Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Dynasty Leaguers


SSOG

Recommended Posts

I think this is a cool idea in the abstract, but becomes very difficult in real practice. The problem is that nobody just has 4 random first round picks to offer in a trade. In order to get 4 firsts it is generally going to require a series of trades. You are banking on the extremely rare scenario of somebody else spending the better part of 2 or 3 offseasons in order to accumulate four first round picks in some future year and then offering them all to you in exchange for one player. Sure it could happen, but if somebody went through the trouble of accumulating four firsts, he is probably planning a strategy similar to yours. The only way he is going to decide to dump them all is if the season is over and either he knows he didn't end up with picks in the top four or it's a year like this where the draft prospects are underwhelming.

I do understand it's an unlikely scenario, but it's not impossible. My whole "how many firsts is a stud worth" question began as an actual practical exercise. In one league (a 10 teamer, no less), I had managed to accrue four 2013 firsts more through a fluke than any conscious strategy, and was engaged early in the year in negotiations with the guy who owned both Calvin and Green. They weren't truly random, but they were pretty evenly distributed- one was near-certain to be very late, and another was near-certain to be early, and the other two were looking somewhere in between. Suddenly, the question "how many firsts is Calvin Johnson worth?" was not an academic one. I did my research, reached my conclusions, and from there I decided to take the broader principle (what is the value of a random first? How many firsts are various classes of players worth?) and post about it on the forums. While I doubt many people will find themselves in a position to trade four firsts for Calvin, I'd like to hope that some of this discussion will be valuable at some point or another to a broader range of owners. As for the trade in question, it got bogged down in the particulars and never went anywhere. We were discussing Calvin's value (he pegged it at all four firsts and a second, I was discussing more all four firsts and he sends a second back with Calvin), as well as possible player substitutions (he wanted Cobb, who I believed was worth two firsts, but he only had him pegged at one first). In most of my leagues, any blockbuster trade talks usually boil down to rosterbation, doomed to fall apart in the little details as both parties start feeling gun shy. I wound up breaking down the firsts and selling them off piecemeal, as smaller pieces of currency to add to my side in deals for Harvin, Peterson, and some 2014 firsts. That wound up being a far more profitable course of action for me, anyway. Of course, now I find myself holding four 2014 firsts and facing the same scenario with the Richardson owner asking around. So, again, it's not completely impossible.
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this is a cool idea in the abstract, but becomes very difficult in real practice. The problem is that nobody just has 4 random first round picks to offer in a trade. In order to get 4 firsts it is generally going to require a series of trades. You are banking on the extremely rare scenario of somebody else spending the better part of 2 or 3 offseasons in order to accumulate four first round picks in some future year and then offering them all to you in exchange for one player. Sure it could happen, but if somebody went through the trouble of accumulating four firsts, he is probably planning a strategy similar to yours. The only way he is going to decide to dump them all is if the season is over and either he knows he didn't end up with picks in the top four or it's a year like this where the draft prospects are underwhelming.

It is rare, but perhaps more common in starting leagues. Ten years ago i had acquired four firsts and traded them for tomlinson. That deal set me up for years.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...