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***Official Buffalo Bills Thread 2021 Version: The Quest to Sustain Success***


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I did.  i had a child go from not even a toddler to a freshman in college with this team stumbling around in the wilderness.  This day was big for us.

Guys. The Bills are playing next week. The drought is over. The Bills are going to the playoffs.

I'm starting to suspect that being known as a Bills fan is starting to undermine my colleague's assessment of my own professional competence.  I think that for them, it's kind of like finding out that

1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I wonder if Brady stays if the team had put the slightest bit of effort into giving their QB a supporting cast.  Oh well -- not our problem.

I also wonder if the Pats were just trying to drive up the price knowing Buffalo was their main competition.  Might have forced us to toss in an extra draft pick or two.

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A lot to say about this game, but at the end of the day these were the KC drive results:

Punt, TD, TD, TD, Half, FG, TD, TD, End of Game

Bad coaching, kicking FGs, better QB play....at the end of the day you needed to be nearly perfect when this is what they did. Just an amazing team that we need to defend better next year. 
 

A great year, sad it is over but excited for the future. 

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I've been a fan of this team for a very long time, but I'll admit that my sprits tanked during the Jauron years and it took a little while for me to get over that.  The 2017 Bills -- who had absolutely no business making the playoffs but somehow snapped that drought anyway -- really renewed my love of this franchise.  What they've done since then has been sensational.  I had pretty high expectations for this season and this team exceeded those by a significant margin.  Great year.

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Great year for Bills fans. Enjoyed following the team and you guys in the game threads this year. You guys have a really good club, and I wish you success in the near future over the Patriots and Phins (if not the Jets).

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How many years does Allen have left on his rookie deal? I think that itself is a good indication on how big your current window to "win it all is". You currently are #14 in cap spending so you have ample room to add a few free agents and really sell out on defense to win a championship.

I think if the Buffalo GM knew how good this team was going to be, they would have spent a little more in Free Agency. I'm nervous for you guys though, as an Arizona Cardinals fan I am very used to going 13-3 one year and going 7-9 the next.


It doesn't even have to be a talent thing. A few untimely injuries and suddenly it's a wasted year. I don't think your division gets better anytime soon. Dolphins are obviously your biggest competition but don't snooze on those Patriots. They had a lot of defensive players opt out and there are seemingly many qualified QBs available this offseason (Wentz, Stafford, etc).


I'm happy for you guys though. When I first got into Fantasy, you guys were trotting out Lee Evans and JP Losman. When I played Madden as a kid, I would always Fantasy Draft the Buffalo Bills because the team hadn't really had an "identity" in a few years. I'm just rambling now.


The league has become the Patrick Mahomes show and there's a reason so many defensive lineman get drafted in the First Round. You've got to get to the Quarterback. Once Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce lose a step, I think the window opens back up for everybody. But having the best deepball thrower to go with the fastest player in the league is going to cause some problems. Now that you're committing a safety, have fun finding a linebacker who can play the run and guard Travis Kelce.
 

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As a lifelong Bills fan, I'm accustomed to thinking about the off-season starting around week 8 or so.  It's strange to have the off-season crash down upon you suddenly in late January.  A few very early thoughts:

1) The offense is pretty good shape and just needs some tweaks that should be pretty easy to pull off.  This time last year, we needed a quality WR1 and had to keep our fingers crossed about Allen's development.  There's nothing that big sitting out there this year, but I do see two relatively easy areas for improvement.  The first is at RB.  We don't need a Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley, but we do need somebody who can relegate Singletary to a change-of-pace role.  Moss showed flashes, but nothing that would convince me that he's the answer.  Next year's starting RB is not currently on our roster IMO.  The good news is that RBs are pretty easy to come by either in the draft or FA. 

2) I don't want to overreact to Brown disappearing down the stretch -- I get that he was banged up.  That said, my sense is that Davis has already passed him on the depth chart and I would not be surprised or disappointed if he was a cap casualty this year.  Diggs/Beasley/Davis is a great starting lineup, and we can add more quality depth through the draft and FA without breaking the bank.  

3) I don't honestly know what the deal with the defense is -- it looked like it was kind of turning a corner during the second half of the season, but we played some really lousy (Pittsburgh, Denver, Miami, New England, etc.) and one-dimensional (Baltimore) offenses during that time.  Indianapolis lit us up in the WC round -- the score of that game doesn't reflect all the points they left on the field.  And of course there was last night.  I wouldn't fault the defense for giving up points to the Chiefs just like I didn't fault them for giving up points to the Seahawks, but we didn't even seriously threaten to slow them down.  I'm not sure what the solution is to getting torched by every above-average TE that comes along, but that needs to be a priority.  The pass rush is also underwhelming.  Unfortunately, pass rushers are a lot harder to find and a lot more expensive than RBs and backup WRs.  

4) We are in the unfamiliar position of being forced to let some good players walk over the next couple of years due to the salary cap.  Allen is going to get a massive deal either this year or next, and I'm completely on board with that, but it's going to mean losing a few other guys.  Right now, I'm kind of inclined to prioritize getting Milano signed.  Williams is another good option to lock up, depending on the price point.  I am growing extremely frustrated with Edmunds -- I would support picking up his fifth year option, but he needs to show something over the next two seasons before I invest a lot of money in a guy who hasn't been a difference maker, to put it charitably.  

All in all, it's a great time to be a fan of this franchise.  It took forever, but we got our franchise QB.  We've got a good roster around him.  There's no reason why we shouldn't make another solid playoff run next year.   

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To clarify #4, I think we ask Allen how much money wants to make and give it to him.  The other guys are all price-dependent.  That should go without saying, but it's worth being explicit about it.  Milano is a good LB and the defense is pretty obviously better when he's on the field, but he's not elite and if the choice is between paying him elite LB money versus letting him walk, then I wish him well in his future endeavors.  This assumes that we're able to re-sign Milano for "pretty good LB" money, and Williams for "pretty good RT" money.  Maybe that happens and maybe it doesn't.  #17 is the only guy who I would say we extend no matter what.

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I would love to see some analysis in coming days on what the Bills were trying to do on D. 
I get Kelse is talented. But there were many catches he just ran, turned around, and caught the ball.
 

Maybe it turns out that there was a failure to execute, but my assumption is they just had a bad, bad game plan and didn’t adjust it.  They were going to stick with their zone no matter what. Epic failure against this QB and those weapons. 

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21 minutes ago, The Duff Man said:

I would love to see some analysis in coming days on what the Bills were trying to do on D. 
I get Kelse is talented. But there were many catches he just ran, turned around, and caught the ball.
 

Maybe it turns out that there was a failure to execute, but my assumption is they just had a bad, bad game plan and didn’t adjust it.  They were going to stick with their zone no matter what. Epic failure against this QB and those weapons. 

How many times did we see Kelce catch the ball and there was no Bills defender even on the screen?  I know he's going to get catches and you aren't going to shut him down, but it's like we decided not to even bother to try to defend him.  

And of course we saw the exact same thing with Gesicki.  Twice.  (Edit: Actually I see now that we did better against Gesicki in week 17, but you get the idea.  We really struggled with TEs).

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All things considered, it was a much better season that I expected.  I expected at least a playoff berth - anything else would've been a disappointment.  

I agree with many of Ivan's points above.  Paying Allen is a no-brainer.  Yes they can cheap-out and keep him on a rookie deal, but I don't think that plays well with other players around the league.

Pick up Edmunds' 5th year option and continue evaluating him.  If you can get Milano and Williams for a decent buck, do it.  If you can restructure John Brown's deal, happy to have him around, but if it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out.  A couple of cap casualties on the D-line.

My point of emphasis this offseason is the D-line and the running game.  There are some serviceable-yet-aging guys worth keeping - Hughes, Addison, Star.  Darryl Johnson and Justin Zimmer are okay depth players who should be fairly cheap, fine.  Butler, Jefferson, and Trent Murphy do nothing for me, and should be considerations for the chopping-block.  Oliver and Epenesa, too early to call, though at least Oliver makes some splash plays.  I'm pretty sure Harrison Phillips is a bust but he's on a cheap rookie deal so he's a depth player.  This team needs at least 1 viable pass-rusher and at least 1 viable 1-tech DT. 

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I think one thing that is being overlooked is the effect of crowd noise.  I don't think the Bills offense has faced any meaningful crowd noise all year until the AFCCG.  (Same thing with the Ravens last week).  I know they've all dealt with it in the careers, and probably practiced with it in mind, but there's nothing like actually experiencing it in a game.  You can say the Buccs overcame it at Lambeau, but at least based on the broadcast, Lambeau sounded nothing like Arrowhead this week or Bills Stadium last week.

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6 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

How many times did we see Kelce catch the ball and there was no Bills defender even on the screen?  I know he's going to get catches and you aren't going to shut him down, but it's like we decided not to even bother to try to defend him.  

Exactly.  Kelce really seemed to be WIDE open all game.  Almost like we were trying to bait Mahomes into throwing him the ball, which would have been a good plan if Kelce stinks and he somehow had the game of his life.  But he has had the occasional good game before.

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Cole Beasley revealed today that he played the last month on a broken leg. Crazy. I’m sure that explains a good bit why the Bills struggled against the KC man coverage so much. Beasley is their best man beater and the dude was playing on a broken fibula!

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3 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Cole Beasley revealed today that he played the last month on a broken leg. Crazy. I’m sure that explains a good bit why the Bills struggled against the KC man coverage so much. Beasley is their best man beater and the dude was playing on a broken fibula!

Are you sure it is not because Josh Allen stinks? 

Kidding.  You were right about him.  Wow what an emergence. 

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Really sucks we had what looked like 3 out of our 4 wrs not at full strength. Not sure why they even let Gabe Davis suit up, he had nothing. Beasley, what a warrior.

Granted we didn’t stop KC’s offense at all, but still kinda sucks.

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A few weeks ago, I thought it looked highly likely that we would be in the market for new coordinators on both sides of the ball.  Instead we get them both back next year.  That's wild.  Definitely good news IMO since this team's window is so obviously open and we don't need to go making major scheme changes or anything.  On the other hand, I do worry slightly about the lethargy that can be created by having the exact same guys working together for what will now be four years.  

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And I'm sure we're all still a little wounded over getting beaten on Sunday, but imagine being a Houston fan today.  If you feel like there's a big gulf separating us from KC, it's as if some of these other teams occupy different solar systems than us right now.

Of course I'll probably find this less amusing when Watson gets traded to New England for a second round pick and backup safety.

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On 1/28/2021 at 11:41 AM, IvanKaramazov said:

And I'm sure we're all still a little wounded over getting beaten on Sunday, but imagine being a Houston fan today.  If you feel like there's a big gulf separating us from KC, it's as if some of these other teams occupy different solar systems than us right now.

Of course I'll probably find this less amusing when Watson gets traded to New England for a second round pick and backup safety.

All true.

And as much as it sucked to lose last week, can you imagine losing another Super Bowl, to Tom Brady?

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3 hours ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

All true.

And as much as it sucked to lose last week, can you imagine losing another Super Bowl, to Tom Brady?

I would take the Super Bowl loss in a second. Imagine all the fun and hype leading up to the Bills being in a SB?  Getting to watch our Buffalo Bills on the biggest stage?

 Sure, losing to Brady would suck.  But losing to the best QB to ever play in the NFL is nothing to scoff at 

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The end-of-the-year awards went about like I expected.  Allen had a great year that would have been worthy of MVP most seasons, but Rodgers was other-worldly and I have zero complaints about how that award went.  If Allen's career goes as planned, he'll get his down the road eventually.  I don't pay much attention to Cleveland so I can't say a lot about COTY aside from the fact that I'm extremely pleased with our guy.  I just hope McDermott doubles down on in-game analytics and turns the KC game into an aberration.  

Daboll's award came as a bit of a surprise, but it's well-deserved.  This is the first time since Marchibroda that I really feel affirmatively good about our OC.  It's still crazy that he and Bieniemy are coming back to their respective teams next year.  That seems almost unfair, but hey I'll take it.  

One nice thing about the Bills becoming good is that I greatly enjoy watching random NFL games again.  I had fallen into the rut of just watching the Bills stumble through their normal 1:00 ET games and then doing whatever the rest of the weekend.  For the past 2-3 years I've been watching both Sunday time slots every week and catching at some of the prime time games more often than not.  Now I sort of don't know what to do with my Sundays.  Once we get past the SB, my tentative plan is to go back and re-watch this season's games (wins only, of course).  It wasn't that long ago that such an assignment would have just consumed a long weekend -- now I have to figure out how to fit in 15 wins into my weekend viewing without getting bored or burned out.  Maybe start the first of March and do one a week?    

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On 1/30/2021 at 10:04 AM, Grigs Allmoon said:

All true.

And as much as it sucked to lose last week, can you imagine losing another Super Bowl, to Tom Brady?

I would have loved the last two weeks. I would have HATED to lose to Brady. I actually ended up cheering for him tonight. 
 

At this point, what is another ring for Brady. What I didn’t want to happen was continue building the legacy of KC and Mahomes as the next dynasty.  That narrative took a hit tonight.

I am happy with the result, I just have to shake my head at Brady continuing to be super human. 
 

Hoping the Bills put what little cash and picks they have into the lines. We saw tonight what happens when you dominate up front. 

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I'll admit it, I've always liked Brady.  He's the greatest to ever do it.  He clearly works harder than everyone else, understands the game better than anyone else, takes immaculate care of his body, he's married to a supermodel.  It's a shame he was in the Bills division for all of those years, but separating the person and the appreciation of greatness from the annual two wins over your favorite team, it's tough not to like the guy.  He's the greatest.

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18 hours ago, Steve Tasker said:

I'll admit it, I've always liked Brady.  He's the greatest to ever do it.  He clearly works harder than everyone else, understands the game better than anyone else, takes immaculate care of his body, he's married to a supermodel.  It's a shame he was in the Bills division for all of those years, but separating the person and the appreciation of greatness from the annual two wins over your favorite team, it's tough not to like the guy.  He's the greatest.

Oh, it's not that tough.  I've managed to hate Brady for about 20 years now.

That said, it is sort of interesting that my general feeling toward Brady has switched over to one of mostly indifference since he left New England.  If the Bills had reached the super bowl only to lose to Brady and Gronkowski, that might have broken me, but I didn't really care on Sunday -- that game was just another deeply weird event in what has been a weird year.  

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On 2/8/2021 at 11:11 AM, Steve Tasker said:

I'll admit it, I've always liked Brady.  He's the greatest to ever do it.  He clearly works harder than everyone else, understands the game better than anyone else, takes immaculate care of his body, he's married to a supermodel.  It's a shame he was in the Bills division for all of those years, but separating the person and the appreciation of greatness from the annual two wins over your favorite team, it's tough not to like the guy.  He's the greatest.

Tom Brady is a proven cheater.  I will never forgive that.  No respect for him at all.

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1 hour ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

Anyone have any thoughts on JJ Watt? I'd love to add him, but definitely not anywhere near the 17 mil price tag he was due for this year.

All said, I really think he'll sign with Green Bay.

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8 hours ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

All said, I really think he'll sign with Green Bay.

I could definitely see him going to Pittsburgh to play with his brothers as well. I think him ending up in Buffalo is a long shot.

All in all what’s pretty infuriating is that the Bills keeping Trent Murphy will very likely cost them at least one good player this year. More likely Milano than Watt, but still pretty aggravating. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Any thoughts on the value of Jake Fromm moving forward? Has he shown enough to lead the Bills in the case of an Allen injury? Trying to decide if he is worth the roster slot in my deep dynasty league or if it would be better to take a flyer on a different prospect.

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4 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Any thoughts on the value of Jake Fromm moving forward? Has he shown enough to lead the Bills in the case of an Allen injury? Trying to decide if he is worth the roster slot in my deep dynasty league or if it would be better to take a flyer on a different prospect.

He has no value and will be out of the league in a year IMO. 

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53 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Any thoughts on the value of Jake Fromm moving forward? Has he shown enough to lead the Bills in the case of an Allen injury? Trying to decide if he is worth the roster slot in my deep dynasty league or if it would be better to take a flyer on a different prospect.

He hasn't shown anything since college. 0 NFL playing time, no rookie mini-camp/training camp last year. Your best bet would be to see if the Bills release Barkley, which is most likely going to happen, seeing as they drafted Fromm. It's up to you though, he might not see the field all year, or maybe he'll play a couple games if Allen gets injured. But will he play good?? i couldn't tell you.

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20 hours ago, Born to Run said:

Any thoughts on the value of Jake Fromm moving forward? Has he shown enough to lead the Bills in the case of an Allen injury? Trying to decide if he is worth the roster slot in my deep dynasty league or if it would be better to take a flyer on a different prospect.

The Bills intentionally kept Fromm away from the rest of the team the entire year -- he was their "break glass in case of emergency" QB with an eye toward avoiding the kind of situation that Denver found themselves in.  That made a lot of sense for this last season, but it means that we have -- literally -- no information whatsoever about Fromm besides old scouting reports from before the draft.

My personal guess is that he'll compete for the #2 role in camp this year against Barkley or, more likely, against whatever journeyman they sign to replace Barkley.  Sitting here today, he could be a solid backup for the next several seasons, or he could be cut this August.  Who knows.  

The consensus among fans seems to be that the Bills have zero attachment to Fromm and won't hesitate to let him go if they can land somebody better.  Take that for what it's worth.

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On the subject of backup QBs... I am very curious to see what Alex Smith and Fitz sign for. I'd love to put either of those two vets behind Allen for both security and mentorship. That said, I know the team is up against the cap, so I don't think either will be an option. I don't really mind going into the season with Barkley as backup, or Fromm if he shows something.

 

Also, SOOOO glad the Bills didn't spend even 8 mil on Watt. Good for him for getting what he did, but WAY too rich for my blood.

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Morse has apparently agreed to a pay cut to stay with the Bills.  There's been some low-key chatter about him possibly being cut for salary cap purposes, so this contract renegotiation should (I guess) clear that one up.  Interestingly though, there was at least some chance that we might have re-signed Feliciano to play center -- if he comes back now, he'll come back as a guard, albeit one that has very good positional flexibility.  I really do not want to see Feliciano sign elsewhere, and I hope this move doesn't foreshadow some kind of snag with Feliciano's negotiations.    

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5 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Morse has apparently agreed to a pay cut to stay with the Bills.  There's been some low-key chatter about him possibly being cut for salary cap purposes, so this contract renegotiation should (I guess) clear that one up.  Interestingly though, there was at least some chance that we might have re-signed Feliciano to play center -- if he comes back now, he'll come back as a guard, albeit one that has very good positional flexibility.  I really do not want to see Feliciano sign elsewhere, and I hope this move doesn't foreshadow some kind of snag with Feliciano's negotiations.    

Sounds like he pretty much just offered to take a straight up pay cut. Kind of cool that the Bills have become a team where guys are willing to take pay cuts to stay with the team because they believe in what is being built and are willing to sacrifice money to build the team.

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29 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

4 years $44M for Milano is an absolute bargain IMO. He took a pretty big haircut to stay in Buffalo. Did not see him signing with them coming at all.

Wow. I hadn't heard that yet. Definite surprise.

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35 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

4 years $44M for Milano is an absolute bargain IMO. He took a pretty big haircut to stay in Buffalo. Did not see him signing with them coming at all.

Hometown discount.  How great is it to see guys willing to take pay cuts to stay here and be a part of this?

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Bills sign Williams to a 3 year deal worth $28M with $14M guaranteed. Will have to see exactly how it’s structured to see what the “real” numbers are. At $9M per year, that seems a bit pricey to me though most seem to think he was pretty good at RT last year. Not sure the running game numbers back that assessment up, but if the real number is closer to 2 years $7M/yr, maybe that makes more sense.

Gotta think that there are some more cuts coming though. And I’m not sure how they sign Feliciano back at this point.

If they want to get a deal worked out with Allen over the next year or so, they’re going to need to start cutting some corners somewhere. Can’t pay everyone.

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Between Milano, Williams, Feliciano, Morse, Addison, Butler, etc., Beane has certainly earned his March paycheck.  And FA hasn't even really started yet.  We obviously don't have enough money to make any big signings, but we should be an attractive destination for guys looking for a one-year deal to hold them over for a friendlier cap year.

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2 hours ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Between Milano, Williams, Feliciano, Morse, Addison, Butler, etc., Beane has certainly earned his March paycheck.  And FA hasn't even really started yet.  We obviously don't have enough money to make any big signings, but we should be an attractive destination for guys looking for a one-year deal to hold them over for a friendlier cap year.

Damn, they inked Feliciano, too. More good news...

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11 minutes ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

Damn, they inked Feliciano, too. More good news...

Biggest needs left are an edge rusher and a #2 CB.

Kind of crazy that their desired starting OL played zero snaps together last year. Hoping having them all there to begin with and Ford at OG makes some improvements for them because they do need to be better.

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5 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Biggest needs left are an edge rusher and a #2 CB.

Kind of crazy that their desired starting OL played zero snaps together last year. Hoping having them all there to begin with and Ford at OG makes some improvements for them because they do need to be better.

Entering this offseason I wanted to see a little improvement at OL with either FA $ or draft capital, but at this point, I am fine with what they've done there. Go after some DL help with a top 50 pick (trade up from 1; pick at 1; trade down from 1; trade up from 2) and lean toward BPA for the rest.

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Watching the Patriots desperately overpay players now that guys aren’t giving them the “I want to play with Brady for a ring” discount is pretty glorious.

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17 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

Watching the Patriots desperately overpay players now that guys aren’t giving them the “I want to play with Brady for a ring” discount is pretty glorious.

Feels like Belichick’s last major attempt to be good again before calling it quits. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Peterson said:

Feels like Belichick’s last major attempt to be good again before calling it quits. 

It does indeed. His problem is that he has a glaring hole at the most important position. Going to be hard to plug that hole at this point.

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1 hour ago, GroveDiesel said:

Bills reportedly have a deal in place with Emmanuel Sanders. Not sure this one moves my meter very much.

$6M on a one year deal is a bit rich for my taste for what I think Sanders is now.

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  • GroveDiesel changed the title to ***Official Buffalo Bills Thread 2021 Version: The Quest to Sustain Success***

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