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12 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

See my post above.  Do you have plans for the proceeds?

Was just thinking of getting the cash out now vs waiting for later, but probably going to hold after doing more analysis last night into the details of the deal.

I've never really gotten what CRM does as a business. They bought Tableau which I am a huge fan of as a long term user/near IPO investor. I like Slack a lot too from a user perspective, so I can see the acquisition as bringing that tool to users of their overall platform. I just don't get what Salesforce's core business is supposed to do :bag:

 

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First reference.  Brings a tear to my eye. $CYDY #notselling

I cashed out an underperforming account at ETrade about a year ago and the cash (about $950) just sat there as I had dulled on trading.  My cousin's wife Laura, who I was really close to, then di

"I know, dear, but I'm trusting Chet on this one. Yes, Chet. From the internet. "

5 minutes ago, stbugs said:

By the way, just a reminder that if you want to buy AMD for the long term, buy XLNX. It’s trading at about a 10% discount to the final AMD shares you’ll get. I think that’s because it’s a big merger and it’s not supposed to be complete until the end of 2021. I’m holding that until it happens and will likely just keep the AMD shares.

IPHI has an even bigger discount. Share price at $152 and final merger price is $174. 

WORK a little over a 10% discount to merger, too. No idea the timing on that one. 

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39 minutes ago, stbugs said:

First, wow, CRM was a bad buy pre-earnings and AHs. May dip a little more in and then turn it off and wait a few years.

Second, looking at CRSR. It was an IPO I wanted in on but didn’t get anything. Should have bought when it IPO’d around 14-15. It hit 51 and is now down to 35. Just looking at their 50% growth this year and decent growth the past 4 years, they seem cheap with a slightly over 2 P/S at that growth rate and what should be a PE ratio of 18 after they report their last quarter of 2000 in January. Seems to still be on a downtrend as it was a hot stock but long term seems like a bargain even if growth slows to 20%. Their growth rate in the past 4 years is 40%, 10% and 20% before this year’s 50%. Seems cheap to me. It’s a hardware company so margins aren’t quite software margins but PLTR for example has a larger growth rate (in 2020) but a P/S of 50.

Great call here.  already up 3%.  Keep them coming.

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57 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Because things have already ripped outside of oil, travel and maybe others. Even “old school” stocks like JPM and DFS are less than 10% from ATHs even with huge revenue drops. DIS is at an all time high even with yearly revenue about 2018 level. Not saying they will drop but more that we are already way closer to all time highs than the bottom unless you are in a true affected industry that may not ever recover to ATHs.

I’ll put it this way, I’ve made some good stock picks this year but I’m up 177% from the bottom in March in my IRA and 231% in my taxable account. I’ll take it but that’s crazy. I’ve bumped up my cash with some recent sells to secure some of the big pops like ZM and FSLY, but it just feels like we are over excited.

Also, call it a gut feeling. Seems like other earlier dips since March except that we bounced back way higher.

Just because things are going well now doesn’t necessarily indicate they will be going poorly later. 

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5 minutes ago, Capella said:

Just because things are going well now doesn’t necessarily indicate they will be going poorly later. 

True, really just a gut feel. Maybe more based on all the really risky stuff popping. Just seems like we are at a top and we are still months and months away from normal. I know forward looking and all, just think we’ve been up a lot so not seeing a rip up.

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20 minutes ago, Lomez said:

WORK a little over a 10% discount to merger, too. No idea the timing on that one. 

I put 6% of my account into WORK this morning.  So far, so good.  That 10% must have been a blipped because I've never seen more than $1.10 discount.

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14 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I put 6% of my account into WORK this morning.  So far, so good.  That 10% must have been a blipped because I've never seen more than $1.10 discount.

Nope. I had a spreadsheet set up to look at the MRVL/IPHI deal, and I missed updating a cell when I copied it over to look at WORK/CRM. Thanks for the heads up.

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5 minutes ago, Lomez said:

Nope. I had a spreadsheet set up to look at the MRVL/IPHI deal, and I missed updating a cell when I copied it over to look at WORK/CRM. Thanks for the heads up.

I wonder why the discounts are so much higher on IPHI and XLNX. Maybe they are longer and thus riskier? WORK has a 2%+ discount versus 10%+.

CRM’s deal is mainly cash, 60%, so maybe that removes a lot of the risk. XLNX is all stock and IPHI is about 30-40% cash.

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7 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I wonder why the discounts are so much higher on IPHI and XLNX. Maybe they are longer and thus riskier? WORK has a 2%+ discount versus 10%+.

CRM’s deal is mainly cash, 60%, so maybe that removes a lot of the risk. XLNX is all stock and IPHI is about 30-40% cash.

Just a thought, I think the merger price can be changed if the market tanks, right? So I don't think it's guaranteed that WRK and XLNK stay at the announced value if the market tanks before they merge. Maybe I'm wrong though. 

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6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Only bought 50, but will watch if it dips more.

 

5 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I wonder why the discounts are so much higher on IPHI and XLNX. Maybe they are longer and thus riskier? WORK has a 2%+ discount versus 10%+.

WORK is 90%+ cash. I think that limits the arbitrage. I haven't looked at the conversion rates on the other two.  WORK should also happen in 3 months.  Parking your cash there is an 8%-10% annualized return.  With the frothy market it seems like a great place to park your cash.

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19 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Just a thought, I think the merger price can be changed if the market tanks, right? So I don't think it's guaranteed that WRK and XLNK stay at the announced value if the market tanks before they merge. Maybe I'm wrong though. 

Possibly, but I think that would be more the acquiree asking for more shares if the acquirer tanks. I’m not thinking about that actual price, just the discount. The XLNX one is easier, you get 1.7234 shares of AMD for every XLNX share. They move in lock step but XLNX still has about a 10% discount. I assume it’s just the risk that the merger falls through. I was just surprised at the difference in the WORK discount and was assuming it was the cash difference, which means WORK moves less than CRM on a dip and timing, less risk on merger falling through. I was just surprised to see a 4-5x difference in the discount.

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24 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

 

WORK is 90%+ cash. I think that limits the arbitrage. I haven't looked at the conversion rates on the other two.  WORK should also happen in 3 months.  Parking your cash there is an 8%-10% annualized return.  With the frothy market it seems like a great place to park your cash.

Only about 60% cash ($26 out of about $45), but agree on cash/timing.

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1 minute ago, stbugs said:

Only about 60% cash ($26 out of about $45), but agree on cash/timing.

Crap, you are right about that.  3 months compare to the extended timeframe you mentioned is probably the biggest reason.

So did we learn anything from the TDOC/Livongo merger?  TDOC tanked the day after.

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7 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

 

2 hours ago, Nick Vermeil said:

This thing has been a dog. Are you holding?  Buying more?

Yeah, total dog still holding and looking for an exit.

 

Why did your opinion change?

I added more this morning.  You were pretty bullish a few days ago.

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31 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Crap, you are right about that.  3 months compare to the extended timeframe you mentioned is probably the biggest reason.

So did we learn anything from the TDOC/Livongo merger?  TDOC tanked the day after.

Since we bought In yesterday, no.

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28 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Why did your opinion change?

I added more this morning.  You were pretty bullish a few days ago.

I have a few friends that are MDs that I ran it by.  When they're not interested, I'm not interested.   Basically a crowded space and they don't see any differentiators.  That's not to say it wont come out the winner in the space, but they weren't overly impressed.

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Possibly, but I think that would be more the acquiree asking for more shares if the acquirer tanks. I’m not thinking about that actual price, just the discount. The XLNX one is easier, you get 1.7234 shares of AMD for every XLNX share. They move in lock step but XLNX still has about a 10% discount. I assume it’s just the risk that the merger falls through. I was just surprised at the difference in the WORK discount and was assuming it was the cash difference, which means WORK moves less than CRM on a dip and timing, less risk on merger falling through. I was just surprised to see a 4-5x difference in the discount.

See the SPG deal with Taubman. When the market tanked, SPG basically said, "You're not worth what you were worth before. Why should we pay what we were going to pay before?" They dropped the acquisition price from $53 to $43, I think.

Now, that was a mostly/all cash deal iirc, so the acquiring company's stock price also being variable mutes that a little bit. But you'd also generally expect the acquiring/stronger company stock to be more resilient.

Lots of potential risks, though. Due diligence could identify something that puts the deal at risk between now and closing. The feds could step in and put a stop to it. Locusts.

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28 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I have a few friends that are MDs that I ran it by.  When they're not interested, I'm not interested.   Basically a crowded space and they don't see any differentiators.  That's not to say it wont come out the winner in the space, but they weren't overly impressed.

It's not really for them though, right?  Not that I'm defending the stock, but seems like a device for use in places they don't have the means for a big ultrasound.  

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On June 2nd, Humanigen announced that they were selling $78 million in shares in the Venrock offering.  I believe the shares were locked for 6 months.  Does anyone know exactly when these buyers will be able to sell?  Does anyone know if it is possible to look up this information with SEC filings or is this information essentially private?

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39 minutes ago, Lomez said:

See the SPG deal with Taubman. When the market tanked, SPG basically said, "You're not worth what you were worth before. Why should we pay what we were going to pay before?" They dropped the acquisition price from $53 to $43, I think.

Now, that was a mostly/all cash deal iirc, so the acquiring company's stock price also being variable mutes that a little bit. But you'd also generally expect the acquiring/stronger company stock to be more resilient.

Lots of potential risks, though. Due diligence could identify something that puts the deal at risk between now and closing. The feds could step in and put a stop to it. Locusts.

Yeah, I don’t think any of the four chip companies are in any danger of dropping like a rock and since it is an all stock/mostly stock set of deals if the market drops all 4 companies will drop. Locusts would suck. Famine’s never fun.

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

@KGB Finally dipped a toe in PLTR at $21.80. Just 100 shares, but felt like a good start. If it dips more keep DCAing into a half to a full share.

Give me the rundown on this company. I literally know nothing about them. I keep seeing you guys reference them, and watching the '21 puts up to $2.60 is certainly interesting from a return perspective, aside from potentially buying shares.

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12 minutes ago, Lomez said:

Give me the rundown on this company. I literally know nothing about them. I keep seeing you guys reference them, and watching the '21 puts up to $2.60 is certainly interesting from a return perspective, aside from potentially buying shares.

They are a big data or data intelligence or AI type company. Growing very well and seems like a good long term company. There’s lots of short term money/shorting hence the pop over $30 the other day. 

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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Crap, you are right about that.  3 months compare to the extended timeframe you mentioned is probably the biggest reason.

So did we learn anything from the TDOC/Livongo merger?  TDOC tanked the day after.

The entire healthcare sector is chasing that valuation.  It's gone crazy.  Call yourself virtual care or AI and they are throwing tens and hundreds of millions at you.  Then the M&A starts behind it.  Then the blank check SPAC's. It's fund now, ask questions later.  I know it's more than that.  Maybe these guys are that smart.  I dunno

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5 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

The entire healthcare sector is chasing that valuation.  It's gone crazy.  Call yourself virtual care or AI and they are throwing tens and hundreds of millions at you.  Then the M&A starts behind it.  Then the blank check SPAC's. It's fund now, ask questions later.  I know it's more than that.  Maybe these guys are that smart.  I dunno

So...my takeaway: stay away from healthcare tech.  Stick to the big insurers who are going to make money regardless unless a Bernie type is elected.  My $ANTM and $UNH are at their all time highs.

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1 hour ago, Lomez said:

Give me the rundown on this company. I literally know nothing about them. I keep seeing you guys reference them, and watching the '21 puts up to $2.60 is certainly interesting from a return perspective, aside from potentially buying shares.

Peter Theil has his hands in it, if that changes your mind at all one way or the other.

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4 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

wild ride for GMHI/LAZR today. Was down 20% now up 8%. 

Been holding that for a while. Only have 200 shares but it was one of the bunch I bought a few months ago. If it switches over tomorrow I’ll see what it does. It’s in my IRA so no worry about taxes when selling but seems like it’s got potential long term.

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36 minutes ago, Capella said:

 

45 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Is this the first time an NFL game has been played during market hours?

LOL literally just thought that. Has to be right?

 

Maybe Bezos should have been doing some work rather than sitting on the couch eating chips and letting his company go down the toilet.

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3 hours ago, SouthJersey said:

So...my takeaway: stay away from healthcare tech.  Stick to the big insurers who are going to make money regardless unless a Bernie type is elected.  My $ANTM and $UNH are at their all time highs.

What do you think happens to health insurance companies when the US joins the rest of the world with socialized healthcare?

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2 hours ago, stbugs said:

Been holding that for a while. Only have 200 shares but it was one of the bunch I bought a few months ago. If it switches over tomorrow I’ll see what it does. It’s in my IRA so no worry about taxes when selling but seems like it’s got potential long term.

up HUGE after hours

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20 minutes ago, CR69 said:

What do you think happens to health insurance companies when the US joins the rest of the world with socialized healthcare?

I work in healthcare, but I"m no expert.  I don't know when (if) the US will move to socialized medicine.  Obamacare was a minor step and hardly in that direction, but major carriers were key in the state marketplaces.  The government was not insuring folks, they had to buy insurance on the marketplace from private carriers.  If Biden does the same and this becomes the compromised norm (doubtful, but maybe Republicans concede to this rather than Medicare for All), then insurance carriers make out well.

Plus many of the big payers also have lucrative side-businesses that make good $$$.  UNH owns Optum which has a huge pharmacy business as well has hospital consulting/management businesses.  Aetna is now a part of CVS which is also insurance/pharmacy.  Anthem and Cigna tried to merge but I think that fell through for one reason or another.

Long story short I think the private payers are in a good spot right now.  Plus while they might be paying more for COVID admissions, in the short/intermediate term they're saving quite a bit of money with so many hospitals decreasing or completely putting a pause on all of their elective surgeries which are the high dollar payouts for insurance carriers.

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25 minutes ago, CR69 said:

What do you think happens to health insurance companies when the US joins the rest of the world with socialized healthcare?

Why does it matter, we won't be around to see what happens.

You have a coalition of 90% of the country that has no vested interest in helping out the 10% getting buried.

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6 hours ago, stbugs said:

@KGB Finally dipped a toe in PLTR at $21.80. Just 100 shares, but felt like a good start. If it dips more keep DCAing into a half to a full share.

Glad you waited.  I originally got in about $18 and even though I bought more yesterday, still in the green 8%.

I just think this is a cpmpany that in 10 years, you say, duh. The biggest name data company with all the GOVT contracts.  So, I'm very long term on this buy.

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Have been following along for a little while now.  I’ve pretty much only invested in vanguard ETF’s (VTI, VWO, etc.), amazon, and Bitcoin.  I’ve been very pro crypto for a few years now but never had the money to invest like I’d like until recent.

I’m 34, fairly risk adverse and while small in these groups have just gotten on my feet after years of mess ups and probably have around 5k to start with and around 500 going in every week.  Any words of advice where to look at or stick with the etf’s so I’m pretty well diverse.  Am still leaning towards keeping a minimum of 25% in crypto if not more.

Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, CowboyFan4822 said:

Have been following along for a little while now.  I’ve pretty much only invested in vanguard ETF’s (VTI, VWO, etc.), amazon, and Bitcoin.  I’ve been very pro crypto for a few years now but never had the money to invest like I’d like until recent.

I’m 34, fairly risk adverse and while small in these groups have just gotten on my feet after years of mess ups and probably have around 5k to start with and around 500 going in every week.  Any words of advice where to look at or stick with the etf’s so I’m pretty well diverse.  Am still leaning towards keeping a minimum of 25% in crypto if not more.

Thanks.

I would only invest a small $$$ amount.  like 5% as a learning/play money for most of the stuff in this thread until you feel comfortable.  It's been a great market for a long time which makes everything look gravy.  

2. be more patient than me 

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1 minute ago, KGB said:

I would only invest a small $$$ amount.  like 5% as a learning/play money for most of the stuff in this thread until you feel comfortable.  It's been a great market for a long time which makes everything look gravy.  

2. be more patient than me 

That’s probably a good idea.  90% to bit/Amazon/etfs and tag along some with the remaining 10% 🙂🏻

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