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Just now, cosjobs said:

For decisions like this, I recommend getting a magic eight ball.

Not really.  I'm not asking what the stock is going to do.  I am asking what your strategy usually is in this situation. 

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1 hour ago, stbugs said:

Yep, I’m up almost 30% with no merger. The one thing to remember on PSTH is that it started at $20, not $10. They raised a lot more money than most SPACs. It would be nice to get a merger and see if this is a long term hold or not. Most SPACs that have merged that I bought have actually been things I’m happy to hold. OPEN, CLOV (not exciting, but should be good), RIDE (sold at $28.5), LAZR (sold at $29.5), TTCF and GHIV (might sell after switchover). I think when they get over $25 to $30, definitely good time to think about unloading although some have flown much further. Still have a bunch that haven’t merged but IPOD and PSTH are the only ones at a large premium, others are 10-20% up. I definitely wasn’t wrong when I said SPACs might be a great place to park cash. Probably should have parked all of my cash there as that was before the big EV popping. Definitely missed out on some doozies.

We've all missed out on something, many things. 

Any other tips for other SPACs? (I put $5k in this thing already)

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Just now, ChiefD said:

I will also add - I am a small bit player in here. 

I only bought 10000 shares at the start and have 8000 left. Trying to learn and build this account slowly. 

I am in a somewhat similar boat.  Bought $500, 28000 shares. 

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12 minutes ago, bshell27 said:

I am in a somewhat similar boat.  Bought $500, 28000 shares. 

Maybe sell enough to cover your $500 and maybe some profit and then free roll the rest. Then leave the dough in cash for the next opportunity or put it into something more stable.

 

Edited by ChiefD
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54 minutes ago, SouthJersey said:

Does any one have strategies on selling/trimming?  I see stuff like this from the pros like Todem.  It makes sense.  Every f'in stock I pick right now is a winner and I don't know anything.  My mom is texting me $BTC prices. Etc etc.

But I also see dudes posting charts of twitter showing "my biggest losses were the stocks i sold too early" which also makes sense and has been true for me.

If you guys are selling off a little, what % and how are you approaching it?

I see statements like the bolded and it confirms what I quoted a few days ago from Jeremy Grantham. The individual investor needs to be very careful in this market. For me, it means rotating out of growth and into value. I'm also buying into GLD since I'm worried about inflation. And I want to have a decent amount of cash available as well. On the margins, I am buying puts here and there to actually profit if a drop happens but that's pretty aggressive and I would not recommend it to others. I'm doing some day trading, trying to stay nimble and keeping a close eye on what's happening. I'd prefer set-it-and-forget-it but not in this environment.

By the way, if you sell too early but book a profit, those are not losses. Just sayin'.

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Obviously lots of dotcom-esque similarities here, especially with EV/solar.

One big difference though is interest rates.  In 2000 everyone could just move their money to a CD and still make 5% on it.  Where are people going to move their money to now?  Sitting on cash basically means literally that, just sitting on cash that is losing value against inflation.

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1 hour ago, SouthJersey said:

Does any one have strategies on selling/trimming?  I see stuff like this from the pros like Todem.  It makes sense.  Every f'in stock I pick right now is a winner and I don't know anything.  My mom is texting me $BTC prices. Etc etc.

But I also see dudes posting charts of twitter showing "my biggest losses were the stocks i sold too early" which also makes sense and has been true for me.

If you guys are selling off a little, what % and how are you approaching it?

I have had a tried and true strategy my entire life. If you have good companies and have made 100% plus in them. Sell your original investment. Get your risk premium back. Look for another stock. You're on house money the rest of that stocks existence in your portfolio. 

So if it keeps going up.....you reap. If it collapses.....well you got your original investment out.

I have done that with dozens and dozens of stocks over the course of my life. Including Apple and Amazon etc etc. And of course they kept running up and running and running. All on house money.

But every stock is different. So you gotta know what you own. It is a slippery slope. And not one I give broad based advice on.

But the rule I gave above is basic money management and gambling 101. 

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8 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Obviously lots of dotcom-esque similarities here, especially with EV/solar.

One big difference though is interest rates.  In 2000 everyone could just move their money to a CD and still make 5% on it.  Where are people going to move their money to now?  Sitting on cash basically means literally that, just sitting on cash that is losing value against inflation.

This is when large cap value stocks become very attractive. But there is nothing wrong with sitting on cash while you wait for a correction. Then you can go to town on great stocks on sale. 

You don't want to fall into the trap of selling everything if you have long term goals. I can’t stress that enough. I would not be more than 30% cash ever in a long term goal account and sit on that for extended amounts of time. 

Yeah tactical management is part of what I do. But I don’t sit in 30% cash that often. Most of the time we are fully invested. 

This market today is really showing the tell tale signs of irrational exuberance. It is hard to ignore for myself personally.

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9 minutes ago, ericttspikes said:

Damn, that AFRM ipo is nuts. Thinking hard about adding a lot to my IPOE (SOFI) position based on that AFRM valuation.

Ugh, that was priced late so Fidelity didn’t even let us try to get in. Tried to get in on MSGM as well. No luck.

IPOs are too hot so no chance anymore for us little guys.

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49 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Getting to a larger cash/bitcoin position soon...correction coming per Goldman Sachs and others.

I assume you mean a market correction and not a btc correction.

Also, are you confident that it will increase in value through a correction? IIRRC Gold went down with the market last time.

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2 hours ago, stbugs said:

Yep, I’m up almost 30% with no merger. The one thing to remember on PSTH is that it started at $20, not $10. They raised a lot more money than most SPACs. It would be nice to get a merger and see if this is a long term hold or not. Most SPACs that have merged that I bought have actually been things I’m happy to hold. OPEN, CLOV (not exciting, but should be good), RIDE (sold at $28.5), LAZR (sold at $29.5), TTCF and GHIV (might sell after switchover). I think when they get over $25 to $30, definitely good time to think about unloading although some have flown much further. Still have a bunch that haven’t merged but IPOD and PSTH are the only ones at a large premium, others are 10-20% up. I definitely wasn’t wrong when I said SPACs might be a great place to park cash. Probably should have parked all of my cash there as that was before the big EV popping. Definitely missed out on some doozies.

I just took a position in NGABU, a Spac that started trading today and is already up to $11.60.  I typically don't like to buy these once they cross $11 to minimize that downside risk.  But this is likely an EV play as their first SPAC was NGA which has announced a merger with Lion Electric, and has run up to around $30 here pre-merger.

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2 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

Great points here as always. Disagree on BTC, but certainly understand your POV. Went ahead and got out of some things that had run up that I didn't truly believe in, other than 3 SPACs: PSTH, IPOD and FUSE. 

 

What is it you like about FUSE?  Mainly because of Ross?

Looks like rumors are BlockFi may be their target.  Crypto so I guess that could catch some momentum if true, but not sure about the actual company itself from a fundamentals standpoint.

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On 1/7/2021 at 10:45 AM, SFBayDuck said:

Added to my SPAC holdings today.  SBVCF, a cannabis company that announced a partnership with Jay-Z, and VTIQU, which has indicated a focus on autonomous vehicles, electrification, smart mobility, etc.  

Nice bump on SBVCF today, up 23% so far.  "Only" up 5% on VTIQU in less than a week.

Yes, all of this stuff is just starting to feel way too frothy.

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53 minutes ago, pecorino said:

I see statements like the bolded and it confirms what I quoted a few days ago from Jeremy Grantham. The individual investor needs to be very careful in this market. For me, it means rotating out of growth and into value. I'm also buying into GLD since I'm worried about inflation. And I want to have a decent amount of cash available as well. On the margins, I am buying puts here and there to actually profit if a drop happens but that's pretty aggressive and I would not recommend it to others. I'm doing some day trading, trying to stay nimble and keeping a close eye on what's happening. I'd prefer set-it-and-forget-it but not in this environment.

By the way, if you sell too early but book a profit, those are not losses. Just sayin'.

So are you talking about a long term investment account here? Taxable or Tax Advantaged? Are you taking about funds or stocks?

 

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11 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

What is it you like about FUSE?  Mainly because of Ross?

Looks like rumors are BlockFi may be their target.  Crypto so I guess that could catch some momentum if true, but not sure about the actual company itself from a fundamentals standpoint.

Yeah, mostly Ross and a crypto target, particularly BlockFi. I think it may end up surpassing Coinbase as a primary trade/short term hold site. 

And to clarify, I'm talking little positions in my SPACs.  More like the play money of the account. So the portfolio risk is lowered for me. 

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23 minutes ago, SFBayDuck said:

I just took a position in NGABU, a Spac that started trading today and is already up to $11.60.  I typically don't like to buy these once they cross $11 to minimize that downside risk.  But this is likely an EV play as their first SPAC was NGA which has announced a merger with Lion Electric, and has run up to around $30 here pre-merger.

I've seen several of these run to the mid $11s and then pull back.  I've got to imagine their are people taking their 5%-10% and moving to the next SPAC that opens tomorrow with zero risk.  I bought one share to track it and hope to buy closer to $11.

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1 minute ago, BassNBrew said:
26 minutes ago, SFBayDuck said:

I just took a position in NGABU, a Spac that started trading today and is already up to $11.60.  I typically don't like to buy these once they cross $11 to minimize that downside risk.  But this is likely an EV play as their first SPAC was NGA which has announced a merger with Lion Electric, and has run up to around $30 here pre-merger.

I've seen several of these run to the mid $11s and then pull back.  I've got to imagine their are people taking their 5%-10% and moving to the next SPAC that opens tomorrow with zero risk.  I bought one share to track it and hope to buy closer to $11.

I tend to agree, and have more often been left behind on these SPACs that pop right out of the gate rather than chasing them.  If I look at the SPACs I own and my cost basis this is the highest premium over the $10 price I've paid, with a two others right around $11.  But most I've picked up <$10.50.

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2 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

FWIW, if you're on SA, this is a good article on SPACs: Link

Pretty much sums it up. They were great values not that long ago but now huge premiums before you even know the merger. Seems to be a ride it while it’s hot but could be a lot of longer term losers. Could be a lot of short term losers as well. I’d imagine these would be some of the first I’m out stocks.

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48 minutes ago, Todem said:

This is when large cap value stocks become very attractive. But there is nothing wrong with sitting on cash while you wait for a correction. Then you can go to town on great stocks on sale. 

You don't want to fall into the trap of selling everything if you have long term goals. I can’t stress that enough. I would not be more than 30% cash ever in a long term goal account and sit on that for extended amounts of time. 

Yeah tactical management is part of what I do. But I don’t sit in 30% cash that often. Most of the time we are fully invested. 

This market today is really showing the tell tale signs of irrational exuberance. It is hard to ignore for myself personally.

I'm hardly ever in cash in my accounts. But I'm not worried about a correction. Obviously if COVID 21 hit that would be bad. 

I'll keep some in VNQ and VPU, as hedges but those obviously can decrease in price too.

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43 minutes ago, cosjobs said:

I assume you mean a market correction and not a btc correction.

Also, are you confident that it will increase in value through a correction? IIRRC Gold went down with the market last time.

Bitcoin hit a low of $3k in March when stocks crashed. BTC is it’s own thing but when stocks have done well it’s generally followed. It hasn’t been around for any other bear markets but I wouldn’t be confident that it wouldn’t drop if a correction in stocks happen as well.

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58 minutes ago, Todem said:

I have had a tried and true strategy my entire life. If you have good companies and have made 100% plus in them. Sell your original investment. Get your risk premium back. Look for another stock. You're on house money the rest of that stocks existence in your portfolio. 

So if it keeps going up.....you reap. If it collapses.....well you got your original investment out.

I have done that with dozens and dozens of stocks over the course of my life. Including Apple and Amazon etc etc. And of course they kept running up and running and running. All on house money.

But every stock is different. So you gotta know what you own. It is a slippery slope. And not one I give broad based advice on.

But the rule I gave above is basic money management and gambling 101. 

I will say I’ve ignored your rule a lot this past year+ and it’s worked out well! I have trimmed some winners (TTD) because it was getting to big and it was a mistake or (ZM/FSLY) because they felt like an unsustainable bubble and it was a great call. That said, I’m 100% with you to trim. I just feels so hard because it’s another ATH today.

I think I’ll be trimming some of these: SEDG, ROKU, MDB, AMZN, ZS, CRNC and maybe others. Honestly, even with the jokes I think Amazon might be one of the safer ones where people might flock to and hasn’t really blown up. In about 2.5 years it’s only gone up 50% and its revenue growth is about 75% over that same period.

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8 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I think I’ll be trimming some of these: SEDG, ROKU, MDB, AMZN, ZS, CRNC and maybe others. Honestly, even with the jokes I think Amazon might be one of the safer ones where people might flock to and hasn’t really blown up. In about 2.5 years it’s only gone up 50% and its revenue growth is about 75% over that same period.

Another convert.

One of the last remaining stalwarts has fallen Mr. Bezos.  Would you please tender your resignation if you are going to continue to lolly gag and loaf.

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Two stocks that seem to be hot/getting hot that I have are SWAV, which I’ve mentioned as far back as April, and EBS. I bought SWAV a year and half ago higher than I should have. Took till July/August almost a year later to be green but it’s more than doubled since then. It was my example with APPN that not all stocks pop right away but if they are good companies when they pop they can jump. EBS bought off the highs but above the recent lows and it’s just now 14% up. They have a deal with J&J to manufacture their vaccine. If that vaccine rolls out as planned it would be a nice revenue jump. Seems that might be the reason for the breakout. 

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5 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Two stocks that seem to be hot/getting hot that I have are SWAV, which I’ve mentioned as far back as April, and EBS. I bought SWAV a year and half ago higher than I should have. Took till July/August almost a year later to be green but it’s more than doubled since then. It was my example with APPN that not all stocks pop right away but if they are good companies when they pop they can jump. EBS bought off the highs but above the recent lows and it’s just now 14% up. They have a deal with J&J to manufacture their vaccine. If that vaccine rolls out as planned it would be a nice revenue jump. Seems that might be the reason for the breakout. 

I love EBS.....another recommendation I made as well. Great company. That was in the same post as BLDP in November before my second imposed month vacation LMAO.

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3 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Another convert.

One of the last remaining stalwarts has fallen Mr. Bezos.  Would you please tender your resignation if you are going to continue to lolly gag and loaf.

Haven’t sold anything yet, still my biggest holding. It is, however, my largest taxable owning under long term gains so could be a really quick way to raise cash without much thinking.

It is helping me trounce the market today, so not the best day for you!

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6 minutes ago, stbugs said:

Haven’t sold anything yet, still my biggest holding. It is, however, my largest taxable owning under long term gains so could be a really quick way to raise cash without much thinking.

It is helping me trounce the market today, so not the best day for you!

Today shaping up to be a good day, but Bezos can taketh that away if he's not done making his three decisions on the day.

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12 minutes ago, Todem said:

I love EBS.....another recommendation I made as well. Great company. That was in the same post as BLDP in November before my second imposed month vacation LMAO.

Too bad I don’t remember even seeing that on BLDP and didn’t jump in soon enough last week. I bought EBS in October. On the way down but before the bottom. Only 35 shares as it was an extra buy for me not a MF rec. 

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1 hour ago, SFBayDuck said:

I just took a position in NGABU, a Spac that started trading today and is already up to $11.60.  I typically don't like to buy these once they cross $11 to minimize that downside risk.  But this is likely an EV play as their first SPAC was NGA which has announced a merger with Lion Electric, and has run up to around $30 here pre-merger.

Wondering how good the quality is still going to be on new SPACs. I think the top investment guys will continue to snag good companies but if you read @ConstruxBoy’s link on SA, historical returns in SPACs are bad.

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Johnson and Johnson's vaccine will likely be getting a lot of good press over the next few months.  Their vaccine is a one shot vaccine.  It stays good stored for months with just refrigeration.  The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require 2 doses and need to be frozen at a really low temperatures.  They haven't released the vaccine trial results but JNJ seems confident that their data are good.  Vaccine sales aren't super lucrative but people will buy JNJ stock with the good press.

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Just now, stbugs said:

Wondering how good the quality is still going to be on new SPACs. I think the top investment guys will continue to snag good companies but if you read @ConstruxBoy’s link on SA, historical returns in SPACs are bad.

Yeah I've been doing some research on these things, and most significantly underperform the market post-merger.  So for the most part I'm playing these as pre-merger trades, looking for a drift upwards pre-announcement (like with QELLU or IPOF) or a pop on announcement. 

Of course then you have situations like ACTC yesterday that jumped 100% with their announcement, and while it's given back a little bit today I am intrigued with that one and may hold for a bit, or I may end up taking out my initial investment and letting the rest ride.

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6 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Johnson and Johnson's vaccine will likely be getting a lot of good press over the next few months.  Their vaccine is a one shot vaccine.  It stays good stored for months with just refrigeration.  The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require 2 doses and need to be frozen at a really low temperatures.  They haven't released the vaccine trial results but JNJ seems confident that their data are good.  Vaccine sales aren't super lucrative but people will buy JNJ stock with the good press.

That’s why I’m keeping EBS. Way smaller company so making an extra few hundred million can move their stock a bunch. May add more if it dips again but good with what I have.

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3 hours ago, ConstruxBoy said:

So are you talking about a long term investment account here? Taxable or Tax Advantaged? Are you taking about funds or stocks?

 

Long term. Both Roth and traditional IRA (Vanguard). Roughly $x in the Roth and $3x in the taxable account. I'm mostly talking about individual stocks but I'm moving into Value ETFs and GLD.

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On 1/11/2021 at 1:58 PM, McBokonon said:

Sold my $IMMR for a 25% gain, will set a reminder to look again a month or so out as we approach earnings. Put some of the proceeds into super spec play $BNGO, genomics company with a platform they are showing off this week, rumors once they get their listing fully reinstated funds including ARK looking to load up. Picks and shovels genetics play, basically.

This part just happened, slight bump after hours after a late day spike. This one is almost as speculative as $NNOX so if that price action has made you seasick, this one is likely a stay away for you, too. 

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25 minutes ago, pecorino said:

Long term. Both Roth and traditional IRA (Vanguard). Roughly $x in the Roth and $3x in the taxable account. I'm mostly talking about individual stocks but I'm moving into Value ETFs and GLD.

So are you selling stocks you like just because they are Growth oriented? Or do you think they are all overvalued and you can buy them back after a correction?

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25 minutes ago, McBokonon said:

This part just happened, slight bump after hours after a late day spike. This one is almost as speculative as $NNOX so if that price action has made you seasick, this one is likely a stay away for you, too. 

$BNGO huh? Is it a farmer than owns a dog? 

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2 minutes ago, ConstruxBoy said:

So are you selling stocks you like just because they are Growth oriented? Or do you think they are all overvalued and you can buy them back after a correction?

I sold PLTR, AMRN, NKTR, RUBY, TDOC, NERV, MDT, TJX, BFT and KALA. I bought GLD and one long term in-the-money LMT call. I looked at FDX when someone noted it as a value play. The P/E is over 27. So, yes, I think a lot of names are bloated and I want to have plenty of cash to buy something like FDX (or, yes, maybe some of the names that I just sold) after a drop. 

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15 minutes ago, pecorino said:

I sold PLTR, AMRN, NKTR, RUBY, TDOC, NERV, MDT, TJX, BFT and KALA. I bought GLD and one long term in-the-money LMT call. I looked at FDX when someone noted it as a value play. The P/E is over 27. So, yes, I think a lot of names are bloated and I want to have plenty of cash to buy something like FDX (or, yes, maybe some of the names that I just sold) after a drop. 

As majority shareholder and acting CEO of NERV I am extremely disappointed to see you sell.  You could have at least bought one of my 5c calls for $1.  I have plenty for sale.

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