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On 11/25/2020 at 9:15 AM, TripItUp said:

Bought a fair amount of LGVW premarket at 17.10.   

The first SPAC in a while that I've had interest in.

I also doubled down on bitcoin on Monday...playing with a fair amount of house money so risk is hedged...don't want any regrets if it goes to 100k.

 

More on LGVW

This thing has been a dog. Are you holding?  Buying more?

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First reference.  Brings a tear to my eye. $CYDY #notselling

I cashed out an underperforming account at ETrade about a year ago and the cash (about $950) just sat there as I had dulled on trading.  My cousin's wife Laura, who I was really close to, then di

"I know, dear, but I'm trusting Chet on this one. Yes, Chet. From the internet. "

8 minutes ago, eaganwildcats said:

Alright, responded to this already, but wanted to do so again after giving it a bit more research and thought. Current market cap for $OCO is about $205 million USD. Note there is some exposure to USD CAD exchange rate on this thing, but I'm going to ignore that. Because I have $25K invested (largest position in my "active" account) I figured I could be troubled to watch the most recent presentation. They will likely need to raise about 20 million dollars or so USD to finish out drilling over the next year or so. Not a material dilution given the current share price, but is worth noting. 

Right now, they are in the process of figuring out "how big is the copper deposit" and "what is the quality of said copper". The first phase is the 3D IP survey which intends to figure out the "size". 3D IP can't tell you if the anomalies found "are" copper - but it can inform where to drill. Based on the last time Santa Tomas was surveyed the going theory is there is somewhere around 7.5 billion pounds of copper (note that it can be confusing when they switch between pounds & tons so one must listen relatively carefully). The hope with the current project is to take that 7.5 billion and expand it based on new drilling & surveying. It seems plausible this number could be anywhere from 10-20 given the data so far. In the video they note a few "rules of thumb" for acquisitions of this type. The most straight forward one being somewhere between 7&9 cents per pound as an acquisition price. I'd wager if copper prices continue to trend the way they are going (currently at like 3.40 with some bullish estimates up to 9+) the 7&9 cent estimate is on the low-end. For my back of the envelope I'll use 8 cents. 

So a likely conservative case here is we have 7.5 billion pounds of copper at an acquisition price of 8 cents per pound. Doing the math there that gets us to a target acquisition price of 600 million. Divided by the (now dilluted) share count of 192 million puts target price at $3.12. 

Target for said acquisition is ~24 months. So wait a couple years for a potential ~3x with seemingly limited downside. I will continue to hold and may add if I free up some $ and/or we see a dip on no news.

 

Thank you.

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18 minutes ago, Capella said:

I’ve seen a few people on here saying this? I get the market is a little hot right now, but what’s the fear about? When the vax gets fully distributed and we return to whatever normal is, I expect things to rip. 

Because things have already ripped outside of oil, travel and maybe others. Even “old school” stocks like JPM and DFS are less than 10% from ATHs even with huge revenue drops. DIS is at an all time high even with yearly revenue about 2018 level. Not saying they will drop but more that we are already way closer to all time highs than the bottom unless you are in a true affected industry that may not ever recover to ATHs.

I’ll put it this way, I’ve made some good stock picks this year but I’m up 177% from the bottom in March in my IRA and 231% in my taxable account. I’ll take it but that’s crazy. I’ve bumped up my cash with some recent sells to secure some of the big pops like ZM and FSLY, but it just feels like we are over excited.

Also, call it a gut feeling. Seems like other earlier dips since March except that we bounced back way higher.

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13 minutes ago, Nick Vermeil said:

This thing has been a dog. Are you holding?  Buying more?

This is the one that seems like a competitor to NNOX. I was about to say that I’m surprised one is going down while the other is going up, but NNOX hit a high of $68 yesterday and then ended up down at $59 and opened at $54 today. 20% down from the peak yesterday.

Everything speculative (SPACs included) has gotten hammered this week and LGVW is no different. I think there’s more room to drop as some of these went up multiples in the past few weeks.

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First, wow, CRM was a bad buy pre-earnings and AHs. May dip a little more in and then turn it off and wait a few years.

Second, looking at CRSR. It was an IPO I wanted in on but didn’t get anything. Should have bought when it IPO’d around 14-15. It hit 51 and is now down to 35. Just looking at their 50% growth this year and decent growth the past 4 years, they seem cheap with a slightly over 2 P/S at that growth rate and what should be a PE ratio of 18 after they report their last quarter of 2000 in January. Seems to still be on a downtrend as it was a hot stock but long term seems like a bargain even if growth slows to 20%. Their growth rate in the past 4 years is 40%, 10% and 20% before this year’s 50%. Seems cheap to me. It’s a hardware company so margins aren’t quite software margins but PLTR for example has a larger growth rate (in 2020) but a P/S of 50.

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4 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Kept adding to CRM down to $216.  Huge over reaction.

Pot committed. Have 55 shares now. Cost me about $800 more than it should so I expect an apology to Jeff.

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14 hours ago, Wingnut said:

Total noob here looking to dabble small time. Yall sure do use a lot of jargon, acronyms, and abbreviations. 

So far I signed up on Robinhood and read the past few pages here. 

This should be fun.

I'm another small time noob trying to learn all this stuff. 

I think I read this thread for 6 months before I actually started buying stuff. I had an old, very small 401k from a previous job just sitting there for 4 years doing nothing. So that's my learning money. 

One thing I've learned since I started this in June is patience. 

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NKLA is up 8% today bucking the trend. Dead cat bounce. I posted in here how much I didn’t like their CEO, seemed like a con man. No idea why they’d be up after disastrous news from GM who’s just willing to be their supplier. Their truck product is basically gone now.

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By the way, just a reminder that if you want to buy AMD for the long term, buy XLNX. It’s trading at about a 10% discount to the final AMD shares you’ll get. I think that’s because it’s a big merger and it’s not supposed to be complete until the end of 2021. I’m holding that until it happens and will likely just keep the AMD shares.

IPHI has an even bigger discount. Share price at $152 and final merger price is $174. 

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12 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

See my post above.  Do you have plans for the proceeds?

Was just thinking of getting the cash out now vs waiting for later, but probably going to hold after doing more analysis last night into the details of the deal.

I've never really gotten what CRM does as a business. They bought Tableau which I am a huge fan of as a long term user/near IPO investor. I like Slack a lot too from a user perspective, so I can see the acquisition as bringing that tool to users of their overall platform. I just don't get what Salesforce's core business is supposed to do :bag:

 

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5 minutes ago, stbugs said:

By the way, just a reminder that if you want to buy AMD for the long term, buy XLNX. It’s trading at about a 10% discount to the final AMD shares you’ll get. I think that’s because it’s a big merger and it’s not supposed to be complete until the end of 2021. I’m holding that until it happens and will likely just keep the AMD shares.

IPHI has an even bigger discount. Share price at $152 and final merger price is $174. 

WORK a little over a 10% discount to merger, too. No idea the timing on that one. 

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39 minutes ago, stbugs said:

First, wow, CRM was a bad buy pre-earnings and AHs. May dip a little more in and then turn it off and wait a few years.

Second, looking at CRSR. It was an IPO I wanted in on but didn’t get anything. Should have bought when it IPO’d around 14-15. It hit 51 and is now down to 35. Just looking at their 50% growth this year and decent growth the past 4 years, they seem cheap with a slightly over 2 P/S at that growth rate and what should be a PE ratio of 18 after they report their last quarter of 2000 in January. Seems to still be on a downtrend as it was a hot stock but long term seems like a bargain even if growth slows to 20%. Their growth rate in the past 4 years is 40%, 10% and 20% before this year’s 50%. Seems cheap to me. It’s a hardware company so margins aren’t quite software margins but PLTR for example has a larger growth rate (in 2020) but a P/S of 50.

Great call here.  already up 3%.  Keep them coming.

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57 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Because things have already ripped outside of oil, travel and maybe others. Even “old school” stocks like JPM and DFS are less than 10% from ATHs even with huge revenue drops. DIS is at an all time high even with yearly revenue about 2018 level. Not saying they will drop but more that we are already way closer to all time highs than the bottom unless you are in a true affected industry that may not ever recover to ATHs.

I’ll put it this way, I’ve made some good stock picks this year but I’m up 177% from the bottom in March in my IRA and 231% in my taxable account. I’ll take it but that’s crazy. I’ve bumped up my cash with some recent sells to secure some of the big pops like ZM and FSLY, but it just feels like we are over excited.

Also, call it a gut feeling. Seems like other earlier dips since March except that we bounced back way higher.

Just because things are going well now doesn’t necessarily indicate they will be going poorly later. 

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5 minutes ago, Capella said:

Just because things are going well now doesn’t necessarily indicate they will be going poorly later. 

True, really just a gut feel. Maybe more based on all the really risky stuff popping. Just seems like we are at a top and we are still months and months away from normal. I know forward looking and all, just think we’ve been up a lot so not seeing a rip up.

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20 minutes ago, Lomez said:

WORK a little over a 10% discount to merger, too. No idea the timing on that one. 

I put 6% of my account into WORK this morning.  So far, so good.  That 10% must have been a blipped because I've never seen more than $1.10 discount.

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14 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I put 6% of my account into WORK this morning.  So far, so good.  That 10% must have been a blipped because I've never seen more than $1.10 discount.

Nope. I had a spreadsheet set up to look at the MRVL/IPHI deal, and I missed updating a cell when I copied it over to look at WORK/CRM. Thanks for the heads up.

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5 minutes ago, Lomez said:

Nope. I had a spreadsheet set up to look at the MRVL/IPHI deal, and I missed updating a cell when I copied it over to look at WORK/CRM. Thanks for the heads up.

I wonder why the discounts are so much higher on IPHI and XLNX. Maybe they are longer and thus riskier? WORK has a 2%+ discount versus 10%+.

CRM’s deal is mainly cash, 60%, so maybe that removes a lot of the risk. XLNX is all stock and IPHI is about 30-40% cash.

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7 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I wonder why the discounts are so much higher on IPHI and XLNX. Maybe they are longer and thus riskier? WORK has a 2%+ discount versus 10%+.

CRM’s deal is mainly cash, 60%, so maybe that removes a lot of the risk. XLNX is all stock and IPHI is about 30-40% cash.

Just a thought, I think the merger price can be changed if the market tanks, right? So I don't think it's guaranteed that WRK and XLNK stay at the announced value if the market tanks before they merge. Maybe I'm wrong though. 

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6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Only bought 50, but will watch if it dips more.

 

5 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I wonder why the discounts are so much higher on IPHI and XLNX. Maybe they are longer and thus riskier? WORK has a 2%+ discount versus 10%+.

WORK is 90%+ cash. I think that limits the arbitrage. I haven't looked at the conversion rates on the other two.  WORK should also happen in 3 months.  Parking your cash there is an 8%-10% annualized return.  With the frothy market it seems like a great place to park your cash.

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19 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Just a thought, I think the merger price can be changed if the market tanks, right? So I don't think it's guaranteed that WRK and XLNK stay at the announced value if the market tanks before they merge. Maybe I'm wrong though. 

Possibly, but I think that would be more the acquiree asking for more shares if the acquirer tanks. I’m not thinking about that actual price, just the discount. The XLNX one is easier, you get 1.7234 shares of AMD for every XLNX share. They move in lock step but XLNX still has about a 10% discount. I assume it’s just the risk that the merger falls through. I was just surprised at the difference in the WORK discount and was assuming it was the cash difference, which means WORK moves less than CRM on a dip and timing, less risk on merger falling through. I was just surprised to see a 4-5x difference in the discount.

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24 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

 

WORK is 90%+ cash. I think that limits the arbitrage. I haven't looked at the conversion rates on the other two.  WORK should also happen in 3 months.  Parking your cash there is an 8%-10% annualized return.  With the frothy market it seems like a great place to park your cash.

Only about 60% cash ($26 out of about $45), but agree on cash/timing.

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1 minute ago, stbugs said:

Only about 60% cash ($26 out of about $45), but agree on cash/timing.

Crap, you are right about that.  3 months compare to the extended timeframe you mentioned is probably the biggest reason.

So did we learn anything from the TDOC/Livongo merger?  TDOC tanked the day after.

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7 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

 

2 hours ago, Nick Vermeil said:

This thing has been a dog. Are you holding?  Buying more?

Yeah, total dog still holding and looking for an exit.

 

Why did your opinion change?

I added more this morning.  You were pretty bullish a few days ago.

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31 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Crap, you are right about that.  3 months compare to the extended timeframe you mentioned is probably the biggest reason.

So did we learn anything from the TDOC/Livongo merger?  TDOC tanked the day after.

Since we bought In yesterday, no.

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28 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Why did your opinion change?

I added more this morning.  You were pretty bullish a few days ago.

I have a few friends that are MDs that I ran it by.  When they're not interested, I'm not interested.   Basically a crowded space and they don't see any differentiators.  That's not to say it wont come out the winner in the space, but they weren't overly impressed.

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Possibly, but I think that would be more the acquiree asking for more shares if the acquirer tanks. I’m not thinking about that actual price, just the discount. The XLNX one is easier, you get 1.7234 shares of AMD for every XLNX share. They move in lock step but XLNX still has about a 10% discount. I assume it’s just the risk that the merger falls through. I was just surprised at the difference in the WORK discount and was assuming it was the cash difference, which means WORK moves less than CRM on a dip and timing, less risk on merger falling through. I was just surprised to see a 4-5x difference in the discount.

See the SPG deal with Taubman. When the market tanked, SPG basically said, "You're not worth what you were worth before. Why should we pay what we were going to pay before?" They dropped the acquisition price from $53 to $43, I think.

Now, that was a mostly/all cash deal iirc, so the acquiring company's stock price also being variable mutes that a little bit. But you'd also generally expect the acquiring/stronger company stock to be more resilient.

Lots of potential risks, though. Due diligence could identify something that puts the deal at risk between now and closing. The feds could step in and put a stop to it. Locusts.

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28 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I have a few friends that are MDs that I ran it by.  When they're not interested, I'm not interested.   Basically a crowded space and they don't see any differentiators.  That's not to say it wont come out the winner in the space, but they weren't overly impressed.

It's not really for them though, right?  Not that I'm defending the stock, but seems like a device for use in places they don't have the means for a big ultrasound.  

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On June 2nd, Humanigen announced that they were selling $78 million in shares in the Venrock offering.  I believe the shares were locked for 6 months.  Does anyone know exactly when these buyers will be able to sell?  Does anyone know if it is possible to look up this information with SEC filings or is this information essentially private?

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39 minutes ago, Lomez said:

See the SPG deal with Taubman. When the market tanked, SPG basically said, "You're not worth what you were worth before. Why should we pay what we were going to pay before?" They dropped the acquisition price from $53 to $43, I think.

Now, that was a mostly/all cash deal iirc, so the acquiring company's stock price also being variable mutes that a little bit. But you'd also generally expect the acquiring/stronger company stock to be more resilient.

Lots of potential risks, though. Due diligence could identify something that puts the deal at risk between now and closing. The feds could step in and put a stop to it. Locusts.

Yeah, I don’t think any of the four chip companies are in any danger of dropping like a rock and since it is an all stock/mostly stock set of deals if the market drops all 4 companies will drop. Locusts would suck. Famine’s never fun.

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

@KGB Finally dipped a toe in PLTR at $21.80. Just 100 shares, but felt like a good start. If it dips more keep DCAing into a half to a full share.

Give me the rundown on this company. I literally know nothing about them. I keep seeing you guys reference them, and watching the '21 puts up to $2.60 is certainly interesting from a return perspective, aside from potentially buying shares.

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12 minutes ago, Lomez said:

Give me the rundown on this company. I literally know nothing about them. I keep seeing you guys reference them, and watching the '21 puts up to $2.60 is certainly interesting from a return perspective, aside from potentially buying shares.

They are a big data or data intelligence or AI type company. Growing very well and seems like a good long term company. There’s lots of short term money/shorting hence the pop over $30 the other day. 

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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Crap, you are right about that.  3 months compare to the extended timeframe you mentioned is probably the biggest reason.

So did we learn anything from the TDOC/Livongo merger?  TDOC tanked the day after.

The entire healthcare sector is chasing that valuation.  It's gone crazy.  Call yourself virtual care or AI and they are throwing tens and hundreds of millions at you.  Then the M&A starts behind it.  Then the blank check SPAC's. It's fund now, ask questions later.  I know it's more than that.  Maybe these guys are that smart.  I dunno

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5 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

The entire healthcare sector is chasing that valuation.  It's gone crazy.  Call yourself virtual care or AI and they are throwing tens and hundreds of millions at you.  Then the M&A starts behind it.  Then the blank check SPAC's. It's fund now, ask questions later.  I know it's more than that.  Maybe these guys are that smart.  I dunno

So...my takeaway: stay away from healthcare tech.  Stick to the big insurers who are going to make money regardless unless a Bernie type is elected.  My $ANTM and $UNH are at their all time highs.

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1 hour ago, Lomez said:

Give me the rundown on this company. I literally know nothing about them. I keep seeing you guys reference them, and watching the '21 puts up to $2.60 is certainly interesting from a return perspective, aside from potentially buying shares.

Peter Theil has his hands in it, if that changes your mind at all one way or the other.

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