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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA - 9.6.21 Workout For Baltimore (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I suspect the Steelers wouldn’t mind having the depth at RB. You don’t recall recent playoff history when Bell (and Deangelo) was injured for the playoffs? It would be nice to not have that problem if the Steelers are fortunate enough to make the playoffs.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Not the Steelers style. They have class. They would bury him on the depth chart first.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
He is already eligible for Free agency next year, everyone whose contract expires is. He also already has 4 Accrued Seasons ("Vested Veteran") so another one doesn't do anything for him toward that - Accrused Seasons now only really affect pension and health care status. As a result, the games on the exempt roster are irrelevant (except for the getting paid part). All he has to do is meet the deadline to sign the tender:
Section 15. Signing Period for Franchise Players:
(a) In the event that a player who is designated and tendered as a Franchise Player has not signed a Player Contract with a Club by the Tuesday following the tenth week of the regular season, at 4:00pm New York time, the player shall be prohibited from playing football in the NFL for the remainder of that League Year.
As long as he signs by November 13th he's fine for next year. What's at stake now is if he doesn't sign by then. There's a LOT of speculation about what would happen if he doesn't, as there's ambiguous language later on in the CBA.
bryhamm
Footballguy
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I think he plays this season and is even more of a slot receiver than in the past. Imagine AB, juju, Bell, Connor, and McDonald out there at the same time.
Jed
Footballguy
Why not rescind the tag instead of doing that? Then they wouldn't have to pay him 900k a game to do nothing.
creepythinman
Footballguy
Jed
Footballguy
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
Hankmoody
Footballguy
thecardiackid
Footballguy
It's kinda hard to look for sympathy from the masses re: wages when you're a 1%'er (much less your teammates). Dude made his bed, and Conner is bangin his GF in it. Rooneys are going to make a point. And they should.
Bad advise from his "council" imo.
And, I'd be remiss if I didn't add that it's just a little nice to watch some controlled chaos in steelerland. Welcome. Should be interesting Sunday, for all of us.
Bad advise from his "council" imo.
And, I'd be remiss if I didn't add that it's just a little nice to watch some controlled chaos in steelerland. Welcome. Should be interesting Sunday, for all of us.
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msommer
Footballguy
2020. They don't get it until the year after the FA leaves. This in order to have a full off season of signings to put into the formula (if they (the Steelers) splash out on someone else they may not get any pick at all - and it is also depending on the contract Bell eventually signs)
rockaction
Footballguy
I think I remember Bell hobbling around New England, watching as the real Evil Empire (it's not the Yankees) put an end to the Steelers season.
matuski
Footballguy
We won't know if it was bad advice until we see what happens in FA.
If he gets his guaranteed money - mission accomplished for him. If he doesn't, it will look like a mistake.
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Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
IMO He isn't going to get it. No way. Not with his track record for suspensions and holding out. His best play was to play and stay healthy. To be the good soldier. To show that he COULD be that. He screwed up IMO. Too many good receiving backs coming out of college.
matuski
Footballguy
Yep we have run around this track ad naseum.
I think the "play" and "stay healthy" are contradictions.
If Sammy Watkins can get 30m/48m total guaranteed I have to think he can get at least that. Only takes one team.
BUT - All that is left is to wait and see.
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Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Despite the reported $45M guarantee, what Gurley really got was a hair under $22M fully guaranteed at signing with an additional $23M in rolling guarantees. Bell's main issue with the Steelers' offer(s) was that he doesn't like rolling guarantees. Gurley was 23 with no injury issues since college and no reported character flaws or suspensions.
Bell will be 27 with 2 previous suspensions for drugs and he's missed 1/2 of one season as well as two season-ending playoff games with knees injuries, and he was publicly turned on by teammates which never happens. Bell already reportedly turned down a deal with $20M fully guaranteed in year one. How much more than that do you think he'll get?
Whatever he gets, he gets. But he's already starting the process with around $7M or $8M less, and he'll be hard-pressed to make up for what he's already left on the table this year,
matuski
Footballguy
This ignores his main concern and the only thing getting him to the next contract. His health.
I'll step over that $10 bill to pick up a $20. Wouldn't you?
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
No. I wouldn't step over a $10 bill now plus a $5 offer for year two to hopefully get a $20 bill a year from now.
I'd step over a $10 bill now to get a $50 bill or a $100 bill later, but he's not going to get a ton more than the $20M fully guaranteed that the Steelers offered him. And it's not like he was going to be unpaid in future years either lol.
Like I said, people love to call out the $45M "guarantee" in Gurley's offer, but it was only $22M fully guaranteed for year 1. My bet is that Gurley's contract would be the TARGET for him, not the baseline, because he's neither as young or as reliable as Gurley.
If someone thinks Bell is going to get some kind of contract with a $30M or $40M full guarantee, we'll just disagree and see what happens.
matuski
Footballguy
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Again, simple question.... what kind of fully guaranteed money do you think Bell gets next year? Include bonuses, salary, whatever. Do you think his full guarantee next year will blow away what the Steelers reportedly offered him this year and what Gurley signed for last year?
In your analogy, I think Bell stepped over a $10 bill this year because he thinks he's worth $20, and he's going to be hard pressed to find anyone willing to give him that same $10 bill next year, much less a $20 bill. He's said all along that he wants to be paid like a top RB AND a top WR.
As a reminder...
Todd Gurley signed a four year, $57.5 million contract extension with the Rams on July 25, 2018. Details of the contract come from a report from Mike Florio of PFT. Gurley received $45 million in guarantees, $21.95 million of which is guaranteed at signing, including a $21 million signing bonus. On the 3rd day of the 2019 league year his base salary and 2020 3rd day of the league year roster bonus which total $12.55 million will become fully guaranteed. On the 3rd day of the 2020 league year the final $10.5 million in injury guarantees becomes fully guaranteed. This includes Gurley's 2021 3rd day of the league year roster bonus. On the 3rd day of the 2021 and 2022 league years Gurley will earn a non guaranteed $1 million roster bonus. Those same years Gurley will earn a $4 million reporting bonus. There are also $2.5 million in escalators that can increase the total contract value to $60 million if earned. Gurley's cap figure in 2018 increased by $2.8 million and his 2019 cap figure decreased by $430,000.
Pittsburgh reportedly were offering Bell a $10 million signing bonus and ALSO a $10 million roster bonus in 2018, according to Florio. When added to the minimum base salary they could have paid him as per league rules, Bell would have been guaranteed $20.79 million in year one alone. A suggested cash flow of $47 million over the first three years of the deal sounds credible, given that would equate to around $13 million in 2019 and 2020 and likely made up of roster bonuses and a large base salary as the Steelers have done with other star players on the roster
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Oooohhhh, more discussion of what the Steelers may or may not have offered Bell. Something we will never know. Glad I popped back into this thread. ? 
matuski
Footballguy
I think you have brought up these unsubstantiated "reports" on the Steelers offer multiple times.
It is moot at this point anyhow.
He made his decision, the Steelers made theirs. Bell will make his 6,7,8 mill whatever this year and see what lies ahead in FA.
steelers1080
Footballguy
To summarize:
- Bell still hasn't shown up
- No one knows what the Steelers' contract offer was
- No one knows what offers he'll get next year
- No one knows when he will show up, or if he will
- No one knows how he will be used when he returns
- No one knows if he will be exempt for 2 weeks or start right away
- People are still really opinionated about it, but have very few facts to work with
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Agreed. And I haven't ever faulted Bell or the Steelers for the decisions they've made. It's business, and Bell made the calculation that whatever he walked away from this year will be worth it in the long run. Time will tell.
But you didn't answer my question, and to answer that it's not even important what the Steelers did or didn't offer. Nevermind that.
Simple question - Given what Gurley DID get and what we know of Bell's history compared to Gurley's history, do you expect Bell to see a contract with more than $22M fully guaranteed like Gurley got? Yes or no?
Bell has already out before saying that he doesn't like rolling guarantees because it's like playing on a year to year contract and the team can cut him to save money if they want to. That was his problem with the Steelers offer back in 2017, too.
Doug B
Footballguy
Something to mull: what's Bell's "break-even" point in guaranteed money on his next deal? Gurley's Year One guarantees ($22 M) + 10 games worth of lost 2018 paychecks at the franchise-player salary (~8.75 M?)? So does Bell have to get around $31 M in Year One guarantees on his next contract to have made the 2018 holdout worthwhile?Steelers4Life said:
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Not exactly. If he had suffered a major injury, or if the Steelers piled on another 400 touches in 2018, he might not get near that much guaranteed next year. The problem is, he's not magically going to be able to play another year in his 30's because he skipped a year (or most of a year) at 27. So he opted out of a prime earning year and he doesn't have many of those left. Probably 5 tops. So yeah, no matter what, I feel like the guy is going to end up leaving money on the table when his career ends.
Doug B
Footballguy
For the sake of analysis ... you can put a price on the bolded. Hypothetically (if not realistically), there is a first-year guarantee dollar amount that makes the 2018 holdout worth it. If it's not $31 million, it could be higher. Where would you put the it-was-worth-it amount yourself, speaking hypothetically? More like $37 M to 40 M (Gurley's first-year guarantees + the entire 2018 franchise tag salary recouped + a little more)?
Why do people keep saying this? He's not "leaving money on the table" by not fully playing this year. Playing induces a risk that could reduce future earnings if he gets hurt. It's a calculated risk to not play this year to preserve more guaranteed money in the future. You guys act like he would 100% get the money this year AND a big contract.
Not playing this year is like a reverse insurance policy.
We don't say that we "lost" $1,000 last year because our homeowner's policy didn't pay out. We paid a risk premium IN CASE something would have happened.
Bell is essentially not getting paid to not take the risk. It's a calculated move that certainly has potential payouts. Not realizing those negative payoffs is the cost of not playing this year. We can't fully say it's costing him $8M because we don't know the odds of him getting hurt vs how that would affect his future income.
I'm inclined to believe his lost value is not $8M but we don't know that for certain. We do know it is millions less than that because running backs get hurt every year. The first-round bust rate alone is at least 25%. And wear and tear could be worth millions more.
He might only be giving up an "expected value" of a few million... which is pretty low to secure a potentially $40M+ guaranteed contract like Gurley received.
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apalmer
Footballguy
For that analogy to work, we'd have to pay $80,000 to insure a $400,000 home.
ETA: and that's assuming he believes he's getting $40 million guaranteed. If he's looking at getting a Gurley-like $22 million guarantee, it's like paying $80,000 to insure a $220,000 house. If it isn't leaving a lot of money on the table, it's certainly wasting it.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Keep in mind that Gurley's deal 'only' included ~$22 M in first-year guaranteed money. See Steeler4Life's post above from this morning.
What are the odds of your house burning down? <1%
What are the odds of the top-5 running backs retaining their value year after year? 70%, maybe? The odds you would need to lay thereby increase dramatically.
David Johnson is healthy but his team sucks so his perceived value is smaller now than it was two months ago. Dalvin Cook and Fournette are hurt. AP went from a top tier RB to barely touchable after belting his son. Jamaal Charles never regained his explosiveness after tearing an ACL. It happens to the top guys every single year (and it's not always just injury related). It's pretty evident that a 30% chance of a severe drop in value is very reasonable.
Giving up $8M to ensure an additional $22M seems fairly reasonable to me given historical changes in value for top tier running backs.
I think his decision to sit out is a lot closer financially / expected value than most people are realizing.
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apalmer
Footballguy
Except that he isn't ensuring "an additional $22M". The only thing he's ensuring is that whatever he signs for is worth $8M less in his pocket than it could have been. If he gets $22M, and he had to give up $8M to get it, his net is $14M, which is less than what he'd have been guaranteed to be paid this year under the tag. So, all he's done is postpone his $14M year from 2018 to 2019 and cut one future year's paycheck out.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Bingo... and all of this is assuming that the reports that the Steelers did in fact offer him $20M guaranteed are false. Because if that's the case, he postponed a lot more than that. Fact is, the report makes a lot of sense because it never made any sense that the Steelers would offer him less guaranteed money than he was already able to make under the tag.
Financially, I see little to no chance that Bell gets a contract like Gurley got, and I see little to no chance that he ends up ahead financially after all of this. But stranger things have happened. I can definitely see him getting over $20M in TOTAL guarantees, but I can't see him getting even that much in FIRST YEAR guarantees when Gurley didn't.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I think the one point that everyone is missing in this analogy is that the $10 bill has glass and razor blades all around it and if he cuts his hand while picking it up, he won't be able to pick up the $20.Steelers4Life said:
I love a good analogy!
apalmer
Footballguy
And, if he steps over it, it's possible that the breeze he causes will blow the $20 down the storm sewer drain and he won't be able to get it, either.
Analogies are fun!
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I posted a long and detailed per carry comparison in the Steelers thread (2017?) between Bell and all other backs who received carries for the Steelers since Bell joined the team. Without delving into the minutiae again, the conclusion drawn was that Bell was not nearly as huge an upgrade over replacement level as he would appear to be.
The counter argument provided was that the raw stats didn't tell the story and that the offense as a whole would suffer Bell's absence due to opposing teams not needing to scheme for Bell. 6 games isn't a huge sample size, but that hasn't proven to be remotely true thus far.
Bottom line is that 7 weeks ago, I was cursing his name under my breath for letting the team down. Now, I frankly don't care much whether he reports or not. I'd honestly rather move forward with Conner and use the Bell money to improve the defense. The only problem with that is finding someone who CAN appreciably improve the defense to give that money to without dumping a bunch of premium draft picks in the process. I'm not convinced it can be done at this point.
The counter argument provided was that the raw stats didn't tell the story and that the offense as a whole would suffer Bell's absence due to opposing teams not needing to scheme for Bell. 6 games isn't a huge sample size, but that hasn't proven to be remotely true thus far.
Bottom line is that 7 weeks ago, I was cursing his name under my breath for letting the team down. Now, I frankly don't care much whether he reports or not. I'd honestly rather move forward with Conner and use the Bell money to improve the defense. The only problem with that is finding someone who CAN appreciably improve the defense to give that money to without dumping a bunch of premium draft picks in the process. I'm not convinced it can be done at this point.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Yes it would be dumb
GROOT
Footballguy
Let's say he comes back in some capacity, is he putting up starter numbers? I don't think so.
shoecrew22
Footballguy
Yes he is. Pitt can easily support Conner bell as NO supports Ingram/Kamara.
Both will be startable at the very least in flex.
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