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Stock Thread (12 Viewers)

-OZ- said:
'In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 22.4% above the estimates, which is also above the 5-year average of 6.3%,” FactSet’s John Butters observed on Friday. “If 22.4% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the second-largest earnings surprise percentage reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.”

And as we head into one of the busiest weeks of earnings season, analysts continue to believe the bar for companies is far too low.

"Our Global Equity strategists believe that consensus earnings expectations are too conservative for Q4 results,” JPMorgan’s John Normand said on Friday. And while investors’ fears about the future tend to be biased toward downside risks, businesses are reminding us that they often surprise to the upside.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q4-2020-earnings-beating-expectations-by-historic-margin-morning-brief-111240817.html

What weak economy? 🤔
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I will say that very, very few of my stocks have reported yet, this and next week look like the big weeks. That said, how far down are estimates ratcheted outside of the tech sector, which for the most part didn’t really drop this year like other sectors. I seem to remember some earlier “beats” this year where revenue was down 80% but still beat estimates.

 
Todem said:
It will not end well.
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Yep, I’m not good at that stuff so I’ll keep the stocks I like long term and not get stuck with GME at $90 hoping it goes to $150.

As much as I don’t like trimming, I will keep trying to trim when I feel like the stocks I have, which are going up, have gone too far and I can pick up again cheaper.

 
stbugs said:
Yep, I’m not good at that stuff so I’ll keep the stocks I like long term and not get stuck with GME at $90 hoping it goes to $150.

As much as I don’t like trimming, I will keep trying to trim when I feel like the stocks I have, which are going up, have gone too far and I can pick up again cheaper.
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Yeah. I am 75% invested in my taxable account and 100% in 401K and IRA.

I really do not try to time markets. But in my taxable account I will trim and build cash when I see irrational exuberance. It is on full display right now. Trying to time when it will pop is a fools errand.

I own all high quality. Not concerned long term. But being 25% cash allows me to scoop up more of what I own at cheaper prices when the police raid the brothel and take the pretty ones too.

I have seen this numerous times in my investing life. Different color, different names, but the emotional aspect is exactly the same every single time.

Be careful, know what you own inside and out. 
 

Another word of advice for all of you. And this applies probably 70% of the time in your investment life cycle.

“You can become wealthy being concentrated but you will not stay wealthy being concentrated”

When will this correction happen? I simply do not know. So I have my 25% cash, I keep plowing my max contribution into my 401K and I keep analyzing my positions monthly to make sure the convictions I have on them are still sound and true. If I have some extra cash at the end of the month I deposit that into my taxable account to build more cash to be ready for it “when” not “if” the correction happens.

BTW....still love:

AMT

AMZN

BLDP

DIS

EBS

MDU

At these levels. 

 
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Todem said:
They cover and are wiped out. Pure market manipulation carnage going on in GME right now. Tables are being turned on some hedge funds who may get wiped out from this.
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The funny thing is that I don’t really care about retail fleecing some of these guys who put out fake reports and take advantage of info retail investors don’t know. That said, war is never good on the civilians who live in the war zone.

 
Todem said:
They cover and are wiped out. Pure market manipulation carnage going on in GME right now. Tables are being turned on some hedge funds who may get wiped out from this.
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You forgot to mention the bridge-jumping part.

About your 25% cash position mentioned earlier, is that a top-end number for you? In other words, could you get to, say 40% cash, if the irrationality continues? 

 
Todem said:
Yeah. I am 75% invested in my taxable account and 100% in 401K and IRA.

I really do not try to time markets. But in my taxable account I will trim and build cash when I see irrational exuberance. It is on full display right now. Trying to time when it will pop is a fools errand.

I own all high quality. Not concerned long term. But being 25% cash allows me to scoop up more of what I own at cheaper prices when the police raid the brothel and take the pretty ones too.

I have seen this numerous times in my investing life. Different color, different names, but the emotional aspect is exactly the same every single time.

Be careful, know what you own inside and out. 
 

Another word of advice for all of you. And this applies probably 70% of the time in your investment life cycle.

“You can become wealthy being concentrated but you will not stay wealthy being concentrated”

When will this correction happen? I simply do not know. So I have my 25% cash, I keep plowing my max contribution into my 401K and I keep analyzing my positions monthly to make sure the convictions I have on them are still sound and true. If I have some extra cash at the end of the month I deposit that into my taxable account to build more cash to be ready for it “when” not “if” the correction happens.

BTW....still love:

AMT

AMZN

BLDP

DIS

EBS

MDU

At these levels. 
Click to expand...
401k is what it is and will keep plowing as usual. I think I’m probably around 10% total cash right now across my three trading accounts (added my wife’s rollover). One of the stocks I bought last week for her popped 20% this morning which ticked me off as I was going to add that to my kids’ new accounts for long term. Wasn’t quick enough and it wasn’t going to be a lot but they would have enjoyed making money.

 
Ok, here’s a trim candidate that I think is very overvalued but a long term play.

I have 200 shares of APPN. It’s up 378% since I bought it and it’s well in long term capital gains.

The price to sales is 50+, which is a lot and it’s revenue growth isn’t huge like ZM or others. It’s probably in the 15-20% range. It spiked to about 200 in November and it was down to 140 the next day. It’s at 216 now. There’s no doubt in my mind that if there is a dip, it’s headed down there again maybe even close to 100. Just for perspective I bought in the 40s and in March, it hit a low of 29.

Thoughts? It would bump my taxable account up to 20% cash in one sale and I really feel like I did with ZM and FSLY that it’s well overpriced right now. 

 
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beef said:
Is DASH worth more than all the businesses they deliver for?
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No. I don’t believe in them long term but if they do a secondary, maybe they have, they’ll be able to bleed cash forever. Reminds me of Groupon and their declining revenue for years. You don’t hear about them at all anymore but still have cash to burn. 

 
stbugs said:
Ok, here’s a trim candidate that I think is very overvalued but a long term play.

I have 200 shares of APPN. It’s up 378% since I bought it and it’s well in long term capital gains.

The price to sales is 50+, which is a lot and it’s revenue growth isn’t huge like ZM or others. It’s probably in the 15-20% range. It spiked to about 200 in November and it was down to 140 the next day. It’s at 216 now. There’s no doubt in my mind that if there is a dip, it’s headed down there again maybe even close to 100. Just for perspective I bought in the 40s and in March, it hit a low of 29.

Thoughts? It would bump my taxable account up to 20% cash in one sale and I really feel like I did with ZM and FSLY that it’s well overpriced right now. 
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Shouldn't ask me because I'd be trimming.  Eating "W's" is never bad.

Trimmed some TDOC, CLOV, and ASO today.  Added so more shippers on the dip.

 
BassNBrew said:
Shouldn't ask me because I'd be trimming.  Eating "W's" is never bad.

Trimmed some TDOC, CLOV, and ASO today.  Added so more shippers on the dip.
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Hah, I know you. You would have already been out! TDOC has run quite a bit as well. I put in a 215 limit order on APPN. Should have just sold instead of asking! It has gone up about 50% in two weeks. If it doesn’t get back up to 215 I’ll check in the afternoon. 

 
stbugs said:
Hah, I know you. You would have already been out! TDOC has run quite a bit as well. I put in a 215 limit order on APPN. Should have just sold instead of asking! It has gone up about 50% in two weeks. If it doesn’t get back up to 215 I’ll check in the afternoon. 
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Trimming half of my Desktop Metal.  Officially a double up.

 
-OZ- said:
If you're looking for value to hold, walmart and Amazon seem like safer bets.

I triggered another ¼ ($1500) of my Roth IRA this afternoon. Just into the pie, which ends up being VIOO, VB, and CAT. totally unsexy but those were underweight. 

Also just bought $2k in Kroger.  PE under 9, 2% dividend, probably among the safer plays. Plus I like shopping there.

Call me unsexy. 
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BassNBrew said:
I have about 1.5% invested in Kroger right now at an average of $31.29.  We could have a huge meltdown and the downside is probably $27.  I'll look to trim around $40.
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It's no GME but I'll take 7.5% up for Kroger

 
:) KOPN doing quite well today too.

Really shoulda bought more. It's a triple bagger for me.

What's the phrase for when a stock is up more in a day than your cost basis? 🤔

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Bottom fell out of the whole market over the last 15 minutes.  I had to check news feed to see if a nuke had just detonated somewhere or something.
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WTF. I was up over 2%. Now down almost 2%. Definitely should have dumped APPN when I was thinking about it!

 
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