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4 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

“You’re a liar telling lies” got me 2 weeks and prevented me from giving you all gold.

The very first bullet point in the article posted and told that “it rings true today” from 2014 highlights a $13B debt load. You know what the debt load is today? $2B.

So what was said is factually a lie (indisputable), so that was a liar telling lies :shrug:

And with my gains on that stock, I’m passionate about it.

There are a handful of posters in this thread that I really would’ve loved to get in on this at the start, under 4 cents. By Sunday night on 8/2 I had more research on NeuroRX and Relief than any human on Earth. My friends who I gave it too have basically offered me their wives. I’m salty that I couldn’t get in here and pass this off to others at that point for stating facts. And that undeserved suspension was the biggest blunder in this forum’s history. Everyone would’ve made $10k, everyone, some would prob be up in the $100s as well. 

 

I think you and I share a problem with communicating on forums.

I agree with what you are saying, but I find the way you put it to be off putting.  I do the same thing all the time apparently.

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I will make a wager. If this stock hits $420.69 before this earnings call on March 31st, I will pass out 100 FBG subscriptions to the gents in the stock thread.

sponks

Good morning.   Value/dividend picks today for those seeking current income, and some long term moderate growth. These stocks are highly defensive.    MDU EXC VZ GIS

12 hours ago, skycriesmary said:

Apparently, I'm glutton for punishment. In for 500 HGEN. @Whyatt made some good points, and at this price point, I think it's worth the risk/reward.

 

 

8 hours ago, St. Louis Bob said:

In for 1000 HGEN at $3.43

Best of luck guys, you have cheaper cost basis than I do. I agree on the risk / reward - Here is what we can expect soon.

  • nasdaq listing - August has been mentioned 
  • Independent publication (Mayo Clinic) of clinical trial patient data 

There is some pretty good investor information on their website if you want to dig in.

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51 minutes ago, steelerfan1 said:

Ouch,  do I detect some conflict? I remember PEO from someone here as I would not have heard it anywhere else. I will try the search function.

Hmm, I guess I was more convoluted than I intended to be.

My intent was to confirm that yes it was Todem that recommended it while simultaneously complimenting him on the great advice he regularly gives in this thread.

PEO was one of his many great recommendations.

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I’ll take my cookie and go. I’ve got a top MBA program to finish after taking last semester off and a castle to buy in West Palm, my time is limited anyways. My experience and knowledge are fantastic, way beyond my years and wildly under appreciated here. The portfolio I constructed in April is nothing short of fantastic, I’m sure none of you will even go back and find it, but it has been dominating the S&P and is also nicely hedged. Gold I’ve recommended since it was printing an 11 in front of it. 

You don’t like me bc I'm cocky, abrasive, and generally a ####, I really don’t care, I’ve earned it in life, every bit of it.

This forum has been gutted and some of its best posters haven’t been spotted in 12-24 months. The political forum makes my stomach turn trying to read It, yet alone partake in a conversation.

In general, I wish most of you well. A handful of you, meh.

Yea yea, see you tomorrow.

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4 hours ago, SouthJersey said:

No commutes with increased WFH

I’ve also heard in urban and suburban areas that car sales are booming, as nobody wants to take public transit or ride sharing anytime soon. So while they may be down overall, it might not be as much as one might think. 

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14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Hmm, I guess I was more convoluted than I intended to be.

My intent was to confirm that yes it was Todem that recommended it while simultaneously complimenting him on the great advice he regularly gives in this thread.

PEO was one of his many great recommendations.

Oops, I apologize fbg, I lost my sister this week and read it as Todem was gloating, but I did have a few stouts in me at the time and am getting some clarity as we speak.

Glad it wasn’t a knock on him as a newbie I love his assistance here.

thanks again.

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6 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I’ll take my cookie and go. I’ve got a top MBA program to finish after taking last semester off and a castle to buy in West Palm, my time is limited anyways. My experience and knowledge are fantastic, way beyond my years and wildly under appreciated here. The portfolio I constructed in April is nothing short of fantastic, I’m sure none of you will even go back and find it, but it has been dominating the S&P and is also nicely hedged. Gold I’ve recommended since it was printing an 11 in front of it. 

You don’t like me bc I'm cocky, abrasive, and generally a ####, I really don’t care, I’ve earned it in life, every bit of it.

This forum has been gutted and some of its best posters haven’t been spotted in 12-24 months. The political forum makes my stomach turn trying to read It, yet alone partake in a conversation.

In general, I wish most of you well. A handful of you, meh.

Yea yea, see you tomorrow.

You can rub people the wrong way but you did help me get a replacement tempurpedic mattress so you are A-ok I’m my book!

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7 hours ago, Whyatt said:

 

Best of luck guys, you have cheaper cost basis than I do. I agree on the risk / reward - Here is what we can expect soon.

  • nasdaq listing - August has been mentioned 
  • Independent publication (Mayo Clinic) of clinical trial patient data 

There is some pretty good investor information on their website if you want to dig in.

Looking to join you guys today!

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12 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I'm not sure how everyone else is feeling right now, but I'm feeling like more than ever I need to trim some of my positions and seriously cut my exposure to this market.  It was one thing when the market was way off the highs and there was potentially tons of money to be made.  But now that we're back on the highs in such a fluffy bubble it seems like the risk/reward of being heavily invested isn't really there.

I mean how much higher can it go from this point (famous last words, I know).  What's the downside if you take a few months with a bunch of cash and the market holds up?  You miss out on a couple percent of gains?  Versus the downside of staying in which could be another massive fallout that puts everything back on sale.

Easier said than done, I know, as I look through my positions and try to figure out what to sell.  But is anyone else feeling this way?  Anyone actually acting on it and going heavy cash?

I've been feeling the exact way.  Over the last month I've dropped from 15-20% cash to 0-3% buying tech on the dips.  I've given consideration to trimming 10% across the board.  My problem is that I don't want to trim any Amazon which is back to 15% of my portfolio.  I've got a decent chunk in tankers, banks/finance, oil, and stocks like Kohl's which are closer to there March levels than ATHs.  If the market just stays in this range, I suspect those stocks will do well.

One thing you could do is hedge with with some of the negative funds like TZA.  If they are triple leveraged funds, then owning a 5% position is actually like holding 15% cash position.  You can also count any future contribution you know you are going to make as part of your cash position.

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12 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I'm not sure how everyone else is feeling right now, but I'm feeling like more than ever I need to trim some of my positions and seriously cut my exposure to this market.  It was one thing when the market was way off the highs and there was potentially tons of money to be made.  But now that we're back on the highs in such a fluffy bubble it seems like the risk/reward of being heavily invested isn't really there.

I mean how much higher can it go from this point (famous last words, I know).  What's the downside if you take a few months with a bunch of cash and the market holds up?  You miss out on a couple percent of gains?  Versus the downside of staying in which could be another massive fallout that puts everything back on sale.

Easier said than done, I know, as I look through my positions and try to figure out what to sell.  But is anyone else feeling this way?  Anyone actually acting on it and going heavy cash?

It seldom pays to try to time the market with long term money. Now, I can get on board with getting out of the riskier securities even if you have made a lot of money on them. But selling out of AMZN, APPL, JPM, other long term, great companies, seems silly. They may go down some but they'll go up over the long term. Why miss those up days?

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43 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I've been feeling the exact way.  Over the last month I've dropped from 15-20% cash to 0-3% buying tech on the dips.  I've given consideration to trimming 10% across the board.  My problem is that I don't want to trim any Amazon which is back to 15% of my portfolio.  I've got a decent chunk in tankers, banks/finance, oil, and stocks like Kohl's which are closer to there March levels than ATHs.  If the market just stays in this range, I suspect those stocks will do well.

One thing you could do is hedge with with some of the negative funds like TZA.  If they are triple leveraged funds, then owning a 5% position is actually like holding 15% cash position.  You can also count any future contribution you know you are going to make as part of your cash position.

If people are thinking of trimming I would not be trimming the tech giants. AMZN, APPL, GOOGL, NFLX etc etc.

If anything trim your industrial and cyclical winners (BA, CAT, DE, EMR to name a few). Those stocks will get pounded in the next downturn. I love them long term. But you can build cash taking profits from those types of cyclical names and go back in again at lower prices. Also if you have some heavy REIT profits (GLPI, MGM, WRE and the like) think about trimming those as well. Energy profits are also an area to trim to build cash. 

Typically when I build cash it will be from those types of stocks.

Unless the fundamentals change I typically always hold my consumer staples, big pharma and utilities. Those are my defensive positions that even though will also correct, they won’t drop nearly as bad and of course their yields are powerful. 

 

To recap:

When building a cash position in a long term portfolio trim:

Industrials

Materials

Consumer Cyclicals

Energy

Real Estate Investment Trusts

 

Hold:

Staples (food, tooth paste, cleaning products, paper products etc think PG, JNJ, CLX, UL, GIS, MDLZ)

Utilities (Gotta turn on the lights and AC/Heater think NEE, EXC, ED, AEP)

Big Pharma (think PFE, BMY, MRK)

Big Tech (people can’t live without their Amazon, Google and Apple...we are certainly in this reality now)

And these days your big box retailers like TGT, HD and WMT are core holdings through recessions with their growing dividends, ever fast growing online presence and simply put cult like followings now. (For the record we are a Target family and only when I am desperate do we venture into our Super Walmart).

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7 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

It seldom pays to try to time the market with long term money. Now, I can get on board with getting out of the riskier securities even if you have made a lot of money on them. But selling out of AMZN, APPL, JPM, other long term, great companies, seems silly. They may go down some but they'll go up over the long term. Why miss those up days?

Agree. But sometimes it is prudent to build some cash. I typically do it at year end in taxable accounts when we tax harvest for clients. Usually the only other time we build cash is when we feel we are near the bottom of the 9th on some far more sensitive cyclical names, have big profits and want to have some cash on hand.

IRA’s? Typically all we ever do is rebalance once a year. But again top or bottom of the 9th on certain positions, we take profits and build a little cash or if fundamental economic changes are upon us and we want to get a little more defensive. It certainly served us well heading into 2020. Everything always depends on time horizons, short, medium and long term goals. 

I like to put assets into different buckets for people too. Short term, medium term, long term and manage those buckets accordingly. 

But generally speaking I agree with you.

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8 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I’ll take my cookie and go. I’ve got a top MBA program to finish after taking last semester off and a castle to buy in West Palm, my time is limited anyways. My experience and knowledge are fantastic, way beyond my years and wildly under appreciated here. The portfolio I constructed in April is nothing short of fantastic, I’m sure none of you will even go back and find it, but it has been dominating the S&P and is also nicely hedged. Gold I’ve recommended since it was printing an 11 in front of it. 

You don’t like me bc I'm cocky, abrasive, and generally a ####, I really don’t care, I’ve earned it in life, every bit of it.

This forum has been gutted and some of its best posters haven’t been spotted in 12-24 months. The political forum makes my stomach turn trying to read It, yet alone partake in a conversation.

In general, I wish most of you well. A handful of you, meh.

Yea yea, see you tomorrow.

Man, I always laugh when people make a post that they are permanently leaving a thread. Oh wait. I did that in the Chet Diddy thread. 

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3 minutes ago, Todem said:

Agree. But sometimes it is prudent to build some cash. I typically do it at year end in taxable accounts when we tax harvest for clients. Usually they only other time we build cash is when we feel we are near the bottom of the 9th on some far more sensitive cyclical names, have big profits and want to have some cash on hand.

IRA’s? Typically all we ever do is rebalance once a year. But again top or bottom of the 9th on certain positions, we take profits and build a little cash or if fundamental economic changes are upon us and we want to get a little more defensive. It certainly served us well heading into 2020. Everything always depends on time horizons, short, medium and long term goals. 

I like to put assets into different buckets for people too. Short term, medium term, long term and manage those buckets accordingly. 

But generally speaking I agree with you.

Yeah, agreed. One way to build cash that is slower is to stop automatically reinvesting dividends. If the stock prices are high and you want to build some more cash, that's a good, albeit slow, way to stop buying high and start saving cash. 

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2 hours ago, ditka...mike ditka said:

Looking to join you guys today!

I jumped in HGEN at opening bell, 500 @ 3.34.  Not much, but enough for a taste and to maybe make a few bucks.  

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24 minutes ago, stbugs said:

@BassNBrew Are you still trading FLGT? That stock must be a dream for you. It feels like it moves up and down 5-10% daily. Up almost 9% today.

Yes and thanks for the heads up.  Just trimmed the shares I bought 8-14 for a 17.3% gain.

Hopefully I can buy them back cheaper.

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Listened to stacking Benjamin's on my run this morning, they interviewed will rhind, CEO of graniteshares. He talked for a while about HIPS. 

I normally don't like podcasts that come off like a commercial, but SB has been a solid podcast and the concept of a steady 10% dividend has promise. The fund has fallen 28% YTD, for good reason, and it has a high expense ratio, but I like it enough to put a few thousand in for the next few years.

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NRGU is around $3.  This has been a great entry point over the last month.  If OIL prices ever pop this could be a huge winner.  If you don't want to wait, I think 10% profit within 2 weeks is very likely.

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Selling off my NGS.  Wish I'd been following closer and got out earlier at $10.  Entered at $4.70 in April when I saw they were taking the PPP loan.  Knew it would be a long hold (for me) until next earnings.  Selling in the low 9s just short of a double up.  Made three PPP loan plays and all were up at least 50%.  

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5 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Yes and thanks for the heads up.  Just trimmed the shares I bought 8-14 for a 17.3% gain.

Hopefully I can buy them back cheaper.

I’ve got 500 shares that I got in February and I’m sitting on it long term. It’s funny how stocks move. This was one of my “disappointments” because even though I bought it on the way down, it went way down below $7 and then stayed around where I bought ($15) for months. Now it’s one of my top stocks for the last year.

Now my only long term disappointment just finally went green this week. SWAV that I got in May of last year finally got above $56. I trimmed a bunch to buy other stuff during the down turn but it’s nice to not see red next to what I still have.

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28 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

NRGU is around $3.  This has been a great entry point over the last month.  If OIL prices ever pop this could be a huge winner.  If you don't want to wait, I think 10% profit within 2 weeks is very likely.

Now $2.93

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9 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Now $2.93

I added some more NRGU this morning.  I know going long on leveraged ETFs is not a good idea, but I also bought some shares in my Roth I may hold a bit.  

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Thoughts on Zoom?

I started adding two weeks ago and continued to buy on the recent drop.  Last buy was $236 last week.  Today it is trading at $288 new an all time high.  This is one of those stocks that I wouldn't buy in the past because it was very expensive and had seen a huge run up.  It doubled since April.

Seems like another Facebook, Netflix, or even Amazon in the making where even though they aren't making money, everyone is using it.  6 months ago I had never heard the term Zoom meeting and now I hear it everyday.

Would love to hear from the guys who think I should bank my profits because they don't have a great path to create revenue to match this valuation.

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11 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I’ll take my cookie and go. I’ve got a top MBA program to finish after taking last semester off and a castle to buy in West Palm, my time is limited anyways. My experience and knowledge are fantastic, way beyond my years and wildly under appreciated here. The portfolio I constructed in April is nothing short of fantastic, I’m sure none of you will even go back and find it, but it has been dominating the S&P and is also nicely hedged. Gold I’ve recommended since it was printing an 11 in front of it. 

You don’t like me bc I'm cocky, abrasive, and generally a ####, I really don’t care, I’ve earned it in life, every bit of it.

This forum has been gutted and some of its best posters haven’t been spotted in 12-24 months. The political forum makes my stomach turn trying to read It, yet alone partake in a conversation.

In general, I wish most of you well. A handful of you, meh.

Yea yea, see you tomorrow.

You forgot humble

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8 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

You forgot humble

The funny part is he seems to think others here haven't "earned" confidence every bit as much as he thinks he has.

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1 hour ago, beef said:

I jumped in HGEN at opening bell, 500 @ 3.34.  Not much, but enough for a taste and to maybe make a few bucks.  

I already had some but picked up enough to make it an even number - like you, it's not much but worth a shot.

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23 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Thoughts on Zoom?

I started adding two weeks ago and continued to buy on the recent drop.  Last buy was $236 last week.  Today it is trading at $288 new an all time high.  This is one of those stocks that I wouldn't buy in the past because it was very expensive and had seen a huge run up.  It doubled since April.

Seems like another Facebook, Netflix, or even Amazon in the making where even though they aren't making money, everyone is using it.  6 months ago I had never heard the term Zoom meeting and now I hear it everyday.

Would love to hear from the guys who think I should bank my profits because they don't have a great path to create revenue to match this valuation.

Facebook made major changes to their platform, at the expense of their users, to start raising revenue a little while after they went public.  They were pretty much the only option in town for social media at the time (and still are for their version of it) so users didn't have an alternative and usership has only continued to rise.

Zoom is operating in such a crowded space I don't see how they can do the same thing.  There are so many alternatives that are just as good and unlike Facebook you're not tied to it to be a part of the community.  I don't see how they can ever bring in the revenue to justify the current market cap ESPECIALLY since they are counting on retail for this as businesses are generally already invested in better options.

That said, the thing is a meme that just keeps on running.  I sold at $275 a few days ago and was feeling pretty good about it as it dipped but now it's right back there and beyond.  To me it's in a similar bucket ot Wayfair, OSTK, etc where I really can't see the justification for the thousands of percent gains but they just keep going.  Who knows where it will end but as we continue to talk about a "bubble" to me it's exactly these kind of stocks that are going to be the thing to pop if it ever does.

Saying all this, it will probably be at $1,000/share by this time next year because that's what this market does.

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Facebook made major changes to their platform, at the expense of their users, to start raising revenue a little while after they went public.  They were pretty much the only option in town for social media at the time (and still are for their version of it) so users didn't have an alternative and usership has only continued to rise.

Zoom is operating in such a crowded space I don't see how they can do the same thing.  There are so many alternatives that are just as good and unlike Facebook you're not tied to it to be a part of the community.  I don't see how they can ever bring in the revenue to justify the current market cap ESPECIALLY since they are counting on retail for this as businesses are generally already invested in better options.

That said, the thing is a meme that just keeps on running.  I sold at $275 a few days ago and was feeling pretty good about it as it dipped but now it's right back there and beyond.  To me it's in a similar bucket ot Wayfair, OSTK, etc where I really can't see the justification for the thousands of percent gains but they just keep going.  Who knows where it will end but as we continue to talk about a "bubble" to me it's exactly these kind of stocks that are going to be the thing to pop if it ever does.

So basically the reason I'm hearing the word Zoom so much is that the non-paying consumer is using it and the paying corporate customers are using other/better platforms?

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2 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

So basically the reason I'm hearing the word Zoom so much is that the non-paying consumer is using it and the paying corporate customers are using other/better platforms?

My wife's company is using it.

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@BassNBrew and others that play MFA.  Trending back down from the $3 range 10 days ago.  Last time I got in was low 2's.  Trying to have a little patience if I jump back in, but not sure low 2's will come again.  Thoughts, and current players???   

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7 minutes ago, ChiefD said:

My wife's company is using it.

How large is your wife's company?

I'm sure there are plenty of small businesses looking for an easy solution but up to 100 users is $14.99/month which isn't going to move the needle on a stock with an $80 billion market cap even if every small business in the country used them.

The money in this kind of product is in the enterprise solutions for deep pocketed corporations that don't even look at the price tag when integrating something like this at scale and I would wager that the vast majority of those companies are much more comfortable using the superior video conferencing that comes integrated with whatever ungodly expensive software package they are already using (Microsoft, Cisco, etc).

We joke about TSLA being at 950 P/E but at least they are a clear industry leader in a fast growing sector that has incredible amount of room to run.  Not to mention the easy pivots they can make into the energy sector itself.

ZM is trading at 1500 P/E in a crowded space where there are tons of alternatives and where the best meat on the bone (big corporations) is already mostly off the table.

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

How large is your wife's company?

I'm sure there are plenty of small businesses looking for an easy solution but up to 100 users is $14.99/month which isn't going to move the needle on a stock with an $80 billion market cap even if every small business in the country used them.

The money in this kind of product is in the enterprise solutions for deep pocketed corporations that don't even look at the price tag when integrating something like this and I would wager that the vast majority (all?) of those companies are much more comfortable using the superior video conferencing that comes integrated with whatever ungodly expensive software package they are already using (Microsoft, Cisco, etc).

They are pretty large. I have no clue how many users they have or what, but that's what she's been using.

I did a quick search on Zoom and it looks like they had 622 million in revenue last year. I have no idea how that translates to stock price. 

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3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

How large is your wife's company?

I'm sure there are plenty of small businesses looking for an easy solution but up to 100 users is $14.99/month which isn't going to move the needle on a stock with an $80 billion market cap even if every small business in the country used them.

The money in this kind of product is in the enterprise solutions for deep pocketed corporations that don't even look at the price tag when integrating something like this at scale and I would wager that the vast majority of those companies are much more comfortable using the superior video conferencing that comes integrated with whatever ungodly expensive software package they are already using (Microsoft, Cisco, etc).

We joke about TSLA being at 950 P/E but at least they are a clear industry leader in a fast growing sector that has increidble amount of room to run.  Not to mention the easy pivots they can make into the energy sector itself.

ZM is trading at 1500 P/E in a crowded space where there are tons of alternatives and where the best meat on the bone (big corporations) is already mostly off the table.

My wife works at a large university that uses zoom.  My company used WebEx, but multiple clients (larger companies and health systems) are on zoom. My main client transitioned from WebEx to zoom as their online meeting platform this summer.

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fyi...Discover dropped more today than the amount of dividend they paid (44 cents).  We were discussing this when the stock was in the $54 range and I sold most of my holdings between there at $56.  I'll begin requiring around $50.

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Facebook made major changes to their platform, at the expense of their users, to start raising revenue a little while after they went public.  They were pretty much the only option in town for social media at the time (and still are for their version of it) so users didn't have an alternative and usership has only continued to rise.

Zoom is operating in such a crowded space I don't see how they can do the same thing.  There are so many alternatives that are just as good and unlike Facebook you're not tied to it to be a part of the community.  I don't see how they can ever bring in the revenue to justify the current market cap ESPECIALLY since they are counting on retail for this as businesses are generally already invested in better options.

That said, the thing is a meme that just keeps on running.  I sold at $275 a few days ago and was feeling pretty good about it as it dipped but now it's right back there and beyond.  To me it's in a similar bucket ot Wayfair, OSTK, etc where I really can't see the justification for the thousands of percent gains but they just keep going.  Who knows where it will end but as we continue to talk about a "bubble" to me it's exactly these kind of stocks that are going to be the thing to pop if it ever does.

Saying all this, it will probably be at $1,000/share by this time next year because that's what this market does.

What are the better options? I know there's one that scales into the thousands of users better, and they provide you with live support all through your presentation. It's great for the conferences that are getting canceled, where people want to present to large, dispersed groups. Can't remember the company. But it's also thousands of dollars per call iirc. On smaller scale, I don't think anybody's better than Zoom (assuming their security issues are fixed). Does that mean companies are going to switch to them when they already have Teams or Skype? Probably not. Unless they listen to their users. Skype is an abomination.

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4 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

So basically the reason I'm hearing the word Zoom so much is that the non-paying consumer is using it and the paying corporate customers are using other/better platforms?

Completely incorrect on the second part. If it was all non paying would they be upping their revenue forecasts to $2B a year for next year? This isn’t a case of a company that isn’t making money. Their revenue is skyrocketing because of the pandemic. I’ve used other video conferencing and some of them are awful compared to Zoom like Webex and Google (the worst).

They are clearly in reinvest mode for earnings but acting like they aren’t generating revenue yet is wrong. I think their 2020 revenue is going to triple or quadruple their 2019 revenue.

That said, my ZM is in my taxable account so I don’t plan on selling until October at the earliest to ensure long term capital gains. Their next earnings call is the end of this month and it will be huge as well. Depending on their forecast and we’re the stock is in October, I may trim some.

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3 minutes ago, SouthJersey said:

My wife works at a large university that uses zoom.  My company used WebEx, but multiple clients (larger companies and health systems) are on zoom. My main client transitioned from WebEx to zoom as their online meeting platform this summer.

And WebEx is worse than Skype imo.

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31 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Thoughts on Zoom?

I started adding two weeks ago and continued to buy on the recent drop.  Last buy was $236 last week.  Today it is trading at $288 new an all time high.  This is one of those stocks that I wouldn't buy in the past because it was very expensive and had seen a huge run up.  It doubled since April.

Seems like another Facebook, Netflix, or even Amazon in the making where even though they aren't making money, everyone is using it.  6 months ago I had never heard the term Zoom meeting and now I hear it everyday.

Would love to hear from the guys who think I should bank my profits because they don't have a great path to create revenue to match this valuation.

Zoom has grabbed a ton of momentum in the video conferencing industry because it delivered a much better, easier and more feature rich experience than the alternatives. Super easy to use and much more powerful and flexible than most other video chat services, and it was far beyond the video capabilities built into other collaboration tools, such as Microsoft Teams or Google G-Suite.

However, Microsoft, Google and Cisco are catching up very quickly. Microsoft in particular has an extremely aggressive roadmap for new video features within Teams. I still think Zoom is generally a better experience today that's more feature-rich and flexible, but that advantage won't last for long. And while Zoom will continue to add more differentiating features, the alternatives will become at least good enough very quickly.  And the problem for Zoom is that a lot of their customers are buying Zoom on top of one of those other collaboration apps.  A lot of Microsoft Teams customers are paying both Microsoft and Zoom because Zoom was so far ahead and the Teams video experience was limited.  As that gap shrinks, I think many of those customers will get tired of paying two bills, and will consolidate down to just one collaboration app, which will be Teams or G-Suite because Zoom is not a full collaboration app.  

I think it would make a ton of sense for Zoom and Slack to combine so they can offer one unified collaboration service.  But barring that, looking at Zoom's massive valuation in light of the pressures they'll face as competitors catch up would cause me to shy away from the stock.

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12 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I’ll take my cookie and go. I’ve got a top MBA program to finish after taking last semester off and a castle to buy in West Palm, my time is limited anyways. My experience and knowledge are fantastic, way beyond my years and wildly under appreciated here. The portfolio I constructed in April is nothing short of fantastic, I’m sure none of you will even go back and find it, but it has been dominating the S&P and is also nicely hedged. Gold I’ve recommended since it was printing an 11 in front of it. 

You don’t like me bc I'm cocky, abrasive, and generally a ####, I really don’t care, I’ve earned it in life, every bit of it.

This forum has been gutted and some of its best posters haven’t been spotted in 12-24 months. The political forum makes my stomach turn trying to read It, yet alone partake in a conversation.

In general, I wish most of you well. A handful of you, meh.

Yea yea, see you tomorrow.

FWIW, I like you for all the reasons you mention. 

 

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5 minutes ago, ChiefD said:

They are pretty large. I have no clue how many users they have or what, but that's what she's been using.

I did a quick search on Zoom and it looks like they had 622 million in revenue last year. I have no idea how that translates to stock price. 

They had over $300M last quarter. Their revenue  was growing but it exploded due to WFH. I’m pretty sure they forecast $1B this year and $2B next year.

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15 minutes ago, beef said:

@BassNBrew and others that play MFA.  Trending back down from the $3 range 10 days ago.  Last time I got in was low 2's.  Trying to have a little patience if I jump back in, but not sure low 2's will come again.  Thoughts, and current players???   

I reduced my position at that time by about 50%.  My target price is $4, but will half again at $3.50.  I'm going the patient route and not re-buying what I sold until it's closer to $2.50.  The did cut their dividend from 20 cents a share to 5 cents.

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12 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

How large is your wife's company?

I'm sure there are plenty of small businesses looking for an easy solution but up to 100 users is $14.99/month which isn't going to move the needle on a stock with an $80 billion market cap even if every small business in the country used them.

The money in this kind of product is in the enterprise solutions for deep pocketed corporations that don't even look at the price tag when integrating something like this at scale and I would wager that the vast majority of those companies are much more comfortable using the superior video conferencing that comes integrated with whatever ungodly expensive software package they are already using (Microsoft, Cisco, etc).

We joke about TSLA being at 950 P/E but at least they are a clear industry leader in a fast growing sector that has incredible amount of room to run.  Not to mention the easy pivots they can make into the energy sector itself.

ZM is trading at 1500 P/E in a crowded space where there are tons of alternatives and where the best meat on the bone (big corporations) is already mostly off the table.

TSLA is a bit different because they have been around a while and have been making money. ZM’s PE is crazy high because a) they are very new and have been reinvesting like crazy (their margins will be like other software companies) and they’ve only had 1 quarter of the hyper growth. Their Q2 earnings forecast is for the same amount as their last 4 quarters combined. They are still in hyper growth mode but by the end of the year that PE should be 1/4 of what it is now and that’s without trying to maximize it yet.

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2 minutes ago, stbugs said:

They are clearly in reinvest mode for earnings but acting like they aren’t generating revenue yet is wrong. I think their 2020 revenue is going to triple or quadruple their 2019 revenue.

Does tripling or quadrupling revenue matter when the revenue that we're talking about tripling was $330 million on a company with an $80 billion market cap currently trading at 1500x multiples?

Fundamentally buying Zoom right now to me is a lot like drafting DK Metcalf 1st overall in a dynasty startup draft.  Yeah maybe he'll be the next Randy Moss and end up living up to that pick, but you're already buying him at his absolute ceiling.  Anything other than the absolute best case scenario imaginable ends up being an overpay.

And that's not even accounting for the notion that several of the competitors and potential competitors in the crowded market we're talking about own the devices that these solutions are being used on, so as we move forward they can either push people to those options or integrate them well enough that people prefer it.

Of course all of that is disregarding memes, momentum, and name recognition which play a massive role in this current market.  But fundamentally Zoom has the same market cap as companies doing $40+ billion annually in revenue and I just don't see that kind of realistic upside for Zoom or anything close to it.

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