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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I've been hearing this all year and I still think it's incorrect. Every previous housing collapse has been proceeded by over supply. We had a huge housing shortage coming into the year and shutting things down for COVID during the build season did nothing to help that. Homeownership % had been recovering from 08 be was still below long term averages. I posted of bunch on this in the spring in the housing thread.
Curious though, everything you stated would seem to work against Marriott. I'm also still see a relative empty parking at the Homewood across the street.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I'm not projecting a "housing collapse" per se, but there could be pockets like Vegas and the Bay Area and New York City. Regardless, housing is stunted typically with bad employment, which leads to oversupply...the root cause is low employment typically. Over supply is a not a root cause.
To summarize: small business failures & high unemployment = oversupply = bad for housing = bad for stock market
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Does it change things at all that the unemployed people right now still have pretty solid income with the stimulus bills? I would imagine that typically high unemployment leads to oversupply of housing because people out of work can no longer afford their mortgage and have to sell. Right now it doesn't seem like unemployed folks are selling en masse because most can still afford their mortgage with their stimulus money.
Let’s see, what have I bought lately to trade? KMI, T, TCO, AYX, AGRX. Anything else that I can take short-term profits on.
TripItUp
Footballguy
No, it doesn't change things for me. Eventually people aren't going to be able to afford their homes IMHO. If it was as easy as printing money with no economic repercussions, why would anybody need to work? We could just print money and everybody could live off the govt.
Of course, this is just a prediction. It's difficult to know exactly what our govt. will do and what the macroeconomic impact will be.
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
RLFTF is up 16% to .653USD on the Swiss market.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Capella
Footballguy
Got upgraded from OTC pink to some other OTC market. I don’t know the implications but seem good.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
The Swiss market trades more volume than the US market in RLFTF so it's a good indicator of where the US market will open. With CYDY, the German market trades a tiny percentage of the US market so it's a poor indicator of where the US market will open.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Utz potato chips going public today. People love Utz chips.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/potato-chip-maker-utz-is-going-public-on-monday-heres-what-its-ceo-says-51598871067?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/potato-chip-maker-utz-is-going-public-on-monday-heres-what-its-ceo-says-51598871067?mod=newsviewer_click_seemore
Yeah, German market for CYDY is almost useless. It’s more reactionary and the volume is in the thousands. Bid and Asks can be almost 10% apart as are the last price on the different markets there. The only time it was useful is when the stock had premarket big news that moved the price a lot.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I've been waiting for the Vegas housing market to drop but it's done exactly the opposite. I understand your point of view but I'm not sure if Vegas falls into that category for one major reason. People are leaving and will continue to leave California in volume. Vegas is one of pockets that is picking up some of those people that are leaving. I do think that your other examples of the Bay Area and New York City are spot in. I don't think there will be collapses there--but there will be pullbacks for sure.
beef
Footballguy
Same here with TD. Did a restart thinking it was my connection but that didn't fix anything.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Weird. That’s the only one I’ve never had a problem with. Using the iPhone app if that matters.
@BassNBrew Sold my FLGT. Taking my 80% gain for 6 months and locking it in. I will continue to watch as I may jump back in if it gets closer to $20. Could still be a long term play but I think it’s got significant downward pressure. Might jump back above $30 but I don’t think we’ll get anywhere near the highs after the Abbott testing. I may also make sure that if I dabble it is before their earnings. If they don’t come out with news that their testing has slowed down they may surprise again for Q3 and get a nice pop. Again, not day trading just building up some cash and locking in a nice gain. I’d like to say I should have been smarter and locked in gains before but their Q2 earnings and forecast were well above and rosy so it looked like it would continue. Short term seems like more pain though.
beef
Footballguy
I'm on a laptop. Main TD site working better now, but still slow. Gave up on TorS for today.
Nope, TD main site is down for me.
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I think there will be but it’s certainly not today. Apple and Tesla right now aren’t being drive to by fundamentals. That will happen eventually.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
I haven't been able login into Schwab for the last 5 minutes. I'm on a laptop.
EDIT: I got in by googling Schwab
EDIT: I got in by googling Schwab
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Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
First good news is that Amazon has at least been approved by the FAA for drone delivery.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/31/amazon-prime-now-drone-delivery-fleet-gets-faa-approval.html
Would be great if UAVS is the beneficiary of some of this.
LOL, Tesla is funny. I’m watching a video of analysts and the host asks one why the stock is up 10% and she says she doesn’t have a good answer for it and the next guy talks about how splits tend to be done for stocks doing well (duh), but doesn’t mention that it’s just an accounting change. The last guy does say that. He said Elon’s always ahead of the curve and has a package tied to stock value so he’ll do what he can to see all of that package (basically make sure he gets fully paid).
Best part is one of the articles below the video is that same last analyst who said Tesla is years ahead of the competition but then at the end of that discussion he says he’s a long term bear. Comical how the title of the article with no context glosses over the part about being bearish.
Such an interesting stock. I believe it’s now up close to 70% after announcing the split. That’s so frothy you can’t even see the coffee anymore. It’s a pure momentum play right now, way ahead of fundamentals and future growth.
Best part is one of the articles below the video is that same last analyst who said Tesla is years ahead of the competition but then at the end of that discussion he says he’s a long term bear. Comical how the title of the article with no context glosses over the part about being bearish.
Such an interesting stock. I believe it’s now up close to 70% after announcing the split. That’s so frothy you can’t even see the coffee anymore. It’s a pure momentum play right now, way ahead of fundamentals and future growth.
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Sand
Footballguy
Stock splits do tend to do well and it is a financial move. I dispute a bit that it's a trick. It does have a purpose (not all places have fractional shares setup and even then many don't know about it).
Just like TAIL - even if it's a Pinto, it is a vehicle .
BassNBrew
Footballguy
What you say makes sense, but the past collapses all show an oversupply or high ownership rate is required to be in place.
Thanks for the information. I'll just sit on what I have and drastically decrease my purchases going forward. This has been an utter disaster over the last week.
Sand
Footballguy
Like BnB said we're starting this with a massive supply crunch. And since housing is owned by those of at least some means (the unemployment issue has hit lower incomes - i.e. renters, harder), I suspect we'll see less foreclosures than last time around.
I do think we'll see the hollowing out of some metro areas. Heck, I'm getting letters from realtors saying - "there's no supply in your area and my clients are looking for a house like yours. Please sell to me!" Never had that before. We are considering selling our rental - it's in a good, isolated spot and might command some premium right now.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
I've known people who've bought a couple of hundreds of dollars worth of Utz chips to bring back to Wisconsin. Companies that generate that kind of customer fanaticism usually do well when they expand. Also, that kind of customer is likely to buy the stock as soon as it is available.
Don Hutson
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
It has but unless you were following ABT’s EUA as well no chance to know. It was all pointing up. I’ve got a bit of a different perspective since I bought at high $15. Sucks to lose a triple but I’ve had sell too highs and too lows. It happens. If I had dumped FSLY at $70 when it dipped I would have missed out on the run back up to $90. I love the acquisition they made to expand clients and things to sell. Still holding that. I sold off a bunch of TTD for a nice gain but then it doubled. Luckily still have 110 shares so can’t complain too much.
If it was easy...
beef
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
It's surprising how many people who think they know investing are surprised that many brokerages allow partial shares. For that reason alone the prices will continue to rise.
The funniest thing to me, is I looked it up on Yahoo, it wasn't showing, then I Google searched it
For the first time ever (I think) I bought literally one share. Happened to have $20 cash sitting in an account
It is a trick in terms of making the stock move due to the split. Remember that I am freely admitting that there is a reason for the split (stock run up) but when Apple and Tesla are already along the most widely held and highly traded stocks the not fractional argument is silly. You are trying to tell me that Apple at $500 is going to love because now people can afford to own at $125? C’mon that’s a BS argument when Apple’s average volume was 160M shares a day.$80B trading a day and people who can only afford $125 a share are moving the stock? Tesla was trading 70M a day, $140B a day. Again, people who can only afford $500 a share aren’t making a dent in that volume.
I understand why they do it and it’s signaled a solid run up already. That said Tesla’s gone up 70% after the split announcement. They were actually down after the earnings report/assumption of S&P inclusion and the split changed the direction. 70% is crazy for a split, or can you explain the financial move that makes that make sense?
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The Ref
Footballguy
I’ve seen a compelling case where Tesla makes ~1.7M cars in 2022 and gets between 60-70B in revenue from them with huge operating leverage gains. They are a taser growing company than amazon and when Amazon had roughly the same amount of revenue were valued at 700B. Tesla is currently valued at “only” 450B.
point being - I don’t think it’s as frothy as you make it out to be so long as you think the projections are realistic. It may be ahead of its self but obviously the market is forward looking. If you take the car creation/sales projections in 6-8-10 years we might have a 3T company on our hands.
im not calling for that - my point is there were people saying similar things about amazon 10 years ago.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Frothy is ahead of itself. You are looking at best case scenario years out. Yes, it could get there but it might not, the risk is what allows a stock to grow.
Also, Tesla is absolutely not growing as fast as Amazon right now. Tesla’s sales growth 2018 to 2019 was 15% and 2020 is on pace to be flat with 2019. Amazon over both of those is up 20% for 2019 and on pace for 30% for 2020. Amazon is more profitable and has 10x the revenue and is only worth 4x what Tesla is. Tesla has run way too far due to S&P 500 inclusion and the split. You can post justifications but right now people are reaching to show why they should be worth what they are.
Last note is that you said Amazon was at $750B when they had the same revenue as Tesla. That’s wrong. Tesla’s revenue right now is $25.7B and they are worth $450B. Amazon right now has $320B in revenue and is worth $1.7T. When Amazon was at $750B that was at various times in 2018. So Amazon’s revenue was almost 10x Tesla’s (over $230B) when they were worth $750B. Again, frothy.
Sand
Footballguy
I don’t doubt the Robinhood affect but they do fractional shares so again the split is meaningless. What isn’t meaningless is having the momentum and people wanted a slice of the pie. Only problem is if you trade way above fundamentals the dip can be more severe when all that love moves on.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I think you and several of us have been talking past each other on this. We all know the split is fundamentally meaningless, and we all know that a split is a dumb reason to buy. What several of us are saying is that there are more than enough retail investors who don't feel that way and they are a large enough pool to move the needle, if even temporarily.
eta: it does make options more accessible, though. That's a real difference.
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Oh, I get the momentum and that’s why I call it frothy. There’s definitely talking past each other. I just disagree that these two statements are the same:McBokonon said:
1. A split makes the stock more affordable and retail investors can now jump in and move the stock price.
2. The split news made the stock hit the news and retail investors jumped in assuming the stock would go up on the news and the stock became a momentum play.
I believe #1 is false. There’s no way people who couldn’t get in at the high price have enough $$$s to move stocks that had $220B in daily volume. I believe #2 or FOMO is what’s taken place. I mean look at the volume and run up pre split. If affordability was an issue RH wouldn’t already be in it.
