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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA - 9.6.21 Workout For Baltimore (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
High level view, CEH is the future and he will have a great mentor in Bell.
For 2020, I think Bell and CEH split carries.
In addition, Bell will have the impact carries (redzone, goaline, 2 min) along with 3rd down and pass downs due to his superior pass block and route running.
Bell = RB2 with some RB1 weeks due to KC averaging 28-35 points per week
CEH = RB3/Flex
No matter how you view it, CEH's ADP no way justifies this scenario today. Huge loss to CEH owners.
For 2020, I think Bell and CEH split carries.
In addition, Bell will have the impact carries (redzone, goaline, 2 min) along with 3rd down and pass downs due to his superior pass block and route running.
Bell = RB2 with some RB1 weeks due to KC averaging 28-35 points per week
CEH = RB3/Flex
No matter how you view it, CEH's ADP no way justifies this scenario today. Huge loss to CEH owners.
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rockaction
Footballguy
spodog
Footballguy
Meh.
This Offense is productive enough to keep CEH in the low end RB1 range and Bell in the RB2 range most weeks.
In 2016, DaVonta Freeman was a Top 5 RB and Coleman was Top 20, with ATL scoring at 33.8 points per game. I'd expect this kind of potential from this backfield.
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Where CEH has been holding RB2 value past few weeks are the receptions. Those will now go to Bell.
There isn’t a scenario where CEH will be a RB1. He hasn’t been producing that even with Darrel Williams. Now Bell will take the impact runs plus receptions. PPR gold with all world Maholmes throwing to him.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Has Bell really been any good at all the last two years? Is it ALL on the Jets?
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
I'm not saying it's impossible, but when is the last time a team with a 60/40 pass/run ratio supported two top-24 fantasy RBs?
I wouldn't put it past Reid and Bienemy to run Bell out of the slot on half the snaps - but absent that I don't see a path to that sort of joint value.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Fariq
Footballguy
I am a Jets fan and I could not tell. The offensive scheme has been pathetic. I was not seeing any noticeable drop in ability from Bell. I would not be surprised if he plays for KC like he played for Pittsburgh.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I am with ya, but to look at it another way, if an unsuspecting owner is that dumb as to agree to a trade that fast without doing a 30-second scan of the news cycle to maybe see why another owner is looking to trade a RB who went in the 1st or 2nd round in most drafts, then I am not going to feel the least bit sorry for him. That one making the offer is still a piece of work, though, that's for sure.
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6, 37, 17, 27, 26. Those are his weekly finishes. ONE RB1 week & nothing better than a RB3 since. But now, adding another RB will move him up to the low-end RB1 range?
I agreed with your earlier post but not with this. CEH is still going to catch a ton of passes and even without Bell he was leaving on a lot of third downs already because his pass blocking is not up to snuff. CEH has actually not had a touch on third down since week 3.
Mahomes two full seasons as QB.
PPR scoring, PPG for TOTAL TEAM RB production.
26.28 the year he had Hunt for 11 games. 24 last year. 18 this year but I don't like small sample sizes and no way the entire RB group was on this team was not going to score more then 3 TD pace they were on.
That 24-26.28 amount of TOTAL TEAM RB production is probably a good guide. The spare randoms won't totally go away, put them down for eating up a point or so.
I would anticipate Bell and CEH sharing the remaining 24-25 PPG. There is no RB1 on this team.
Mahomes is a great QB, Reids a great coach and the entire offense is of course great. But I'd argue a QB who likes to dump off to RB's , like a not so past his prime Rivers and Brees, are actually better for pass catching RB's then a QB like Mahomes who is able to use his legs to extend plays and arm to take downfield shots.
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Teezee
Footballguy
Burst wise, he has lost some no doubt. Wear and tear call it what you will.
But I think he's going to surprise many with how much he has left in the tank. I think his ego took a hit the last few years between the bad ending out in Pittsburgh and the incompetence with the Jets, nagging injuries and so on. But I want to believe he is somewhat motivated to let people know he can still ball, even if he is in the twilight of his prime. His ego is big enough, which is a good thing in this situation for him honestly. He still has the ability to increase his market worth with the hopes of landing one last check. GOing to KC was a business decision. His ability to absorb the scheme and learn on the run will dictate how much he plays moving forward but I think some may be overthinking this. Lev is going to eat.
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rockaction
Footballguy
You're forgetting that Jets RBs don't flash behind that O-line, really.
Look, I'm a Jets fan who has tuned out most of this year, but I can tell you what I saw last year and this. Last year, we saw a plodding and overweight Bell limp to under 4 YPC and not get involved in the passing game all while rounding out the scales at about 230 (we never knew as he was never weighed and if he was, refused to let it go public).
This year, he looks a little different with a little more spring in his step, but he's still the same tiptoeing guy that played for Pittsburgh. Whether that style works anywhere else remains to be seen and whether he's lost a step are two questions yet to be answered. We're about to find out.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
So one knock on CEH has been his pass blocking is bad. How bad? PFF has him ranked fourth-worst among ANY running back, even those with only a handful of snaps - his Pass Block grade is 17.1 (out of 100). Darrel Williams isn't much better - 21.0. Bell is slightly better, but still terrible - 33.4.
Don't know how this all adds up, but I had not been aware CEH was so bad in pass protection. If I did know I would have tried to unload him sooner.
Don't know how this all adds up, but I had not been aware CEH was so bad in pass protection. If I did know I would have tried to unload him sooner.
themeistersinger
Footballguy
I don't think the super patient style will work in KC. Their O-line was pretty average most of the season, and Osemele was their best run blocker, and now he's out for the season. Maybe Bell will listen to the coaches more here and just hit the hole, but if he doesn't, he won't be an upgrade over CEH.
rockaction
Footballguy
I thought pass pro was irrelevant to fantasy, though? Turns out those third down checkdowns mean a lot.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Exactly! Sell Bell on today’s news.Teezee said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Last year was basically all on the Jets for most of the season. Bell ran really hard but the genius Gase mostly just ran him up the middle behind a bad line. This season it was still largely Gase but I also think Bell stopped giving max effort (But in fairness he was hurt most of this season so far).Andy Dufresne said:
Just got this email as an FBG sub. From Sigmund Bloom himself:
"The Bell to Kansas City move is good for Bell because of the culture fit with Andy Reid, who always gives players a clean slate, and chance to win a ring. It's good for the Chiefs because rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a liability in short yardage and he hadn't made the impact plays in the passing game that Damien Williams provided regularly.
"Only fantasy teams with Edwards-Helaire should be disappointed at this development, as Bell should at a minimum get goal-line work and half of the carries, but if it's clear that like Ryan Tannehill, Robby Anderson, Kenyan Drake, and Devante Parker, Bell was held back by his head coach and not his lack of ability, then Bell could be the lead back in short order.
"Some of Edwards-Helaire's struggles were because of the lack of a push by the line, but Bell's hesitation and go running style could mitigate that. Bell can also line up in the slot and run routes detached from the formation, to give the Chiefs the option of having both on the field at the same time.
"Edwards-Helaire's weekly ceiling with Bell is a semi-successful RB2 - say Devin Singletary - and his floor is a player that we only use in bye/injury/emergency situations. Bell should be an everyweek play once he's up to speed - which will be at least a week because of a wait time due to league covid regulations - and he could even level off as an RB1 if he becomes a go-to red zone and passing game option like Damien Williams was.
"Edwards-Helaire wasn't providing the impact the Chiefs had hoped for when they took him in the first round of the 2020 draft, so they wisely acted fast when Bell became available."
"The Bell to Kansas City move is good for Bell because of the culture fit with Andy Reid, who always gives players a clean slate, and chance to win a ring. It's good for the Chiefs because rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a liability in short yardage and he hadn't made the impact plays in the passing game that Damien Williams provided regularly.
"Only fantasy teams with Edwards-Helaire should be disappointed at this development, as Bell should at a minimum get goal-line work and half of the carries, but if it's clear that like Ryan Tannehill, Robby Anderson, Kenyan Drake, and Devante Parker, Bell was held back by his head coach and not his lack of ability, then Bell could be the lead back in short order.
"Some of Edwards-Helaire's struggles were because of the lack of a push by the line, but Bell's hesitation and go running style could mitigate that. Bell can also line up in the slot and run routes detached from the formation, to give the Chiefs the option of having both on the field at the same time.
"Edwards-Helaire's weekly ceiling with Bell is a semi-successful RB2 - say Devin Singletary - and his floor is a player that we only use in bye/injury/emergency situations. Bell should be an everyweek play once he's up to speed - which will be at least a week because of a wait time due to league covid regulations - and he could even level off as an RB1 if he becomes a go-to red zone and passing game option like Damien Williams was.
"Edwards-Helaire wasn't providing the impact the Chiefs had hoped for when they took him in the first round of the 2020 draft, so they wisely acted fast when Bell became available."
Stat Correction
Footballguy
Let's remember....one year deal. Bell has his pride, and will take full advantage of this high-profile opportunity. I predict a high-end RB2 for ROS. CEH would be wise to take notes.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
All of it.steelwind said:
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I used to work with a guy like that. I would usually send trade offers to him of my kicker for his stud RB, just to mock his comically bad offers. Not sure he found them funny, but I know others in the league did.
Manster
Footballguy
I drafted Bell late and hated it immediately.....dumped him for Snell when he went to IR.....never thought id have the turd on my team again....we have one week to grab a guy who comes back from IR........no brainer. Dumped Snell, picked up turd in a fancy new uni
FF is about talent, and opportunity.....Bells talent might be in question at this point, but the opportunity just went off the charts!
FF is about talent, and opportunity.....Bells talent might be in question at this point, but the opportunity just went off the charts!
Stat Correction
Footballguy
steelwind said:
Let's not forget #3 and #4, as well....the huge real-life and fantasy production of Drake and Damien Williams after emerging from the grasp of Gase. Coincidence? Not likely.....more like a trend, I would assert.
And neither one of those two can hold Bell's jockstrap.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
CGRdrJoe
Footballguy
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rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, fair enough. The comparison is pretty strained given that it's a different position.
How about what Kenyan Drake did after being free from Gase last year? (Drake hasn't been a house of fire this year, but he looks hurt to my eyes.) That's probably more of an apt comparison.
ChiefD
Footballguy
I honestly don't see Bell's value to the Chiefs is as a runner at all. Or at least minimal. Nobody is going to be able to run with the offensive line we have. Sure, you'll have a burst here and there, but they just can't run block. Or pass block very well at this point.
I think they brought him in for this reason:
Use him to help pass block and chip a rusher, then leak out into screens or be a guy as a dump off guy. Essentially create a running game not with runs per se, but with short passes and let him create in open space.
This accomplishes a couple things: it helps slow down the rush and starts bringing those safety's back up closer to the line of scrimmage. Which will then open up the deep routes that Reid likes to run. And, it should help Mahomes and discipline him a bit to actually start looking at safer routes instead of always trying for the home run ball.
As their opponents keep dropping 7 back into coverage, Reid needs to get the ball out way quicker and take some safer underneath stuff. Bell is the perfect back for this.
I think they brought him in for this reason:
Use him to help pass block and chip a rusher, then leak out into screens or be a guy as a dump off guy. Essentially create a running game not with runs per se, but with short passes and let him create in open space.
This accomplishes a couple things: it helps slow down the rush and starts bringing those safety's back up closer to the line of scrimmage. Which will then open up the deep routes that Reid likes to run. And, it should help Mahomes and discipline him a bit to actually start looking at safer routes instead of always trying for the home run ball.
As their opponents keep dropping 7 back into coverage, Reid needs to get the ball out way quicker and take some safer underneath stuff. Bell is the perfect back for this.
Still don't think it's great for the same reason- Drake actually flashed some under Gase, so more of the blame can be pointed to coaching for not using him more (although I'm not a huge Drake fan). Bell has shown absolutely nothing with the Jets, zero carries of 20+ yards. That doesn't mean he's done but it does point to at least some of this being on him, whether it's ability or effort (or both).
I wonder how many 8 man fronts KC has seen this season compared to the NYJ? It may not take much....Give Bell another second of time to pick his way into a hole and he could make a decent improvement in efficiency....Seeing less men in the box could be key to this? Bell is still really really good in the passing game, the guy has soft hands
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Stat Correction
Footballguy
Finally broke out, didn't he? Coincidence? Compounding evidence would suggest otherwise.
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Boone22
Footballguy
themeistersinger
Footballguy
Here's Christopher Harris on Bell's work so far this year - recorded before it was announced he was going to Chiefs. Generally inconclusive on what he has left. Some good, some OK, nothing terrible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XJ0mOEWbSg&feature=youtu.be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XJ0mOEWbSg&feature=youtu.be
socrates
Footballguy
I agree in most respects. However, there is the added bonus that he will be facing 4-man fronts. Teams believe they now have the blueprint to slow down Mahomes, but if teams want to drop back 7, there should be lanes for the running game, even with sub-par run blocking.
Bell will now get to run 10 times a game when defenses are expecting the pass, instead of 18 times a game when defenses are expecting the run.....and he gets to catch passes from Mahomes instead of Darnold/Flacco......He should be fresher in the 4th quarter due to less volume.....If he gets some goaline work that is great because the Jets never got to the goaline very often....His stock is up IMO
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Week 1-Can't play
Week 2-Limited packages, some RZ touches, box score of 10/48, 3/27
Week 3-Finds pay dirt, starts settling into a split back field with some extra looks in the RZ...13/60/TD, 2/27
Week 4-Starts gaining more trust from the coaches and finds some bigger holes than anything he has seen the last 2.5 years and has a big day with 15/112/2TDs
That's one way it could happen
Week 2-Limited packages, some RZ touches, box score of 10/48, 3/27
Week 3-Finds pay dirt, starts settling into a split back field with some extra looks in the RZ...13/60/TD, 2/27
Week 4-Starts gaining more trust from the coaches and finds some bigger holes than anything he has seen the last 2.5 years and has a big day with 15/112/2TDs
That's one way it could happen
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Don Hutson
Footballguy
Coaches often talk about using 2 halfbacks at the same time but it rarely ends up happening. It is far more strategic to have Bell be the only running back on the field and then line him up as a receiver or send him into motion to the line and have an empty backfield.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The main thing about being the goal line back is that your team has to get to the goal line first.
starks
Footballguy
That week two game, I think he will have some great stats. They play the Jets.
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