Stock Thread

[ericttspikes 2,587]

GMHI finally moving.

[Sideshow Bob 642]

3 hours ago, Steeler said:

Congrats on this call.  I sold too early and I hate looking at this thing now, lol.  You can't go broke taking a profit and all that, but doubling my money would have been better.

I, too, owned it for about 5 minutes. Happy to see it doing well, though.

It's not the things I sold too early or too late that bother me, for some reason. Sure, it would have been great to get out of CYDY at $10.00 or to still be owning this. Or SE.

It's the decisions not to buy something that bother me. And maybe they weren't wrong. I know I put my money somewhere else when I looked at and decided not to grab MSFT at $45-$50 back in like 2015. And maybe that worked out OK after all. But it annoys me that I made the decision not to buy it. Or when I looked at LULU in '17 and after an earnings pop said, "Nah, $70 is too expensive. I'll wait for it to pull back." Dumb###.

[FreeBaGeL 8,826]

3 hours ago, General Malaise said:

I don't hate the IDEA of cruising.  I've been on a cruise.  I hated it.  I hate cruising.  

But the stock offers me what exactly?  A potential for the return to glory days?  I don't get a dividend to hold it, so I'm buying it just in hopes that people flock back to cruises and the stock price returns to levels pre-pandemic.  I'm not saying that WON'T happen - it probably will - but when?  In the meantime, I'd rather put my money to work in stocks that I believe have near term catalysts not already embedded in the stock, companies with growth potential not yet realized or companies that will pay me 5% just to hold their stock and bounce in a narrow trading range.  

I rarely if ever play transport stocks, I have dabbled in oil and gas and only been burned and I generally avoid cyclicals.  If you think cruise lines are coming back in the wake of a vaccine, then you are absolutely right, this is a great entry point.  I have no doubt that there are many many people who miss cruising and are champing at the bit to go on one.  Not the way I'd prefer to spend my vacation dollars, but then again, I don't quite understand myriad things that are popular with the people on our planet.  Looking at you, action figure movies.

 

Just playing devil's advocate here as I don't really have anything invested, but there is a long, long ways between the glory days and where the stock is now.  I think that is probably the allure.

Even if you think the cruise industry will be cut by half long-term (probably ludicrous) that still leaves the cruise stocks room to run up like 80% before they hit half of what their value was before.  They could double from here and still be 60% off their highs.

I'm not some cruise guy, and far from an expert on stonks, but I think most people expect we are pretty much at the peak of Covid.  We may go up a little more over the next couple months but with a vaccine now very likely for next year it seems extremely likely that Covid will be much less of an issue next winter than it was this winter.  It looks like the big cruise companies are in pretty good position to survive at this point which, realistically the biggest risk with them was not the state of the industry as a whole (given that at their lows they were priced at 1/6th of the March highs and no one expects the cruise industry to shrink to 1/6 of what it was) but rather the risk that they would not have the capital to survive the cruising shutdown.

So realistically, two years from now where will the cruise industry be compared to where it was pre-covid?  I mean CCL could double from where it is now and it was still be at a 40% decline from where it was in March.  Do we expect the cruise industry to be cut by more than half long-term?  If not then an 80%-100% increase from CCL's current price over the next two years seems entirely reasonable.

I can definitely see plenty of short term catalysts as vaccines get distributed, cases decline in the spring, PRs come out about people cruising, etc.  Stuff like banks and hotels have already recovered like 80% of their losses from March.  The biggest spikes on the likely forthcoming good covid news over the next year are probably going to be biggest for the stuff that is still super beaten down.

Edited November 20, 2020 by FreeBaGeL

[Sideshow Bob 642]

4 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

There is a long, long ways between the glory days and where the stock is now.  I think that is probably the allure.

Even if you think the cruise industry will be cut by half long-term (probably ludicrous) that still leaves the cruise stocks room to run up like 80% before that hit half of what their value was before.  They could double from here and still be 60% off their highs.

I'm not some cruise guy, and far from an expert on stonks, but I think most people expect we are pretty much at the peak of Covid.  We may go up a little more over the next couple months but with a vaccine now very likely for next year it seems extremely likely that Covid will be much less of an issue next winter than it was this winter. It looks like the big cruise companies are in pretty good position to survive at this point which, realistically the biggest risk with them was not the state of the industry as a whole (given that at their lows they were priced at 1/6th of the March highs and no one expects the cruise industry to shrink to 1/6 of what it was) but rather the risk that they would not have the capital to survive the cruising shutdown.

So realistically, two years from now where will the cruise industry be compared to where it was pre-covid?  I mean CCL could double from where it is now and it was still be at a 40% decline from where it was in March.  Do we expect the cruise industry to be cut by more than half long-term?  If not then an 80%-100% increase from CCL's current price over the next two years seems entirely reasonable.

Does it? I thought CCL had a secondary offering coming up. No?

[ghostguy123 3,802]

21 hours ago, Shatner! said:

Roblox going IPO. My 6th grader loves that game. 

When will it be available to the public?

[stbugs 2,973]

9 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

I, too, owned it for about 5 minutes. Happy to see it doing well, though.

It's not the things I sold too early or too late that bother me, for some reason. Sure, it would have been great to get out of CYDY at $10.00 or to still be owning this. Or SE.

It's the decisions not to buy something that bother me. And maybe they weren't wrong. I know I put my money somewhere else when I looked at and decided not to grab MSFT at $45-$50 back in like 2015. And maybe that worked out OK after all. But it annoys me that I made the decision not to buy it. Or when I looked at LULU in '17 and after an earnings pop said, "Nah, $70 is too expensive. I'll wait for it to pull back." Dumb###.

Selling too early has probably cost me the most money this year and I’m sort of close to doubling up this year. This missed buys do hurt as well like SE and TSLA back in March/April along with a lot of others, but I also did buy ZM, FSLY and others. You can’t buy every winner although it does suck when you had plenty of cash and watch them double and triple and got scared of a double dip. Selling too early feels worse to me. Except for FLGT, I still own a good chunk of everything I’ve sold some early so that takes the edge off. Man, why did I ever sell a share of TTD!

[stbugs 2,973]

9 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

Does it? I thought CCL had a secondary offering coming up. No?

Yeah, I’d be worried about 1.5 years of almost no revenue and ships sitting idle. How much of their reserve is left and how much maintenance is needed to get ships back up to speed and to be safe? I can’t imagine they are in good shape. Hey, they can draw down available credit and sell shares but that means they aren’t financially close to where they were. If they can get any new ships for a few years does that impact revenue a lot?

I’m not a super expert investor but I find it much easier to understand growing stocks than trying to find value and hoping a company comes back.

[Sideshow Bob 642]

I have little doubt people will go on cruises again and companies will profit from cruising again. Will it be these companies and the people who are currently shareholders? :shurg:

[ghostguy123 3,802]

18 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

I have little doubt people will go on cruises again and companies will profit from cruising again. Will it be these companies and the people who are currently shareholders? :shurg:

Maybe they will adopt a model of less people and charge more money.

I would never go on a cruise mainly because of how crowded they are, even pre covid. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by ghostguy123

[Capella 29,581]

1 hour ago, Sideshow Bob said:

I have little doubt people will go on cruises again and companies will profit from cruising again. Will it be these companies and the people who are currently shareholders? :shurg:

I plan to look at the financials before I invest but as far as name recognition, I believe royal Caribbean has an extremely strong brand. Carnival is the cheaper option that more people will be able to afford. 

[BassNBrew 10,571]

2 hours ago, ericttspikes said:

GMHI finally moving.

Unfortunately I own the Gores that has been mimicking that dog Amazon 

1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Just playing devil's advocate here as I don't really have anything invested, but there is a long, long ways between the glory days and where the stock is now.  I think that is probably the allure.

Even if you think the cruise industry will be cut by half long-term (probably ludicrous) that still leaves the cruise stocks room to run up like 80% before they hit half of what their value was before.  They could double from here and still be 60% off their highs.

I'm not some cruise guy, and far from an expert on stonks, but I think most people expect we are pretty much at the peak of Covid.  We may go up a little more over the next couple months but with a vaccine now very likely for next year it seems extremely likely that Covid will be much less of an issue next winter than it was this winter.  It looks like the big cruise companies are in pretty good position to survive at this point which, realistically the biggest risk with them was not the state of the industry as a whole (given that at their lows they were priced at 1/6th of the March highs and no one expects the cruise industry to shrink to 1/6 of what it was) but rather the risk that they would not have the capital to survive the cruising shutdown.

So realistically, two years from now where will the cruise industry be compared to where it was pre-covid?  I mean CCL could double from where it is now and it was still be at a 40% decline from where it was in March.  Do we expect the cruise industry to be cut by more than half long-term?  If not then an 80%-100% increase from CCL's current price over the next two years seems entirely reasonable.

I can definitely see plenty of short term catalysts as vaccines get distributed, cases decline in the spring, PRs come out about people cruising, etc.  Stuff like banks and hotels have already recovered like 80% of their losses from March.  The biggest spikes on the likely forthcoming good covid news over the next year are probably going to be biggest for the stuff that is still super beaten down.

Keep in mind that most companies have fixed costs and the profit comes from the last 10-20% of sales. Getting back to 50% revenue doesn’t keep them afloat. 

[stbugs 2,973]

50 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Unfortunately I own the Gores that has been mimicking that dog Amazon 

Keep in mind that most companies have fixed costs and the profit comes from the last 10-20% of sales. Getting back to 50% revenue doesn’t keep them afloat. 

I own both, but I’ll add some things I’ve noticed in terms of long term investing. While there are some dogs and sometimes you have to cut bait (LK comes to mind), if you don’t give a stock you like time you can miss out. I’ll give you two examples:

SWAV - I bought a little late in the 50s while it was going up. Should have jumped in high 30s/low 40s, but I bought. Traded the rest of 2019 and early 2020 in the 40s. I sold some during the spring dip to buy some other things but kept a bunch. Hit a low of 22 so way down. Got back to 40s pretty quick and then in the last 4 months went from 40s to high 90s today.

APPN - Bought in October 2019 with a bunch of other tech stocks in the 40s. Got up to 60, down to 30 in March and was still in the 40s in July. Flat for almost a year. Started running early October and even with a dip, it’s now about triple at 125. So even though it was a dog compared to say OKTA and MDB, it’s blown by them return wise.

Those anecdotes aren’t just for you, felt like sharing for others because when you look at some great returns, they aren’t usually steady gains over years so it’s easy to miss the bulk of returns if you miss the best month in a year.

[CR69 1,400]

Going to short Merck based on Whyatts post in the covid thread 

[stbugs 2,973]

1 hour ago, CR69 said:

Going to short Merck based on Whyatts post in the covid thread 

🤣 Funny that he posted that in there instead of these two threads. I know he’d never admit it but based on his posts, he’s got to be down a #### ton on HGEN. Now he’s in on some other drug?

[Whyatt 260]

8 hours ago, CR69 said:

Going to short Merck based on Whyatts post in the covid thread 

 

6 hours ago, stbugs said:

🤣 Funny that he posted that in there instead of these two threads. I know he’d never admit it but based on his posts, he’s got to be down a #### ton on HGEN. Now he’s in on some other drug?

I guess these are excellent posts for a stock discussion thread. Interesting to see I live rent free in both your heads.

So all my posts trying to expose the risks and deception related to Cydy weren’t helpful huh. Seems you both gave up on that one and sold. I wonder why, good news is 2 weeks away, most likely. Fundamentals look great, just read their 8k.

Queue all the bad faith arguments and personal attacks, seems they are allowed in this thread.

[BassNBrew 10,571]

6 minutes ago, Whyatt said:

 

I guess these are excellent posts for a stock discussion thread. Interesting to see I live rent free in both your heads.

So all my posts trying to expose the risks and deception related to Cydy weren’t helpful huh. Seems you both gave up on that one and sold. I wonder why, good news is 2 weeks away, most likely. Fundamentals look great, just read their 8k.

Queue all the bad faith arguments and personal attacks, seems they are allowed in this thread.

Good news for what company?  I don't live inside your head.

[stbugs 2,973]

1 minute ago, Whyatt said:

 

I guess these are excellent posts for a stock discussion thread. Interesting to see I live rent free in both your heads.

So all my posts trying to expose the risks and deception related to Cydy weren’t helpful huh. Seems you both gave up on that one and sold. I wonder why, good news is 2 weeks away, most likely. Fundamentals look great, just read their 8k.

Queue all the bad faith arguments and personal attacks, seems they are allowed in this thread.

Hey, I made a good chunk. I’m not mad at all and believe me you had nothing to do with me selling. Just tired of waiting and didn’t want to lose my profits because I missed the $10. You want HGEN stock to do well just like the CYDY guys wanted to make money. You’re not Mother Theresa and that’s OK, no need to hide it. This thread is about making good stock picks. Even I thought about buying HGEN but very glad I didn’t.

As to this one he made a funny post, I laughed. Don’t worry, I don’t think about you at all, just remember way too many stupid things like posts.

[stbugs 2,973]

10 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Good news for what company?  I don't live inside your head.

You are in mine man, I hope that can be enough for you. BFFs as long as you apologize to Jeff.

[FUBAR 3,203]

On 11/20/2020 at 12:11 PM, stbugs said:

. If you can make the easy money do it because 95% of these companies will be worthless in 5 years.

Probably true. I'm just in Tesla and QCLN, and not too worried about those going to zero (probably just let them ride). But that's the double edged sword of using just 15% of my money to try to beat the market. When we do, it's not big enough to get really excited. Wins are fun of course, more along the lines of getting them right than actually making much $$$. Still, other than my bone headed decision to buy triple short ETFs, it's been a decent year for the funds.

Edited November 23, 2020 by FUBAR

[stbugs 2,973]

1 minute ago, FUBAR said:

Probably true. I'm just in Tesla and QCLN, I'm not too worried about those going to zero. I'm inclined to just let them ride. I guess that's the double edged sword of using just 15% of my money to try to beat the market. When we do, it's not big enough to get really excited. Wins are fun of course, more along the lines of getting them right than actually making much $$$. Still, other than my bone headed decision to buy triple short ETFs, it's been a decent year for the funds.

I see no issues there. I’ve been around awhile even though it’s just the past two years that I’ve really been into individual stocks. I’ve just seen so many hot things and typically there are way more “winners” during the hot time and then a couple or a handful actually win long term. The funny part is that the early guys don’t always win. Look at Google and all the search engines before them. So many worth a lot and basically poof. All the alt coins to Bitcoin? Look at that other thread.

That said, I would be concerned a bit about Tesla’s market cap. China is big for them and seems like they have a lot of competition and the same in the US it appears. I think they are a good company with a good product but they went up so much for S&P inclusion (twice actually!) and the stock split. I wonder if the stock will either dip a bit or stay flat for a while.

[stbugs 2,973]

By the way, futures all up a little, like a quarter of a percent so no real indication on tomorrow since AH tends to be way less accurate.

[KGB 125]

Wake me up when Amazon splits

[KGB 125]

Also, not sure if I posted but in for 100 shares of AVGO @ $355 a bit back. 

Broadcom Inc. is an American designer, developer, manufacturer and global supplier of a wide range of semiconductor and infrastructure software products. Broadcom's product offerings serve the data center, networking, software, broadband, wireless, and storage and industrial markets. Tan Hock Eng is the company's president and CEO. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California. Avago Technologies Limited took the Broadcom part of the Broadcom Corporation name after acquiring it in January 2016. The ticker symbol AVGO that represented old Avago now represents the new merged entity. The Broadcom Corporation ticker symbol BRCM was retired. Broadcom has a long history of corporate transactions with other prominent corporations mainly in the high-technology space. In October 2019, the European Union issued an interim antitrust order against Broadcom concerning anticompetitive business practices which allegedly violate European Union competition law

 

$383 current

Edited November 23, 2020 by KGB

[KGB 125]

Also in for 25 shares of NIO at $41.12 a bit ago

 

At least its not a scam like Nikola

[Capella 29,581]

42 minutes ago, KGB said:

Wake me up when Amazon splits

People still expecting this? Can’t see it. 

[KGB 125]

3 minutes ago, Capella said:

People still expecting this? Can’t see it. 

AMZN

Not really.  Was hoping when apple and tesla did.  Bezos doesnt care for splitting I dont think.

Doesnt mean I cant dream lol

Edited November 23, 2020 by KGB

[KGB 125]

adding 6 shares of AMZN at market open

[KGB 125]

SO, 

As of TODAY.  What's your best pick for next 12 months?

 

I like PLTR for something fairly safe

Actually, Im going in on the open.

Edited November 23, 2020 by KGB

[Dwayne Hoover 370]

4 hours ago, Whyatt said:

 

I guess these are excellent posts for a stock discussion thread. Interesting to see I live rent free in both your heads.

So all my posts trying to expose the risks and deception related to Cydy weren’t helpful huh. Seems you both gave up on that one and sold. I wonder why, good news is 2 weeks away, most likely. Fundamentals look great, just read their 8k.

Queue all the bad faith arguments and personal attacks, seems they are allowed in this thread.

HGEN seems every bit as risky though.  I'll give you the government connection but I am not convinced at all that lenzilumab is a better drug than leronlimab.  I hope both get approved though, so I'm still rooting for you Whyatt.

[stbugs 2,973]

On 11/20/2020 at 12:09 PM, General Malaise said:

Good little day for BEEM! 

Look premarket. Holy cow. Anything EV related whether real or not is flying. It’s as if everyone in the world will be replacing their current cars and tractors. Yes, I saw a pop for a company that owned some of a solar tractor company. KXIN is up 10x in a month. It’s got Chinese and car so it’s on fire. Problem is that it’s just a Chinese used car dealer. No EV, no matter.

Damn, I wish I partook in BEEM but no chance I’m jumping in any of these stocks now. Too bad I missed out on getting shares in the XPEV IPO.

[Don Hutson 1,820]

RLFTF announced a dilution of 200 million shares is coming.  Swiss Market is trading at .335 chf.  That is .369 usd.  RLFTF closed at .4515 usd on Friday in the US Market.

https://relieftherapeutics.com/newsblog/relief-announces-notice-of-extraordinary-general-meeting-of-relief-therapeutics-holding-ag

Edited November 23, 2020 by Don Hutson

[Don Hutson 1,820]

If I owned RLFTF, I'd put in a limit sell order of .3996 before the market opens.  It likely won't trigger but it could save you some money if it does trigger.

[BassNBrew 10,571]

Seems like a great time to add some GOLD 

[stbugs 2,973]

21 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Seems like a great time to add some GOLD 

Man, I’ve got some cash to use (10-15%ish), but I’m very nervous. I’m glad I wasn’t one of those go to full cash guys because even a tech heavy guy like me is at ATHs, but that worry has grown a lot. There’s a ton of #### that isn’t a good company/future stock that are on fire. Still a gigantic disconnect between real world economy and stocks.

That said, a few things I am watching for long term. One popped 10% this morning on news so a little pissed I waited too long on that. 

[Bamboo Bill 351]

BEEEEEM

[beef 2,491]

7 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Man, I’ve got some cash to use (10-15%ish), but I’m very nervous. I’m glad I wasn’t one of those go to full cash guys because even a tech heavy guy like me is at ATHs, but that worry has grown a lot. There’s a ton of #### that isn’t a good company/future stock that are on fire. Still a gigantic disconnect between real world economy and stocks.

That said, a few things I am watching for long term. One popped 10% this morning on news so a little pissed I waited too long on that. 

I'm about 33% cash in my brokerage account now.  My recent buys were in ETFs.  Started a position in MOON.  Added to IPAY, FIVG and LRNZ.  

[beef 2,491]

For you BEEM'ers, has anyone been tracking their institutional holdings?  I see they're around 25% now.  Not sure where to go to look at this data and wondering if the rise is more institutional or retail buying.  Market cap of only $226.9M.  If they're legit, seems like a lot of potential growth yet.  

[Sideshow Bob 642]

On 11/20/2020 at 10:58 AM, General Malaise said:

Bingo.

I'd sell some here, but I can't.  Firm selling some today, so I'm restricted.  

Lucky sum#####

[Capella 29,581]

Amazon starting off every day super green and then immediately descending into red has to be frustrating for the day traders. 

[FreeBaGeL 8,826]

31 minutes ago, Capella said:

Amazon starting off every day super green and then immediately descending into red has to be frustrating for the day traders. 

Unless they're shorting it. 

[stbugs 2,973]

35 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

Lucky sum#####

No kidding. Funny that his firm was selling last week. The P/S is now around 60, which is very high especially since revenue is actually down 2018 to 2019 and 2019 to 2020. Tulips are getting pricy in EV world.

[stbugs 2,973]

33 minutes ago, Capella said:

Amazon starting off every day super green and then immediately descending into red has to be frustrating for the day traders. 

I’d think consistent daily patterns would be a day traders dream scenario.

[pmedina 83]

Anything behind the NNOX increase?

[Kao-Lin 48]

12 hours ago, KGB said:

SO, 

As of TODAY.  What's your best pick for next 12 months?

 

I like PLTR for something fairly safe

Actually, Im going in on the open.

Who mentioned PLTR last week?  I was looking for something to replace CSCO and flipped the two out.  Bought a good chunk of PLTR.. Wake up this morning and I think I owe someone a beer.  A nice one. 

[BassNBrew 10,571]

57 minutes ago, Capella said:

Amazon starting off every day super green and then immediately descending into red has to be frustrating for the day traders. 

Amazon bleeding red has been frustrating for longs. Bezos needs to get divorced again so he’s motivated get something done

[pmedina 83]

24 minutes ago, pmedina said:

Anything behind the NNOX increase?

Well, sold at 42.43; was down over 30% at one point. Ended up making 7% and didn’t want to get greedy after that turn around. 

[Capella 29,581]

43 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Unless they're shorting it. 

Gotta have some balls to short that one. 

[stbugs 2,973]

47 minutes ago, pmedina said:

Well, sold at 42.43; was down over 30% at one point. Ended up making 7% and didn’t want to get greedy after that turn around. 

I don’t blame you. There’s a ton of pops on all kinds of what I’d consider riskier stocks lately. NNOX has no new news and likely won’t for a while. There’s a demo at a conference coming up and then FDA approval. I got out at $38.60ish which was a nice 25-30% gain.

It really is interesting to understand what is driving these stocks. The number of parabolic 1 month charts is staggering. I’d bet that EV stocks are now easily worth more than all the existing car companies combined. There’s kind of a thinking that EVs are this special thing and I’m not quite getting that. If every car made by GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, etc. made becomes an EV in 2030, how is the car market different? I can see how the energy companies are going to be vastly altered but are people going to buy twice as many cars? Seems like it might not be the best thing for car companies as I’d suspect cars would last a good deal longer and battery prices would come down and make it easy to make your car new again.

Heck Hydrogen stocks are through the roof as well on nothing really changing there. Which is it, EV or hydrogen?

I don’t know the future but I’m not quite understanding the parabolic nature of stocks now. Is it retail/RH investors just trading the crap out of stuff? It’s pretty remarkable and some days I wish I was a day trader but the frothiness is getting very worrisome to me again.

[ConstruxBoy 1,138]

1 hour ago, Kao-Lin said:

Who mentioned PLTR last week?  I was looking for something to replace CSCO and flipped the two out.  Bought a good chunk of PLTR.. Wake up this morning and I think I owe someone a beer.  A nice one. 

[Kao-Lin 48]

3 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said: