Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
RB Le'Veon Bell, FA - 9.6.21 Workout For Baltimore (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
matuski
Footballguy
No.
To maximize guaranteed pay.
And back to square 1.
Best case - play get franchise salary, stay healthy get big contract.
Worst case - play get hurt get no big contract.
Safe bet - dont play, stay healthy (unless ghostguy pushes him down a set of stairs), miss franchise pay but get big contract.
No and anyone who thinks the only goal is guarantee money has no idea and has simply fallen prey to a false narrative.
matuski
Footballguy
Clearly it is. It’s kind of like how driving the speed limit to your grocery store is on par with racing in demolition derbies, every weekend, where you get slammed into by other vehicles 25 times each race.
The guy driving to the grocery store is just as likely to get hurt as the demolition derby driver.
Right?
No it's not. Contracts are more complex and not so simple as "just the guarantee" that everyone is running with. It's not just the guarantee, it's not the just the total pay, it's just not as simple as any one thing.
If avoiding worst case was his goal he'd have taken the Steelers long term offer. Was not his goal. Total money, with guarantees being part of but not all of the equation was his goal.
matuski
Footballguy
Splitting hairs.
He made his choice, he succeeded - even if not to the degree he hoped.
Last edited by a moderator:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can’t wait to see who is the first person to change some one’s mind about whether or not sitting out last season was a mistake.
Interesting article at The Ringer, explaining how long NFL player contracts have actually lasted:
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/3/15/18266458/free-agent-contracts-guaranteed-money-how-long-do-deals-last
For 5 year deals, 14.7% of them only last 1 year. Another 26.3% of them only last 2 years. Which mean there's a 59% chance of getting cut after Year 2.
So plugging in what the Steelers offered Leveon (according to some guy -- the first commenter in this Deadspin link -- who took a stab at reconciling all the reported contract numbers):
Year 1: 14.7% chance of getting only $17M
Year 2: 26.3% chance of getting additional $16M.
https://deadspin.com/leveon-bells-jets-deal-is-a-good-reminder-guarantees-a-1833262186
>
"Piecing together all reports I’ve seen on the Steelers offer last summer, I believe Leveon would have received:
2018: 10M signing bonus, 7M base salary (17M practically guaranteed) as a vested veteran with the ability to claim his full salary if cut after week 1. The only way to only see 10M on this offer is to get released less than a month after signing the deal.
2019: 3.5M roster bonus due this week. 12.5 base salary. 16M total for 2019, 20.5 in first 9 months (lacanfora), 33M in first 2 years (rapaport).
2020: 12M base salary. 45M in first 3 years.
2021 & 2022: 25M owed over final two years."
>
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/3/15/18266458/free-agent-contracts-guaranteed-money-how-long-do-deals-last
For 5 year deals, 14.7% of them only last 1 year. Another 26.3% of them only last 2 years. Which mean there's a 59% chance of getting cut after Year 2.
So plugging in what the Steelers offered Leveon (according to some guy -- the first commenter in this Deadspin link -- who took a stab at reconciling all the reported contract numbers):
Year 1: 14.7% chance of getting only $17M
Year 2: 26.3% chance of getting additional $16M.
https://deadspin.com/leveon-bells-jets-deal-is-a-good-reminder-guarantees-a-1833262186
>
"Piecing together all reports I’ve seen on the Steelers offer last summer, I believe Leveon would have received:
2018: 10M signing bonus, 7M base salary (17M practically guaranteed) as a vested veteran with the ability to claim his full salary if cut after week 1. The only way to only see 10M on this offer is to get released less than a month after signing the deal.
2019: 3.5M roster bonus due this week. 12.5 base salary. 16M total for 2019, 20.5 in first 9 months (lacanfora), 33M in first 2 years (rapaport).
2020: 12M base salary. 45M in first 3 years.
2021 & 2022: 25M owed over final two years."
>
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
It’s just hard to believe how some people so easily dismiss the potential consequences of getting hurt while playing under the franchise tag.
I read last week the Steelers have historically paid out 90% of total salary on second contracts.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I do. There is no question he got plenty of receptions from called plays. He is a great receiver. And I don't want to guess percentages either, but I think the dump offs are pretty high. Ben is very disciplined about it and extends an awful lot of plays (and drives) by dumping to Bell, and Conner last year. On the other hand I would actually think of these dump offs as a "scripted" play in the sense that the RB is supposed to become available for the dumpoff. But it takes a QB that can get it done. I've seen many that can't. I actually think Rodgers and Wilson aren't so good at it. I'm just wondering if itis in Arnold's skill set, as far as we can tell at this point. I think it represented a bigger piece of the pie of Bell's production than maybe we realize. But admittedly, this is just my perception and I have no numbers to back it up.
Or I am grasping at something that isn't there. As a Bears fan, I feel like I am acutely aware of the nuances of how a QB can be ####ty. Not being able to drop it off to open RBs that can catch and run is one of those traits. I have no idea if it is for Arnold or not. Guess it is too early to really know.
JaxBill
Footballguy
@Stinkin Ref if only somebody had posted a statistical look at chances if injury for a highly used RB.
Year Steelers' offer Franchise tag Current deal
2018 $19.5 million $14.544 million $0
2019 $13.5 million $14.5 million $14.5 million
2020 $12 million $11.5 million $11.5 million
Total $45 million $40.544 million $26 million
http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/breaking-down-leveon-bell-new-jets-contract-was-the-holdout-worth-it/n6h5h1p8tzno16wlr0lfnwxn8
2018 $19.5 million $14.544 million $0
2019 $13.5 million $14.5 million $14.5 million
2020 $12 million $11.5 million $11.5 million
Total $45 million $40.544 million $26 million
http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/breaking-down-leveon-bell-new-jets-contract-was-the-holdout-worth-it/n6h5h1p8tzno16wlr0lfnwxn8
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
That 538 article calculates injury rate based on RBs with draft ADP of 24 or higher. But Bell's usage makes him a higher injury risk than that.
"Binney took average draft position (ADP) data from 2007 to 2015 and used Football Outsider’s proprietary injury database to calculate the serious injury rate for running backs with a preseason positional ADP of 24 or greater. He estimates that the true likelihood of serious injury is between 20.9 and 32.8 percent for NFL running backs over a season."
"In both scenarios, there is a possibility that the injury rate we’ve calculated is underestimating the true danger to Bell’s health and future earnings. After all, Bell’s workload is extreme: He led the NFL with 406 touches last season."
Right, but Sporting News doesn't factor in injury risk/getting cut.
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/3/15/18266458/free-agent-contracts-guaranteed-money-how-long-do-deals-last
For 5 year deals, 14.7% of them only last 1 year. Another 26.3% of them only last 2 years. Which mean there's a 59% chance of getting cut after Year 2.
Steelers contract offer:
Year 1: 14.7% chance of getting only $17M (or $19.5M to use the numbers from Sporting News vs. Deadspin)
Year 2: 26.3% chance of getting additional $16M (or 13.5M for Sporting News)
Jet offer:
$25M fully guaranteed at signing.
I guess which is better depends on how risk-adverse people are...
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Seriously. This thread blows. Who cares about the money. I care how people value him now.
Gandalf
Footballguy
It’s just bitter people. Either steeler fans or those who drafted Bell with their first rounder last year (I was one of them fyi) and these folks just can’t seem to move forward yet. They need to process it some more or prove to the world that’s bell made a mistake, which they probably think will make them feel better. But it won’t. Bell toasted us last year and proving that he’s an idiot won’t change it. Gotta move forward people. It’s a new year...
Last edited by a moderator:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I don't fall in either of these camps, actually opposite - I owned Conner in two leagues last year, I LOVED what he did.
Overall, I think the Jets could end up being the winners here, weird to string those words together in the same sentence. Bell's move was clearly stupid, and because of that, I doubt we'll see a RB sit on the tag for a very long time (if ever). I stopped arguing it when the numbers became clear - it's like arguing with someone about what is faster, a Prius or a Bugatti.
I noted earlier, I've got him as RB7 in PPR this year, but honestly, wouldn't be shocked if he was number 1 or number 20, he's a wildcard imo.
If I'm really throwing darts, I think the 2020 season he goes bonkers, basically being a contract year - I think that will be the last time we see him at the top of his game.
I'll probably avoid him, unless I'm picking like 11th or 12th and he falls that far. After taking Fournette at 7 this year, I'd rather go with higher floor lower ceiling with my first pick, so I'll avoid the unknown, although I think the odds are fairly strong those that gamble on him early will be rewarded.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I was referring specifically to people who are going psycho over how much Bell did or didn’t get paid. Who cares? Football.
I agree with your assessment of Bell. I own him in two leagues and both I am using him as my 2nd or 3rd RB which is way safe than him as your RB1. In redraft you will be paying RB1 prices or not getting him. For redraft, I would pull the trigger on Bell right around the 1st/2nd round turn I think.
Last edited by a moderator:
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
I'm ready for him to move forward and it'd be cool if his thread could, too. I don't care about his money, have Conner on my dynasty roster alongside him, and am expecting Bell to play like an angry man with a point to prove. Having Bell, Conner, and Gordon in my starting lineup this year is pretty exciting. The only thing I don't like about him being in NYJ is that the team got a whole lot better by adding Bell and Crowder, and that's not good for a NEP fan. I expect both players will make a huge impact in the short passing game that was pretty terrible last season, as mentioned in the excerpt above by @Faust.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
A). It’s the offseason. Of course people are going to stray far afield until things get more concrete and relevant.
B) Bell took a highly controversial position by not playing for a season en lieu of making a boatload of money, convinced he could reap a massive payday on the open market. By virtually any measure his ploy failed miserably.
C) It’s a classic employer vs employee scenario that some people line up pretty passionately on.
D) I haven’t seen anyone going “psycho”, and if you think any of the discussion here reaches that level, perhaps this board may be a bit much for a delicate disposition.
Gandalf
Footballguy
A) there is no off season for dynasty
B) I think everyone is well aware of Bell’s position and again why does it bother people so much that it failed? It failed. It’s his life. He’s playing now, let’s move on.
C) yup agree. Maybe we should start an NFL employment thread?
D) it felt like this thread was derailed by his contract/money talk for weeks. That’s what I meant by psycho. I’m trying to bring this thread back to useful conversation. I was trying to joke around with the use of the word psycho but if it offended you sorry. Not being sarcastic.
Last edited by a moderator:
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I’m not sure you could offend me. It takes a whole lot more than meaningless hyperbole. What did you want to restrict all discussion to be in terms of Bell right now? Hypotheticals about how he fits into an offense that we won’t see in action for a few months?
Gandalf
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Gandalf
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
irish eyes
Footballguy
steelcityman
Footballguy
Being a Steeler fan, I will miss the production, but glad he is gone, let him be New York's problem child now. I have him on a dynasty team, hoping to get a lot of receptions this year, wont be much rushing yards with that OLine. But who knows. Its good to have a guy like that back on my team(to use).
matuski
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
I know, right? What has his “formula” ever led to? It’s not like it ever resulted in a 2000 yard season........er, I mean, it’s not like it ever resulted in 3 Pro-Bowl selections.......er, I mean, it’s not like it ever resulted in 2 1st-team All-Pro selections.......er, I mean guys like Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger would never miss voluntary workouts........er, yeah it’s comical, actuallyirish eyes said:
Similar threads
