lending or deposits is the primary income driver.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-etfs-for-investing-in-fintech-and-the-payments-industry-2019-07-08

 
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Ok someone check my math here.  TDOC at 192.  Each share of LVGO will get 11.33 cash and .592 shares of TDOC.  So each share of LVGO is worth 125 currently.  But it’s trading at 120.  If you’re holding either one of them that’s a free $5 per share if you sell TDOC and buy LVGO right?
Exactly.  It was up to $6 earlier today.  

The deal was originally a $10 premium.  I guess the market is factoring in it not closing.  Actually I think that would be a good thing for LVGO.

 
I think this is a good example why buying individual stocks is better than an etf assuming you have the time/interest to follow the market.  If I buy 3-5 of these, I can trade back and forth between them If one pops or another drops.  I've been doing this with dfs and syf for the last couple of months.  I think you can squeeze out an extra percent or two every now and then.
For my ST plays, I'm totally with you, and have been doing the same with DFS.  I have some LT IRA funds in cash right now and I've been wanting a little more exposure to financials/payments than what I'm getting in S&P and Russell tracking indexes.  Still looking through some other ETFs and not feeling like I'm in a FOMO moment just yet since this would be a long hold.     

 
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Exactly.  It was up to $6 earlier today.  

The deal was originally a $10 premium.  I guess the market is factoring in it not closing.  Actually I think that would be a good thing for LVGO.
Yeah if that would happen I’d rather be on the LVGO side of the equation.

 
Most of these are actually technology companies, Amex is the only one where lending or deposits is the primary income driver.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-etfs-for-investing-in-fintech-and-the-payments-industry-2019-07-08
I wouldn’t want to be tied to consumer credit right now so think this is a good one if you want to get into shift to more e-commerce. 
 

My job doesn’t allow me to buy individual stocks (technically it does but need to go through a committee to approve all buys and sells so not very user friendly) so I need to find narrow etfs like this one. 

 
What's the quick lowdown on this one again? Chinese scam or legit undervalue play? or both?

I'll never learn (still licking my wounds from ROTFLMAO)
I have no answers.  Just following a recommendation from someone on here, cant remember who. 

Are all the Chinese stocks a scam?  Is this one even chinese?

Something about AI and also bikini.com 

 
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I have no answers.  Just following a recommendation from someone on here, cant remember who. 

Are all the Chinese stocks a scam?  Is this one even chinese?

Something about AI and also bikini.com 
Sorry - saw the below and jumped the gun

Remark Holdings is a Las Vegas, Nevada based digital media company with crowd counting, artificial intelligence for a Chinese Social Credit System, and content platform verticals. It was formerly known as HSW International, then Remark Media. 

 
Pretty insane last couple of days.

If the bottom falls out of this thing I am going to look back and say I knew I was being an idiot for being 100% cash invested plus owning a decent chunk of stuff on margin in a market at all time highs in the middle of a global pandemic.  But I am pretty happy with everything I own and am having trouble finding anything I would want to cut.

 
Companies I do not, for various reasons (most of them that means valuation), own. But would like to. This is, basically, my watch list. But the thing is, the valuations on most of these NEVER look good to me. Not all of them. I have other reasons for not buying some of these (yet). But companies like SHOP and CRM just always look insane to me.

I'm tired of watching those companies, thinking they're values I find unacceptable, and continuing to watch them outperform. And I'm thinking about doing something about it. Something small, but something nonetheless. Maybe just a little something in each.  Call it $1k-ish for simplicity sake. 1 share of MELI and SHOP. 3 shares of COST. 120 shares of AAXN. And so on. Maybe spreading it amongst them all makes the valuation issue more palatable.

AAXN
AMT
BAM
CAT
COST
CRM
DIS
HD
IDXX
ISRG
JPM
MELI
MKC
MKL
MSFT
NEE
SBUX
SHOP
SPG
TWLO
WMT
ZM

Set the dividends to reinvest, and just re-evaluate the entire list at some pre-determined point(s). Maybe alerts set for the SSP (@siffoin Sell Point), take a look when tripped, and otherwise just a periodic (annual?) review to determine what I think I want to do with the underperformers. Are those buy points? Has something changed since I wanted to own?

I'm missing Materials. Not as heavy tech as I thought it was. A little of everything else, I think. I think I can live with that. What should be on here that isn't? What do you think I'm nuts to have on here? Am I better off to wait a few months for a pullback? The same few months I've been waiting for like 5 years now (let's leave March out of this. I went other directions)? Poke holes. Discuss. Shtick welcome, as always.

 
Think the drop was too violent and presented a buying opportunity because of that or did you like it at 48 as well?
Violent drop coupled with an attractive valuation again. We bought a lot in March during the sell off......when CSCO goes below 45 I am always adding.

Today was a great day to add as this is a sell-off. Good opportunity to add a hit quality name on sale again.

 
Companies I do not, for various reasons (most of them that means valuation), own. But would like to. This is, basically, my watch list. But the thing is, the valuations on most of these NEVER look good to me. Not all of them. I have other reasons for not buying some of these (yet). But companies like SHOP and CRM just always look insane to me.

I'm tired of watching those companies, thinking they're values I find unacceptable, and continuing to watch them outperform. And I'm thinking about doing something about it. Something small, but something nonetheless. Maybe just a little something in each.  Call it $1k-ish for simplicity sake. 1 share of MELI and SHOP. 3 shares of COST. 120 shares of AAXN. And so on. Maybe spreading it amongst them all makes the valuation issue more palatable.

AAXN
AMT
BAM
CAT
COST
CRM
DIS
HD
IDXX
ISRG
JPM
MELI
MKC
MKL
MSFT
NEE
SBUX
SHOP
SPG
TWLO
WMT
ZM

Set the dividends to reinvest, and just re-evaluate the entire list at some pre-determined point(s). Maybe alerts set for the SSP (@siffoin Sell Point), take a look when tripped, and otherwise just a periodic (annual?) review to determine what I think I want to do with the underperformers. Are those buy points? Has something changed since I wanted to own?

I'm missing Materials. Not as heavy tech as I thought it was. A little of everything else, I think. I think I can live with that. What should be on here that isn't? What do you think I'm nuts to have on here? Am I better off to wait a few months for a pullback? The same few months I've been waiting for like 5 years now (let's leave March out of this. I went other directions)? Poke holes. Discuss. Shtick welcome, as always.
I feel like I just keep adding things to my watchlist but nothing ever comes off it for the same reason. I own JPM but I bought during and just after the crash and have had MSFT for a long time. I've actually done ok trading CRM but don't own it. I have many of the others you have on my watchlist, too, but they're just sitting there.

I don't want to be spread out like you describe, though. Maybe we'll get a solid drug cocktail (I'm not sold we'll actually get a vaccine) and get an overreaction on some of the stay-at-home names that will still be relevant even if life becomes kind of normal again.

 
I feel like I just keep adding things to my watchlist but nothing ever comes off it for the same reason. I own JPM but I bought during and just after the crash and have had MSFT for a long time. I've actually done ok trading CRM but don't own it. I have many of the others you have on my watchlist, too, but they're just sitting there.

I don't want to be spread out like you describe, though. Maybe we'll get a solid drug cocktail (I'm not sold we'll actually get a vaccine) and get an overreaction on some of the stay-at-home names that will still be relevant even if life becomes kind of normal again.
Yeah, I actually don't own JPM because I'm very overweight financials, especially banking, and I don't want to compound that. That's one I would otherwise have bought a full position in months ago. And probably still would at this point.

 
I'm tired of watching those companies, thinking they're values I find unacceptable, and continuing to watch them outperform. And I'm thinking about doing something about it. .
I have no idea.

But I do know that while trading has been fun, there's a bigger part of me that says F it, back into a total market fund (VT type) and stop wasting time on it.

But I do like betting on sector funds.

I'll keep my Roth IRA intact but may very well just go with sector ETFs like QCLN, FIVG, LRNZ, and maybe add a materiels ETF as a hedge. FMAT perhaps?

 
I have no idea.

But I do know that while trading has been fun, there's a bigger part of me that says F it, back into a total market fund (VT type) and stop wasting time on it.

But I do like betting on sector funds.

I'll keep my Roth IRA intact but may very well just go with sector ETFs like QCLN, FIVG, LRNZ, and maybe add a materiels ETF as a hedge. FMAT perhaps?
You already know I like your style and over the past few months have been kind of copying it a bit.  I feel like I get enough exposure to the total market fund and big time sector leading companies in my primary IRA and TSP which have limited options.  The IRA I play with is a smaller dollar amount and I focus more on sector specific ETFs like you and others have mentioned.  And then some individual stocks that I want a little more exposure to or based on the Stonk Thread Pro's recommendations.  I like the balance of it all and makes me feel comfortable. 

 
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I have no idea.

But I do know that while trading has been fun, there's a bigger part of me that says F it, back into a total market fund (VT type) and stop wasting time on it.

But I do like betting on sector funds.

I'll keep my Roth IRA intact but may very well just go with sector ETFs like QCLN, FIVG, LRNZ, and maybe add a materiels ETF as a hedge. FMAT perhaps?
I don’t think I could go back to strictly mutual funds. I trade about 80% of my entire portfolio, but a big chunk is AMZN and I’ll let that keep running. I’ve got about 40 stocks, so almost like my own mutual fund. For the most part I haven’t done anything but buy. I’ve only got a few short term stocks so I don’t trade enough to get stressed, but I do have a bunch more stocks I watch and I do check quite a few times, depending on work.

If I can hit my goal of doubling my portfolio in 10 years a bit earlier then I might stop checking as often. That would be nice.

Honestly, if the other stock in the other thread hits a resolution that would also be nice. I’d like to be back to just long term stuff and just adding/rebalancing/selling every once in a while.

 
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For the dividend folks:

GLDI with an ex date of 8/19 and pay date of 8/25 @ $.10 per share (current price $10.17)

SLVO ex date 8/19 and pay date of 8/25 @ $.14 per share (current price $7.12)

USOI paid last month @ $.10 per share (current price $4.78)

These are Credit Suisse covered call ETN's

 
I don’t think I could go back to strictly mutual funds. I trade about 80% of my entire portfolio, but a big chunk is AMZN and I’ll let that keep running. I’ve got about 40 stocks, so almost like my own mutual fund. For the most part I haven’t dove anything but buy. I’ve only got a few short term stocks so I don’t trade enough to get stressed, but I do have a bunch more stocks I watch and I do check quite a few times, depending on work.

If I can hit my goal of doubling my portfolio in 10 years a bit earlier then I might stop checking as often. That would be nice.

Honestly, if the other stock in the other thread hits a resolution that would also be nice. I’d like to be back to just long term stuff and just adding/rebalancing/selling every once in a while.
Doubling in ten years shouldn't be tough, at a 7.2% average return. 

And I'm about ready to dump that 4 letter stock. C###

 
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Doubling in ten years shouldn't be tough, at a 7.2% average return. 

And I'm about ready to dump that 4 letter stock. C###
Yeah, that’s why I’ve set that as my new goal. I’d love to exceed it but that would lead to a really comfortable retirement. I don’t have the pension like you but my wife and I have worked more than enough to both get max SS. Seems like that would be around $50k a year plus 4% a year of the nut would be a very comfy existence with no kid costs.

I’m glad I dumped a 1/3 at $6.50 and haven’t bought any more. Funny how stressful it is and even now I’m up $40k. I wish I wasn’t on vacation or I might have spent more tome thinking about exiting above $9. Hopefully, it has another pop left so we can all exit nicely. I wouldn’t hesitate again.

 
By the way, I know a lot of retirement articles talk about waiting on SS, but every scenario I’ve run works out so much better starting as soon as you can. For example, even thought the monthly payments are well higher, starting at 62 instead of 70 means at 70 we would have already banked $480k (either investing it directly or not spending $480k that’s already invested). Even with modest percentage ROIs, there was no break even point where the wait till 70 payments catch up.

Do your own due diligence but for the old farts in here, something to think about.

 
By the way, I know a lot of retirement articles talk about waiting on SS, but every scenario I’ve run works out so much better starting as soon as you can. For example, even thought the monthly payments are well higher, starting at 62 instead of 70 means at 70 we would have already banked $480k (either investing it directly or not spending $480k that’s already invested). Even with modest percentage ROIs, there was no break even point where the wait till 70 payments catch up.

Do your own due diligence but for the old farts in here, something to think about.
Yeah, I don't have to worry about that for another 20 years but I think you're right.

My last job managed our tax center, with many really intelligent retirees (volunteers) who were willing to share their thoughts. Most took SS early even with pensions and not needing to work.

 
By the way, I know a lot of retirement articles talk about waiting on SS, but every scenario I’ve run works out so much better starting as soon as you can. For example, even thought the monthly payments are well higher, starting at 62 instead of 70 means at 70 we would have already banked $480k (either investing it directly or not spending $480k that’s already invested). Even with modest percentage ROIs, there was no break even point where the wait till 70 payments catch up.

Do your own due diligence but for the old farts in here, something to think about.
Luckily us young farts likely won't have to wrestle with that decision when our time comes.

 
Yeah, that’s why I’ve set that as my new goal. I’d love to exceed it but that would lead to a really comfortable retirement. I don’t have the pension like you but my wife and I have worked more than enough to both get max SS. Seems like that would be around $50k a year plus 4% a year of the nut would be a very comfy existence with no kid costs.

I’m glad I dumped a 1/3 at $6.50 and haven’t bought any more. Funny how stressful it is and even now I’m up $40k. I wish I wasn’t on vacation or I might have spent more tome thinking about exiting above $9. Hopefully, it has another pop left so we can all exit nicely. I wouldn’t hesitate again.
Just doing my own math here, using the rule of 115, I'd need 8% annual to triple our investments before our daughter enters college. That will make for a rather comfortable retirement at 57 at the 4% rule.

 
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By the way, I know a lot of retirement articles talk about waiting on SS, but every scenario I’ve run works out so much better starting as soon as you can. For example, even thought the monthly payments are well higher, starting at 62 instead of 70 means at 70 we would have already banked $480k (either investing it directly or not spending $480k that’s already invested). Even with modest percentage ROIs, there was no break even point where the wait till 70 payments catch up.

Do your own due diligence but for the old farts in here, something to think about.
11 yr 8 mo. Assuming the tax difference would offset the  roi.  

 
CSCO is terrible I’m sorry to be contrarian here.  They’ve lagged tech for years.  They have a 3% yield I believe which is okay but I put it with IBM, MU, INTC hard pass.  They’re being lapped by better, more innovative companies and will continue to do so.  I sincerely doubt you are getting 30% in 3 years here 🤷‍♂️

 
Question for the commodity types:

Wife and I had a conversation about the Derecho that just swept though the midwest this week. She has a soy bean farm that shares equal parts in central Illinois and Indiana, waiting for an update.

Looks like Iowa got flattened. Probably means the upcoming Field Corn harvest is going to be down. This has a chance to affect upcoming costs for simple crap like cereal and other foodstuffs we use daily. (Oh, and Ethanol)

Any thoughts on what you should get into, or, out of?

:banned:

 
1. Had you ever heard the term Derecho before this thing? I lived in the Midwest for 20-something years, and I've never heard that term before now.

2. Where in Central IL? I can't actually answer your question. I'm just being nosy.

 
Question for the commodity types:

Wife and I had a conversation about the Derecho that just swept though the midwest this week. She has a soy bean farm that shares equal parts in central Illinois and Indiana, waiting for an update.

Looks like Iowa got flattened. Probably means the upcoming Field Corn harvest is going to be down. This has a chance to affect upcoming costs for simple crap like cereal and other foodstuffs we use daily. (Oh, and Ethanol)

Any thoughts on what you should get into, or, out of?

:banned:
Sounds like we need to put in a call to Clarence Beeks. 

 
1. Had you ever heard the term Derecho before this thing? I lived in the Midwest for 20-something years, and I've never heard that term before now.

2. Where in Central IL? I can't actually answer your question. I'm just being nosy.
1. Yes, about seven years ago one came screaming through WV. Charleston, the capital city, was without power for over a week. No gas, no ATM's, food shortages because the stores have no power. Funny thing, I stood out on my front porch getting drunk as possible knowing stuff was about to get real as it passed through where I live. Even funnier, I lose power where I live a lot. Can't explain why, it is what it is. We kept electric that whole week or so. Our house was open to anybody that needed heat relief or food during that time. 

2. My apologies, the farm is bisected by Clark and Carter counties in Illinois.

I just happened to be listening to SXM Fantasy Football Morning when the co-host also mentioned how much damage was done to those crops. Then my wife comes home and talks to me about the very same images and how she's waiting to hear from the farmer about the soy crops.

If Iowa took a big hit, that's a problem. Beef, pork, chicken, or any other livestock that uses field corn for feeding purposes, corn oil, cheap pet food, all will be possibly be impacted going into the fall. I keep my eye on the price of oil. But now I'm going to lookout for corn prices. Start stocking up on your kid's cereal, it's gonna cost more.  :2cents:

:banned:

 
Sold CHWY @ $54

Sold RLFLFL @ .42, purchased at .19

Sold TSLA @ $1644.  Will buy back before the split I think.

Looking to enter

CSCO and EXC tomorrow.  Where did you guys buy in on EXC?  it's currently at $37.94

 
By the way, I know a lot of retirement articles talk about waiting on SS, but every scenario I’ve run works out so much better starting as soon as you can. For example, even thought the monthly payments are well higher, starting at 62 instead of 70 means at 70 we would have already banked $480k (either investing it directly or not spending $480k that’s already invested). Even with modest percentage ROIs, there was no break even point where the wait till 70 payments catch up.

Do your own due diligence but for the old farts in here, something to think about.
100% agree. Give me the money. I’ve done the same analysis and come to the same conclusion.

 
CSCO is terrible I’m sorry to be contrarian here.  They’ve lagged tech for years.  They have a 3% yield I believe which is okay but I put it with IBM, MU, INTC hard pass.  They’re being lapped by better, more innovative companies and will continue to do so.  I sincerely doubt you are getting 30% in 3 years here 🤷‍♂️
Funny you say that. I saw some talking head interviewing someone from Intel, and the scroll said that it was up 50% over the past three years. I think I have that statistic right. Got me thinking as to whether that is actually any good? I don’t think it is but it’s better than the speculative numbers that you floated. I suppose the info on that scroll was meant to be impressive, with a 50% return in three years, but my guess is that lags the broader market.

 
CSCO is terrible I’m sorry to be contrarian here.  They’ve lagged tech for years.  They have a 3% yield I believe which is okay but I put it with IBM, MU, INTC hard pass.  They’re being lapped by better, more innovative companies and will continue to do so.  I sincerely doubt you are getting 30% in 3 years here 🤷‍♂️
He got me 20% out of a utility company in 1 month (240% annualized return).  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that 30% is achievable. 

 
Hold it for 12 months and you will make IMO 30-35% 

Not too shabby.

And that price target (58-60) can hit earlier...or a tad later. But I love that company for the long term.
Any concerns about the CFO retiring? I guess not as bad as the CEO......

 
11 yr 8 mo. Assuming the tax difference would offset the  roi.  
Actually, tax wise there should be no real difference. The amount of SS taxed is based on your other income and you aren’t avoiding taxes if you get it later. The amount taxed would be the same exact ratio. I used my expected in the example above but just taking current values with a couple. We’d get $4530 a month at 62 and $7580 a month at 72. At age 72, I’ve got $533k assuming a 5% gain. Let’s look at age 90. Starting at 62, I’ve got $3.26M. Start at 70 and I’m at $3.09M. 3% is $2.48 for 70 and $2.37 for 62. 7% is $3.87 for 70 and $4.55M for 62.

Unless you are sitting in CDs, and look out to 90, the break even is way more than 11 years. Also, not to be morbid, if you die early, your kids inherit a much smaller amount. Even in the 3% scenario, my wife and I would be sitting on more than $400k before a couple taking it at 70 has seen a dime.

Anyway, based on the folks in this thread I’d hope everyone has a nice nest egg so they could invest (use SS and keep the IRAs rolling) a bit more aggressively so they aren’t stuck with 3% returns.

 
Actually, tax wise there should be no real difference. The amount of SS taxed is based on your other income and you aren’t avoiding taxes if you get it later. The amount taxed would be the same exact ratio. I used my expected in the example above but just taking current values with a couple. We’d get $4530 a month at 62 and $7580 a month at 72. At age 72, I’ve got $533k assuming a 5% gain. Let’s look at age 90. Starting at 62, I’ve got $3.26M. Start at 70 and I’m at $3.09M. 3% is $2.48 for 70 and $2.37 for 62. 7% is $3.87 for 70 and $4.55M for 62.

Unless you are sitting in CDs, and look out to 90, the break even is way more than 11 years. Also, not to be morbid, if you die early, your kids inherit a much smaller amount. Even in the 3% scenario, my wife and I would be sitting on more than $400k before a couple taking it at 70 has seen a dime.

Anyway, based on the folks in this thread I’d hope everyone has a nice nest egg so they could invest (use SS and keep the IRAs rolling) a bit more aggressively so they aren’t stuck with 3% returns.
Please explain this to me like I'm Otis.  What is other income?  I assumed that if I was working at 65 that the SS income would be added on top of that?

Also if you elect 62 is your benefit set?  In other words, if I'm not at max and years 63-67 increase my benefit will it be recalculated?  How much a year do you have to make to get the max credit for the max benefit?

 
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