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Here is a thought - what if Pittsburgh decides to torpedo Bell?  Lets say he isn't close to football shape - so 4 weeks of conditioning before any serious PT.  What does Pittsburgh do with him then going into next year?  They can still transition tag him.  Now he is going to get paid even less next year.  What does he do? 

Sit out again? 

What happens to L Bell's value if he comes out of Pittsburg in a year and a half after only playing 4-6 games in roughly 3+ years?

Edited by Hairy Snowman
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No skin in this game (not a Steelers fan, barely own Bell/Conner anywhere).... I have no problem whatsoever with what he did.  I'm glad he did it.  He didn't "holdout".  He wasn't under contract.

Oh yeah. Now I remember why I avoided this thread for ONE HUNDRED FIFTY EIGHT pages.

DeAngelo Williams 2015 7 games as starter: 876YFS / 27rec / 8TDs James Conner in 3 games this year: 342YFS / 15rec / 3TD Of course Bell is a better back than DW or JC is.  But, ignoring

8 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Here is a thought - what if Pittsburgh decides to torpedo Bell?  Lets say he isn't close to football shape - so 4 weeks of conditioning before any serious PT.  What does Pittsburgh do with him then going into next year?  They can still transition tag him.  Now he is going to get paid even less next year.  What does he do? 

Sit out again? 

What happens to L Bell's value if he comes out of Pittsburg in a year and a half after only playing 4-6 games in roughly 3+ years?

What will he be at that point, 27? Even he isn’t dumb enough to punt another year in his earning prime.

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21 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

Here is a thought - what if Pittsburgh decides to torpedo Bell?  Lets say he isn't close to football shape - so 4 weeks of conditioning before any serious PT.  What does Pittsburgh do with him then going into next year?  They can still transition tag him.  Now he is going to get paid even less next year.  What does he do? 

Sit out again? 

What happens to L Bell's value if he comes out of Pittsburg in a year and a half after only playing 4-6 games in roughly 3+ years?

If they transition tag him he can negotiate a contract with whoever he wants.  Steelers would have to match.   He's already said he bought loss of value insurance, so if he doesn't get paid as he would have been expected before the holdout, he cashes in on the insurance policy.

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2 hours ago, jon007 said:

It's been interesting following this thread.

Conner already has 189 touches in 2018.

That's 378 for the season for those who's counting.

Bell in 2017 had 406 touches.

 

Yes if Bell comes back he will play.

Even a 50/50 split would be worth starting both backs as a flex.

Why would he play?   

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He's coming back to get the season counted. If he's in shape he'll play. If he does well he'll play more.

Steelers OC has all kinds of plans in the works I'm sure to get them both on the field but the awesome free ride with Conner is coming to an end IMO. Not like Conner's going to be droppable or anything but like going from flying private jet to exit row commercial.

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38 minutes ago, FGITLOTR said:

If he doesn't need to come in by week 10 to accrue a season, as this article says, he's not coming in. See ya in 2019.

He's played 4 seasons. He doesn't need to accrue jack ####.

https://operations.nfl.com/updates/football-ops/2018-nfl-free-agency-faq/

Unrestricted free agents have completed four or more accrued seasons. Upon expiration of his 2017 contract, an unrestricted free agent can sign with any club with no draft choice compensation owed to his old club.

Edited by lod001
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I think you're missing the point. Another accrued year means nothing to him. It comes down to whether he wants any money for this year or not. 

And any money he DOESN'T collect this year under the tag will be additional money the Steelers will be able to utilize next year.

He reached free agency last year, the Steelers tagged him. The question will be if he signs the tender or not, because if he doesn't, the Steelers will be able to Franchise Tag him again next year at the same $14.5M, because it'll be like this year never happened and he'd still be on the second tag, not the ridiculously expensive third one. That would be a far more effective tag to use than the transition tag.

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5 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

I think you're missing the point. Another accrued year means nothing to him. It comes down to whether he wants any money for this year or not. 

And any money he DOESN'T collect this year under the tag will be additional money the Steelers will be able to utilize next year.

He reached free agency last year, the Steelers tagged him. The question will be if he signs the tender or not, because if he doesn't, the Steelers will be able to Franchise Tag him again next year at the same $14.5M, because it'll be like this year never happened and he'd still be on the second tag, not the ridiculously expensive third one. That would be a far more effective tag to use than the transition tag.

That's the only reason he would come in. Supposedly no contact between them. take that with a grain of salt. The wink wink deal could be on.

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1 minute ago, lod001 said:

That's the only reason he would come in. Supposedly no contact between them. take that with a grain of salt. The wink wink deal could be on.

The Steelers would have no incentive to make that guarantee. None. Just to get him to stay away? 

If the Steelers are able to franchise tag him at $14.5 again next year, do it, and trade him to a team willing to pay him, they'll get plenty more than the 3rd round compensatory pick they might get otherwise, and they'd get nothing if he left under the transition tag. That story makes no sense. 

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The league I drafted Bell...we have a 3 week reserve move (it does renew and limited in our other add/drops).  I’ve used the 3 week reserve for Conner.  I guess I’ll renew it another 3 weeks and see. 

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1 hour ago, The General said:

He's coming back to get the season counted. If he's in shape he'll play. If he does well he'll play more.

Steelers OC has all kinds of plans in the works I'm sure to get them both on the field but the awesome free ride with Conner is coming to an end IMO. Not like Conner's going to be droppable or anything but like going from flying private jet to exit row commercial.

Why would he refuse to play for $14.5 mil but play for $5 mil?  That makes no sense.

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5 minutes ago, -fish- said:

Why would he refuse to play for $14.5 mil but play for $5 mil?  That makes no sense.

if he doesn't come back he doesnt accrue a season, so he has another year on the Steelers with the franchise tag. 

He has to come back this week to play out the 1 year deal and then go elsewhere

Unless I'm missing something but that's my understanding. If I'm wrong then he wont play at all and hit FA next year if that's how it goes 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

if he doesn't come back he doesnt accrue a season, so he has another year on the Steelers with the franchise tag. 

He has to come back this week to play out the 1 year deal and then go elsewhere

He doesn’t need an accrued season.  The only difference is whether he gets franchise tagged again at $14.5 mil or for something like $22 mil.  He won’t play for $14.5 mil, so tagging him again at $14.5 just means that the Steelers have an opportunity to trade him again next year if he doesn’t do the same thing.  

He refused to play for 14.5 because of the risk of injury.  Why would he now risk injury for 5?  Seems like a guy with no training camp, pre-season or game conditioning would be at a greater risk of injury, if anything.  

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Just now, -fish- said:

He doesn’t need an accrued season.  The only difference is whether he gets franchise tagged again at $14.5 mil or for something like $22 mil.  He won’t play for $14.5 mil, so tagging him again at $14.5 just means that the Steelers have an opportunity to trade him again next year if he doesn’t do the same thing.  

He refused to play for 14.5 because of the risk of injury.  Why would he now risk injury for 5?  Seems like a guy with no training camp, pre-season or game conditioning would be at a greater risk of injury, if anything.  

right. that makes sense. I addended my comment because I figured I was missing something. 

 

You're right, why play now if he was worried about injury before? if he gets seriously hurt now it's worse for him than if he were to get hurt week 1, and hed be out 9.5 million from weeks missed. 

He has zero incentive to come back 

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1 minute ago, Synthesizer said:

Neither of those options guarantees him any money after this season.  But the $5 million option gives him a better chance of making it through this season healthy, and then collecting a bigger long term contact.

Not playing means he makes it through this season healthy.  I think any chance of him reporting ended when Earl Thomas got carted off the field.

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3 minutes ago, Synthesizer said:

I know there is a lot of conflicting info coming out right now, but he can sign the same long term contact after this season whether or not he reports at all?

If he doesn’t report and they franchise tag him again, they’d have til mid July to work out a long term contract or end up here again

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7 minutes ago, -fish- said:

He doesn’t need an accrued season.  The only difference is whether he gets franchise tagged again at $14.5 mil or for something like $22 mil.  He won’t play for $14.5 mil, so tagging him again at $14.5 just means that the Steelers have an opportunity to trade him again next year if he doesn’t do the same thing.  

He refused to play for 14.5 because of the risk of injury.  Why would he now risk injury for 5?  Seems like a guy with no training camp, pre-season or game conditioning would be at a greater risk of injury, if anything.  

I guess I don't know this as well as I thought. He needs the games this year to be able to get free agent no? He shows up at last minute, gets back on the field dodging a couple hundred touches, and then signs wherever next year.

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1 minute ago, The General said:

I guess I don't know this as well as I thought. He needs the games this year to be able to get free agent no? He shows up at last minute, gets back on the field dodging a couple hundred touches, and then signs wherever next year.

No.  He’s accrued the years to be a free agent.  Reporting by Nov. 13 just means it costs more for the Steelers to tag him again next year.

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1 minute ago, -fish- said:

No.  He’s accrued the years to be a free agent.  Reporting by Nov. 13 just means it costs more for the Steelers to tag him again next year.

He's able to sign freely anywhere though if he gets 6 games in this year though, right? If he doesn't the Steelers still have control with these various "tags" they can put on him. That correct?

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1 minute ago, The General said:

He's able to sign freely anywhere though if he gets 6 games in this year though, right? If he doesn't the Steelers still have control with these various "tags" they can put on him. That correct?

I think they can tag him regardless. Either franchise tag - very expensive, or Transition Tag = match offers, and tag is much lower. 

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1 minute ago, The General said:

He's able to sign freely anywhere though if he gets 6 games in this year though, right? If he doesn't the Steelers still have control with these various "tags" they can put on him. That correct?

They can tag him regardless.  The only variable is how much is costs them.  If it's at the QB rate they won't tag him, but if it's at the $14.4M they probably will.

There's also the transition tag, which is far cheaper but PIT gets no compensation if they don't match whatever offer he accepts, if any.

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2 minutes ago, The General said:

He's able to sign freely anywhere though if he gets 6 games in this year though, right? If he doesn't the Steelers still have control with these various "tags" they can put on him. That correct?

No.  They can tag him again next year if he reports, but it will be at somewhere around $22-23 mil instead of 14.5

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I put the chances of Pittsburgh tagging him again at around 5%. Why would they want to pay him that money when they found someone every bit as good? Who plays for pennies. Bell misplayed his hand terribly. And his stock plummets every single week. Connor is just as good and much more likeable. Also, not a druggie and not injury-prone.

Edited by JuniorNB
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10 hours ago, -fish- said:

He doesn’t need an accrued season.  The only difference is whether he gets franchise tagged again at $14.5 mil or for something like $22 mil.  He won’t play for $14.5 mil, so tagging him again at $14.5 just means that the Steelers have an opportunity to trade him again next year if he doesn’t do the same thing.  

He refused to play for 14.5 because of the risk of injury.  Why would he now risk injury for 5?  Seems like a guy with no training camp, pre-season or game conditioning would be at a greater risk of injury, if anything.  

Yep.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

they're actually gonna take him back and pay him tag money? :lol:

i just don't get it. 

Well the Steelers would look pretty dumb if they rescind the offer and Conner gets hurt next week.   The Steelers are a better team with an out of shape Bell than they are with Ridley/Samuels.

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1 hour ago, Soulfly3 said:

they're actually gonna take him back and pay him tag money? :lol:

i just don't get it. 

What price would you pay to try an win a Super Bowl?

All hands on deck with an aging QB. Once Ben is gone then you can pack it in and stash your cash.

If Bell returns, he'll step onto the field under a chorus of boo's... then break off a long run and hear the cheers.

Remember what Jerry Seinfeld taught us about sports, "Ultimately, we are all rooting for laundry. We want our uniforms to beat the other uniforms."

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Sorry, the the "If he doesn't want to play for $14.5 million, why would he want to play for $5 million?" statements are silly.  The huge difference is the amount of touches he would have gotten under each.  For 14.5mm, he would have gotten around 400 touches ... which is EXACTLY what he doesn't want.  For $5mm and with Conner playing so well, he gets significantly less touches.

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17 minutes ago, bryhamm said:

Sorry, the the "If he doesn't want to play for $14.5 million, why would he want to play for $5 million?" statements are silly.  The huge difference is the amount of touches he would have gotten under each.  For 14.5mm, he would have gotten around 400 touches ... which is EXACTLY what he doesn't want.  For $5mm and with Conner playing so well, he gets significantly less touches.

Of course but it only takes one snap to blow out a knee.   By not signing a long-term deal either last year or this year Bell is taking a huge risk even stepping on the field.  If he is really concerned for his next year's contract he would be better off staying in Miami for the test of the season.

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

I would get a RB that will actually play in the playoffs.

Can't get any fresher legs than Lev Bell.

Whiners will be whiners, but if he walks through that door within the next week it would be in everyone's best interest to get him game ready ASAP.

Steelers fans realize this, because there's only one goal in Pittsburgh. Fans of also-ran's may not be able to keep personal feelings out of it.

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Yup I want Bell back because he gives this team a greater probability to win a Super Bowl.  However, I think everybody (other than Bell fantasy owners) want him firmly planted as the backup to Conner.  Hell im sure even Bell wants that.

ETA - or just spread him out and use him as a receiver.

Edited by fred_1_15301
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6 hours ago, JuniorNB said:

I put the chances of Pittsburgh tagging him again at around 5%. Why would they want to pay him that money when they found someone every bit as good? Who plays for pennies. Bell misplayed his hand terribly. And his stock plummets every single week. Connor is just as good and much more likeable. Also, not a druggie and not injury-prone.

These two don't make sense together.  His goal was to get a long term deal.  If you are right with your first point that means he is free to go get that deal.  So his strategy worked.  Yes, he did misplay it if Pittsburgh is able to tag him next year but you are saying they won't.

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there will be an unofficial unwritten agreement....

he comes back but he doesn't play....basically "you can activate/dress me if you want but I wouldn't play me"....he ain't gonna try to break any tackles or get you that extra yard or keep those legs churning while being held up in a pile....

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Conner is trending for close to 400 touches at his current pace. With a few playoff games, he could hit 450+ over the course of the extended season.

Just think of the chaos there would be if Bell doesn't sign and is forced to miss the entire season and Conner gets seriously hurt and has to miss a full year. The end of this season could be a mess, as would the start of next year.

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1 hour ago, skinsrule05 said:

These two don't make sense together.  His goal was to get a long term deal.  If you are right with your first point that means he is free to go get that deal.  So his strategy worked.  Yes, he did misplay it if Pittsburgh is able to tag him next year but you are saying they won't.

He lost 14.5 million by not playing.  Money he will never get back. By sitting out and letting the league see that Connor actually outproduces Bell (along with the fact that the Steelers never skipped a beat when DeAngelo Williams played, either), his value plummeted. With RB injury rates being what they are, and the fact that every draft seems to produce several 'studs', I just don't see a team paying Bell big bucks.  I'm sure he'll be signed and I'm sure it won't be for peanuts, but he was much more valuable three months ago than he is now.  That's how he misplayed his hand.

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